ACUS11 KWNS 161002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161001=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-161130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southern/central GA into far northern FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 161001Z - 161130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Monitoring for some increase in severe-storm potential.

DISCUSSION...Along and east of a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet
(per VWP) extending across parts of GA into SC, broad/weak positive
theta-e advection amid middle/upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and
limited inhibition is yielding widely scattered thunderstorm
development. While most of these updrafts have been shallow, a
couple isolated storms in south-central GA have shown signs of
organization and pose a risk of a tornado and locally damaging gusts
in the near term. Given low-level clockwise hodograph curvature and
the rich boundary-layer moisture, there is some potential for
additional intensification within this corridor. However, the
weak/unfocused forcing for ascent limits confidence in this
scenario, and the need for a watch is uncertain (though trends are
being monitored).

..Weinman/Hart.. 03/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7jM-S9SPwr88Thfgf3xaXdIjiCa0FZCv5V4GfgAnskRTfdPSJg0accHMTCoyc-6qkHJwnUldr= ghTUO8F4hQwqqZj60g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 30878470 31278470 32718350 33118281 33108227 32878194
32278184 31548216 31208235 30718284 30498367 30608436
30878470=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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