ACUS11 KWNS 161515
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161515=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-161645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0272
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern North Carolina into
coastal South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 161515Z - 161645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...South of a lifting warm front, a destabilizing air mass
will likely support several rounds of strong to severe
thunderstorms. Very strong kinematic fields will favor damaging
winds and the potential for tornadoes (some strong). A new Tornado
Watch will likely be needed by midday, though the exact timing
remains unclear.

DISCUSSION...Morning surface and satellite and surface obs show
diurnal warming and subsequent destabilization is occurring south of
a warm front lifting across parts of eastern NC, far southern VA and
across coastal SC. South of the front, temperatures warming into the
upper 60s and low 70s F with dewpoints in the 60s F will support
weak but sufficient buoyancy for numerous strong to severe storms
(500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE most likely). Very strong kinematic fields
will support a mixed convective mode, with multiple clusters, line
segments and possibly semi-discrete supercells.

Despite some uncertainty on the magnitude of the destabilization,
very strong kinematic fields are already present and likely to
intensify as a 120+ kt mid-level jet approaches this afternoon. ESRH
of 200-300 m2/s2 will support updraft rotation, and the potential
for tornadoes, especially with any semi-discrete supercells that can
be maintained. Some of the tornadoes could be strong and/or
long-tracked given storm motions exceeding 50 kts. While the exact
details and storm mode remain unclear due to multiple rounds and
numerous storm interactions, the severe risk is likely to increase
morning, signaling the need for a new Tornado Watch by midday.

..Lyons/Thompson.. 03/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7eYn00RkNU4JJtng--qPGd3HePCN3pJb7WXnrR8AdF8tXRp4bIXByxs8dTfEzcFdttTxA7exL= YJiEb-yPlTUedWjvpM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON 32597970 33308000 34597909 35397852 36107841 36237807
36197752 36127708 36037662 36007595 35977559 35857544
35637538 35607531 35187556 34917593 34477673 33817777
33417869 32597970=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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