ACUS02 KWNS 040658
SWODY2
SPC AC 040656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and
into Thursday night from west Texas and the Texas Panhandle into
western Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. Large hail and severe
wind gusts, along with a couple tornadoes will be possible.

...West and Central Texas/Western Oklahoma/South-central Kansas...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly over the
south-central U.S. Moisture advection will take place across the
southern and central Plains. By midday, surface dewpoints will be in
the 50s and 60s F across the moist sector, as a dryline develops
over west Texas. Warming surface temperatures during the day will
result in the development of moderate instability to the east of the
dryline across much of west and central Texas northward into the
eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. By late afternoon,
convective initiation is expected near and just east of the dryline
on the Caprock of west Texas. These storms will grow upscale
quickly, with multiple convective clusters moving eastward into the
Low Rolling Plains of northwest Texas and into western Oklahoma.
Additional storms are expected to form in south-central Kansas
during the evening.

Due to the system in the western U.S. and the associated
southwesterly flow ahead of it, a strong low-level jet is forecast
to develop during the late afternoon and early evening across the
southern Plains. This feature will contribute to moderate deep-layer
shear over much of the southern High Plains. NAM forecast soundings
in the early evening from east of Lubbock northward into the Texas
Panhandle have gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels with
around 35 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates
are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This will be favorable
for supercells with large hail and isolated severe gusts. In the
late afternoon/early evening, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is
forecast to be in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, which will likely
support a tornado threat with the most intense storms. As low-level
moisture increases across parts of southern and central Kansas
during the evening, additional strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop. A severe threat may eventually affect central
Oklahoma and central to eastern Kansas from mid evening into the
overnight period.

...Northern Kansas/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Western and Central
Iowa...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over the central
U.S. on Thursday. In response, strong moisture advection will
continue from Thursday into Thursday night across the central Plains
and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected develop across the region starting in the late evening,
with storm coverage steadily increasing during the overnight as a
low-level jet strengthens. Forecast soundings show a low-level
temperature inversion, but develop weak instability aloft, with
MUCAPE increasing into the 500 to 1200 J/kg range across much of
northern Kansas, eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and northwestern
Missouri. In addition, effective shear is forecast to increase into
the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment will favor the development
of elevated strong to severe thunderstorms, with isolated large hail
and marginally severe wind gusts. The threat is expected to persist
through late in the period.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041728
SWODY2
SPC AC 041727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms may develop on Thursday evening and persist
into early morning Friday from northwest Texas to southern Kansas. A
few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail could occur.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will quickly progress from the
Mid-MS Valley to the Northeast. A broad positive-tilt upper trough
will shift more slowly eastward across the West, reaching the
northern High Plains to Four Corners by early Friday. Downstream lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO through Thursday afternoon.
A warm front will arc southeast and eventually east from this
cyclone. A separate front will be oriented to the northeast and
north, accelerating southeast over the northern Great Plains
Thursday night. The dryline should only mix slightly east of eastern
NM into far western parts of TX.

...Southern to central Great Plains...
Deepening lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO through the day will
yield increasing low-level moisture return beneath a pronounced EML
from TX to KS. Initial severe-storm concern will develop in the late
afternoon to early evening in the TX Panhandle/northwest TX vicinity
and adjacent western OK. Guidance differs markedly with the degree
of thunderstorm development along the surface warm front as it
advances north. The HRRR/RRFS and MPAS runs are much more aggressive
compared to the NAM-Nest and NSSL-ARW cores with sustained storms.
Differential insolation/boundary-layer heating across the front and
weak mid-level height falls may be adequate for storms ahead of the
effective front/dryline intersection in the western TX Panhandle.
Should sustained development occur, a strengthening nocturnal
low-level jet will maintain an influx of low 60s surface dew points
and surface-based instability into Thursday night.

The initial setup would favor discrete supercells capable of large
hail and at least a couple tornadoes amid a supercell wind profile
and steep mid-level lapse rates. It is plausible that a
longer-track/strong supercell or two could become established to the
northeast through the evening into the early overnight in parts of
western to north-central OK. However, upscale growth into a linear
cluster with embedded supercells seems more probable into the
overnight, capable of producing all hazards. But with some weakening
of near-surface lapse rates anticipated, confidence is low on the
degree of significant severe potential with northeastward extent.

Elevated thunderstorms appear likely to develop farther north in the southwest/central NE vicinity and in a broader swath across the
Mid-MO Valley overnight. Isolated severe hail and strong gusts could
briefly accompany the more robust storms.

..Grams.. 03/04/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041737
SWODY2
SPC AC 041735

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TEXAS TO SOUTHERN KANSAS...

CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms may develop on Thursday evening and persist
into early morning Friday from northwest Texas to southern Kansas. A
few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail could occur.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will quickly progress from the
Mid-MS Valley to the Northeast. A broad positive-tilt upper trough
will shift more slowly eastward across the West, reaching the
northern High Plains to Four Corners by early Friday. Downstream lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO through Thursday afternoon.
A warm front will arc southeast and eventually east from this
cyclone. A separate front will be oriented to the northeast and
north, accelerating southeast over the northern Great Plains
Thursday night. The dryline should only mix slightly east of eastern
NM into far western parts of TX.

...Southern to central Great Plains...
Deepening lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO through the day will
yield increasing low-level moisture return beneath a pronounced EML
from TX to KS. Initial severe-storm concern will develop in the late
afternoon to early evening in the TX Panhandle/northwest TX vicinity
and adjacent western OK. Guidance differs markedly with the degree
of thunderstorm development along the surface warm front as it
advances north. The HRRR/RRFS and MPAS runs are much more aggressive
compared to the NAM-Nest and NSSL-ARW cores with sustained storms.
Differential insolation/boundary-layer heating across the front and
weak mid-level height falls may be adequate for storms ahead of the
effective front/dryline intersection in the western TX Panhandle.
Should sustained development occur, a strengthening nocturnal
low-level jet will maintain an influx of low 60s surface dew points
and surface-based instability into Thursday night.

The initial setup would favor discrete supercells capable of large
hail and at least a couple tornadoes amid a supercell wind profile
and steep mid-level lapse rates. It is plausible that a
longer-track/strong supercell or two could become established to the
northeast through the evening into the early overnight in parts of
western to north-central OK. However, upscale growth into a linear
cluster with embedded supercells seems more probable into the
overnight, capable of producing all hazards. But with some weakening
of near-surface lapse rates anticipated, confidence is low on the
degree of significant severe potential with northeastward extent.

Elevated thunderstorms appear likely to develop farther north in the southwest/central NE vicinity and in a broader swath across the
Mid-MO Valley overnight. Isolated severe hail and strong gusts could
briefly accompany the more robust storms.

..Grams.. 03/04/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050657
SWODY2
SPC AC 050655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
Friday through Friday night across parts of the central and southern
Plains northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The
greatest potential for tornadoes, large to very large hail, and
damaging winds is across eastern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma into
western Missouri.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
A strong upper-level system over the Desert Southwest, and an
associated jet streak will eject northeastward across the central
U.S. on Friday. At the surface, a moist airmass with surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will spread northward from the
southern Plains into the eastern part of the central Plains and into
the lower Missouri Valley. As surface temperatures warm on Friday,
moderate instability will develop across most of the moist sector.
During the day, a cold front will advance southeastward into central
Kansas as a dryline sharpens over west-central Oklahoma. To the east
of these surface features, convective initiation is expected along a north-to-south corridor from northeast Kansas south-southwestward
along the I-35 corridor into south-central Oklahoma. A significant
severe weather event appears likely across the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley this afternoon and evening.
Additional more isolated storms are expected to form near the Red
River southward across north-central Texas into the Texas Hill
Country. These storms will move eastward toward the western Ozarks
and Ark-La-Tex during the evening.

A 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet will eject northeastward into the
central Plains on Friday. The latest forecasts from the ECMWF have
the jet coming through west-central Kansas positioned a bit further
southeast. This will be a favorable location for a severe weather
event across Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. NAM forecast soundings
from Wichita to Oklahoma City in the late afternoon have 40 to 50
knots of 0-6 km shear with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8
C/km. In addition, strong low-level shear is forecast with curved
hodographs. This environment will be favorable for supercells with
tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. The more dominant
supercells should be capable of producing 2 inch diameter
hailstones. Hailstones around 3 inches in diameter will be possible
with the most intense supercells. In the early evening, 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 300 to 450
m2/s2 range, which will support a potential for strong tornadoes. As
storm coverage expands in the mid to late evening, a severe line
segment is expected to develop and move into the western Ozarks.
Tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible with rotating cells
embedded in the line and with bowing line segments.

