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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0278

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 16 19:19:23 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 161919
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161919=20
    NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-162115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0278
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0219 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

    Areas affected...portions of northeastern South Carolina into
    central and eastern North Carolina.

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 69...

    Valid 161919Z - 162115Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 69 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes continues across
    WW69.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, strong thunderstorms were ongoing
    within a loosely organized convective band from east-central NC to
    coastal SC. Thus far, numerous storm interactions and weak buoyancy
    (~500 J/kg MLCAPE 18z MHX Sounding) have limited storm organization.
    Numerous, but transient, low-level mesocyclones have been observed
    with embedded convective element this afternoon. Kinematics remain
    quite strong with 0-1 km shear of 40+ kts. This will continue to
    pose a risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes with any stronger
    mesocyclones able to become established.

    Some clearing as been noted to the west of the primary cluster over
    central NC. As large-scale ascent from the upper trough moves
    overhead this afternoon, additional storm development is possible
    ahead of the cold front. Storm mode is likely to remain mixed/messy
    with clusters and line segments. Still, the very strong low-level
    wind fields will support a continued risk for damaging gusts and
    tornadoes across WW69 this afternoon.

    ..Lyons.. 03/16/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-nQJqpVL27OQyudl3o9T9uD0PRPBqsC7asDz4EP9Tzh8Ql1oneaI1EUnI2zgAU3tcNmr4MKMr= ZdfIVI15f5pyZr-2Dk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

    LAT...LON 33597958 35527822 36557751 36607597 36327548 35807529
    35427531 34987570 34637633 34157739 33897775 33677806
    33317878 33207896 33147922 33207941 33597958=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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