ACUS03 KWNS 040829
SWODY3
SPC AC 040828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes are
expected on Friday and Friday night across parts of the southern and
central Plains, northward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. A
severe threat is also expected over parts of Ozarks, mid Mississippi
Valley, and mid to upper Mississippi Valley from the evening into
the overnight.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower and Mid Missouri Valley...
A strong upper-level trough will move northeastward across the
central High Plains on Friday, as an associated mid-level jet
translates northeastward across the central Plains. At the surface,
a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains
and southern High Plains during the afternoon. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of
the moist sector by midday. Increasing low-level convergence along
the front, and across parts of the moist sector will result in
convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move east-northeastward
toward the instability axis, where strong low-level flow be
maximized. This will result in a substantial severe threat from late
afternoon into the evening from the southern and central Plains north-northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.

A well-defined 65 to 85 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move
across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon.
This feature will create moderate to strong deep-layer shear over
much of the moist sector, which will be favorable for severe storms.
Recent runs from the ECMWF have the position of the mid-level jet
further south during the late afternoon, which will be more
favorably timed for a severe weather event in the southern and
central Plains. Several NAM forecast soundings across southern and
central Oklahoma northeastward into southeast Kansas by early
evening have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots with 0-3 km storm relative
helicity in the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range. Low-level shear will be
strong due to a focused 850 mb jet forecast to develop over eastern
Oklahoma. This will support a threat for supercells with strong
tornadoes. In addition to the instability and shear, steep low to
mid-level lapse rates will also be in place supporting a large hail
and wind-damage threat. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter
will be possible with the more intense supercells. The potential for
supercells with tornadoes and large to very large hail will extend
as far north as the Kansas City Metro, where a secondary low-level
jet is forecast to develop early Friday evening. The severe threat
should persist from the evening into the overnight period, as
multiple supercell clusters gradually congeal into a severe line
segment.

...Ozarks/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...
Moisture advection will continue throughout the day on Friday into
the evening across the mid to Upper Mississippi Valley. During the
mid to late evening, thunderstorms will begin to spread eastward
into the region. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F, MLCAPE in the 500
to 1000 J/kg range, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be
favorable for a severe threat. Some model forecasts suggest that an
intense convective line will move eastward into the Ozarks and mid
to upper Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Under
this scenario, supercells embedded in the line would be capable of
large hail. Severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will
also be possible with the faster moving sections of the line,
especially with bowing segments.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040846
SWODY3
SPC AC 040845

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR TEXT IN SUMMARY

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes are
expected on Friday and Friday night across parts of the southern and
central Plains, northward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. A
severe threat is also expected over parts of Ozarks, and in the mid
to upper Mississippi Valley from the evening into the overnight.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower and Mid Missouri Valley...
A strong upper-level trough will move northeastward across the
central High Plains on Friday, as an associated mid-level jet
translates northeastward across the central Plains. At the surface,
a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains
and southern High Plains during the afternoon. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over much of
the moist sector by midday. Increasing low-level convergence along
the front, and across parts of the moist sector will result in
convective initiation during the mid to late afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move east-northeastward
toward the instability axis, where strong low-level flow be
maximized. This will result in a substantial severe threat from late
afternoon into the evening from the southern and central Plains north-northeastward into the lower to mid Missouri Valley.

A well-defined 65 to 85 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move
across the southern and central High Plains during the afternoon.
This feature will create moderate to strong deep-layer shear over
much of the moist sector, which will be favorable for severe storms.
Recent runs from the ECMWF have the position of the mid-level jet
further south during the late afternoon, which will be more
favorably timed for a severe weather event in the southern and
central Plains. Several NAM forecast soundings across southern and
central Oklahoma northeastward into southeast Kansas by early
evening have 0-6 km shear around 50 knots with 0-3 km storm relative
helicity in the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range. Low-level shear will be
strong due to a focused 850 mb jet forecast to develop over eastern
Oklahoma. This will support a threat for supercells with strong
tornadoes. In addition to the instability and shear, steep low to
mid-level lapse rates will also be in place supporting a large hail
and wind-damage threat. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter
will be possible with the more intense supercells. The potential for
supercells with tornadoes and large to very large hail will extend
as far north as the Kansas City Metro, where a secondary low-level
jet is forecast to develop early Friday evening. The severe threat
should persist from the evening into the overnight period, as
multiple supercell clusters gradually congeal into a severe line
segment.

...Ozarks/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...
Moisture advection will continue throughout the day on Friday into
the evening across the mid to Upper Mississippi Valley. During the
mid to late evening, thunderstorms will begin to spread eastward
into the region. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F, MLCAPE in the 500
to 1000 J/kg range, and moderate to strong deep-layer shear will be
favorable for a severe threat. Some model forecasts suggest that an
intense convective line will move eastward into the Ozarks and mid
to upper Mississippi Valley during the mid to late evening. Under
this scenario, supercells embedded in the line would be capable of
large hail. Severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will
also be possible with the faster moving sections of the line,
especially with bowing segments.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041927
SWODY3
SPC AC 041926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KS/OK TO WESTERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
Friday through Friday night from portions of the central/southern
Great Plains to the Midwest. The most probable corridor for
tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail is across eastern portions
of Kansas and Oklahoma to western Missouri.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper trough over the West should split into two distinct
impulses by Friday night. Leading shortwave trough should eject from
the Four Corners across the central Great Plains to the Upper
Mississippi Valley, while a backside cutoff low evolves over the
Lower CO Valley. Lead cyclone should track from western KS vicinity
across IA to the central Great Lakes. The dryline should mix towards
central OK/TX through late afternoon. A surface cold front will
accelerate southeastward across the central/southern Great Plains on
the backside of the lead cyclone.