Further south into north-central Texas and the Texas Hill Country, a
severe threat is expected during the afternoon and evening.
Large-scale forcing will be more limited which will keep the storms
more widely spaced. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from
Dallas/Worth southward into the Texas Hill Country have MLCAPE
generally from 1500 to 2000 J/kg with 0-6km shear around 35 knots.
700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This should
support supercells with potential for large to very large hail and
isolated severe wind gusts. The potential for tornadoes should be
greatest in north-central Texas, where low-level shear will be
stronger.

...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will eject northeastward across the central
U.S. this afternoon and evening. Strong moisture advection will take
place ahead of the system from the mid to upper Mississippi Valley
into the southwestern Great Lakes. Surface heating during the day
will result in weak instability across much of the region with
scattered thunderstorms developing. Some of the cells could be
associated with an isolated severe threat. However, the greater
severe threat is expected to develop in the mid to late evening, as
an 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves into the region. With this
feature, strong large-scale ascent will likely result in multiple
organized line segments. The more intense components of these lines
should have a potential for severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado
threat will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 03/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050710
SWODY2
SPC AC 050709

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
Friday through Friday night across parts of the central and southern
Plains northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The
greatest potential for tornadoes, large to very large hail, and
damaging winds is across eastern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma into
western Missouri.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
A strong upper-level system over the Desert Southwest, and an
associated jet streak will eject northeastward across the central
U.S. on Friday. At the surface, a moist airmass with surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will spread northward from the
southern Plains into the eastern part of the central Plains and into
the lower Missouri Valley. As surface temperatures warm on Friday,
moderate instability will develop across most of the moist sector.
During the day, a cold front will advance southeastward into central
Kansas as a dryline sharpens over west-central Oklahoma. To the east
of these surface features, convective initiation is expected along a north-to-south corridor from northeast Kansas south-southwestward
along the I-35 corridor into south-central Oklahoma. A significant
severe weather event appears likely across the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley Friday afternoon and evening.
Additional more isolated storms are expected to form near the Red
River southward across north-central Texas into the Texas Hill
Country. These storms will move eastward toward the western Ozarks
and Ark-La-Tex during the evening.

A 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet will eject northeastward into the
central Plains on Friday. The latest forecasts from the ECMWF have
the jet coming through west-central Kansas positioned a bit further
southeast. This will be a favorable location for a severe weather
event across Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. NAM forecast soundings
from Wichita to Oklahoma City in the late afternoon have 40 to 50
knots of 0-6 km shear with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8
C/km. In addition, strong low-level shear is forecast with curved
hodographs. This environment will be favorable for supercells with
tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. The more dominant
supercells should be capable of producing 2 inch diameter
hailstones. Hailstones around 3 inches in diameter will be possible
with the most intense supercells. In the early evening, 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 300 to 450
m2/s2 range, which will support a potential for strong tornadoes. As
storm coverage expands in the mid to late evening, a severe line
segment is expected to develop and move into the western Ozarks.
Tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible with rotating cells
embedded in the line and with bowing line segments.

Further south into north-central Texas and the Texas Hill Country, a
severe threat is expected during the afternoon and evening.
Large-scale forcing will be more limited which will keep the storms
more widely spaced. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from
Dallas/Worth southward into the Texas Hill Country have MLCAPE
generally from 1500 to 2000 J/kg with 0-6km shear around 35 knots.
700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This should
support supercells with potential for large to very large hail and
isolated severe wind gusts. The potential for tornadoes should be
greatest in north-central Texas, where low-level shear will be
stronger.

...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will eject northeastward across the central
U.S. on Friday afternoon and evening. Strong moisture advection will
take place ahead of the system from the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley into the southwestern Great Lakes. Surface heating during the
day will result in weak instability across much of the region with
scattered thunderstorms developing. Some of the cells could be
associated with an isolated severe threat. However, the greater
severe threat is expected to develop in the mid to late evening, as
an 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves into the region. With this
feature, strong large-scale ascent will likely result in multiple
organized line segments. The more intense components of these lines
should have a potential for severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado
threat will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 03/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050715
SWODY2
SPC AC 050713

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR TEXT

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
Friday through Friday night across parts of the central and southern
Plains northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The
greatest potential for tornadoes, large to very large hail, and
damaging winds is across eastern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma into
western Missouri.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
A strong upper-level system over the Desert Southwest, and an
associated jet streak will eject northeastward across the central
U.S. on Friday. At the surface, a moist airmass with surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F will spread northward from the
southern Plains into the eastern part of the central Plains and into
the lower Missouri Valley. As surface temperatures warm on Friday,
moderate instability will develop across most of the moist sector.
During the day, a cold front will advance southeastward into central
Kansas as a dryline sharpens over west-central Oklahoma. To the east
of these surface features, convective initiation is expected along a north-to-south corridor from northeast Kansas south-southwestward
along the I-35 corridor into south-central Oklahoma. A significant
severe weather event appears likely across the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley Friday afternoon and evening.
Additional more isolated storms are expected to form near the Red
River southward across north-central Texas into the Texas Hill
Country. These storms will move eastward toward the western Ozarks
and Ark-La-Tex during the evening.

A 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet will eject northeastward into the
central Plains on Friday. The latest forecasts from the ECMWF have
the jet coming through west-central Kansas positioned a bit further
southeast. This will be a favorable location for a severe weather
event across Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. NAM forecast soundings
from Wichita to Oklahoma City in the late afternoon have 40 to 50
knots of 0-6 km shear with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8
C/km. In addition, strong low-level shear is forecast with curved
hodographs. This environment will be favorable for supercells with
tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts. The more dominant
supercells should be capable of producing 2 inch diameter
hailstones. Hailstones around 3 inches in diameter will be possible
with the most intense supercells. In the early evening, 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase into the 300 to 450
m2/s2 range, which will support a potential for strong tornadoes. As
storm coverage expands in the mid to late evening, a severe line
segment is expected to develop and move into the western Ozarks.
Tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be possible with rotating cells
embedded in the line and with bowing line segments.

Further south into north-central Texas and the Texas Hill Country, a
severe threat is expected during the afternoon and evening.
Large-scale forcing will be more limited which will keep the storms
more widely spaced. Forecast soundings in the late afternoon from
Dallas/Worth southward into the Texas Hill Country have MLCAPE
generally from 1500 to 2000 J/kg with 0-6km shear around 35 knots.
700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7.5 C/km. This should
support supercells with potential for large to very large hail and
isolated severe wind gusts. The potential for tornadoes should be
greatest in north-central Texas, where low-level shear will be
stronger.

...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Southwestern Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will eject northeastward across the central
U.S. on Friday afternoon and evening. Strong moisture advection will
take place ahead of the system from the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley into the southwestern Great Lakes. Surface heating during the
day will result in weak instability across much of the region with
scattered thunderstorms developing. Some of the cells could be
associated with an isolated severe threat. However, the greater
severe threat is expected to develop in the mid to late evening, as
an 70 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves into the region. With this
feature, strong large-scale ascent will likely result in multiple
organized line segments. The more intense components of these lines
should have a potential for severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado
threat will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 03/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051732
SWODY2
SPC AC 051730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
KS/OK AND WESTERN MO/AR...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN WEST
TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
Friday through Friday night from parts of the southern Great Plains
to the Midwest. The greatest potential for a couple strong tornadoes
and isolated very large hail is across eastern portions of
Oklahoma/Kansas and western portions of Arkansas/Missouri.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper trough over the West should split into two distinct
impulses by Friday night. The leading shortwave trough should eject
from the Four Corners across the central Great Plains to the Upper
Mississippi Valley, while a backside cutoff low evolves southward
over the Lower CO Valley. Lead cyclone should track from the western
KS vicinity across IA to the Upper Great Lakes. The dryline should
mix towards central OK/TX through late afternoon. A surface cold
front will accelerate southeastward across the central/southern
Great Plains on the backside of the lead cyclone.

...Central/southern Great Plains into the Midwest...
Overall forecast has substantial uncertainties as latest guidance
trends towards a more bimodal and less robust setup across the level
3-ENH risk vicinity. The most probable signal is for initial mid to
late afternoon storm development to occur near the surface cyclone
track in KS across the adjacent MO Valley. Strong deep-layer shear
will support supercells near the immediate triple-point region and
downstream warm conveyor, with primary risks of large hail and a
couple tornadoes. But convection should grow upscale relatively
quickly along the surface warm front, as well as the accelerating
cold front. One elongated QLCS or a pair of QLCSs may evolve during
the evening. The lead one should progress east-northeast towards the
Lake MI vicinity with a threat for mainly damaging winds and a few
embedded tornadoes, along the northern periphery of the
surface-based instability plume. Farther south, the cold frontal
QLCS should expand southwestward and progress more east-southeast. A
mix of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple embedded
tornadoes are plausible. But increasingly veered low-level winds
near the front should taper the threat overnight.

