ACUS11 KWNS 152248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152247=20
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-160015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Areas affected...Illinois and southeast Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 52...54...55...

Valid 152247Z - 160015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52, 54, 55 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe squall line is propagating steadily east this
evening. Damaging winds are expected, along with a risk for a few
tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Mature squall line is propagating east at roughly
30-35kt across central IL into southeast MO. This LEWP is likely
producing damaging winds, and several bow-head type circulations are
evident along the leading edge of the linear MCS. Air mass is not
particularly unstable, but VWX and PAH vad winds exhibit more than
300 0-3km SRH, along with strong speed shear. In addition, intense
midlevel height falls favor this strongly forced band of convection
to advance into western portions of IN shortly after 01z.

..Darrow.. 03/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_WHuf4homMHfk4ITF5unay9JBsZ2VAAJ7pAw-V8HRoMxjG58L0h630akYldz1O31MJO6e_6nr= 3LQtRTKcAlxBYGyKKc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 37569012 40508872 40218720 37528870 37569012=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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