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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0251

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 15 23:44:13 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 152344
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152343=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-160145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0251
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0643 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

    Areas affected...eastern Arkansas...western Kentucky...western Tennessee...northern Mississippi

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 55...

    Valid 152343Z - 160145Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 55 continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes
    continues within and downstream of WW53 into WW55.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms with embedded supercell
    structures continues eastward through eastern AR and into northern
    LA. Within the embedded supercells, occasional mesovorticies have
    been observed in radar. This line continues to move into a favorably
    unstable and strongly sheared environment across northern
    Mississippi and western Tennessee. A few semi-discrete supercells
    have developed ahead of the main line of storms moving
    north-northeast. Any discrete cell ahead of the front will pose an
    increased hail and tornado risk.=20

    The VAD profile from KNQA (Memphis, TN) shows steadily increasing
    low-level shear profiles with the strengthening low-level jet. RAP
    forecasts indicate the LLJ will continue to increase, particularly
    across northern MS into TN (around 50 kts) over the next few hours.
    The threat for damaging winds will continue with potential for an
    increase in the tornado threat as low-level shear continues to
    increase as low-level hodographs enlarge.

    ..Thornton.. 03/15/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-BJz3y3TYmC-ktRutmaIYjjG9gmFYOsqxY9NWVVobJHbzBhgvbisX9ThdcBZjumZWf-HpvilW= 6iTdnoB3ovKJt7Sq8A$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32749288 33669283 34609170 35879104 37079033 37558951
    37338829 36748767 36438771 36308785 35618809 34758868
    33578967 33059097 32739279 32749288=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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