A separate region of low-level warm conveyor storm development is
evident downstream of the OK/TX dryline, mainly along a portion of
the Red River towards the Ozarks during the late afternoon to early
evening. Low-level and deep-layer shear profiles will be
conditionally favorable for discrete supercells, amid a richly moist
boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates. With
near-neutral mid-level height falls and peripheral influence of the
mid-level jetlet farther to the west/northwest, confidence is below
average on longer-lived/stronger supercells becoming sustained. Have
shifted the level 3-ENH risk to be centered on this region, where
storm development at least appears increasingly probable on Friday
night.

...West TX...
Consensus of CAM guidance indicates an overnight corridor of storm
development to the cool side of the accelerating cold front as it
impinges on the western lobe of the TX buoyancy plume. Rather steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear could support
a corridor of elevated large hail. The undercutting nature of the
front suggests this corridor will remain spatially confined.

..Grams.. 03/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051733
SWODY2
SPC AC 051732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
KS/OK AND WESTERN MO/AR...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN WEST
TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
Friday through Friday night from parts of the southern Great Plains
to the Midwest. The greatest potential for a couple strong tornadoes
and isolated very large hail is across eastern portions of
Oklahoma/Kansas and western portions of Arkansas/Missouri.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper trough over the West should split into two distinct
impulses by Friday night. The leading shortwave trough should eject
from the Four Corners across the central Great Plains to the Upper
Mississippi Valley, while a backside cutoff low evolves southward
over the Lower CO Valley. Lead cyclone should track from the western
KS vicinity across IA to the Upper Great Lakes. The dryline should
mix towards central OK/TX through late afternoon. A surface cold
front will accelerate southeastward across the central/southern
Great Plains on the backside of the lead cyclone.

...Central/southern Great Plains into the Midwest...
Overall forecast has substantial uncertainties as latest guidance
trends towards a more bimodal and less robust setup across the level
3-ENH risk vicinity. The most probable signal is for initial mid to
late afternoon storm development to occur near the surface cyclone
track in KS across the adjacent MO Valley. Strong deep-layer shear
will support supercells near the immediate triple-point region and
downstream warm conveyor, with primary risks of large hail and a
couple tornadoes. But convection should grow upscale relatively
quickly along the surface warm front, as well as the accelerating
cold front. One elongated QLCS or a pair of QLCSs may evolve during
the evening. The lead one should progress east-northeast towards the
Lake MI vicinity with a threat for mainly damaging winds and a few
embedded tornadoes, along the northern periphery of the
surface-based instability plume. Farther south, the cold frontal
QLCS should expand southwestward and progress more east-southeast. A
mix of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple embedded
tornadoes are plausible. But increasingly veered low-level winds
near the front should taper the threat overnight.

A separate region of low-level warm conveyor storm development is
evident downstream of the OK/TX dryline, mainly along a portion of
the Red River towards the Ozarks during the late afternoon to early
evening. Low-level and deep-layer shear profiles will be
conditionally favorable for discrete supercells, amid a richly moist
boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates. With
near-neutral mid-level height falls and peripheral influence of the
mid-level jetlet farther to the west/northwest, confidence is below
average on longer-lived/stronger supercells becoming sustained. Have
shifted the level 3-ENH risk to be centered on this region, where
storm development at least appears increasingly probable on Friday
night.

...West TX...
Consensus of CAM guidance indicates an overnight corridor of storm
development to the cool side of the accelerating cold front as it
impinges on the western lobe of the TX buoyancy plume. Rather steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear could support
a corridor of elevated large hail. The undercutting nature of the
front suggests this corridor will remain spatially confined.

..Grams.. 03/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051734
SWODY2
SPC AC 051732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CST Thu Mar 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
KS/OK AND WESTERN MO/AR...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN WEST
TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from late afternoon
Friday through Friday night from parts of the southern Great Plains
to the Midwest. The greatest potential for a couple strong tornadoes
and isolated very large hail is across eastern portions of
Oklahoma/Kansas and western portions of Arkansas/Missouri.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper trough over the West should split into two distinct
impulses by Friday night. The leading shortwave trough should eject
from the Four Corners across the central Great Plains to the Upper
Mississippi Valley, while a backside cutoff low evolves southward
over the Lower CO Valley. Lead cyclone should track from the western
KS vicinity across IA to the Upper Great Lakes. The dryline should
mix towards central OK/TX through late afternoon. A surface cold
front will accelerate southeastward across the central/southern
Great Plains on the backside of the lead cyclone.

...Central/southern Great Plains into the Midwest...
Overall forecast has substantial uncertainties as latest guidance
trends towards a more bimodal and less robust setup across the level
3-ENH risk vicinity. The most probable signal is for initial mid to
late afternoon storm development to occur near the surface cyclone
track in KS across the adjacent MO Valley. Strong deep-layer shear
will support supercells near the immediate triple-point region and
downstream warm conveyor, with primary risks of large hail and a
couple tornadoes. But convection should grow upscale relatively
quickly along the surface warm front, as well as the accelerating
cold front. One elongated QLCS or a pair of QLCSs may evolve during
the evening. The lead one should progress east-northeast towards the
Lake MI vicinity with a threat for mainly damaging winds and a few
embedded tornadoes, along the northern periphery of the
surface-based instability plume. Farther south, the cold frontal
QLCS should expand southwestward and progress more east-southeast. A
mix of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple embedded
tornadoes are plausible. But increasingly veered low-level winds
near the front should taper the threat overnight.

A separate region of low-level warm conveyor storm development is
evident downstream of the OK/TX dryline, mainly along a portion of
the Red River towards the Ozarks during the late afternoon to early
evening. Low-level and deep-layer shear profiles will be
conditionally favorable for discrete supercells, amid a richly moist
boundary layer and sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates. With
near-neutral mid-level height falls and peripheral influence of the
mid-level jetlet farther to the west/northwest, confidence is below
average on longer-lived/stronger supercells becoming sustained. Have
shifted the level 3-ENH risk to be centered on this region, where
storm development at least appears increasingly probable on Friday
night.

...West TX...
Consensus of CAM guidance indicates an overnight corridor of storm
development to the cool side of the accelerating cold front as it
impinges on the western lobe of the TX buoyancy plume. Rather steep
mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear could support
a corridor of elevated large hail. The undercutting nature of the
front suggests this corridor will remain spatially confined.

..Grams.. 03/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060655
SWODY2
SPC AC 060653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO LOWER
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from
Saturday morning into the evening across a broad swath of the
southern Great Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large
hail may occur in parts of Texas.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough, with multiple embedded shortwave
impulses, will migrate east across the Midwest and Great Lakes
regions on Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper low over the
Southwest/Lower CO Valley will continue to retrograde, becoming
positioned offshore from Baja CA by Sunday morning. At the surface,
low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will deepen as it shifts
northeast across Ontario and Quebec. A trailing cold front will
extend south/southwest from the low toward the Lower MO Valley and
into north and central TX at the beginning of the period. This front
will sweep east/southeast across the Midwest and Mid-South/TN Valley
vicinity, while the Plains portion of the front develops southward
across TX.

...Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes vicinity...

Convection will be ongoing across portions of the region Saturday
morning along outflow positioned well ahead of the synoptic cold
front. Southwesterly low-level flow and the deepening surface
cyclone over the Great Lakes will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints across the region. Cloudiness and ongoing convection will
limit surface heating. However, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow
and modest destabilization (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) will support
sustained thunderstorm development into the afternoon/evening.

The greatest risk for severe appears to be across the Upper Ohio
Valley where some stronger heating is possible. Sufficient low-level
speed shear will be present to enlarge low-level hodographs.
Furthermore, 0-1 km SRH values near 150 m2/s2 are noted in some
forecast soundings. However, linear convection is expected to be the
main storm mode given boundary-parallel deep-layer southwesterly
flow, promoting mainly a damaging wind risk. However, if any
cellular convection develops, an isolated risk for marginally severe
hail and a tornado or two also will be possible.

...TX into the Mid-South and Lower MS/TN Valleys...

Convection is expected to be ongoing near the surface front Saturday
morning. Some of this convection may be elevated as it quickly
becomes undercut by the cold front, especially near the Red River
into portions of AR. This activity may pose a risk for severe hail
early in the period across north TX into southeast OK and parts of
AR. Convection is expected to develop south and east along the front
through the day. The downstream warm sector will be characterized by
low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates,
supporting MLCAPE in the 500-1500 J/kg range. Linear convection will
be most predominant across the Mid-South into the TN valley where a
risk for isolated to scattered wind damage and marginal hail will
exist through the afternoon before a weakening trend ensues after
sunset across the Deep South.

