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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0266

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Mar 16 11:23:51 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 161123
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161123=20
    SCZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-161300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0266
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0623 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

    Areas affected...western NC and SC into central GA

    Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 63...64...

    Valid 161123Z - 161300Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm
    Watches 63, 64 continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds and some potential for embedded tornadoes
    remain possible with an eastward-moving QLCS.

    DISCUSSION...A NNE/SSW-oriented broken line has shown some recent
    signs of re-intensification as it moves east of the Appalachians.
    Here, a corridor of lower/middle 60s dewpoints is contributing to
    weakly unstable surface-based inflow for this system. Despite the
    marginal buoyancy in place, the strong low/deep-layer flow/shear
    continues to favor damaging winds. Additionally, a few deeper cores
    with mesovortex structure have recently evolved along the southern
    part of the line (where boundary-layer moisture and buoyancy are
    maximized), which could pose a risk of a brief tornado and locally
    enhanced wind damage. This risk should be highest where deep-layer
    shear is oriented oblique to the line (i.e., NNW/SSE-oriented parts
    of the line).

    ..Weinman.. 03/16/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4BsmX2e2vu9BMGohkA7x9Ph9PBTEuw-EIMVmqPR5AX1kWIcBSdzeP8pyAoUqCcTWsrp1I6ksN= OFX9fUiKQvmCXsJz9o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

    LAT...LON 35778266 36068247 36178189 36058146 35758118 35208133
    34358176 33698231 32828305 32308363 32118413 32168460
    32298491 32868457 33848355 34308329 34978289 35778266=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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