...Central/southern Great Plains into the Midwest...
Most appreciable change this outlook has been to flatten the
previously tight gradient to severe probabilities over the Great
Plains. The splitting of the broad western trough and positive-tilt
of the leading shortwave impulse suggests that surface features on
Friday afternoon should lag westward compared to the typically
overmixed GFS. Initial storm development should occur across central
KS near the triple-point mesolow by mid to late afternoon. Expanding
convective coverage is anticipated to the northeast into IA/MO and
south into at least northern OK. Available D3 CAM guidance is much
less robust than parameterized models with the degree of convective
development through early evening towards the Red River and
southward into central TX. With near-neutral mid-level height falls,
it is plausible that convection south of the latitudinally compact
mid-level jetlet will remain isolated. This lowers confidence in the
southern extent of highlighted level 3-ENH risk across most of OK.

Across eastern KS, northern OK, and western Missouri, initial
supercells will probably grow upscale into a broader QLCS during the
evening, with semi-discrete activity favored along the southern
flank. Strengthening 850-700 mb southwesterlies suggest damaging
wind and QLCS tornado potential could persist across the Mid-MS
Valley towards the Lake MI vicinity overnight in a weak MLCAPE/high
shear environment. Available CAM guidance does indicate a general
alignment of QLCS with the deep-layer shear vector, suggesting of a
sporadic severe threat mainly where embedded bowing segments/surges
can develop.

Farther south, storm development will become increasingly probable
as the accelerating cold front overtakes and merges with the front
on Friday night. Outside of frontal convergence and low-level warm
advection atop the undercutting front in western TX, large-scale
ascent should remain nebulous. Large hail may accompany initial
updrafts, with severe wind/tornado potential nocturnally limited.

..Grams.. 03/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050829
SWODY3
SPC AC 050828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN AND IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible on Saturday from the Texas Coastal
Plain into western Louisiana, and in the Ohio Valley/Lower Great
Lakes. Wind damage will be the primary threat, except in parts of
Texas where isolated large hail could also occur. A marginal severe
threat will also be possible across the Southeast and Tennessee
Valley.

...Texas Coastal Plain/Western Louisiana...
Mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be in place from the
south-central U.S. to the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. At the
surface, a cold front will move southeastward into the Texas Coastal
Plains and Ark-La-Tex by afternoon. Surface dewpoints ahead of the
front will be in the 60s F, contributing to moderate instability by
midday. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the front early in
the day and steadily increase in coverage. A large complex of storms
is forecast to move southeastward across the Texas Coastal Plain and
the Sabine River Valley during the afternoon and evening. Model
forecasts suggest that 0-6 km shear will generally range from 30 to
35 knots, and that lapse rates will be steep in the low-levels. This
should be favorable for a wind-damage threat with intense line
segments that form ahead of the front. A few supercells with large
hail and wind damage may also develop further southwest into the
southern Texas Hill Country, where forecast soundings have stronger
deep-layer shear. During the evening, the severe threat should move
offshore from the middle and upper Texas into the Gulf.

...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Southern and Central Appalachians...
At mid-levels on Saturday, a shortwave trough will move eastward
across the north-central U.S., as an associated jet streak
translates through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a front will
advance eastward across the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Ahead
of the front, surface dewpoints will range from the 60s F in the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, to the 50s F in the southern and central Appalachians. Weak instability is forecast to develop in most areas
ahead of the front by afternoon. Forecast soundings in the upper
Ohio Valley show very strong wind fields, with 30 to 40 knots of
southwesterly flow just above the surface. This will contribute to a wind-damage threat with short line segments that form ahead of the
front in the afternoon. The greatest wind-damage threat will likely
be in the late afternoon as a low-level jet consolidates and
strengthens across the upper Ohio Valley.

..Broyles.. 03/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051929
SWODY3
SPC AC 051928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TX TO LOWER
MS VALLEY AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from
Saturday morning into the evening across a broad swath of the
southern Great Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large
hail may occur in parts of Texas.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough consisting of multiple embedded shortwave impulses
will move east from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes. A closed
low over the Lower CO Valley will further retrograde to west of Baja
CA. A surface cyclone over eastern Upper MI at 12Z Saturday will
deepen as it rapidly progresses into QC. A full-latitude cold front
will arc southwestward, crossing the eastern Great Lakes and Midwest
on Saturday. The trailing portion will slow its southern movement
over TX and likely be modulated by convective outflows.

...TX to the Lower MS Valley...
Primary changes are to add a CIG1 area for very large hail potential
in TX, and shift/expand the cat 2-SLGT risk north-northeast per
latest guidance.

While TX will largely remain within a flat to low-amplitude
mid-level ridge between the aforementioned troughs/lows well to its
north and west, seasonably rich low-level moisture atop an
undercutting cold front should support regenerative convection
through much of the period. With the west-southwesterly mid-level
flow regime, steep mid-level lapse rates will be maintained over the pre-convective warm sector. Low-level flow will become increasingly
weak and diffluent, yielding a favorable deep-layer wind profile for
hail growth. Primary uncertainty is the degree of surface-based
development towards late afternoon/early evening along the composite front/outflow. Current indications are that CIG2-type giant hail
potential might evolve with more discrete/isolated convection in the south-central TX vicinity. For now, will incrementally add a CIG1
and defer to later outlooks for a possible categorical upgrade.