Across TX, steeper midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Low level flow
is expected to remain modest further removed from the upper
shortwave trough and surface cyclone across the Midwest/Great Lakes.
However, stronger heating, steeper low and midlevel lapse rates, and
favorable wind profiles for organized supercells will support a
corridor of severe hail potential from central TX toward southwest
AR/northwest LA near the undercutting cold front. The strongest
storms could produce hail in the 1.5-2 inch range.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061728
SWODY2
SPC AC 061726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN TX TO MS AND
THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Saturday
morning into the evening across a broad swath of the southern Great
Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large hail should
occur over parts of Texas, centered on the south-central vicinity.

...Synopsis...
An upper shortwave trough, with multiple embedded shortwave
impulses, will move east from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes
regions on Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper low over the Lower CO
Valley will continue to retrograde, becoming positioned offshore
from Baja CA by Sunday morning. At the surface, a cyclone over the
Upper Great Lakes will deepen as it quickly moves to QC. A trailing
cold front will extend southwest from the low across the Lower MO
Valley to central TX at 12Z Saturday. This front will sweep
east/southeast across the Midwest, while the TX portion slows its
southern progression through early Sunday.

...OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
At least scattered convection will be ongoing in a broad swath
along/ahead of the aforementioned front from the Mid-South to the
central Great Lakes. Southwesterly low-level flow and the deepening
surface cyclone into ON/QC will support upper 50s to low 60s
dewpoints advecting towards western PA/southwest NY. Cloudiness in
vicinity of the ongoing convection will limit heating immediately
downstream, but a corridor of moderate insolation should develop
from the Cumberland Plateau into a portion of the Upper OH Valley.
This should support weak to modest MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg during
the afternoon. Most guidance signals an uptick in convective
intensity should occur as the large-scale outflow impinges on the
stronger instability by early afternoon. Sufficient low-level speed
shear will be present to moderately enlarge hodographs, however
linear convection is expected to be the main storm mode given nearly
parallel to the boundary deep-layer southwesterly flow. Scattered
damaging winds from strong to isolated severe gusts should be the
main hazard. A tornado or two and isolated marginally severe hail
may occur in deeper updrafts.

...TX to the Deep South...
Extensive convection is expected to be ongoing near the surface
front at 12Z Saturday from the Mid-South to the TX Big Country. The
western portion of this activity should be elevated with continuous undercutting by the south/southeastward-moving cold front, posing an
initial severe hail threat. Linear convection will be most
predominant from the Ark-La-Tex/Mid-South, sagging east-southeast
across the Lower MS to TN Valleys, as it expands in coverage with
downstream diurnal destabilization. Low-level shear will be
strongest in the morning, before weakening through the afternoon. A
brief tornado or two is possible early, but sporadic bursts of
damaging winds should be the primary hazard, along with isolated
severe hail. Linear clusters will probably persist into the evening,
but shrink in areal extent on Saturday night, with a diminishing
severe threat towards the central Gulf Coast.

Over central to southern TX, steep mid-level lapse rates and greater boundary-layer heating, particularly closer to the Rio Grande,
should support a plume of MLCAPE from 1500-2000 J/kg. Low-level flow
will remain weak and slightly diffluent in the open warm-moist
sector. Transient supercells are expected as the composite
front/outflow ripples southeastward across the state through the
evening. Large hail and isolated severe gusts should be the primary
hazards. A more intense supercell or two remains plausible in a
meso-beta corridor of south TX/Brush Country vicinity, capable of
very large hail. This may warrant a level 3-ENH with a CIG2
delineation in later outlooks.

..Grams.. 03/06/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070606
SWODY2
SPC AC 070604

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday
afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia.

...Carolinas into southeast VA...

An upper shortwave trough will quickly move from the Great Lakes and
across the Northeast by Sunday evening. Another weaker shortwave
impulse will move across the TN Valley during the afternoon before
emerging over VA/NC by early Monday. A belt of enhanced
southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the northern extent of
a warm sector across southeast VA into NC/SC. Modest surface
troughing is forecast across the Piedmont, but low-level convergence
is expected to remain weak. A surface front will not move much
through afternoon, but with time will begin to develop
south/southeast across the region during the evening.

Modest midlevel lapse rates and surface dewpoint in the 60s will
foster weak destabilization. Isolated thunderstorm development is
expected during the afternoon into evening ahead of the surface
boundary. While low-level flow will remain weak, southwesterly flow
aloft will increase rapidly, leading to around 25-30 kt effective
shear magnitudes (somewhat higher across southeast VA/far northeast
NC). A couple of organized cells could develop and pose a risk for
locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail.

..Leitman.. 03/07/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071728
SWODY2
SPC AC 071727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday
afternoon to early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia.

...Carolinas into southeast Virginia...
A midlevel trough will move eastward across the Northeast, while a
related cold front moves slowly eastward across the Appalachians and
eventually to the East Coast late in the period. Ahead of the front,
isolated thunderstorms are expected within a broad pre-frontal
surface trough extending across the Carolinas into southeast VA
during the afternoon. While midlevel lapse rates will be modest,
diurnal heating/destabilization of a relatively moist air mass
(lower/middle 60s dewpoints) will still contribute to weak
surface-based buoyancy ahead of these storms. This, combined with
around 30 kt of effective shear, may promote a couple loosely
organized storms during the afternoon and early evening before
quickly spreading offshore. The stronger storms will pose a risk of
locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail.

..Weinman.. 03/07/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080615
SWODY2
SPC AC 080613

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the
Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...ArkLaTex and Lower MS/TN Valleys...

A low-amplitude mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the
southern Plains to the TN Valley through Monday afternoon/evening.
In the absence of stronger height falls, little surface cyclogenesis
is expected. Nevertheless, deep layer southwesterly flow will
support persistent warm advection regime. Rich boundary-layer
moisture (surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F) will be in
place across the Lower MS Valley beneath steep midlevel lapse rates.
Pockets of stronger heating of the moist warm sector will support
MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (particularly across southern AR/northern
LA into MS). Supercell wind profiles are noted in forecast soundings
amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes owing to strong mid/upper
flow. Forecast hodographs also become elongated/straight above 2-3
km.

Large-scale ascent will remain modest and may limit storm coverage,
but most CAMs guidance suggest at least a few storms will develop
within the warm advection regime. Convection will mainly pose a risk
for large hail (with some potential for hail up to 2 inch diameter)
and localize strong wind gusts. Given moist low-levels and modestly enlarged/curved low-level hodographs, a tornado or two also may be
possible, but is not expected to be the main hazard.

..Leitman.. 03/08/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081728
SWODY2
SPC AC 081726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast on Monday across parts of the
lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys into the Southeast.

...Lower MS and TN Valleys into the Southeast...
A southern-stream, low-amplitude midlevel impulse and accompanying
40-kt speed max will advance eastward from the central Plains into
the TN Valley through the afternoon and evening. Steepened midlevel
lapse rates accompanying this feature will overspread a plume of
middle/upper 60s dewpoints, which combined with diurnal heating in
cloud breaks, will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest over
the Arklatex into the lower MS Valley).

Initial thunderstorms should develop within a zone of weak/broad
low-level warm advection preceding the midlevel impulse over the
Arklatex vicinity, before spreading/developing eastward through the afternoon/evening. Around 40 kt of effective shear (with modestly
enhanced low-level hodograph curvature) and the aforementioned
buoyancy should support a mix of small organized clusters and
supercells -- both posing a risk of large hail and locally damaging
gusts. Any established semi-discrete supercells that evolve will be
capable of producing very large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, and
a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

..Weinman.. 03/08/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090601
SWODY2
SPC AC 090600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the
southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe
hazards are possible.

...Synopsis...

A complex scenario for severe thunderstorm potential is expected on
Tuesday and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley/southern Great Lakes vicinity. A somewhat bi-modal severe
risk appears possible within a split-flow upper level pattern. All
severe hazards appear possible, especially within a corridor across
portions of TX, and a second corridor from northern MO into
northern/central IL and northwest IN.

Expansive area of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the
southern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes, aided by two separate
upper troughs. The first is associated with an upper low/trough
across northwest Mexico and the Southwest, which will shift east
into the southern High Plains by Wednesday. The second is a broad
but deepening upper trough moving across the northern/central Plains
toward the Upper Midwest. Two areas of low pressure are expected to
develop with the approaching of these upper systems, one over the central/southern High Plains and the other across the Lower
MO/Mid-MS valley. A dryline/Pacific front will be oriented across
western TX, while a warm front extends west to east from near
northern MO/southeast IA into northern IL/IN. By evening, a cold
front will begin to develop southeast across KS/MO/IA/IL/IN, and the
Pacific front will shift east across central TX. These boundaries
will be the focus for scattered to widespread thunderstorm
development from late afternoon into the overnight hours.

