AWUS01 KWNH 171004
FFGMPD
CAZ000-171600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1227
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern and central California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171001Z - 171600Z

Summary...A stout mid-level wave west of Eureka was prompting
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across a broad part of
northern and central California. These trends will continue for
the next few hours, and areas of 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rain rates are
possible. A few instances of flash flooding could occur in
sensitive areas and near burn scars.

Discussion...A vigorous mid-level wave was providing ascent for
several areas of convection 1) just west of Eureka over open
Pacific waters and 2) along an axis from Redding south-southwest
to near Monterrey. Over the past hour, more robust convective
activity (with lightning) developed near/south of San Francisco
and moved inland. Both of these regimes were responsible for
areas of 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rain rates. The Redding/Monterrey
convective band was being forced by a strong front moving
southeastward across the region. PW values of 1 inch along and
ahead of the front near the coast was aiding in the heavier rain
rates.

Over time, as the aforementioned front shifts southward across the
state, strong upslope flow will aid in continued moderate to heavy
rainfall and a few instances of flash flooding especially along
upwind areas of the Sierra. The front will also aid in occasional
bursts of heavier rainfall along coastal areas from Monterrey
southward toward the Transverse Ranges/Santa Barbara County
through 16Z/8a Pacific time. Sensitive areas/burn scars could
experience another round of debris flows and excessive runoff.

Another more conditional risk for heavier rainfall will occur near
the center of the mid/upper trough near Eureka. Slow-moving
convection was being supported by ascent from the trough and very
cold temps aloft (-20 to -24C @ 500 mb). A conditional risk of
heavier rainfall occurring over land areas between Eureka and
Santa Rosa exists. Flash flooding is also possible with this
activity.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!560lrQV056m3xGBG0stbT-bHIATx0Z9HQM1S20SgYEgnUXhKzyUrzp017a7UzT6gmk9-= EVim_853cWsvqz4dxWXL1b0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...HNX...LOX...MFR...MTR...REV...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41372415 41372308 41312155 40062055 37211977=20
35161959 34441983 34832081 36762232 38532342=20
39742426 40652451=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 171014
FFGMPD
CAZ000-171600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1227
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
514 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern and central California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171001Z - 171600Z

Summary...A stout mid-level wave west of Eureka was prompting
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across a broad part of
northern and central California. These trends will continue for
the next few hours, and areas of 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rain rates are
possible. A few instances of flash flooding could occur in
sensitive areas and near burn scars.

Discussion...A vigorous mid-level wave was providing ascent for
several areas of convection 1) just west of Eureka over open
Pacific waters and 2) along an axis from Redding south-southwest
to near Monterrey. Over the past hour, more robust convective
activity (with lightning) developed near/south of San Francisco
and moved inland. Both of these regimes were responsible for
areas of 0.5-0.75 inch/hr rain rates. The Redding/Monterrey
convective band was being forced by a strong front moving
southeastward across the region. PW values of 1 inch along and
ahead of the front near the coast was aiding in the heavier rain
rates.

Over time, as the aforementioned front shifts southward across the
state, strong upslope flow will aid in continued moderate to heavy
rainfall and a few instances of flash flooding especially along
upwind areas of the Sierra. The front will also aid in occasional
bursts of heavier rainfall along coastal areas from Monterrey
southward toward the Transverse Ranges/Santa Barbara County
through 16Z/8a Pacific time. Sensitive areas/burn scars could
experience another round of debris flows and excessive runoff.

Another more conditional risk for heavier rainfall will occur near
the center of the mid/upper trough near Eureka. Slow-moving
convection was being supported by ascent from the trough and very
cold temps aloft (-20 to -24C @ 500 mb). Heavier rainfall could
occur between Eureka and Santa Rosa. Flash flooding is also
possible with this activity.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8rzG_g6Z7dApF0i3lq4u5E6K6tP5BOaGy9fFex9v19JXKqseg8Owh9hveffNBlcDIn_G= wNucsI39g4QZODDfzDz9o8c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...HNX...LOX...MFR...MTR...REV...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41372415 41372308 41312155 40062055 37211977=20
35161959 34441983 34832081 36762232 38532342=20
39742426 40652451=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120514
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-120912-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1183
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
113 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...far west Texas, extreme southern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120512Z - 120912Z

Summary...Conditional flash flood potential exists around the El
Paso, TX area for the next few hours.

Discussion...Deep tropical convection associated with the remnants
of Raymond continue to stream from northwestern Mexico into far
west Texas currently. Recent radar/MRMS observations depict
training/repeating with a recent uptick in convective intensity in
a cluster about 35 miles southwest of El Paso. Rain rates remain
modest, however (around 0.25 inch/hr), but an uptick in rates has
been noted southwest of El Paso also. The cells are in an
abundantly moist environment with 1.3-1.6 inch PW values.=20
Additionally, 1000 J/kg MUCAPE was sustaining stronger updrafts
and likely resulting in the convective uptick noted in recent
radar trends.

