ACUS11 KWNS 160622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160621=20
ALZ000-160715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0261
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southwest and central Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 60...

Valid 160621Z - 160715Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 60 continues.

SUMMARY...A couple storms evolving ahead of the main squall line are
being monitored for a potential increase in severe potential.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a squall line advancing eastward across
western AL, a couple storms are evolving within a plume of weak
low-level warm advection and surface confluence. While lingering
inhibition (sampled by 04Z BMX sounding) and weak forcing for ascent
cast uncertainty on intensification of these storms -- especially
before being overtaken by the approaching QLCS -- large
clockwise-curved hodographs (around 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) and
ample buoyancy will conditionally favor intensification into a
supercell or two. If this were to occur, all severe hazards would be
possible, including tornadoes.

..Weinman.. 03/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Q1LtsXlYQuJtk-zNf3TG16kjTv5flY9qTbawHSbUgEmdoxV0weaXgZ65Fqp7o4THDNv-a0hR= 2Vg7rzI5SjYipOPeOM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31788805 32298778 33078701 33188670 33138636 32958611
32758614 32478633 31688712 31458751 31528799 31788805=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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