...Mid-MO Valley to southern Great Lakes vicinity...

Capping will likely suppress convection for much of the day within a
strong warm advection regime. Surface dewpoints are expected to
climb into the low/mid-60s south of the warm front beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates. This will foster 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by peak
heating. Convection is expected to develop within the 21-00z time
frame when a 40 kt low-level jet is expected to overspread the
region. Supercell wind profiles are noted in forecast soundings,
with hodographs exhibiting enhanced low-level curvature, with lengthened/straight hodographs above 2-3 km. Given a favorable
thermodynamic environment, large hail to 2.5 inches appears possible
with storms both within the warm sector and initial activity that
may develop within the cooler air north of the front. Furthermore,
any cells that develop within the warm sector and interact with the
front will encounter enhanced low-level shear/SRH and tornadoes
(some EF-2+) will be possible. With time during the evening,
convection will likely grow upscale into one or more
southeast-advancing linear segments near the advancing cold front.
Damaging winds will be possible with this activity overnight.

...Southern Plains vicinity...

Convection is expected to develop along the surface dryline across
western TX by mid to late afternoon. Initial supercells are possible
and could produce large hail (to around 2 inch diameter) and a
couple of tornadoes. Convection may quickly grow upscale as the
Pacific front overtakes the dryline and large-scale ascent increases
rapidly by 00z.

Uncertainty increases with northward extent across OK/KS into
southern MO/AR. These areas will be within the broad warm sector and
moderate to strongly sheared environment. However, this area will
also be between the two areas of stronger ascent. Some capping may
persist and it is unclear how convection may evolve across these
areas.

..Leitman.. 03/09/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091729
SWODY2
SPC AC 091727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the
southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe
hazards are possible.

...Synopsis...
A bi-modal severe weather event is expected Tuesday afternoon and
evening across the Mid-West and portions of central Texas.
Mid-morning surface observations/analyses reveal a surface low
migrating eastward across the upper Great Lakes with a trailing cold
front draped southwestward into the central Plains. Weakening winds
behind the front suggest that this boundary will begin to stall
later today across the Midwest/central Plains. Meanwhile, returning
moisture is forecast to spread north over the next 24 hours as
surface pressure falls and southerly winds increase across the
Plains with the approach of the upper trough currently meandering
over Baja California and a slight amplification of the upper wave
over the north-central CONUS. This will help establish an expansive
warm sector from southern Texas northward into the central Plains
and Great Lakes region, bounded to the north by the stalled frontal
boundary and to the west by a weak dryline/Pacific front. Strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected within this warm sector as ascent
along the Midwest frontal zone and across the southern Plains
increases with the ejection of the upper trough late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night.

...Midwest...
The greatest regional severe threat will likely be focused along the
frontal boundary Tuesday afternoon and evening. Most guidance
suggests the stalled cold front will advance northward as a warm
front as low-level southerly flow increases within the warm conveyor
belt of a developing cyclone over IA/northern MO, but the exact
placement and orientation of the boundary, and any potential
influence by cool lake-breezes off lower Lake Michigan, remain
uncertain given spread between 12z CAM and global guidance.

Regardless, strong isentropic ascent over the frontal zone coupled
with ample low-level moistening and steepening mid-level lapse rates
will support a convective environment favorable for well-organized
convection along both the warm front and southwestward along the
cold front across northern MO and KS. Effective SRH on the order of
200-300 m2/s2 coupled with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg along/just south
of the boundary will support the potential for tornadoes - including
strong tornadoes - with any discrete supercell that can become
established. Convection developing north of the surface fronts will
still reside in a very favorable environment for elevated supercells
capable producing large/very large hail (possibly in excess of 2
inches). Upscale growth/clustering is expected through the evening
hours, which should support an increase in severe winds. It remains
somewhat unclear how quickly upscale growth will occur given
along-boundary flow through a deep layer, and this may curtail the supercellular tornado threat if clustering occurs too quickly.
However, based on latest forecast soundings and CAM guidance, the
tornado potential will likely be greatest along the warm front
across central IL between 21-02 UTC where low-level SRH and surface
pressure falls/ascent will be maximized.

...Southern Plains...
12 UTC soundings across the southern Plains sampled steep mid-level
lapse rates already in place across the region. The onset of deep
moisture return is noted along the TX Coastal Plain, which should
spread north across central TX into OK by Tuesday morning.
Isentropic ascent within the warm sector may support isolated
thunderstorm development by late morning across north TX into the
Texarkana region where capping should be weaker. By late
afternoon/early evening, more widespread thunderstorm development is
expected across central TX as strong height falls associated with
the ejecting upper wave overspread the region. Initially discrete
supercells will be capable of all hazards, through very large (2+
inch) hail appears to be the most probable threat. Strong forcing
for ascent will promote upscale growth through the evening with one
or more bowing segments possible. Enlarging low-level hodographs
associated with an increasing nocturnal jet may support embedded
circulations within the developing squall line. 30% hail/wind
probabilities were introduced to highlight the corridor of higher
hail/wind threat from the Edwards Plateau into central TX.

..Moore.. 03/09/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100602
SWODY2
SPC AC 100600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday
from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through
the Ohio Valley vicinity.

...ArkLaTex to Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...

A messy scenario is evident heading into Wednesday from east Texas
northeast into PA/MD/VA. A northern stream upper trough will develop
east across the Great Lakes/Midwest, while a southern stream
shortwave trough moves across TX and the Lower MS Valley. A broad
swath of strong southwesterly deep layer flow will overspread these
areas, with a particularly strong jet max across the Ohio Valley
(80-100 kt at 500 mb). At the surface, a cold front will be oriented
from southern Lower MI into central OK Wednesday morning. A
dryline/Pacific front will then extend southward across east-central
TX. A surface cyclone is expected to deepen as it moves northeast
near the international border and Lower Great Lakes through
Wednesday evening. As this occurs, the surface cold front will
develop southeast, eventually overtaking the TX dryline during the
afternoon. This front will become oriented from the Mid-Atlantic
coast to the central Gulf coast by Thursday morning.

Ahead of the surface boundaries, a broad warm sector will be in
place, with surface dewpoints into the 60s F as far north as PA. The
strongest instability will likely be focused across the Lower MS
Valley where dewpoints into the mid/upper 60s F are possible and at
least some stronger surface heating will be possible. With northward
extent, instability will decrease, but MLCAPE up to 500-1000 J/kg
will be common across the Ohio Valley into VA. One of the main
concerns/points of uncertainty precluding higher probabilities
across the Ohio Valley vicinity is possible ongoing convection
during the morning, and multiple rounds of convection within the
broad warm advection regime limiting lapse rates/instability and
greater severe potential. Nevertheless, intense deep-layer
southwesterly flow will support damaging wind potential across a
broad area and an outlook upgrade was considered for parts of
southeast OH/northeast KY/southwest PA and western/northern WV. If
enough destabilization occurs and a strongly forced line of
convection develops, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes could occur.

Further south into the ArkLaTex and Lower MS Valley vicinity, a line
of convection is expected to be ongoing Wednesday morning.
Deep-layer flow will not be as strong compared to further north, but
still more than adequate for organized convection. Lapse rates are
forecast to remain modest, but linear convection along the surging
cold front will pose an all-hazards severe risk. Some forecast
guidance suggests discrete convection could develop ahead of the
line. If this occurs, some increased risk for tornadoes will
develop, especially as storms merge with the line. However,
confidence in this scenario is low. Depending on forecast trends,
outlook upgrades could become necessary in subsequent outlooks.

..Leitman.. 03/10/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101729
SWODY2
SPC AC 101728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday
from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through
the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
Another day of scattered severe weather is anticipated for
Wednesday. Two upper waves - evident in early-afternoon water-vapor
imagery over the northern Rockies and northern Mexico - will
traverse eastward over the next 24 hours. Substantial amplification
of the northern wave is expected as it migrates into the upper OH
Valley through the day. Strong broad-scale ascent ahead of the wave
and within the left-exit region of a strengthening upper jet will
promote steady intensification of a surface cyclone as it progresses
from the Great Lakes into southeastern Quebec by Thursday morning.

A broad fetch of southerly flow will support poleward moisture
return as far north as the upper OH Valley by Wednesday afternoon. A
trailing cold front attendant to the surface low will push
east/southeast through the day, reaching the Mid-Atlantic and
northern Gulf Coast by 12 UTC Thursday. Strong to severe
thunderstorm chances will be focused along and ahead of this front
through the day as it pushes east/southeast.