Farther east-northeast across the Lower MS Valley, clusters may be consolidating into line segments by mid-late morning Saturday. These
may yield an increase in mainly damaging wind and brief tornado
potential as the warm/moist sector destabilizes downstream. An
extensive swath of widespread convection is anticipated during the
afternoon. But this should become increasingly aligned with the
deep-layer shear vector. In conjunction with decreasing low-level
hodograph curvature, setup may only favor sporadic damaging winds
before storm intensities wane after sunset.

...OH Valley to the Lower Great Lakes...
No adjustment has been made to the level 2-SLGT risk area. At least
scattered convection should be ongoing upstream over parts of the
Midwest and Mid-South along/ahead of the aforementioned cold front.
This activity may not entirely decay, with renewed storm development
possible along the large-scale outflow that will probably remain
displaced appreciably east of the front. Where adequate insolation
can occur amid steep mid-level lapse rates, an uptick in storm
intensity should occur midday into the afternoon. Overall amplitudes
still seem to favor non-significant severe, but a scattering of
damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated marginally severe
hail all appear plausible. These threats should wane after sunset
and with eastern extent towards the Appalachians.

..Grams.. 03/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060801
SWODY3
SPC AC 060800

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms potential is low on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

A lower-amplitude upper-level pattern defined by westerly flow aloft
east of the Rockies will overspread the central and eastern U.S. on
Sunday. Meanwhile, an upper low will persist offshore from Baja CA.
At the surface, a cold front will move offshore the Northeast coast
by late afternoon. The southern extension of this boundary will
stall from the Mid-Atlantic into the TN Valley. Meanwhile, the
western portion of the boundary across eastern and southern TX will
lift northward late in the period. Gulf moisture will remain in
place across the southeast U.S. into TX, but limited large-scale
ascent and lack of height falls within the quasi-zonal regime will
limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorms may be
ongoing across parts of the Lower MS Valley along remnant outflow
from the Day 2/Sat period. The warm advection regime across TX also
may support isolated thunderstorms through the period. Overall,
severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061915
SWODY3
SPC AC 061914

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CAROLINAS
TO SOUTHEAST VA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday
afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia.

...Synopsis...
A lead shortwave impulse will quickly progress east from the Saint
Lawrence Valley, as a backside shortwave trough rapidly moves from
the Upper Great Lakes across New England by Sunday night. Surface
front trailing southwest from the lead impulse will push off the
coastal Mid-Atlantic by Sunday afternoon, with frontolysis occurring
over the Southeast during the evening/night.

...Carolinas and southeast VA...
The northern extent of the surface-based warm sector should overlap
the southern extent of strong mid-level westerlies atop the trailing
cold front. Guidance consensus suggests weak buoyancy should develop
by midday/early afternoon across the Southeast Atlantic Coastal
Plain and adjacent Piedmont. Both the 12Z NAM and ECMWF depict
modestly steep mid-level lapse rates may be present near the
mid-level jetlet across VA. Bulk of guidance indicates isolated to
scattered storm development off the Piedmont to coastal plain
through the afternoon into early evening, before convergence along
the front wanes. While low-level shear should be weak, favorable mid
to upper-level speed shear could support a few cells with transient
mid-level rotation. Isolated severe storms with marginal hail/wind
magnitudes seem plausible. This scenario is supported by at least 5
percent total severe probs in the 12Z SPC-GEFS, along with the 00Z
NSSL-GEFS and both NCAR-ECENS ML products.

..Grams.. 03/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070720
SWODY3
SPC AC 070719

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS INTO MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from
northeast Texas into Mississippi.

...ArkLaTex to Mississippi...

An upper low over northwest Mexico will begin to migrate east toward
the southern Rockies/northern Mexico on Monday. Ahead of this
feature, a subtle upper shortwave impulse will move from the
southern Plains to the Southeast. This will allow enhanced
west/southwesterly flow to overspread a moistening boundary layer
across the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-South and TN Valley.
Large-scale ascent will remain subtle. However, forecast guidance
suggests sufficiently steep lapse rates will be present to support
at least modest destabilization. Favorable deep shear also should
support organized updrafts if enough destabilization occurs within
the warm advection regime. Given modest forcing mechanisms, storm
coverage is uncertain. However, the overall environment should be at
least conditionally favorable for a few strong to severe storms
through Monday afternoon/evening across portions of the ArkLaTex
into MS.

..Leitman.. 03/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071932
SWODY3
SPC AC 071931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the
Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley...
To the south of the primary belt of midlevel westerlies extending
across the northern CONUS, a low-amplitude impulse and accompanying
speed max will overspread the lower MS Valley during the afternoon.
Here, steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread deep/rich
boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper 60s dewpoints). This should
yield weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy by the afternoon.
Given the low-amplitude nature of the midlevel wave and lack of any
substantial low-level fronts, thunderstorm coverage remains
uncertain. However, around 50 kt of deep-layer shear and sufficient surface-based buoyancy will favor organized storms to include the
potential for supercells. The primary concern with any stronger
storms that can develop will be large hail and damaging gusts,
though some tornado risk is also possible. A corridor of greater
severe potential is possible (depending on the degree of diurnal
heating and mesoscale ascent), though confidence for an upgrade is
too low at this time.

..Weinman.. 03/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080832
SWODY3
SPC AC 080831

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday
from the southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley
vicinity. All severe hazards are possible.

...Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity...