These cells are likely to persist northeastward into the El Paso
area over the next 2-4 hours. Rain rates may be marginal for
flash flooding, although urban impacts in/near El Paso appear to
be possible. Rain rates may both 1) exceed 0.5 inch/hr and 2)
persist for longer than an hour, both supportive of excessive
rainfall potential.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4uTcT5x5bOUWNZ6xNC_M0PQQni-ylZF99KF4dcC-e-UpbGBmZ9ZnOAIgL_ENvhR_QDJb= HyBxkQsydWHXrkGj-D_bCgY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32780684 32610532 31840485 30350475 31490627=20
31730817 31380832 31570901 32220855=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120538
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-121037-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1184
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
137 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...northwestern Arizona, southern Utah

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120537Z - 121037Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are quickly developing across
the discussion area and producing 0.5-1.0 inch/hr rain rates. A
few instances of flash flooding are possible.

Discussion...Robust thunderstorm activity is being forced by the
approach of a stout mid-level disturbance over Nevada currently.=20
The storms are embedded within a warm/moist axis along the
Colorado River, with 0.7-0.9 inch PW values and a narrow axis of
1000 J/kg SBCAPE along the Nevada/Arizona border area.=20
Convergence within this axis was also supporting ongoing updrafts.
The storms were embedded in relatively fast deep layer flow
(approaching 50 knots per objective analyses), resulting in quick
storm motions. Localized backbuilding and training were the likely
mechanisms for enhancing local rain rates.

Unfortunately, these rates were falling in/near areas prone to
flooding, with slot canyons and local burn scars noted in the
area. Ongoing trends are expected to continue for at least a few
hours. Fast eastward storm motions may tend to carry some of the
convection eastward toward a slightly drier airmass with weaker
buoyancy, resulting in weakening. Meanwhile, some backbuilding
may occur within the remaining warm/moist axis in northwestern
Arizona, contributing to a localized flash flood threat there.=20
Models suggest that this convective threat should be relatively
short-lived, ending by 09-10Z as cooler/drier air filters into the
discussion area from the northwest.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_0SwQEhlfDReAPwWpzIzQjUrALF3GxWI77foRe-9F-okottKbSMgqIipQ7bHdyOkUkPX= -mHgrcbUliWrMtohKG6aF_A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38091207 37391099 35451202 34491323 34561438=20
35911468 37381378=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120812
FFGMPD
AZZ000-121411-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1185
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...southern/central Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 120811Z - 121411Z

Summary...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
increase in coverage through at least 13Z/7a MST this morning.=20
Areas of flash flooding are expected during that timeframe.

Discussion...Larger-scale ascent was beginning to overspread much
of the Southwest due to a stout mid-level wave centered over
Nevada and northwestern Utah. Meanwhile, a pool of 1000 J/kg
SBCAPE and weak inhibition has supported development of scattered
thunderstorms from the Phoenix area east to near Globe. The
storms are embedded in a moist airmass (1.1-1.5 inch PW values),
supporting rain rates at or above 1 inch/hr in the strongest
cells. Relatively quick movement has been noted owing to 40 knots
of mean steering flow. However, as cells continue to expand in
coverage and intensity, local mergers and backbuilding should also
bump rain rates to above 1 inch/hr at times. The flash flood
risk will increase as a result.

Models/CAMs suggest that the greatest concentration of
thunderstorm activity will reside along and just south of the
Mogollon Rim through 13Z/7a MST this morning. This includes the
Phoenix Metro area. Much of the discussion area remains well
ahead of any low-level boundaries that could stabilize this
airmass, and with continued ascent/height falls over the region,
flash flood potential will likely extend beyond 13Z/7a MST. Both
urban and sensitive/low-lying areas will have the greatest flash
flood risk.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5KHFFKLCfKHP79HS4HKsVvL2N0a3s-xJb_9m1OwSChAQUXuANbCvsiVKZ0v7LtkRGvIq= u6ucjJEG3YhQQhL9CEz7PrU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34471072 34050941 32830932 31381045 31801316=20
32601435 33471431 33951357 34201246=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121201
FFGMPD
SCZ000-121530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1186
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
801 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...central/northern SC coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121159Z - 121530Z

Summary...Localized high rain rates will continue a localized
flash flood threat for the central and northern coastline of SC
for another few hours. Hourly rainfall of 2-3 inches can be
expected at times.

Discussion...Localized heavy rain in and southeast of Georgetown
has resulted in MRMS estimates of 6 to 10 inches since midnight,
with a few Wunderground.com observations showing 6-7 inches in the
city and along the coast. A strong surface low (991 mb) has been
slow moving and was analyzed 115 miles east of Georgetown at 11Z
and a slow moving low level convergence axis has focused an area
of heavy rain containing hourly rainfall between 2-3 inches over
coastal Georgetown County over the past couple of hours. While
some weakening has occurred, VAD wind data showed ~50 kt of
925-850 mb winds oriented from the northeast, parallel to the
coast at KTLX, veering to a weaker and more perpendicular
orientation at KCLX. Aloft, a potent divergence maximum was
located along the coast of the Carolinas within the left-exit
region of a 90-100 kt jet streak, east of an upper low located
over the FL/GA border.

