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  • MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jan 24 03:24:29 2026
    AWUS01 KWNH 240324
    FFGMPD
    TXZ000-240922-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0015
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    1023 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

    Areas affected...portions of central Texas and the Hill Country

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 240322Z - 240922Z

    Summary...Flash flooding is possible on a localized basis through
    09Z/3a Central. Areas of thunderstorms are developing and will
    move slow enough to provide 1-2 inch/hr rain rates at times.

    Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts an uptick in
    scattered convection across the Texas Hill Country just north of a
    surface cold front extending from near Del Rio to near San
    Antonio. The storms were embedded in a strongly sheared
    environment, with elevated instability just north of the front
    (500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) supporting the uptick in convection. Weak
    mid-level shortwave troughs were approaching from the higher
    terrain of northern Mexico, also helping to ignite convection. A
    close inspection of both point forecast soundings and RAOBs depict
    updrafts rooted at around 850mb, with wind fields supporting local
    right-moving storm motions of 10-15 knots. These slow storm
    motions were combining with 1-1.4 inch PW values to support
    estimated rain rates of around 1.5 inch/hr with convection that
    has become established near Kerrville. These rates are enough to
    prompt localized flash flood concerns given sensitive/varied
    terrain and low spots across the region.

    The ongoing forecast scenario will continue for at least the next
    6 hours. Deeper, slower-moving convection (potentially with right-moving/supercellular characteristics despite being elevated
    above the shallow stable layer) will continue to develop
    occasionally, but also remain tied to the slow southward progress
    of the cold front. Spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates will gradually shift/develop southward and eastward toward the I-35 and I-10
    corridors over time. Isolated instances of flash flooding are
    possible where these locally heavier rain rates can materialize
    over/near sensitive terrain.

    Cook

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-cXGI7RBYXOKdL9gC7Nr8Jofd7VtdRre4M3b0gjXeET4JN2gues8uAti2K-cBKlFviZ2= w3_uxdIeaSVqXw3hk73w5cU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

    ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

    LAT...LON 30819890 30559786 29929754 29189767 28489889=20
    28780009 29360103 29810147 30460160 30790051=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

    =3D =3D =3D
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    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jan 24 10:33:04 2026
    AWUS01 KWNH 241033
    FFGMPD
    TXZ000-241431-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0016
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    531 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

    Areas affected...southeast Texas

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 241031Z - 241431Z

    Summary...Flash flood potential will increase over the next 2-4
    hours near Houston Metro and surrounding areas.

    Discussion...Persistent warm advection across southeast Texas has
    maintained elevated buoyancy atop a frontal zone draped
    east-to-west across the discussion area. This buoyancy, combined
    with isentropic upglide and a weak mid-level disturbance
    approaching the region has triggered increasing deep convection
    about 60 miles west/southwest of Houston Metro. These cells were
    slightly elevated, but were also in an environment with ~1.5 inch
    PW values, supporting locally heavy rainfall. Recent MRMS data
    suggests 1 inch/hr rates beneath the stronger activity.

    On their current trajectory, these cells will migrate toward areas
    near Houston Metro and points south over the next couple hours or
    so. 1 inch/hr rain rates could contribute to urban
    ponding/excessive runoff especially if localized training can be
    established. Flash flooding is possible in this scenario.

    The flash flood threat in this region will likely last for about
    2-4 hoursor so. A strong cold front was surging southeastward
    along a line from near Victoria to Cotulla. This front will
    eventually undercut ongoing convection as it approaches the Gulf
    Coast through 13-14Z (7-8am Central). Any flash flood threat
    should decrease some behind this front as colder air filters in
    and contributes to stabilization.

    Cook

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_1NuyYPZ4es-I3lma45_GvQgXOYkNnYwgeBrX0QG7FE3UUPqpMC_QW6qIfL4d563QYlE= QeUPL8lo4eilv0gXvbb0KjM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

    ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

    LAT...LON 30509549 30309452 29749446 28879538 28459699=20
    28869758 29829739 30299658=20

    =3D =3D =3D
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    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)