ACUS11 KWNS 311840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311840=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-312245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0068
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Areas affected...parts of eastern North Carolina and adjacent
southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 311840Z - 312245Z

SUMMARY...A period of sustained moderate to heavy snow rates
approaching and occasionally exceeding 1 inch per hour appears to be
developing and likely to continue through around 6-7 PM EST.

DISCUSSION...Longer term radar loops indicate increasing
precipitation rates within a zone of stronger lower/mid-tropospheric
warm advection and frontogenetic forcing, extending from just inland
of North Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal areas
east-northeastward offshore. Across and inland of the coast,
thermodynamic profiles are largely sub-freezing, with Rapid Refresh
forecast soundings indicating modest precipitable water around .4 to
.5 inches along this corridor.=20=20

These same soundings suggest lift becoming maximized within
temperatures most conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth
(roughly in the 700-600 mb layer) through 21-00Z, and becoming
focused near the Virginia/North Carolina border, near but perhaps
remaining just south of the Norfolk/Virginia Beach vicinity, before
stronger forcing tends to shift east of coastal areas this evening.=20
It appears that this probably will be accompanied by a sustained
period of moderate to heavy snow rates approaching and occasionally
exceeding 1 inch per hour.

..Kerr.. 01/31/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8CEycyVgOFF90yX-uU46kxaFoiHvXRQeNr46K69JksSQR33EwjBvzAuqr9_4R2yfpi5kbN928= Xyd0yMeUyHJfuiDY74$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON 36347730 37167535 35607528 34937712 35637749 36347730=20


=3D =3D =3D
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