Short term RAP forecasts show the surface low finally begins to
make some northward progress over the next 6 hours along with a
disruption to the nearly stationary low level convergence axis due
to further weakening of the low level flow over southern NC and
veering of the low level winds along the central SC coast over the
next few hours. This should allow hourly rainfall values to lessen
while translating southward through 15Z. Until then however,
continued slow movement of heavy rain will maintain a localized
flash flood threat along the Grand Strand with additional rainfall
of 3 to 6 inches possible before expected weakening of rainfall
intensities.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9M6bl6rYLJauILWID5zfksfrEPk_qS1vLL9uhykKPT9FQF1fRT8Ctn6Vte8xF_bVNp0Y= 77fIcq5-CJ3JROmH5IY1qzk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33947966 33887900 33737869 33557848 33107858=20
33007873 32907930 33058024 33238047 33468048=20
33698029 33888006=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121402
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-121830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1187
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1001 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...central/southern AZ into western NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121400Z - 121830Z

SUMMARY...Scattered Thunderstorms are likely to continue a few
areas of flash flooding across central/southern AZ over the next
3-5 hours, possibly extending into western NM. Hourly rainfall
over 1 inch will be found within areas of training.

DISCUSSION...1330Z radar imagery across south-central AZ showed
scattered thunderstorms, with a history of backbuilding and
training, despite individual cell motions off toward the ENE at
20-30 kt. OSPO ALPW imagery showed that the cells were located
just ahead of a slow moving, north-south oriented, 850-700 mb
moisture gradient found over the lower CO River Valley with
notable directional shear between the KYUX and KIWA 850 mb wind
vectors. The moisture plume over AZ remained anomalously high with contributions from former T.C. Raymond in the eastern Pacific. SPC
mesoanalysis data from 12Z estimated PWAT values between 1.0 and
1.5 inches over the southern half of AZ along with 500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE over south-central to southwestern AZ. In addition, AZ was
situated within the right-entrance region of a 130+ kt upper level
jet max extending from southern NV into northwestern CO.

RAP forecasts over the next 3-6 hours show weakening 850-700 mb
moisture transport into southern AZ but some increase in
instability is expected over southwestern AZ due to the onset of
daytime heating and continued jet-induced divergence aloft will
remain. So while there are some conflicting signals for continued
thunderstorm generation, lingering forcing for ascent should
maintain thunderstorm formation over southwestern to south-central
AZ over at least the next 2-4 hours. Mean steering flow from the
WSW will continue periods of training as some backbuilding
continues to occur, resulting in hourly rainfall of at least 0.5
to 1.0 inches, but idealized training could result in 1-2 inches
in an hour. A few areas of flash flooding are likely to continue,
especially within the near-saturated ground conditions across the
I-8 and I-10 corridors to the SSW of Phoenix.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7CvMA4CCxnaj_imwspYmaKZ96HLsNeVMrki7GJBp4PWN5OG2h-rTDQx7H_mf8HNXVA86= 8E44IHoniiUZxA8NDcsDLso$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34750934 34160876 33390883 32380957 31781075=20
31521189 31641255 32091427 33051418 33751272=20
34511103=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121631
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-122200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1188
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1230 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...northern SC coast into southern NC coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121629Z - 122200Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding will remain a concern along the
northern coast of SC into the southern coast of NC into the
mid-afternoon hours. High rain rates of 2 to 3 in/hr are expected
at times, which may overlap with wet soils across the Grand Stand
region and/or the Wilmington metro.

Discussion...Visible satellite imagery showed that a surface low
offshore of the NC/SC coast has moved a little north since 12Z and
was estimated to be 993 mb and ~90 miles east of North Myrtle
Beach at 16Z. A strong axis of low level convergence southwest of
the surface low continued to focus an area of heavy rain along the
coast of Horry County, with local Wunderground observations
showing hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches since 13Z and 2-5 inches of
rain since midnight. Strong convergence also existed north of the
low along and just offshore of the southern NC coast along an
occluded frontal boundary as seen in visible satellite imagery.
Despite the strong convergence along the NC coast and 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE, deep convection has been lacking. In addition to this
area being beneath the dry slot of the cyclone as seen on water
vapor imagery, the 12Z sounding from MHX is telling, indicating a
warm nose at 675 mb, capping the otherwise weakly unstable
sounding.

Short term RAP forecasts show the surface low will continue a slow
northward motion through 00Z with an elevated instability gradient
hugging the NC coast, with 1000+ J/kg just offshore but quickly
lowering to <500 J/kg for inland locations. Low level convergence
to the southwest of the surface low will likely continue to focus
heavy showers/thunderstorms with 1 to 2+ in/hr rainfall for
another couple of hours, despite weak instability. This area may
drift or refocus just north of its present position.