A complex scenario is expected to unfold on Monday and Monday night
across a broad warm sector from the southern Plains into the Mid-MS
Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity. An initially split-flow upper
level pattern will see an upper low and attendant trough over
northwest Mexico lift northeast across the southern Rockies into the
adjacent High Plains. As this occurs, a northern stream upper trough
will deepen over the northern/central Plains, with the two systems
merging by the end of the period. This will result in substantial
mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming across the area atop strong
low-level warm advection. A broad warm sector with surface dewpoints
in the 60s F will encompass much of OK/TX/eastern KS eastward into
the Mid/Lower MS Valley and Lower OH/TN Valleys. Two areas of
deepening surface low pressure are forecast -- one across the OK/TX
Panhandle vicinity, the other across northwest MO into IA. A dryline
will extend southward from the Plains low, and a warm front will
extend west to east from southern IA into northern IL/IN during the
afternoon. After 00z, a cold front will develop southeast, becoming
positioned from southern Lake Michigan southwest to central OK.
There is some uncertainty in the position of these surface features,
but this appears to be the best estimate at this time based on
various guidance.

Some uncertainty also exists with regards to capping, particularly
across OK into parts of MO. Nevertheless, strong vertical shear atop
a very moist warm and moderately unstable airmass should support
scattered to possibly widespread severe thunderstorms. Supercell
wind profiles will support large to very large hail where discrete
convection occurs. Linear forcing along surface boundaries also may
favor linear segments, especially after dark. Tornado potential may
be maximized near the surface warm front/triple point across parts
of MO/IL and far southeast IA. Outlook areas may change some in the
coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.

..Leitman.. 03/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081004
SWODY3
SPC AC 081003

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY OF THE WEEK REFERENCES

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
from the southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley
vicinity. All severe hazards are possible.

...Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity...

A complex scenario is expected to unfold on Tuesday and Tuesday
night across a broad warm sector from the southern Plains into the
Mid-MS Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity. An initially split-flow
upper level pattern will see an upper low and attendant trough over
northwest Mexico lift northeast across the southern Rockies into the
adjacent High Plains. As this occurs, a northern stream upper trough
will deepen over the northern/central Plains, with the two systems
merging by the end of the period. This will result in substantial
mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming across the area atop strong
low-level warm advection. A broad warm sector with surface dewpoints
in the 60s F will encompass much of OK/TX/eastern KS eastward into
the Mid/Lower MS Valley and Lower OH/TN Valleys. Two areas of
deepening surface low pressure are forecast -- one across the OK/TX
Panhandle vicinity, the other across northwest MO into IA. A dryline
will extend southward from the Plains low, and a warm front will
extend west to east from southern IA into northern IL/IN during the
afternoon. After 00z, a cold front will develop southeast, becoming
positioned from southern Lake Michigan southwest to central OK.
There is some uncertainty in the position of these surface features,
but this appears to be the best estimate at this time based on
various guidance.

Some uncertainty also exists with regards to capping, particularly
across OK into parts of MO. Nevertheless, strong vertical shear atop
a very moist warm and moderately unstable airmass should support
scattered to possibly widespread severe thunderstorms. Supercell
wind profiles will support large to very large hail where discrete
convection occurs. Linear forcing along surface boundaries also may
favor linear segments, especially after dark. Tornado potential may
be maximized near the surface warm front/triple point across parts
of MO/IL and far southeast IA. Outlook areas may change some in the
coming days as mesoscale details become better resolved.

..Leitman.. 03/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081933
SWODY3
SPC AC 081933

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the
southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe
hazards are possible.

...Synopsis...
A robust low-latitude midlevel trough will move eastward across
northern MX and the Southwest to the southern Plains through the
period. At the same time, a broad northern-stream midlevel trough
will gradually amplify as it advances eastward across the northern
Plains into the upper MS Valley. In the low-levels, a
quasi-stationary warm front will extend eastward into the southern
Great Lakes vicinity from a weak surface low over the middle MS
Valley. Farther south, a separate surface low will evolve over the
central High Plains, while a dryline extends southward before being
overtaken by a cold front. Along and east of these features, a
broad/expansive warm sector characterized by middle/upper 60s
dewpoints will encompass the southern/central Plains into the middle
MS Valley and southern Great Lakes region. While this large-scale
pattern should favor at least scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of all hazards across a broad area, the split-flow nature of the
pattern limits confidence in the details.

...Middle MS Valley and southern Great Lakes...
Along and south of the quasi-stationary warm front, a low-level jet
will gradually strengthen into the evening/overnight hours,
resulting in large clockwise-curved hodographs. Given ample
moisture/buoyancy, supercell clusters will be the primary concern,
with an accompanying risk of damaging winds, a few tornadoes (some
possibly strong) and severe hail. Given a substantial westerly
component to the deep-layer flow/shear, any established storms that
evolve over the middle MS Valley region may continue to pose a
tornado risk into the southern Great Lakes region during the
overnight hours, though confidence in this scenario is currently
low.

...Southern Plains...
Severe thunderstorms are expected along/east of the dryline in the
southern Plains, where ample deep-layer shear and surface-based
buoyancy will support a mix of organized clusters and supercells
capable of all hazards. Eventually, linear forcing along the front
should promote upscale growth, when the severe-wind and tornado risk
may increase into central TX. A separate corridor of severe
potential is possible across north-central into southern OK, where
the potential for semi-discrete supercells is evident.

..Weinman.. 03/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090721
SWODY3
SPC AC 090720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday
from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through
the Ohio Valley vicinity.

...East Texas northeast to the Ohio Valley vicinity...

