ACUS11 KWNS 192304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192303=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-200100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2210
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Areas affected...Northwest Texas into far southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 192303Z - 200100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in
intensity and coverage through the evening hours. Isolated to
scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, and will mainly pose a
large hail threat.

DISCUSSION...GOES imagery over the past 40 minutes reveals a pair of
deeper convective updrafts along/north of the I-20 corridor with shallower/weaker cells closer to the DFW metro area. This comes as
ascent ahead of a large-scale upper wave gradually overspreads the
region where capping has become very weak/negligible owing to warm
surface temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. Broad-scale
ascent will continue to increase through the evening as the wave
shifts east, resulting in a gradual increase in thunderstorm
coverage through the evening across northern TX into the Red River
Valley. Modest mid-level lapse rates will likely favor a slow uptick
in convective intensity, but strong mid/high-level flow will provide
adequate deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the
potential for splitting supercells once storms become sufficiently
deep. Given weak flow in the lowest few kilometers (per regional
VWPs) the primary risk should be large hail (most likely 1 to 2
inches), though sporadic severe winds are also possible. It remains
somewhat unclear how many intense storms will emerge across northern TX/southern OK due to the potential for destructive storm
interactions/upscale growth; however, this region may be the
relatively best corridor for severe storms over the next few hours.
Watch issuance is not imminent, but trends will be monitored.

..Moore/Smith.. 11/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4LmHl4VftogOIfoClZX4_ovueA_bVUKjNMy40q2aF7t6jUdUq8_ratRaZSdRTSb9YYsyxp_E8= GQCodIureIde-bOASw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32320015 32340030 32460048 32710066 33020066 33280042
34219901 34369860 34389833 34429791 34249694 34129672
33899646 33599636 33299640 33019658 32769690 32649732
32259977 32320015=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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