Farther north toward Cape Lookout, it would only take cooling of
~2 C within the warm nose noted on the MHX sounding to support the
production of deep convection which would be capable of hourly
rainfall between 2 and 3 inches given the forecast of near
stationary movement of the coastal convergence axis. While this
development would be highly conditional, it is worth highlighting.

Therefore, while localized, a flash flood threat will remain
likely from the northern SC coast into the southern NC coast
through 21 to 22Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-MGmYAWFLP-8h-N2F2SLpu7JCGZPpXWLFV4r3tDZoxOW7cV0nQYMFNcr8PGC8l-ePmiE= UAiROu1FlKZ5wG-PtqmGJDw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35057725 34887687 34707655 34447646 34227663=20
33727769 33157852 33087933 33497983 33887982=20
34417925 34737862 35047795=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 121829
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-130025-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1189
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...southwestern to south-central to southeastern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 121828Z - 130025Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered flash flooding appears likely to
continue over portions of southwestern to south-central to
southeastern AZ through 00Z. Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour
or less time should be expected within training of stronger cells.

DISCUSSION...GOES West water vapor and visible satellite imagery
at 18Z showed thunderstorms forming just ahead of the southeastern
leading edge of a longwave trough over the western U.S., and
within the right-entrance region of an associated 130-150 kt upper
level jet max over northern AZ into UT and western CO. A WSW to
ENE axis of thunderstorms has been persistent over the past
several hours from southwestern AZ to locations just south of the
Mogollon Rim in eastern AZ. These storms were forming within
500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and PWATs of 1.0 to 1.5 inches per 18Z SPC
mesoanalysis data. Also of note, visible imagery showed a surface
low over the northern Gulf of California, with warm/moist air
feeding northward to the east of the surface low into northwestern
Sonora and southern Yuma County.

Over the next few hours, thunderstorms are expected to continue
regenerating over southwestern AZ, with low level moisture
transport on the eastern side of the Gulf low, with individual
cell movement toward the ENE. Farther to the east, visible imagery
showed outflow propagating southward from Pinal and southern
Maricopa counties into northwestern Pima County. Surface heating
between breaks in cloud cover over south-central and portions of
southeastern AZ should allow for increasing instability with peak
heating this afternoon. Development of additional storms along
outflow and diurnal development along areas of higher terrain,
south of the ongoing WSW to ENE axis to the north, should increase
thunderstorm coverage through 21Z-00Z.

The combination of these several different forcing mechanisms
should support scattered coverage of thunderstorms through the
afternoon along with isolated to scattered coverage of flash
flooding with hourly rainfall totals maxing out in the 1 to 2 inch
range and potential for isolated totals near 3 inches.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7oN7bYhG37msCKXOgYR3jbNNsmojlcqoqFccUKN3uUyV6GLvhIHTFLF6BVQ2Y-Ux3gjy= rmnzjmZ1qqBXuMYwNMp7KRg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34011025 33890934 33000896 32010906 31380965=20
31111064 31291187 31921376 32161455 32591460=20
32891345 33711147=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 122202
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-130400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1190
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...Northeast SC...Southern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 122200Z - 130400Z

SUMMARY...Highly concentrated areas of heavy rainfall will
continue to foster flash flooding impacts, some potentially
significant, across portions of northeast SC and southern NC going
into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...A strong coastal low continues to positioned just
offshore of southeast NC to the east of Wilmington. A combination
of this and the relatively strong area of high pressure over
southeast Canada continues to channel a strong and very moist
low-level jet into the western flank of the low center where there
is currently a strongly forced environment for heavy rainfall and
embedded convection.

The 850/925 mb flow across southeast NC and into adjacent areas of
far northeast SC is on the order of 40 to 50 kts. This is yielding
strong moisture convergence which coupled with a nose of modest
instability with MUCAPE values of 250 to 500 J/kg and notable
divergence aloft for deep layer ascent is continuing to foster
highly concentrated areas of very heavy rainfall.

In fact the last radar imagery shows an axis of extremely heavy
rainfall with embedded thunderstorms impacting Columbus County in
southeast NC, and wrapping westward into Horry and Dillon Counties
of northeast SC. Rainfall rates are currently on the order of 1.5
to 2.5 inches/hour across these areas, and some rainfall totals
here of 3 to 6 inches have occurred in the last 6 hours alone.

Fortunately, the heaviest rains have pulled away from areas of
northeast SC (especially along the Grand Strand) that were hard
hit this morning and midday from very heavy rainfall totals, but
the slow movement and concentrated nature of the current activity
near the SC/NC border will support notable concerns in the
near-term for additional heavy to extreme rainfall amounts. An
additional 3 to 6 inches of rain will be possible at least locally
this evening, and this will favor additional areas of flash
flooding, some of which may be locally significant.