A split-flow regime will continue into Wednesday, with upper
troughing over the central U.S. remaining bifurcated through much of
the period. In the southern branch, a closed low/upper shortwave
trough will migrate from TX to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, the
northern stream upper trough over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest
will develop east across the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest. Ahead of
these features, strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will extend
from east TX into the Mid-Atlantic/New England. At the surface, a
cold front will extend southwest from a surface low over southern
Lower MI into western OK. This front will advance southeast through
the period, becoming oriented from the Mid-Atlantic coast to the
central Gulf coast by Thursday morning.

Strong warm advection ahead of the front will transport Gulf
moisture as far north as the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.
Ongoing convection is expected ahead of the front across portions of
the ArkLaTex into the Midwest. This, along with the warm advection
regime resulting in widespread cloudiness, lends to uncertainty in
how the downstream airmass will destabilize, especially with
northeast extent into parts of the Ohio Valley vicinity. Somewhat
stronger destabilization is likely across the Lower MS Valley where
richer Gulf moisture will reside. Strong vertical wind profiles will
support damaging wind potential with even modest instability. Linear
convection is the most likely storm mode given deep-layer flow
parallel to the surface boundary and strong large-scale ascent
overspreading the boundary. If discrete cells can form, some tornado
potential will exist closer to a deepening surface cyclone in the
vicinity of the upper Ohio Valley, and perhaps near a secondary
surface low over the lower MS Valley, though this scenario remains
highly uncertain.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091926
SWODY3
SPC AC 091925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday
from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through
the Ohio Valley vicinity.

...Synopsis...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are probable across an expansive warm
sector stretching from the Gulf Coast northward into the upper Ohio
Valley region. The amplification of an upper wave over the northern
CONUS will support steady intensification of a surface cyclone as it
migrates from the Great Lakes region into southeast Quebec by 12 UTC
Thursday. An attendant cold front will push across the MS Valley
into the upper OH Valley and Southeast states during the forecast
period, and will act as the primary foci for thunderstorm
development.

...East Texas into the Lower MS Valley...
Thunderstorm clusters and/or convective bands will likely be
ongoing, albeit weakening, across the eastern TX/OK at the start of
the forecast period. A combination of daytime heating, ascent ahead
of a southern-stream upper trough, and forcing along the approaching
cold front should promote an uptick in convective intensity and
coverage by late morning/early afternoon across LA and MS.
Storm-motion vectors largely along the front will maintain a linear
storm mode and support primarily a severe wind threat. The severe
threat may be maximized during the late morning/early afternoon
hours as buoyancy increases but before low to mid-level flow
decreases as the synoptic low accelerates away to the northeast.

...OH Valley...
Low-level moisture and a remnant EML will continue to spread
north/northeast in tandem with the translation of the surface low.
This should support adequate buoyancy within a narrow, but
migratory, warm sector for surface-based convection. Strong flow in
proximity to the surface low/upper jet will promote organized
convection along the front, most likely organized clusters and lines
capable of severe gusts and perhaps embedded circulations. Recent extended-range RRFS solutions hint at the development of pre-frontal
supercells within a diffuse plume of low-level theta-e advection
across the upper OH Valley. Forecast soundings from this region
suggest that tornadic supercells are possible. Other guidance also
depicts this plume of theta-e advection, which lends some credence
to this scenario. However, the RRFS is typically overly aggressive
with convective intensity, and recent MPAS solutions are less
bullish on deep convection ahead of the front where mostly cloudy
skies should limit diurnal insolation to some degree. This
uncertainty precludes the introduction of higher risk probabilities,
but trends will be monitored for a more robust severe threat within
this regime.

..Moore.. 03/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100638
SWODY3
SPC AC 100638

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will pivot east across the eastern U.S. on Thursday.
A surface low located over New England will lift northeast into the
Canadian Maritimes, while a trailing surface cold front moves across
the Eastern Seaboard and Southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will
be ongoing along the front Thursday morning. While a moist airmass
will exist ahead of this activity across the Southeast into the
eastern Carolinas, limited heating and poor lapse rates will
preclude stronger destabilization (MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg
expected). This should largely limit severe potential ahead of the
front. The front should move offshore the Carolinas and northern FL
into the central Gulf by mid to late afternoon. Some thunderstorm
potential will persist across the FL Peninsula, but severe storms
are not expected.

..Leitman.. 03/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101913
SWODY3
SPC AC 101912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
An amplifying upper wave will continue to translate eastward across
the eastern CONUS through the day Thursday before moving off the
Atlantic Coast by late evening. At the surface, an attendant cyclone
will continue to drift north/northeast into eastern Quebec as it
begins to occlude. A trailing cold front will start the forecast
period draped from the Northeast into the Southeast states, and is
forecast to gradually shift east through the day before moving off
the East Coast and stalling across the FL peninsula as broad-scale
ascent weakens. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the front
at the start of the period across portions of southeastern AL,
western GA, and the FL Panhandle. Lingering 40-50 knot mid-level
flow may support a few organized thunderstorms during the morning
hours - mainly along the I-10 corridor. However, it is unclear how
intense this activity will be given linear/clustered storm modes and
a marginal thermodynamic environment during the diurnal buoyancy
minimum. Regardless, steady weakening is anticipated through the day
as convection drifts into an environment with decreasing mid-level
lapse rates and diminishing forcing for ascent.

Across the northern High Plains, cold mid-level temperatures
associated with a clipper low may support pockets of sufficient
instability for lightning production. Steep low-level lapse rates
and strong flow within the lowest kilometer may support a few
stronger gusts, but the overall thermodynamic environment appears
too limited for risk probabilities at this time.

..Moore.. 03/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110645
SWODY3
SPC AC 110644

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...

