ACUS11 KWNS 160316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160315=20
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-160415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0257
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Indiana...western Ohio...northern Kentucky

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 160315Z - 160415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...New watch will likely be issued from eastern
Indiana/western Ohio into northern Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...Strongly forced QLCS is advancing steadily east across
IN/western KY in response to a progressive short-wave trough that is approaching this region. Boundary-layer moisture is a bit scant
downstream of this squall line with surface dew points struggling to
rise through the upper 40s to near 50F. Additionally, forecast
soundings suggest a warm layer near 3km is likely suppressing
pre-frontal convection well ahead of the squall line. With time, cooling/moistening profiles will remove this warm layer and weak
buoyancy will develop just prior to the frontal passage. This should
prove adequate for the maintenance and eastward propagation of this
linear MCS. While a tornado or two can not be ruled out due to very
strong shear, storm mode and weak buoyancy suggest damaging winds
are the primary concern.

..Darrow/Smith.. 03/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_h2sxEUmANX1WtOlk33zak_JlsQGem2IPnaocPBhpKh0I_--ybI15uWh34OV0-B5E2s5QUUvh= STpq6J0dPOY6xNp0wU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON 37998449 40028541 40408409 38238336 37998449=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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