ACUS11 KWNS 160302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160302=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-160430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Areas affected...far northwestern Alabama and south central Middle
Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 59...

Valid 160302Z - 160430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 59 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado risk increasing.

DISCUSSION...A discrete supercell has shown persistent rotation and strengthening over the last 30-45 minutes near the TN/AL state line.
A second cell has also shown persistent rotation to the north of to
the north of the TN state line. This is on the southern end of a
cluster of cells ahead of the main squall line back to the west on
the edge of the 60 F dew points. Within this region, STP around 2 is
analyzed in surface objective analysis, with VAD profiles from KBNA
and KGWX showing large low-level curvature in hodographs. This
corridor will pose a relatively higher risk for tornadoes over the
next 1-2 hours given the favorable shear and thermodynamic
environment.

..Thornton.. 03/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5o17X_lHabhMFC0ecdV9cxe9dS69oVhqE0TZ-BISSDC0w2kvrS7MXsmh6W9Xe-iCS8Z1VdCtB= qAKIcdz7nHJpqfGSVg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON 34758825 35278792 35408763 35298701 35038668 34658686
34528771 34588827 34758825=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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