Broad upper troughing will persist over much of the U.S. on Friday.
At the surface, a cold frontal intrusion into the Gulf of America
will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies,
and a cool/dry/stable airmass will be in place. The exception will
be across south FL where a seasonally moist boundary layer will
persist south of the diffuse surface boundary. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Peninsula.
However, modest vertical shear, poor lapse rates, and a lack of
large-scale ascent will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 03/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111918
SWODY3
SPC AC 111917

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A cold front currently pushing across the Ohio Valley and lower MS
Valley will migrate off the East Coast and down the FL peninsula
through Thursday before stalling over southern FL early Friday
morning. A dry/cool air mass overspreading much of the CONUS in the
wake of this front will mitigate thunderstorm potential for most
areas aside from the southern FL peninsula. Although lapse rates
will be very marginal, rich low-level moisture coupled with
negligible capping should yield a thermodynamic environment
supportive of deep convection. 20-30 knot flow above 6 km may
support some degree of storm organization, but very weak low-level winds/convergence should generally limit storm coverage and modulate
overall convective intensity.

..Moore.. 03/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120642
SWODY3
SPC AC 120641

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

A potent upper trough will dig southward across the Rockies on
Saturday, emerging over the northern Plains to southern Rockies by
Sunday morning. In response to sharp height falls, a deepening
surface cyclone over the central High Plains will develop eastward
through the period, becoming oriented over the Lower MO Valley
Sunday morning. A prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf will
result in only modest moisture return northward across the
south-central U.S., with any deeper boundary-layer moisture
remaining mostly offshore, and across south TX. Given this dry
airmass ahead of the surface low and associated trailing cold front
moving across the Plains, little instability is forecast and
thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday across much of the
warm sector over the south-central U.S.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south FL where a
seasonally warm/moist and unstable airmass will reside. Large-scale
ascent will remain nebulous, but isolated thunderstorms could
develop along the sea breeze across the southwest Peninsula. Weak
vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude severe
thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 03/12/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121915
SWODY3
SPC AC 121914

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
Zonal upper-level flow over the CONUS early Saturday will give way
to amplification of an upper trough late Saturday and into Sunday
over the Plains. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated as a surface low
deepens within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet and
migrates from eastern WY into the eastern Plains. Increasing
southerly winds will advect moisture northward into the southern
Plains through the forecast period, but in the wake of the recent
frontal passage, moisture return will likely be insufficient to
overcome stout capping at the base of an expansive EML. Sporadic
lightning flashes appear possible within the warm advection branch
of the intensifying cyclone, but forecast soundings show poor
agreement with regards to the availability of MUCAPE. Thunderstorms
are most probable across south Florida and along the eastern FL, GA,
and SC coasts. While displaced from the strengthening low over the
Plains, southerly winds will support a weak warm advection regime
within a moist, buoyant, and uncapped environment. Diffuse forcing
for ascent and poor flow aloft should limit the potential for severe thunderstorms.

..Moore.. 03/12/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130727
SWODY3
SPC AC 130726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for a widespread damaging wind event along with a few
tornadoes exists from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from
northeast Texas to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest threat
appears to be from northeast Arkansas into Indiana during the
evening and overnight hours.

...Discussion...
On Sunday, a powerful upper trough will move across the Plains
during the day, with a strong midlevel speed max nosing into MO by
00Z. Shortly thereafter and over the next 12 hours, the trough will
rapidly deepen, with an intense mid and high level jet developing
across AR, MO, IL and IN.

At the surface, low pressure is forecast to move across northern MO
and into IL, with a prominent cold front extending southwestward
across MO western AR, and northeast TX. Low-level moisture quality
will gradually improve throughout the period, with mid 50s F into
southern MO by 00Z and as far north as IN and OH by 12Z Monday
morning.

Initial activity will occur along the cold front during the late
afternoon where instability will be strongest, perhaps as high as
1000 J/kg from AR into TX. It should be noted that substantial
variability exists among models regarding instability and capping,
though strong ascent near the front should mitigate these factors.
Hail and damaging gusts may occur with the late afternoon activity.

Of greatest concern is potential for a severe squall line capable of
widespread wind damage, along with a few tornadoes, developing
during the evening across northeast AR, southeast MO, much of
southern IL, central and southern IN, western KY and TN. The shear
environment will be rapidly increasing during this time, and while
forecast soundings show low levels of instability, it will be more
than sufficient to sustain a strongly forced QLCS, producing
corridors of significant wind damage and a few embedded tornadoes.
Southerly winds at 850 mb along the front may exceed 70 kt, with a
very strong frontal surge out of the west.

The envelope of greatest threat will likely shift in later outlooks
as the event nears and predictability increases.

..Jewell.. 03/13/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131933
SWODY3
SPC AC 131932

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY....

...SUMMARY...
A widespread damaging wind event with some tornado threat is likely
on late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas
to southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest wind threat appears to be
from northeast Arkansas/western Tennessee to southern Indiana during
the evening and overnight hours.

...Synopsis...
A 100+ knot mid-level jet will lead to rapid amplification as it
rounds the base of the mid-level trough across the Central Plains on
Sunday. As the associated surface cyclone moves northeastward
through the day, strong low-level moisture transport will occur
across the warm sector. This will result in weak to potentially
moderate instability ahead of the cold front Sunday afternoon. This
cold front will accelerate east-southeastward from the Midwest to
the Mid-Mississippi Valley during the afternoon and from Ohio to
western Georgia/eastern Alabama by Monday morning.