...Upper OH Valley...
A corridor of higher severe wind, and perhaps tornado, potential may
emerge across OH into parts of WV and western PA Wednesday morning
into the afternoon hours. Latest guidance shows reasonably good
agreement in a swath of pre-frontal 40-50 knot flow within the
lowest kilometer overspreading the upper OH Valley. Within this
strong flow field, guidance also depicts a pronounced plume of
higher theta-e values advecting northward along the western
Appalachians. The intersection of the strong flow with subtle
low-level warm advection will likely support a corridor of
regionally higher buoyancy and enhanced effective SRH (on the order
of 200-300 m2/s2) favorable for well-organized convection, including supercells.

The primary uncertainty pertains to antecedent storm coverage across
the region during the morning hours. Residual convection from late
Tuesday night will likely linger over the mid/upper OH Valley,
though guidance shows some uncertainty regarding coverage and
intensity of this activity. Sparse storm coverage should help
maximize diurnal destabilization and will support a more robust
severe threat. Greater coverage of morning convection will act to
modulate the thermodynamic environment by muting the influence of
daytime heating and the northward extent of richer moisture.
Regardless, updraft/UH signals in CAM ensembles and recent
calibrated guidance depict a corridor of stronger convection across
far eastern IN into OH, WV, and southwest PA. Increased wind
probabilities (30%) have been introduced across this corridor where
one or more rounds of storms within a strong flow field will pose a
threat for damaging/severe winds. Higher risk categories may be
needed if morning storm coverage is minimal and a more potent
thermodynamic environment emerges.

...Lower MS Valley...
One or more broken bands of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
ahead of a Pacific front across the greater Texarkana region
Wednesday morning. While some modulation in convective intensity is
anticipated during the morning hours, continued lift ahead of the
southern stream upper wave through peak heating will promote a re-intensification of thunderstorms by early afternoon. Southerly
flow through a deep layer will promote along-boundary storm motions
and maintain a linear storm mode through the day. An increase in
storm coverage is anticipated through the lower MS Valley as the
primary synoptic cold front pushes into the region by late
afternoon. While low to mid-level flow fields are expected to weaken
by early evening as the synoptic low accelerates away to the
northeast, adequate shear will likely be in place during the
afternoon hours to support organized segments capable of severe
gusts and embedded circulations.

Latest guidance continues to hint at the potential for discrete,
pre-line convection across eastern LA into southern and central MS
as heating and modest ascent erodes weak capping within the warm
sector. Kinematic profiles - characterized by 40 knots of effective
bulk shear and 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH - will support supercells
capable of all hazards, though coverage and longevity of supercells
remains uncertain given disparity between 12z CAM solutions and
modest signals in calibrated guidance.

..Moore.. 03/10/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110532
SWODY2
SPC AC 110531

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms producing gusty winds are possible
across parts of the Southeast on Thursday morning into early
afternoon. However, severe thunderstorm potential appears low.

...Southeast...

An upper trough from the Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast will
pivot east, moving offshore the Atlantic Seaboard by late
Thursday/early Friday. Thursday morning, a cold front will extend south/southwest from the Mid-Atlantic coast to southern AL.
Scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the front within a
moist warm sector, mainly from the central portions of the Carolinas
into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle. Mid and low-level lapse
rates are forecast to remain modest (6-6.5 C/km), and limited
heating downstream of the front through midday/early afternoon will
be stunted by cloudiness. As a result, instability is expected to
remain modest (500-750 J/kg MLCAPE). Deep-layer westerly flow
parallel to the front will remain fairly robust, with 30-50 kt from
850-500 mb. Coupled with weak instability, a few stronger storms
producing mainly gusty winds will be possible across portions of
northern FL into southeast GA, and perhaps portions of coastal SC.
The front should move offshore by mid-afternoon (arcing
southwestward across north FL and the eastern Gulf). Overall, severe thunderstorm potential appears limited.

..Leitman.. 03/11/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111723
SWODY2
SPC AC 111722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging winds
across parts of the Southeast on Thursday morning into the
afternoon.

...Synopsis...
A strong synoptic cold front is evident in latest surface
observations pushing east/southeast across the OH Valley and lower
MS Valley. Thunderstorm development will become increasingly focused
along the front across the lower MS Valley and Southeast
today/tonight, and will likely be still ongoing by 12 UTC Thursday. Thunderstorm potential will become increasingly confined to the FL
peninsula by the evening hours as the front moves off shore.

...Florida Panhandle into central Georgia...
Strong (40-50 knot) deep-layer wind shear will likely be in place
across far southeast AL into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle at
the start of the forecast period. While buoyancy will be marginal, a
few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible within a
convective band based on latest HREF/REFS ensemble output. A steady
weakening trend is expected through the day as the band drifts into
an environment with poor lapse rates over the FL peninsula/southeast
GA, but a few instances of damaging winds appear possible during the
12-16 UTC period.

...Carolinas...
Heating ahead of the approaching cold front will likely support
SBCAPE values of around 500 J/kg across the central to coastal
Carolinas by mid-afternoon. Meager buoyancy/lapse rates will
generally modulate convective intensity as thunderstorms develop
along the front. However, 40-50 knot flow near the top of the
boundary layer and around 40 knots of 0-3 km BWD may support loosely
organized cells/clusters capable of sporadic damaging wind gusts
before the front pushes off the coast.

...Northern Plains...
Sporadic lightning flashes appear likely during the late afternoon
hours amid low-level heating under a pocket of cold temperatures
aloft associated with a robust clipper low. Strengthening winds
within the lowest 0.5-1 km may support very localized stronger
gusts, but confidence in a more robust severe threat remains
limited.

..Moore.. 03/11/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120513
SWODY2
SPC AC 120512

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...

A diffuse surface boundary will reside across central FL on Friday.
To the south of the boundary, a seasonally warm and moist airmass
will be in place. This will support modest destabilization during
the afternoon, and isolated thunderstorms may develop, mainly across
south FL. Poor lapse rates, weak vertical shear, and a lack of
forcing for ascent will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 03/12/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121724
SWODY2
SPC AC 121722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A cold front currently pushing east towards the southeastern U.S.
coast will continue to migrate offshore and southward along the FL
peninsula through Friday morning. This boundary will eventually
stall across south FL before gradually lifting north as a very
diffuse warm frontal zone. Diurnal heating of a moist and largely
uncapped environment will support thunderstorm development by early
to mid-afternoon - especially along the southwestern FL coastline
where sea-breeze interactions will locally augment ascent. Very weak
flow through 6 km will limit the potential for organized severe
thunderstorms, though the thermodynamic profiles may support very
isolated strong downburst winds.

Further north, an intense cyclone will traverse the lower Great
Lakes into the Northeast through the day. Cold mid-level
temperatures may support adequate instability for sporadic lightning
flashes along the NY/PA border. Strong (40-50 knot winds) just above
the surface may be mechanically mixed to the surface by any shallow
convection that can develop, as hinted by recent HRRR solutions.
However, morning guidance depicts considerable spread regarding CAPE availability that limits confidence in the overall lightning (or
severe wind) potential.

..Moore.. 03/12/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130510
SWODY2
SPC AC 130508

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Saturday, a strong upper trough will dig into the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies during the day, and into the northern
and central High Plains by 12Z Sunday. To the east, an upper trough
will exit New England, with rapid height rises across much of the
Northeast overnight.

At the surface, most of the CONUS will remain relatively stable for
much of the period with high pressure ridge from the Great Lakes
into the Southeast, and extending across the northern Gulf of
America. The exception during the day will be over the FL Peninsula,
where weak east to southeast winds will maintain mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints.

...FL...
Daytime heating and surface convergence will lead to a few
thunderstorms by afternoon over the interior Peninsula and along the
Atlantic Coast. Forecast soundings show relatively warm and dry
midlevels, with lightly veering winds with height. The end result
should be non-severe thunderstorms, though locally gusty winds are
always possible.

...Elsewhere...
Though little thunderstorm activity is expected through Sunday
morning, a powerful upper trough will develop across the Rockies and
into the High Plains into Sunday. Sporadic lightning cannot be ruled
out over western WY and vicinity as the left-exit region of the
midlevel jet moves overhead. A surface low will then develop
overnight into the central Plains, and this will bring a warm front
north into southern IA. Overall moisture at this time appears
meager, but isolated lightning cannot totally be ruled out with any
highly elevated convective showers Sunday morning across northern IA
into MN and WI well north of the warm front.

..Jewell.. 03/13/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131730
SWODY2
SPC AC 131728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Discussion...
A generally zonal pattern across the CONUS will become more
amplified on Saturday with a trough developing across the Plains by
the end of the period. A lack of moisture will limit severe weather
concerns Saturday and Saturday night.

Where greater moisture is present across Florida, isolated storms
are expected on Saturday amid moderate instability and weak height
falls. Shear will be on the weaker side (~25 knots) and mid-level
lapse rates will remain weak. Therefore, an isolated stronger storm
is possible, but more organized severe storms are not expected.

