ACUS11 KWNS 161240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161240=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-161445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Areas affected...Parts of central Virginia into central North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 161240Z - 161445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will
gradually increase into parts of central North Carolina and Virginia
through the morning into this afternoon. A watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...A remnant QLCS is emerging east of the Appalachians,
where it is showing some early signs of re-intensification. Farther
east, a disorganized band of thunderstorms is also evolving over
parts of western VA into NC. While overall convective evolution is
not clear, these storms will continue spreading eastward into a
destabilizing air mass (around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Despite the
somewhat limited buoyancy, strong low/deep-layer shear characterized
by clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (see GSO 12Z sounding) will
favor a mix of organized line segments and supercells, with a risk
of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes (some potentially
strong). A watch issuance is likely for this activity.

..Weinman/Hart.. 03/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7RS3JrzjKpwGIOCkE1j5Ro-tFIe_ZbR5xwoo9ad5P-ZY4ShtqZKq2GCVWCDyj-lD1ckOngbp1= fY_-cln8H2_kVuRU80$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35018062 36058067 37938001 38327941 38387851 38157795
37767769 37037785 35917834 35137889 34707944 34798025
35018062=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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