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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0274

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 16 16:50:22 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 161650
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161649=20
    SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-161815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0274
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1149 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

    Areas affected...portions of northern Florida...southeast Georgia
    into coastal South Carolina.

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 65...

    Valid 161649Z - 161815Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 65 continues.

    SUMMARY...Ongoing convection will continue eastward with severe
    potential. WW65 is set to expire at 18z. A local extension or a
    small watch downstream may be needed given the expected ongoing
    threat for damaging gusts and tornadoes.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1645 UTC, multiple bands of convection are
    ongoing over parts of the northern Gulf Coast from northern FL into
    southern GA and southern SC. A large stratiform rain shield with
    multiple embedded convective elements will spread eastward,
    effectively limiting northward expansion of a destabilizing air mass
    to the south. Strong kinematics in place may still support some
    damaging gust and brief tornado threat with embedded convection,
    despite weak buoyancy.

    However, the primary severe risk appears to be focused on stronger
    portions of the line over the eastern FL Panhandle, and possibly
    with new development over western portions of the JAX CWA. The
    environment remains favorable for damaging gusts and tornadoes with
    1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of effective shear. Given
    this, a local extension of WW65, or a new smaller downstream watch
    are being considered to cover the expected severe risk.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 03/16/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4x0zcuYjH1RGvpR0IJGQCFnbOyaCv9_tPSlDKilqWSzbxAHT39LJHwHfY0uyvn2ua6-AjMflg= sTOoC2f1xMQd6b3baw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29258095 29088117 29018146 29038231 29148291 29998391
    30878348 32158239 32798131 32858052 32818024 32708008
    32588007 32298051 31918086 31268126 30428137 29568103
    29258095=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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