By later this evening, the surface low should begin to weaken as
the low becomes more vertically stacked, and this will allow for
the deeper layer ascent to subside along with the rainfall rates.
Therefore, conditions are expected to gradually improve later
tonight.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4L8ZzFVuIyGn9B93YrY6I7bclVPXxiM0vD4PqVPCOyRwbcANCiayCfYMOHLE0e-0QMqj= t96ZY9h5wCl_OqufwQHJsHE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34927906 34877804 34537752 33917775 33647859=20
33087923 33298005 33948033 34537994=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130018
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-130515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1191
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
815 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...Southern AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130015Z - 130515Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue through the evening hours. Additional areas
of flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...There continues to be the redevelopment of locally
heavy showers and thunderstorms across much of southern AZ, with
the late-day GOES-W IR satellite imagery showing scattered areas
of moderately cold-topped convection. The activity continues to be
fostered by an unstable and moist boundary layer characterized by
MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg along with presence of
favorable right-entrance region upper-level jet dynamics.

Moisture remains well-entrenched across the region with PWs of
1.25 to 1.5+ inches which for this time of the year are a solid 3
to 4 standard deviations above normal. Some of the moisture at
least in the low-levels across southern AZ is being aided by
southerly flow off the very warm and moist northern Gulf of CA
which has been facilitated by placement of a weak area of low
pressure and an associated surface trough.

This moisture coupled with the instability continues to support
convection capable of producing high rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour. Additionally, there is a fair amount of effective
bulk shear overhead with magnitudes of 30 to 40+ kts. This coupled
with the instability has been yielding some organized convective
structures with enhanced updrafts and thus sustainment of heavier
rainfall rates.

The loss of daytime heating suggests at least a gradual weakening
trend of convection by later this evening, but at least for the
near-term, there should continue to be sufficient levels of at
least modest deep layer jet-aided ascent and instability for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to persist. Local orographics
involving areas of terrain will also facilitate pockets of
convective sustenance.

Additional rainfall totals by late this evening may reach 2+
inches where any convective cells persist or locally repeat over
the same area. This may drive some additional pockets of flash
flooding which will mainly be a concern for the normally dry
washes, but could also involve some localized urban impacts around
the Tucson metropolitan area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-YEL2OR_R9nVQKu6jESrZY6TyJn6HIQPQyFv9I-sxKXKZtGhC_v6tKrAWMpvr3SV9Ayr= BlzC6WR-t86FsYtTyHMzgj0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32860959 32520906 31880894 31470910 31220981=20
31221119 31341186 31741295 32181308 32541273=20
32661217 32671099=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260645
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-261230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1214
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Lower Mississippi River Valley...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260645Z - 261230Z

SUMMARY...Large MCS cluster will continue to produce 1.5-2"/hr
rates and streaks of 2-3.5" totals as it progresses across the
Lower MS River Valley through early morning. Scattered incidents
of localized flash flooding remain possible, especially near
urban/poor drainage areas.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows slightly unbalanced closed low
has core of vorticity swinging with weak negative tilt from the
center in SE OK across central LA. Further aloft, nearly ideal
diffluent dual jet structure is providing about 30-45 degrees of
split and strong divergence aloft to evacuate and maintain broad
meso-scale ascent along and downstream of the shortwave trof.=20
Regional RADAR mosaic denotes a weak MCV-like wave riding
northeastward along the western side of the progressive
squall-line located just west of ESF. Low to mid-level flow
continues to respond with strong LLJ of 20-30kts extending from
the upper TX coast through the Mouth of the MS all confluent
downstream of this wave. Total PWats are nearing 2" given the
overall piling of low to mid-level moisture and wedge of WAA
remains fairly unstable with uncapped MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg
up to the AR/MS/LA border and as high as 1500 J/kg south of Baton
Rouge. As such, the strong moisture flux will maintain 1.75"/hr
rates with occasional uptick toward 2"/hr where storm scale
convergence is maximized.=20

While the upper-low still is advancing at a solid eastward
progression, the deep layer steering flow is starting to shift
from SW-NE toward a more S to NNE angle. Downstream
training/repeating will continue to allow for 2-3.5" streaks of
rainfall in a 2-3 hour period generally between I-20 and I-10
mainly as the instability reduces further north with time. More
scattered but stronger cells may be capable of slightly higher
rates, but duration is likely to be a bit more limited in/along
the I-10 corridor.=20=20

