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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0279

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 16 21:33:24 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 162133
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162132=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-SCZ000-162330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0279
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0432 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

    Areas affected...North Carolina into portions of the Mid-Atlantic

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 162132Z - 162330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Shallow convection developing along the primary synoptic
    cold front may reach sufficient intensity for damaging to severe
    winds in the coming hours across North Carolina into the
    Mid-Atlantic. Confidence on how strong convection will be is
    limited, but trends will be monitored for potential watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Regional reflectivity imagery shows shallow convection
    developing along the primary synoptic cold front in the lee of the
    Blue Ridge Mountains across portions of western VA and central NC.
    Despite very poor buoyancy immediately downstream (owing to prior
    convective overturning), strong ascent immediately ahead of an
    ejecting mid-level vorticity maximum and within the left-exit region
    of a 120 knot 500 mb jet may provide adequate ascent immediately
    ahead of the front to support shallow convection.=20

    Regional VWPs across the Mid-Atlantic have shown an uptick in wind
    speeds upwards of 50-70 knots within the lowest kilometer. Wind
    gusts so far within the convective line have been between 35-45
    knots (roughly 40-50 mph); however, if convection can intensify
    further, damaging to severe (50-65 mph) gusts may become more
    prevalent as stronger winds aloft are mixed to the surface via
    convective downdrafts. It remains unclear how intense this
    convection can become in the coming hours - especially with the
    onset of nocturnal cooling/stabilization. Consequently, confidence
    in a severe wind threat is limited, but trends will be monitored for
    the need for watch issuance.

    ..Moore/Gleason.. 03/16/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5K8MXit3IkKBwoeCJy8azTyxKb8AQaOF39x1P1Sk2G2UWauI6dIwH4LYeAWsuPj8tvOBcNsSl= M6OVW-PO_-5FakHm0g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

    LAT...LON 34677969 35777947 36747944 37777914 38297863 38527794
    38527752 38407700 38067653 37707624 36907635 35687698
    34987755 34537854 34487907 34487950 34497962 34677969=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)