....Ohio Valley...
Despite dewpoints only increasing to the mid to upper 50s, a very
favorable kinematic environment will be in place with a 70 knot
low-level jet and nearly 125 knot mid-level jet by Monday morning.
Given this wind field, any instability, combined with the strong
frontal forcing, will be sufficient for a powerful QLCS during the
evening and overnight hours. This squall line will likely have
widespread 60+ mph wind gusts with some stronger 75+ mph wind gusts
possible.

In addition, very long hodographs with 200+ m2/s2 0-500m SRH will
support a threat for line-embedded tornadoes, some of which could be
strong. Additionally, the strong shear may also allow for some
embedded supercells, also depicted by the 12Z RRFS, which also may
lead to a locally greater tornado threat. Pre-frontal development
cannot be ruled out, especially from northeast Arkansas to southern
Illinois at the nose of the 500mb jet and the northern extent of the
richer low-level moisture. This scenario is more uncertain, but
could pose a greater tornado threat if it were to materialize.

...Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast...
The squall line will form during the afternoon, perhaps with some
initial supercell/hail threat across Arkansas and northeast Texas
and then move northeastward through the overnight period. The
strongest low-mid level wind field will remain north of this region,
however, greater instability will compensate and should maintain the
damaging squall line through the overnight hours. The greatest STP
values within the entire risk area are forecast (by the 12Z NAM)
between 03Z and 12Z from western Tennessee to central Mississippi
and northwest Alabama. Therefore, expect a QLCS tornado threat to
accompany the damaging wind threat through the overnight and early
morning period.

...FL/AL Coast...
Toward the end of the period, richer low-level moisture will begin
to move inland across the FL Panhandle into southern Alabama. Within
this zone, discrete convection may develop after 08Z. If this were
to occur, strong shear would support supercells capable of
tornadoes.

..Bentley.. 03/13/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140727
SWODY3
SPC AC 140726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE CAROLINAS...VIRGINIA...AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are forecast on
Monday for parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast.

...Discussion...
A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out
of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong wind
fields aloft. A surface low move from Lower MI into southern Quebec,
with a deep pre-frontal trough extending southward across eastern
PA, VA, and NC by around 21Z. Ahead of this trough/front, southerly
winds will bring 60s F dewpoints as far north as southeast PA.

Storms will likely be ongoing along the length of the cold front,
roughly from OH to the FL Panhandle Monday morning. Given the
uncapped air mass over the Carolinas, a few storms, possibly
supercells, may develop relatively early in the day as well, with
tornado potential. The greatest threat however will be during the
afternoon as cold front nears, and pressure falls are maximized
along with daytime heating. A few supercells ahead of the line will
be possible, along with embedded circulations and/significant
damaging winds within the squall line.

There are model differences regarding the speed/position of the cold
front, as well as the degree of instability. Regardless, damaging
winds over a large area appear likely, along with at least a few
tornadoes. Depending on the degree of destabilization, a strong
tornado or two may occur especially over parts of the Carolinas and
Virginia during the late afternoon. Many models forecast 300-500
m2/s2 SRH, along with pockets of SBCAPE over 1000 J/kg, which is
clearly favorable for tornadic supercells.

..Jewell.. 03/14/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141939
SWODY3
SPC AC 141938

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SC TO
SOUTHERN PA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to widespread severe storms are likely on Monday for parts
of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. The greatest potential for
strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds appears centered on
parts of South Carolina to Maryland during the late morning to
afternoon.

...Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...
Primary changes this outlook are to add a 45 total severe
probability along with minor northeast and southeast expansion to
the categorical risk areas. Portions of the region, centered on SC
to MD, may warrant an upgrade to a level 4/Moderate Risk in later
outlooks.

A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out
of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong to
intense wind fields aloft. A deep cyclone will move from Lower MI
into QC, with an occluding cold front arcing southeast across the
northern Appalachians, then south-southwest into the northern Gulf.
This front will clear all but the FL Peninsula by Monday evening.

Ahead of the front, seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized
by 60s surface dew points will spread northward from the eastern
Gulf/western Atlantic. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z
Monday, low-topped along the Upper OH Valley to central Appalachian
portion of the front to deep convection in the lee of the southern
Appalachians to eastern FL Panhandle. A diurnal uptick in storm
intensity, including potential for semi-discrete supercells ahead of
the front, should occur from north FL to the Carolina Piedmont.
Further intensification is anticipated midday into the afternoon as
a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy likely develops just ahead
of morning storms.

Enlarged low-level hodograph curvature, in conjunction with
favorable elongation of the mid/upper hodograph, should foster a mix
of broken supercells south with line-embedded supercells in the
reinvigorated QLCS north. With such intense 700-mb flow aptly timed
with the diurnal heating cycle overlying rich low-level moisture,
setup could yield an expansive severe weather day, including strong
tornadoes and significant damaging winds. The degree of
boundary-layer heating, as well as timing of convection that may
outpace the front late D2 into early D3, will play key roles in how
intense severe magnitudes may become. At present, the most likely
corridor for significant/widespread severe appears centered on the
eastern Piedmont to coastal plain from SC to MD around midday into
the afternoon.

..Grams.. 03/14/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150705
SWODY3
SPC AC 150704

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the
Northeast, with an upper ridge building over the southwestern US. A
cold front associated with the upper trough will be well offshore
over the Atlantic, though the tail end will clip far southern FL
early in the morning. A band of moisture and perhaps weak elevated
instability may persist well north of this front over southern FL,
with scattered weak convection possible.

..Jewell.. 03/15/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 151855
SWODY3
SPC AC 151854

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunder potential appears negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
With a continental air mass enveloping the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts
by Tuesday morning, thunder potential will become negligible.
Isolated convection might linger near the extreme southern FL
Peninsula and Keys just beyond 12Z Tuesday as the front reaches the
Straits. Thunder probabilities over land appear to be around 10
percent through 15Z.