Hydrologically, FFG is 2-3"/hr (lower north of I-20) and
3-4"/3hrs, so overall totals will be near those values suggesting
scattered localized flash flooding remains possible with highest
risk of flash flooding in urban locales due to impermeable
surfaces and higher runoff. So all considered, flash flooding is
considered possible through 12z.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67Am17KXkXDdRIACj7ZxMsXJ217SGU2qQRBq71MGCB2Dw2JxLjp0OCR6bYw0QKEfeUOt= vQIX0lmai_G2QxP21xKO610$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33469015 33158953 32578923 31398933 29848973=20
28939002 29019097 29619317 30579278 31869218=20
33109162 33419113=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261258
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-261856-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1215
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
857 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261256Z - 261856Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered flash flooding will remain
possible through the morning and into the early afternoon across
portions of the central Gulf Coast as convection slowly moves
eastward.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows areas of heavy rainfall
continuing to move eastward across portions of southeast LA and
southern MS this morning. IR imagery indicates colder cloud tops
are being maintained, and GLM shows plenty of lightning activity.
This convection is being supported by strong synoptic ascent ahead
of a closed mid level low and within a strongly divergent region
of the upper level flow. Meanwhile, 30 to 40 kts of low level
south to south southeasterly flow is producing strong moisture
transport and convergence. The better instability is confined
closer to the coast, suggesting the highest rainfall rates should
be across southeast LA into far southern MS. However some of the
stronger low level convergence is farther north, which should help
compensate for the lower instability and drive some localized
higher rainfall rates here as well. The convection will continue
to progress off to the east, limiting the duration of highest
rates. However, some brief backbuilding/training of cells into the
strong low level inflow will continue to support some areas of
more persistent rainfall rates. Hourly rainfall should continue to
locally get into the 2-3" range.

Recent HRRR runs continue to indicate 1-3" of rain within the MPD
area, with localized totals over 3". Recent RRFS runs are a bit
higher, showing localized max values over 5" through 19z. Overall
think a compromise of the two is most likely, with localized
rainfall amounts getting into the 3-5" range through 19z where
some brief backbuilding is able to locally extend the duration of
higher rates. Will also note that the HRRR is probably a bit slow
with the eastward progression of the convection, with the RRFS
probably better with the idea of heavier rainfall totals getting
into coastal AL by later this morning.

FFG is quite high across this area, generally 3" in one hour and
4" in 3 hours. It seems unlikely this will get exceeded on a
widespread basis, however where some brief training can occur we
should be able to continue to locally exceed these amounts. Thus
an isolated to scattered flash flood risk is likely to continue,
with an emphasis on urban areas where runoff is enhanced.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6-CVi1ln5byFJMQcIWGGY0CoTOnqyzzqDQAMZWm7T1h3sAbJKTef1dloAvCWRAzSZ0Bk= No94LJRzuGDbyWJknbDfBzo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31838994 31688862 31408795 30418726 29388857=20
28908922 28918978 29279039 30039039 30549035=20
30829040 31299048=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262103
FFGMPD
FLZ000-270300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1216
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
502 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Space Coast region into central portions of FL
Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 262100Z - 270300Z

Summary...Rainfall rates as high as 3"+/hr with slow moving
thunderstorms to result in short-term isolated totals of 5"+ with
localized flash flooding likely.

Discussion...Mid-level dry air has eroded sufficiently to allow
for deep convection to take root across portions of the central FL
Peninsula, becoming most robust along the eastern Space Coast
region where low-level convergence has become maximized along the
coast (with weaker, generally more progressive convection
extending well to the west along a weak surface front/thetaE
gradient). The mesoscale environment is characterized by PWs of
1.5-1.8" (already near the 90th percentile, and may increase to
beyond 2.0" locally with continued upscale growth of convection),
plentiful instability (SB CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg), and effective
bulk shear of 30-40 kts (also near the 90th percentile, per XMR
sounding climatology).

Hi-res models trended quite wetter (and in surprisingly strong
agreement) with the 12z cycle, as both the HREF and REFS indicate
high odds of localized 5" exceedance through 03z (near 60% and 50% respectively, per 40-km neighborhood exceedance probabilities).
This is near the corresponding 6-hr FFG threshold, though much of
these totals could occur in a 3-hr period or less (as evidenced by
estimated hourly rainfall near 3" from the first evident supercell
near the Space Coast Regional Airport, which is nearly stationary
in accordance with the bunkers right-mover vectors indicating
motions of 5 kts or less). Given this strong hi-res guidance
signal and recent observational trends, localized instances of
flash flooding are likely (and may be locally significant in
relatively low lying urbanized terrain with poor drainage).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_vIIAFNLjgdXNTMhbd1y_rT6ZamAyYMGqcKgE9sFIHRTR7ZttcM_Y6etTl8pQxx2NO3f= trw-SU5qKo1h0zpR--pjDLM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29488163 29258104 28618048 28218076 28288150=20
28598201 28998214=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262351
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-270549-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1217
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
750 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Eastern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262349Z - 270549Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage from the Gulf
Coast north towards the Space Coast. A threat for 3" an hour
amounts and local totals to 7" exists/continues, which would be
problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...An upper level low near the MO Bootheel is moving
east, along with the base of its attendant upper level trough
across the central Gulf Coast. An additional shortwave is moving
to the north of FL into the southernmost Appalachian Piedmont.=20
Downstream across Florida, diffluent flow exists, which has helped
to sponsor thunderstorms with heavy rainfall which are increasing
in coverage from the Gold Coast northward. A weak baroclinic zone
across the central FL peninsula was acting as a reasonable
convective focus earlier, but recent radar trends suggest that the
coastline is becoming a better focus as CIN develops inland and
winds weaken inland after sunset due to frictional convergence.=20
Precipitable water values are 1.5-2" across the state. Inflow at
850 hPa is out of the east-southeast while the flow aloft is
westerly. Effective bulk shear of 25-40 kts exists which is
helping to organize some convection, but not all, which appears to
about to lead to cell collisions.

