ACUS11 KWNS 161800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161800=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-161930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Areas affected...southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 67...69...

Valid 161800Z - 161930Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 67, 69 continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest severe threat within watch 67 and the
northern portion of watch 69 will be across southeast Virginia and
northeast North Carolina over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Within a broader environment that has been mostly
convectively overturned, a more favorable zone remains across
northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Temperatures are in
the upper 60s to low 70s with dewpoints in the mid 60s. This yields
around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis. The AKQ VWP shows
around 55 knots of deep-layer shear with mid-level flow continuing
to strengthen through the afternoon.

With somewhat more favorable thermodynamics in this zone, a few
supercells capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or
two are possible.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 03/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5oKCMTk5ARSGAilB8f6Q6m9EzW5NQpDnxk5YcQ1roWlBxBGZ6SkrEYRNj4tvZC3Nr-6MwgLnE= ONxIQVVq3_kHZrNSt0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON 36507810 37007808 37607737 37637654 37217603 36687572
36207555 35937583 35927681 35927773 36087810 36507810=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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