Elsewhere, conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing
convection through the period.

..Grams.. 03/15/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 160549
SWODY3
SPC AC 160548

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, an upper ridge will build over the Southwest, with a
large-scale trough across over the East. High pressure over the
Southeast will maintain stable conditions, with generally offshore
winds across the Gulf. Minimal instability may be present from the
Bahamas into the FL Straits near a stalled front, with convective
showers mainly offshore. Otherwise, lack of instability will
preclude thunderstorms chances across the CONUS.

..Jewell.. 03/16/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 161900
SWODY3
SPC AC 161859

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection
across the CONUS through the period. One exception may be near the
far southern FL Peninsula and Keys as the prior cold front intrusion
on D1-2 stalls near the FL Straits. While some airmass modification
will occur north of the boundary over offshore waters, thunderstorm
potential on land appears negligible through Wednesday night.

..Grams.. 03/16/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 170449
SWODY3
SPC AC 170448

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
The weather pattern will not change much from Wednesday into
Thursday, with prominent upper high over the Southwest, northwest
flow across the central states, and large-scale troughing just off
the East Coast. High pressure from the East into the Gulf of America
will preclude any moisture return, with a decided lack of
instability over land.

..Jewell.. 03/17/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 171852
SWODY3
SPC AC 171851

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

The overall pattern will not change much from Wednesday into
Thursday. A large upper cyclone and attendant ridge will encompass
the western U.S., while an upper trough persists near the Eastern
Seaboard. Surface high pressure across the East and Southeast and a
prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf will result in a
dearth of boundary layer moisture, maintaining a dry/stable airmass
across most of the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 03/17/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 180530
SWODY3
SPC AC 180529

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A low chance of a few thunderstorms may develop near the Upper Ohio
Valley and vicinity on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper ridge will hold over the Southwest on Friday, with strong
northwest flow aloft along the Canadian border. A low-amplitude
upper wave will intensify into northern MN and toward the upper
Great Lakes late in the day and overnight, with a weak surface low
also traversing the Great Lakes. A cold front will extend from
southwest Ontario into IL and MO by 00Z, and southerly winds ahead
of it will bring a plume of low to mid 50s F dewpoints northward
across TN/KY/IN/OH during the afternoon.

Despite the low-level moistening, instability will likely be
minimal. However, weak elevated instability may develop within the
warm advection zone roughly from OH into PA, with a low chance of
isolated thunder.

..Jewell.. 03/18/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 181856
SWODY3
SPC AC 181855

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A low chance of a few thunderstorms may develop on Friday near the
Upper Ohio Valley and vicinity, and also near the southeast Florida
coast.

...Synopsis...
An expansive upper ridge will remain in place over most of the
western CONUS on Friday. A downstream large-scale upper trough will
persist over the East. Within the large-scale trough, one shortwave
will move offshore of Florida early in the period, while an upstream
shortwave moves across the Great Lakes. A surface low will accompany
the Great Lakes shortwave trough as it moves southeastward, as a
trailing cold front moves through the Ohio Valley.

A low probability (around 10 percent) thunderstorm threat may
continue from late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday near the
southeast FL coast. Farther north, modest low-level moistening (with
dewpoints increasing to near/above 50 F) may support isolated
thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening near the
Upper Ohio Valley, in the vicinity of the advancing cold front. Weak instability is currently expected to limit organized
severe-thunderstorm potential.

..Dean.. 03/18/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 190530
SWODY3
SPC AC 190529

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated general thunderstorms are possible Saturday over the
Tennessee Valley to southern Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will exit the Northeast on Saturday, with a lobe
of cool air aloft extending southwestward from the TN Valley into
the Southeast. Meanwhile, an upper high will remain situated over
AZ/NM and into the southern Plains.

At the surface, a weak trough is forecast from the Mid Atlantic into
the TN Valley, with surface dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s F.
While lift will be minimal, daytime heating and sufficient
instability may support isolated thunderstorms in association with
the subtle southern wave. Severe weather appears unlikely given weak
lift and marginal shear/instability.

..Jewell.. 03/19/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 191931
SWODY3
SPC AC 191929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated general thunderstorms are possible Saturday over the
Tennessee Valley to southern Appalachians, and also across parts of
the Upper Midwest.

...Synopsis...
Some deamplification of the upper-level pattern is expected on
Saturday, with a transition to more zonal flow across much of the
western and central CONUS. A large-scale upper trough will remain in
place across much of the East, with a weak embedded shortwave
expected to move from the Mid MS Valley toward the Southeast.

...TN Valley into parts of GA and the Carolinas...
A weak front that moves into the region late D2/Friday is forecast
to stall and potentially become rather ill-defined with time, as a
surface low deepens well to the northwest across the north-central
Plains. A remnant moisture/instability gradient is still depicted by
guidance to be draped from TN into the southern Appalachians and SC
by Saturday afternoon. Modest destabilization (with MLCAPE
potentially approaching 1000 J/kg) will be possible along/south of
the remnant boundary, and isolated storm development may occur as
the weakening shortwave trough moves across the region.

Deep-layer shear will generally remain rather modest within the weak northwest-flow regime, and storm coverage may tend to remain limited
due to weak large-scale ascent. As a result, confidence in an
organized-severe threat is currently too low for probabilities,
though isolated strong storms with localized hail and/or wind-damage
potential cannot be ruled out, and a Marginal Risk may eventually be
needed for parts of the region.

..Dean.. 03/19/2026

$$

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