ACUS03 KWNS 291903
SWODY3
SPC AC 291902
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Saturday through
Saturday night appear less than 10 percent.
...Discussion...
Models suggest that short waves within split flow across the eastern
Pacific into western North America will remain progressive Saturday
through Saturday night. This includes a large and vigorous, but
slowly weakening, mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone
within the primary belt of westerlies, which are forecast to
approach coastal areas from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest.
While colder mid-level temperatures, potentially supportive of weak boundary-layer destabilization, are forecast to remain offshore, the
leading edge of stronger mid-level height falls may begin spreading
inland of the Pacific coast during the latter half of the period.
It appears an evolving mid-level high in the southern mid-latitudes
will be forced inland across southern California into the southern
Great Basin, with a trailing cyclonic circulation approaching
northern Baja. However, models indicate that amplified downstream
mid-level ridging will be maintained through at least this period
across the Canadian Rockies and adjacent Prairies into the northern
U.S. Intermountain Region and Rockies.
Digging short waves to the lee of this ridge will reinforce
large-scale troughing east of the Rockies through the U.S. Atlantic
Seaboard. However, the most prominent perturbation within this
regime is forecast to pivot across and offshore of the southern
Atlantic Seaboard. As it does, it appears that a broad offshore
surface low will undergo notable deepening.
While considerable spread remains evident in association with
developments across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard, it
appears that this may include at least a couple of areas of
significant embedded cyclogenesis by late Saturday night. One
cyclone may continue to deepen along a frontal zone northeast of the
Bahamas, across and north/northeast of the Bermuda vicinity, with
higher moisture content generally confined to areas along and
southeast of this track.
Along a stronger baroclinic zone closer to the Carolina coast, it
appears that a much more rapidly deepening and stronger, but
similarly compact, cyclone may develop to the east of the coastal
waters. However, within a cooler/drier environment, models suggest
that any destabilization potentially supportive of thunderstorm
development may be confined to areas well offshore, near the Gulf
Stream.
..Kerr.. 01/29/2026
$$
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