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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0247

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 15 20:40:13 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 152040
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152039=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-152215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0247
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0339 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

    Areas affected...Arkansas...far northeast Texas...into northwestern
    Louisiana

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 53...

    Valid 152039Z - 152215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 53 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for all hazards continues across WW53. Gradual
    strengthening of ongoing going convection, and possible warm sector
    development later this afternoon should increase the severe risk
    with time.

    DISCUSSION...Across WW53, a broken band of storms has gradually
    intensified along a surging cold front across far southeastern OK
    into western AR. The environment ahead of these storms is still
    destabilizing, with temperatures warming into the upper 60s to 70s
    F, resulting in 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. So far, capping has
    remained stout, especially with southward extent, slowing storm intensification/organization. The arrival of robust mid-level ascent
    and continued surface heating will erode remaining inhibition ahead
    of the front this afternoon. Most CAM guidance shows gradual
    strengthening of the frontal convection into this evening. Given the
    strong deep-layer shear, large low-level hodographs, and sufficient
    buoyancy, a risk for all severe hazards is expected to increase.

    It remains possible, but, unclear if discrete per-frontal convection
    can develop. Should this occur, supercells with a possible higher
    tornado risk in addition to hail and damaging gusts would be
    possible. This appears most likely where low-level moisture can
    maintain dewpoints near 60 F. Given expected increase in severe
    risk, the threat continues across the entirety of WW53 this
    afternoon into this evening.

    ..Lyons.. 03/15/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!70uwCPwEuNgvjO1FI6G5LmEEd15j9scRQy7GELUks_5zpGv10L0tSMrqiHLDJgHTKgIKmefK3= FKtxpov4jmceUguL0U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

    LAT...LON 32679539 35299385 36459299 36459096 34749123 33759134
    33369143 32119253 31869316 31799341 31739381 31779481
    31899534 32679539=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)