Isolated thunderstorms may be possible north of the warm front from
northern Iowa/southern Minnesota into southwest Wisconsin early
Sunday morning given the strong isentropic ascent, but forecast
soundings show relatively meager moisture/instability at this time,
which may preclude more widespread thunderstorm development.

..Bentley.. 03/13/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140600
SWODY2
SPC AC 140558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
A widespread damaging wind event with some tornado threat is likely
late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night from northeast Texas to
southwest Lower Michigan. The greatest wind damage threat appears to
be from northeast Arkansas/western Tennessee to southern Indiana
during the evening and overnight hours.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will deepen on Sunday as it moves from the
Plains toward the MS Valley, with an intensifying mid and upper
level jet streak extending from Lake Michigan to northern MS into
Monday morning. At the surface, low pressure will move from IA/MO
into northern IL during the day, with further deepening overnight as
it pivots into Lower MI. A strong cold front will extend south from
the low, from IL into southeast MO and into eastern TX at 00Z. This
front will accelerate across the OH, TN, and lower MS Valleys
overnight, extending from OH to the FL Panhandle by 12Z Monday.

A broad zone of gusty southerly winds will exist well ahead of the
cold front over much of the region, aided by a mixed boundary layer
and 40-60 kt 850 mb winds through the peak heating hours. An initial
low-level moist plume will develop from eastern TX across AR and
toward the lower OH Valley during the day, with dewpoints above 60
F. Continued warm/moist advection will occur during the evening, as
the low-level jet becomes very strong, ranging from 50-60 kt over
the Gulf Coast states to 75 kt into IN, OH, KY. Dewpoints into the
mid 50s F will likely reach across much of IL, IN, and far southern
Lower MI.

As the cold front encounters the developing moisture/instability
plume, storms will likely develop from western IL/MO southwestward
toward the ArkLaTex by 21Z, with a rapid upscale growth into a
squall line/QLCS, peaking in the 00 to 06Z time frame across the
heart of the Enhanced Risk area.

Farther east, a secondary moisture plume will develop across GA and
the Carolinas, possibly supporting isolated strong or severe storms
across the Piedmont during the late afternoon and again overnight,
and perhaps along parts of the coast.

...Northeast TX across the MS and OH Valleys and up to IN/OH/Lower
MI...
While instability is likely to be a limiting factor late afternoon
and evening, strong large-scale ascent coupled with developing
extreme shear profiles will likely result in corridors of damaging
winds, with a few tornadoes as well. Shallow convection is likely to
develop along the cold front from MO into western AR by early
afternoon, with gradual strengthening as the air mass destabilizes.
Storms are also expected to develop ahead of the cold front late in
the day and into the evening, from southern IL into southeast MO and
eastern AR, with increasing wind and tornado risk from IL/IN into
western KY, TN, and northeast AR. The front will continue to push
rapidly east and southeast overnight, with continued wind and
isolated tornado risk from OH to the southern Appalachians. A
conditional tornado risk will also exist overnight ahead of the
front into AL/GA if cells can develop across the warm sector early
Monday.

..Jewell.. 03/14/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141732
SWODY2
SPC AC 141730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ARK-LA-TEX/ARK-LA-MISS TO THE WABASH/LOWER OH VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to widespread damaging winds along with tornadoes should
develop on Sunday afternoon, persisting through Sunday night across
a large portion of the South-Central/Southeast States into the
Midwest/Ohio Valley. The greatest strong tornado and significant
severe wind threats appear to be from the Ark-La-Miss to the Lower
Ohio Valley on Sunday evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will amplify across the central states on Sunday and
become centered from WI to the Ark-La-Tex by 12Z Monday. Associated
surface cyclone will track from the IA/MO border to Lower MI,
deepening Sunday evening/night. As this occurs, attendant cold front
will accelerate eastward across the Mid-MS to the OH Valleys.
Trailing portion of the front will sweep south-southeast into the
northwest Gulf to central Gulf Coast through Monday morning.

Primary changes with the level 3-ENH risk are to include a
10-percent tornado area, southward expansion of 45-percent wind, and
addition of 15-percent and CIG1 hail areas. Expansion of level
1-2/MRGL-SLGT risk areas has occurred over the Southeast for mainly
the 06-12Z period Monday. Uncertainty is greatest on the western
extent for where convection should become severe, and the northern
extent within a thermodynamically challenged environment.

...South-Central/Southeast States to the Midwest...
In the wake of morning elevated convection over a portion of the
Mid/Upper MS Valley, midday convective development should occur
along the highly convergent surface front across a part of the
Mid-MS Valley to the Ozarks. This activity may initially remain
shallow, before deepening and greatly expand in coverage through the
afternoon as it impinges on richer boundary-layer moisture towards
the Ark-La-Tex and the Mid-South portion of the MS Valley. By late
afternoon, an extensively long QLCS should become established from
IL south-southwestward. Semi-discrete supercell development appears
most favored along the southern portion of the broader convective
plume near the front and downstream within a strengthening
warm/moist conveyor. This should support potential for large hail
and a couple strong tornadoes before supercells become absorbed
within the broader QLCS during the evening. This scenario should
also yield an increasingly pinched-off warm-moist sector from the
Mid-South to TN Valley. Despite this aspect, substantial
strengthening of 700-mb winds on either side of the front, initially
across the Mid-South vicinity and expanding to the OH to TN Valleys,
will yield a setup conductive for scattered to widespread damaging
wind swaths through the evening.

On Sunday night, the northern extent of the severe threat should
become more sporadic as surface-based instability becomes/remains
minimal. But the very fast lower-level wind fields may yield
persistence of some damaging wind/brief tornado potential eastward
in the OH Valley/southern Great Lakes. Farther south, there are
increasing signals for renewed low-level warm conveyor convective
development across the central to northeast Gulf Coast vicinity
early Monday morning. Deep-layer shear profiles will be conducive to semi-discrete supercells just ahead of/merging into the progressive
QLCS. This should foster a period of increased large hail/sustained
tornado potential. Otherwise, damaging winds will remain favored
from at least the FL Panhandle to the southern Appalachians.

..Grams.. 03/14/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150608
SWODY2
SPC AC 150607

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO VIRGINIA AND
MARYLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe storms are forecast on Monday for parts of the
Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Tornadoes, potentially strong,
and particularly damaging winds are most likely from South Carolina
into Maryland during the afternoon. Significant severe storm
potential overall will extend from eastern Georgia/Florida Panhandle
into Pennsylvania.

...Synopsis...
A large and deepening upper trough will pivot northeastward out of
the OH/TN Valleys, across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic
on Monday, while a surface low deepens into southern Quebec. A sharp pre-frontal trough will extend southward across NY, PA, and into the Carolinas/GA by late afternoon, with a corridor of significant
pressure falls timed with the diurnal heating maximum. A cold front
will push rapidly east across GA and the FL Panhandle during the day
with a bit slower progress across the Piedmont and into PA. Gusty
south winds ahead of the cold front will maintain 60s F dewpoints
across the entire region, and as far north as southern PA, just
after warm front passage by late afternoon.

Just above the surface, southerly 850 mb winds will increase from 50
to 75 kt, resulting in extreme shear profiles over a large area.
Large-scale ascent and shear will increase coincident with the peak
heating hours, resulting in a potentially widespread severe weather
event during the afternoon.

...From Georgia and the Florida Panhandle...
Early day storms may be ongoing from the southern Appalachians
toward the FL Panhandle Monday morning, and the environment will
already be favorable for supercells including tornado potential.
Forecast soundings indicate substantial instability with mid to
perhaps upper 60s F along with ample shear. These storms may also
produce hail, as midlevel lapse rates approach 7 C/km.

...Carolinas into MD/PA and vicinity...
Areas of showers may occur early in the day especially but should
rapidly lift north, allowing areas of heating and gradual
destabilization over the entire area. As the surface trough deepens,
low-level wind will back and strengthen throughout the day.
Supercells producing tornadoes appear most likely ahead of the cold
front from SC into NC and southern VA. Models vary with degree of
instability, but strong tornadoes do appear possible with effective
SRH of at least 300-400 m2/s2. Fast storm motions over 50 kt suggest
a long tracked tornado will be possible.

Meanwhile, a robust line of storms will develop as the cold front
pushes east, stretching from the Carolinas to southern NY. With a
moist air mass and large-scale support, this line is expected to
produce particularly damaging winds, along with QLCS tornadoes
across the remainder of SC/NC, VA, MD, and much of southern PA. This
will likely peak during the late afternoon hours. The activity may
eventually interact with cool trajectories off the Atlantic during
the evening.