The thunderstorm activity as a broad group should shift north and
possibly offshore northeast FL over the next several hours as 850
hPa flow veers more to the southeast to south. The 18z HREF
guidance appears to have a reasonable grasp on the current
convective pattern. Thus far today, hourly amounts to 3" and
local totals to 7" have occurred in east-central FL, which appear
to be reasonable upper bounds on future potential. These amounts
would be problematic along the East Coast of the state, which led
to a recent broadening of the Marginal and Slight Risk areas in
the evening Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Flash flooding is
expected to be at least widely scattered in coverage.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6Nf-iyyNrwNGvgA3tnQptqT3PXkZXnS11TOp9xGoWMmY5pSKrz8khyqHg78FYEGCK5YC= mMtm-1Qnxn4U-2VdoBsZhRI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31118134 28818054 27308000 26207994 26038037=20
27148064 28338126 29288163 30458190=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262356
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-270549-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1217...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
755 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Corrected for amounts thus far in east-central FL

Areas affected...Eastern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262349Z - 270549Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage from the Gulf
Coast north towards the Space Coast. A threat for 3" an hour
amounts and additional local totals to 6" exists/continues, which
would be problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...An upper level low near the MO Bootheel is moving
east, along with the base of its attendant upper level trough
across the central Gulf Coast. An additional shortwave is moving
to the north of FL into the southernmost Appalachian Piedmont.=20
Downstream across Florida, diffluent flow exists, which has helped
to sponsor thunderstorms with heavy rainfall which are increasing
in coverage from the Gold Coast northward. A weak baroclinic zone
across the central FL peninsula was acting as a reasonable
convective focus earlier, but recent radar trends suggest that the
coastline is becoming a better focus as CIN develops inland and
winds weaken inland after sunset due to frictional convergence.=20
Precipitable water values are 1.5-2" across the state. Inflow at
850 hPa is out of the east-southeast while the flow aloft is
westerly. Effective bulk shear of 25-40 kts exists which is
helping to organize some convection, but not all, which appears to
about to lead to cell collisions.

The thunderstorm activity as a broad group should shift north and
possibly offshore northeast FL over the next several hours as 850
hPa flow veers more to the southeast to south. The 18z HREF
guidance appears to have a reasonable grasp on the current
convective pattern. Thus far today, hourly amounts to 3" and
local totals to 10" have occurred in east-central FL. Believe
hourly amounts to 3" and additional local amounts to 7" are
possible. These amounts would be problematic along the East Coast
of the state, which led to a recent broadening of the Marginal and
Slight Risk areas in the evening Excessive Rainfall Outlook.=20
Flash flooding is expected to be at least widely scattered in
coverage.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9RRqNhRs5CLZzRZbOt3JS2A4damiKVzPADWhiDqYblGS-nEtnjHzg-jt43GBGOirN6bh= 55kGKxHuFiLsnqYkpmuYgQI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31118134 28818054 27308000 26207994 26038037=20
27148064 28338126 29288163 30458190=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270214
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-270800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1218
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1013 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Areas affected...Southern Alabama...Western Florida Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270215Z - 270800Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, efficient supercells in proximity to the
front and ample deep layer moisture flux will support rates of
2-2.5"/hr. Localized totals of 3-5" are possible in proximity to
urban locations along I-10. Localized rapid inundation flooding
is becoming increasingly possible.

DISCUSSION...KMOB RADAR along with GOES-E 3.9/10.3um animation
shows organizing thunderstorms across Mobile Bay. GOES-E WV shows
the core of the upper-level jet is squarely atop of the developing
cells but is shifting eastward bringing a more favorable larger
scale ascent pattern over S AL into W FL over the next few hours.=20
Combine this with strong shortwave digging across Arkansas,
sliding a bit negative tilt across MS further adding larger scale
ascent, while also strengthening low level confluent flow across
the Northern Central Gulf. A persistent stationary front hugs the
coastal zone from Mobile Bay toward Gulf county in the W FL
Panhandle, south of which as solid theta-E, but also strong
easterly flow is anchoring/steepening the front across the area
too, increasing vertical isentropic ascent from south to
southwesterly flow at and above the boundary layer with solid
strong moisture convergence.=20

The upper-level wave is helping to finally propagate the cold
front across S MS and WAA is lifting the front off the Gulf. So
cells and higher instability/theta-E air should lift into far S AL
a bit more with 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE. While deep layer
moisture has been advected eastward, the surface to lower boundary
layer remains very saturated with Tds in the low to mid 70s and
total PWats at or above 1.75", mainly in the sfc to 850 layer with
.75 to .9" per CIRA LPW. GOES-E 3.9um shows a SW to NE
confluence axis from the Boothville, LA toward the MS/AL coast.
This may be a solid trending axis for additional upstream
development. Also, given the proximity to the front, the low
level shear is fairly strong with over 35-40 kts of bulk shear,
but also nearly 200 m2/s2 of low-level helicity supportive of
super-cell structures. The combination of 45-60 degrees of
southerly flow from SE to WSW through 800mb at 30kts+ will allow
for high concentrated moisture flux convergence of these higher
values and support rates of 2-2.5"/hr.

