ACUS48 KWNS 170856
SWOD48
SPC AC 170855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during
the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the
country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may
develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and
possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend.
These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the
TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the
Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a
developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain
shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across
portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early
Thursday morning.

Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced
southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the
weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions
of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance
varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor.

..Leitman.. 01/17/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 180847
SWOD48
SPC AC 180845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the Plains
and eastern U.S. on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. As this occurs, some modest
Gulf moisture will spread across east TX toward the Lower MS Valley
ahead of a cold front. Some low potential for thunderstorms will be
possible, but the modest moisture return will limit instability and
severe potential is low.

Beyond Day 5/Thu, forecast guidance is not in very good agreement
with large spread resulting in greater than normal uncertainty. The
control member of the ECMWF appears to be an outlier, showing some
increasing severe potential across the Gulf Coast states toward the
end of the forecast period. However, the GFS and EC-AIFS keep any
Gulf moisture offshore, precluding severe potential. Given these
large model discrepancies, severe probabilities seem low for now.

..Leitman.. 01/18/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 190932
SWOD48
SPC AC 190931

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential is expected to be low during the Day 4-8 period.
Some modest Gulf moisture will impinge on the coastal regions from
TX into MS/AL/FL beginning Day 4/Thu. Warm advection will allow for
showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, but weak forcing for
ascent and only very minor instability will preclude severe
potential. By Day 5-6/Fri-Sat, a deepening upper trough over the
western U.S. will develop east across portions of the Plains and
Midwest. A strong arctic cold front will move across the middle of
the country, ushering in another punch of cold to very cold air and
once again shunting Gulf moisture offshore. Some thunderstorm
activity could occur ahead of this front across the Gulf coast
states, but deeper moisture return is not expected and will be
insufficient for severe storms. Surface high pressure and a
cold/stable airmass will persist over much of the CONUS behind the
arctic cold front on Days 7-8/Sun-Mon.

..Leitman.. 01/19/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 200853
SWOD48
SPC AC 200852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the
Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and
cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country
throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could
develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days
4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast.
Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf
Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated
thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday
afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the
Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should
remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to
convection becoming undercut by the cold front.

..Leitman.. 01/20/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 210837
SWOD48
SPC AC 210835

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper trough will shift from the Rockies through the
central and eastern CONUS Days 4-6/Sat-Mon. As this occurs, a very
cold airmass will overspread much of the country, with a swath of
winter precipitation expected to spread from the southern Plains
through the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, model guidance varies, but
a deepening low is expected to develop over the central Gulf Coast
vicinity on Saturday night/early Sunday. The low and trailing cold
front will move offshore the Atlantic coast by early Monday.
Depending how far north the surface low develops, some thunderstorm
potential could increase across parts of the central Gulf Coast and
the FL Panhandle on Sunday. However, severe storms appear unlikely.
The very cold airmass settling over much of the country during the
weekend is likely to persist into early next week, precluding
thunderstorm potential through the end of the period.

..Leitman.. 01/21/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 220856
SWOD48
SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will
develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the
Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue
to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front,
modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak
instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and
warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated
thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern
GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe
potential within the warm sector.

By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the
Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of
the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing
reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the
Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin.

..Leitman.. 01/22/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 230955
SWOD48
SPC AC 230953

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through next week
with troughing generally over the East and a building ridge to the
West. This will favor continued northwesterly flow aloft and
reinforcement of an extensive cold air outbreak and Arctic high
pressure over the lower 48. With little to no inland moisture
transport expected over the next week, severe weather is unlikely.

..Lyons.. 01/23/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 240957
SWOD48
SPC AC 240956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the
remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in
the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple
perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same
time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor
northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow
for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry
and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through
day 8.

..Lyons.. 01/24/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 250950
SWOD48
SPC AC 250948

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather concerns are negligible for the extended forecast
period. Continued eastern US troughing, reinforced by northwesterly
flow out of southern Canada will replenish a cold, dry and stable
air mass underneath Arctic high Pressure. While some surface
cyclogenesis appears possible over the eastern Gulf and Atlantic
coast into next weekend, offshore winds should preclude robust
moisture return, negating any thunderstorm or severe risk for the
next several days.

..Lyons.. 01/25/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 261000
SWOD48
SPC AC 260958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A
robust Arctic air mass associated with continued troughing over the
eastern US will be reinforced by several additional perturbations
moving out of Canada and a building western US ridge. As the flow
pattern aloft amplifies, surface cyclogenesis appears possible over
the eastern Gulf and Atlantic seaboard this weekend, further
increasing offshore flow and limiting substantial inland moisture return/destabilization. Thus, thunderstorm potential appears
negligible through the extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 01/26/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 270951
SWOD48
SPC AC 270950

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential in the extended forecast period is very
low. Broad-scale eastern US troughing will strengthen this weekend
as a clipper-style trough dives out of Canada an rapidly intensifies
along the Eastern Seaboard. A surface low will develop over the
eastern Gulf and rapidly deepen over the western Atlantic into early
next week. Western US ridging and strong surface high pressure over
the central US will keep substantial inland moisture return unlikely
for the foreseeable future.

..Lyons.. 01/27/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 280957
SWOD48
SPC AC 280956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A
highly amplified mid-level flow pattern over the CONUS will continue
through this weekend and into the first part of next week. A
prominent upper low will amplify over the East Coast as a strong
surface cyclone develops offshore. Ridging over the western US will
support strong high pressure and a cold/dry continental air mass
over much of the US. This will largely suppress inland moisture
transport, outside of far south FL, and subsequent thunderstorm
potential for the next several days.

..Lyons.. 01/28/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 290943
SWOD48
SPC AC 290942

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast
period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale
troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several
other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft
and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will
reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely
suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable
future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf
Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week,
overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the
extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 01/29/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 301001
SWOD48
SPC AC 301000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will continue throughout the Day 4 to 8
period across much of the nation, as a series of shortwave troughs
move southeastward through the flow. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible from Tuesday into Wednesday across
parts of the Southeast as a trough moves eastward into the eastern
U.S. Weak moisture return ahead of the trough is expected to keep
the stronger instability over the northern Gulf of America. For this
reason, a severe threat is not forecast with this system. Late in
the week, a cold and dry airmass will likely make thunderstorms
unfavorable across the continental U.S.

..Broyles.. 01/30/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 310959
SWOD48
SPC AC 310958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Embedded within broad midlevel troughing over the eastern half of
the CONUS, a shortwave trough will overspread the OH/TN Valleys and
Southeast on Days 4-5/Tuesday-Wednesday. During that time, isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will be possible along an accompanying
cold front as it moves from east TX across the central Gulf Coast.
However, limited moisture/buoyancy ahead of the front should limit
severe potential.

Thereafter, a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude
thunderstorms across the CONUS.

..Weinman.. 01/31/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 010929
SWOD48
SPC AC 010928

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A midlevel trough and related cold front will move eastward across
the Southeast and FL Peninsula on Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. While
isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front as it
overspreads the central/eastern Gulf Coast states, limited
moisture/buoyancy will keep the severe risk low. Thereafter,
strengthening deep-layer northwesterly flow over the MS/OH Valleys
will reinforce large-scale troughing over the eastern U.S. and
western Atlantic. This will favor a prolonged period of dry,
offshore flow -- limiting thunderstorm potential across the CONUS.

..Weinman.. 02/01/2026

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