..Jewell.. 03/15/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151732
SWODY2
SPC AC 151730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...AND
WASHINGTON D.C...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe storms are anticipated on Monday across the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. Tornadoes, some strong, and
particularly damaging winds are most likely from parts of South
Carolina to Maryland during the afternoon.

...Synopsis...
An expansive upper trough from WI to the Ark-La-Tex will further
amplify as the basal portion pivots rapidly northeastward towards
the Appalachians. A deep surface cyclone over Lower MI will progress
into QC, with an occluded front arcing southward to a minor low over
western to central NY by Monday afternoon. A sharp cold front will
extend south of this low across the Southeast into the northeast
Gulf, sweeping east across the entire Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z
Tuesday.

...East...
No change has been made to the ongoing level 4-MDT risk, with some
expansion of the 3-ENH in GA, as well as expansions of 1-2/MRGL-SLGT
across NY and FL. The highly meridional deep-layer flow regime
suggests that surface-based instability appears more likely to
develop into NY on Monday afternoon. This type of flow regime, along
with substantial early-day convection south, both render some
uncertainty on intensity amplitudes for wind/tornado across much of
the ENH-MDT risk areas.

A broken band of pre-frontal convection should be ongoing at 12Z
Monday from the lee of the southern Appalachians to the FL
Panhandle. The downstream environment will already be favorable for
supercells including strong tornado potential. With mid to upper 60s
surface dew points and initially modestly steep mid-level lapse
rates, a plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
should diurnally expand from north FL through at least SC. Any
semi-discrete supercells in this environment will have the potential
to produce a strong tornado and large hail through early afternoon
before large-scale outflow likely shifts offshore of the GA/north FL
coast.

Destabilization farther north from NC to the DE Valley appears more
uncertain, with potential for near-coastal convection within the
low-level warm conveyor limiting more expansive/robust
boundary-layer heating. A plume of weak MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg
should still develop across the Piedmont into parts of the coastal
plain. Although flow fields will be highly meridional, they will be
quite strong with an intense 700-mb jet strengthening across the
Southeast behind the surface cold front. This will yield enlarged
low-level hodograph curvature across much of the pre-frontal
warm-moist sector.

Even weak boundary-layer heating will be sufficient for
intensification of an extensive QLCS from western to central
portions of NY/PA southward through VA/NC towards midday/early
afternoon. Embedded supercell structures should be most pronounced
south, where breaks in the QLCS are more probable. Some of these
could be long-track with sporadic strong tornadoes, in addition to
the background widespread damaging winds anticipated with the QLCS.
This activity will eventually interact with cool trajectories near
the coastal Atlantic and should result in waning of severe potential
in the Northeast near sunset.

..Grams.. 03/15/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160545
SWODY2
SPC AC 160543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, a large upper trough will rapidly eject across the
northeastern States, with a cold front over the western Atlantic and
trailing southwestward across far southern FL/Straits at 12Z
Tuesday. Dry air behind this front should continue to shunt moisture
off the FL Peninsula, although an elevated band of weak instability
may remain atop the cooler air mass. Overall, thunderstorm potential
will be extremely limited for southern Florida, but a few showers
and isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out.

Elsewhere around the CONUS, cool and/or stable conditions will
prevail, with high pressure at the surface.

..Jewell.. 03/16/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161731
SWODY2
SPC AC 161729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
With the trailing portion of a cold front expected to have exited
the Eastern Seaboard by 12Z Tuesday, any lingering deep convection
near the front should be relegated to the FL Straits during the mid
to late morning. An expansive surface anticyclone, initially
centered over far southeast TX/Lower Sabine Valley vicinity, will
maintain a pervasive continental air mass across the northern Gulf.
Conditions will be too hostile for lightning-producing convection
across the CONUS through the period.

..Grams.. 03/16/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170434
SWODY2
SPC AC 170432

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will exist over the eastern states, with an
upper high prominently situated over the Southwest. High pressure
will cover most of the CONUS, with dry offshore flow from the East
Coast into the Gulf of America. As such, the pattern will offer
little potential for destabilization or thunderstorms. However,
relative moisture from the Bahamas into the FL Straits may support a
few weak oceanic thunderstorms, most likely just off the FL
Peninsula.

..Jewell.. 03/17/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171638
SWODY2
SPC AC 171636

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

An amplified upper pattern characterized by a trough in the East and
a ridge/upper high in the West will persist on Wednesday. Surface
high pressure across the East/Southeast will foster offshore flow
and a dry and stable airmass will prevail across most of the CONUS.
Modest boundary layer moisture will exist across far South FL and
the Keys, with a stalled front offshore across the FL Straits. A few thunderstorms are possible near this boundary, but are expected to
mainly remain offshore.

..Leitman.. 03/17/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180531
SWODY2
SPC AC 180529

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
An upper high will be centered over Arizona on Thursday, with a
large-scale upper ridge from CA into the southern High Plains. East
of there, northwest flow aloft will be maintained over the central
states, as elongated upper troughing persists along the East Coast.

At the surface, high pressure will be prevalent over much of the
CONUS, with centers over the Great Basin and from the Mid Atlantic
into the northern Gulf of America. Given this dry and stable
pattern, thunderstorms are not expected.

..Jewell.. 03/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181717
SWODY2
SPC AC 181715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Thursday,
with an upper ridge remaining in place over the western CONUS, and a
deep upper trough over the East. A general dearth of moisture and
instability will continue to limit thunderstorm potential over most
of the CONUS.

Near and offshore of the southeast FL Peninsula, modest moisture and instability may support weak convection as a midlevel shortwave
moves through the large-scale trough. This convection may pose a low
(around 10 percent) thunderstorm threat, mainly during the latter
half of the forecast period.

..Dean.. 03/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190528
SWODY2
SPC AC 190526

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A low chance of a few thunderstorms may develop on Friday near the
Upper Ohio Valley and vicinity, and also near the southeast Florida
coast.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain over the Southwest on Friday, with strong
northwest flow aloft along the Canadian border. A low-amplitude
upper wave will move from northern MN across the upper Great Lakes
late in the day and overnight, with a weak surface low moving from
the Great Lakes into the Northeast. A cold front will extend from
southwest Ontario into MO by 18Z, with southwesterly surface winds
helping to bring a plume of low to mid 50s F dewpoints as far north
as OH and western PA.

Marginal low-level moistening and daytime heating will lead to weak instability, which may support isolated thunderstorms developing
within the warm advection zone into the Upper OH Valley and
vicinity. Severe storms are not forecast due to the weak
instability, however, veering winds with height and good deep-layer
shear will support cellular activity, perhaps with very
small/non-severe hail.

Elsewhere, the tail-end of the western Atlantic trough will maintain
cool temperatures aloft over FL. This will support afternoon
destabilization, with isolated activity near the eastern shores
where localized surface convergence may develop.

..Jewell.. 03/19/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191732
SWODY2
SPC AC 191730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ON THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Upper Ohio Valley, mainly late Friday afternoon into Friday
evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain in place over the Southwest on Friday,
while a large-scale upper trough will cover much of the eastern
CONUS. Within the large-scale trough, an embedded shortwave will
move from the Upper Great Lakes towards the northern Mid Atlantic
and New England. A surface low will move from parts of lower MI
toward New England through the period, as trailing cold front moves
across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic.

...Parts of the mid/upper Ohio Valley...
Modest low-level moisture will return through the day along/ahead of
the approaching cold front across parts of the Ohio Valley/Allegheny
Plateau region. Regarding prefrontal dewpoints, guidance generally
ranges from the low 50s F (HRRR/WRF-ARW) to mid/upper 50s F (NAM and
other HREF members). In the presence of strong deep-layer
flow/shear, the magnitude of moisture return will determine the
level and areal extent of any organized severe potential.

If moisture return becomes sufficient to support MLCAPE of around
500 J/kg or greater, then a few stronger updrafts and perhaps
marginal supercell structures could develop by late afternoon or
early evening, as convective temperatures are approached or breached
and glancing large-scale ascent impinges upon the region. Despite
the generally weak instability, any robust storms could pose a
threat of marginally severe hail and perhaps locally gusty/damaging
winds, given the presence of favorable shear and rather cold
temperatures aloft. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, though
this will be more conditional on richer low-level moisture return
and maintenance of surface-based convection.

With generally low-quality moisture noted in Thursday morning
observations, sufficient moisture return for an organized severe
threat on Friday remains quite uncertain. However, given the
presence of very favorable wind profiles and at least some signal
for near-surface-based storm development during the late afternoon
and evening, a conditional Marginal Risk has been added for Friday
across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley. A conditionally favorable
environment will extend outside of the Marginal Risk into parts of
the mid/lower Ohio Valley, but the signal for storm development
currently decreases substantially with southwestward extent.

..Dean.. 03/19/2026

$$

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