ACUS01 KWNS 072039
SWODY1
SPC AC 072037

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF TEXAS TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR LINE PLACEMENT ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio
into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from
portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South.
Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large
hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes are
possible in the upper Ohio Valley.

...20z Update...
No major changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Main edits
with this update were to remove probabilities behind the main lines
of storms across the Northeast and from the Mid-South into the
Southern Plains.

Across the Northeast, a broken line of storms continues
northeastward, with a few leading line supercell structures ongoing.
The environment ahead of this line continues to destabilize with
daytime heating in combination with continued strong flow aloft
promoting an uptick in storm organization. See MCD#167 for more
information.

From the Ohio Valley to Mid-South the Gulf States and into the far
eastern Southern Plains, a line of storms continues southeastward
this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of
this line within the warm sector. The environment ahead of this line
is very moist and unstable. Further south, there is some
displacement from the strongest winds aloft, though deep layer shear
remains favorable. See MCD#168 for more information.

See previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 03/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026/

...Ohio Valley to Western Pennsylvania/New York...
A loosely organized linear band of currently non-strong
thunderstorms, which is effectively augmenting the cold front,
continues generally eastward at midday toward Lake Erie/central Ohio
and across northern Kentucky. Ample insolation is occurring per
visible satellite ahead of this convection across eastern portions
of Kentucky/Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, with
surface dewpoints generally climbing through the upper 50s F. This
scenario will quickly erode remaining convective inhibition, with
thunderstorms expected to increase and intensify through
mid-afternoon.

As storms develop/mature, strong cyclonically influenced flow aloft
(45+ kt effective shear) will support both supercells and well-organized/fast-moving clusters in the presence of a 40-50 kt
southwesterly low-level jet, with notable 50-65 kt winds around 3km
AGL/700 mb. These storms will be capable of scattered
severe/damaging winds as they move quickly east-northeastward across
the region. The potential also exists for line-embedded and/or
supercell tornadoes given the degree of 0-2km AGL shear/SRH. This
convection is forecast to weaken this evening as it moves into the
higher terrain of the Appalachians and encounters a much less
unstable airmass.

...Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
At late morning, extensive linear bands of convection are
principally located near the southeastward-advancing cold front from
the Mid-South/Memphis vicinity southwestward to the ArkLaTex and
central Texas, with some stronger/occasional hail-capable
post-frontal elevated convection noted across parts of the Edwards
Plateau and Low Rolling Plains. Damaging winds will remain the most
common hazard across the Mid-South/parts of Kentucky and ArkLaMiss
vicinity as convection moves/develops into a gradually destabilizing
air mass regionally.

Potential for supercells is more apparent across parts of Texas,
where steep mid-level lapse rates, greater MUCAPE, and modestly
enhanced mid/upper-level flow, and related deep-layer shear, will
support the potential for primarily large hail. This supercell hail
potential should be maximized across south-central Texas potentially
including parts of the Hill County/Brush Country toward the Rio
Grande.

$$

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