Forward propagation near the warm front will be very slow as well,
with Bunker's right mover propagation vectors about 5 kts to the
east, further increasing duration and potential for localized 3-5"
totals. Proximity to urban locations from Mobile Bay eastward
along I-10 would support possible rapid inundation flooding
potential as the cells continue to strengthen/broaden increasing
rainfall coverage as well.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_bs5j5LJ0VqyhPFjGItx8AsYUVPG0vqpFBbeZ5_J27ViAmLa4NKJ2UfKLBgp6MVerhZs= HhRw-EPzAdQCBTaK_Of15OE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31288732 31198679 30868651 30528656 30318683=20
30208728 30228820 30998826 31248785=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270712
FFGMPD
FLZ000-271300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1219
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Areas affected...Westerm Florida Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270715Z - 271300Z

SUMMARY... Rates of 2"/hr and totals of 2-4" to continue risk of=20
rapid inundation flooding along the urban locales of the immediate
coast of western FL Panhandle=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 3.9 SWIR and RADAR from EVX shows a pair of
narrow N-S oriented bands within the warm sector over the near
shore waters of the northern Gulf. Confluent flow has narrowed in
direction but speed remains about 20-30kts through 700mb.=20
Sufficient veering through depth shows WAA profile still
supporting 50 kts of effective bulk shear and about 200 m2/s2 of
helicity to maintain rotating updrafts. These rotating updrafts
continue to slightly enhanced the localized flow providing further
escalation of moisture flux convergence in the lowest 10-15Kft of
storm. Given bulk of 1.75-2" total Pwats (~1-1.25" per CIRA LPW)
will maintain solid rainfall efficiency with rates of 2"/hr likely
to continue with these back to back lines of updrafts. Deep layer
steering and Bunkers right mover propagation vectors suggest a
slight increase in speed to 10-15kts but also a slight right
deflection along the surface front and coastline, probably with
some frictional speed convergence due to land as well.

Aloft, the 80kt WSW to ENE speed max remains slightly upstream and
to the southwest, leaving the developing cells within continued
favorable divergence aloft in the left exit ascent region. The
shear is strong, but mainly above 500mb and is not generally
disrupting the depth of the rainfall generation region below
700mb. Slow eastward propagation of the larger scale
divergence/oblique height-falls across N MS/AL, duration of heavy
rainfall could be 1-2+ hours given back to back updrafts. As a
result a streak of 2-4" totals is plausible; however, greatest
totals may start to fall just offshore or directly along the
beaches. So while the area is sandy and has high FFG values, the
area still remains fairly urban and more prone to rapid inundation
flooding. As such, this style of flooding remains possible
through the early morning hours along the western FL Panhandle.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-QqtMZV6dZlGOYQYuxmY2iKGSO0x53XygaABfgT6ZNCOMXwY3Ow0xU7zeNESQLbnDmf-= M77jWytZ_qNZgUuGxNeCG3U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30808683 30728600 30428520 30098505 29838513=20
29668540 30128590 30318660 30348719 30638722=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181904
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-190103-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1232
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Areas affected...Western Arizona, Southeast California and
Southern Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 181903Z - 190103Z

SUMMARY...Flash flood risk increasing this afternoon into the
evening across the Colorado River basin between southeast
California, southern Nevada, and western Arizona. Heavy rainfall
potential existing through sunset leading to potential night time
flash flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION...Current radar/IR satellite composite indicates a
brief lull initiating over portions of southwest AZ and
southeastern CA. Meanwhile, a steady progression of a stronger
convective pulse over far northeast Baja will make headway to the
north as it migrates within the broad deep layer steering flow out
of the south-southwest. This is due to the proximity of the=20
persistent ULL presence off the southern CA coast with smaller
shortwave perturbations emanating around the southern and eastern
periphery of the upper-level circulation. Hi-res guidance,
especially the last several HRRR iterations have been manifesting
this very scenario of a brief lull, followed by the advection of
the next stronger mid-level perturbation exiting out of Baja and
shifting north along the adjacent Colorado River basin between
AZ/CA/NV. This will coincide within a field of relatively buoyant
air situated within the river basin, arcing back into southern NV
along the warm/cold conveyor belt transition along the northern
side of the surface low analyzed over the southern tip of NV.

SBCAPE between 1000-1500 J/kg is analyzed across much of southwest
AZ with an extension of 500-1000 J/kg located along the northern
extent of the Colorado River basin between the three-state
intersection. This setup is poised to advect further north with a
greater SBCAPE alignment focused over the southern tip of NV down
through far-southeast CA and much of western AZ. The combination
of suitable vorticity advection and modest instability over an
area of +2 to +3 sigma PWATs will assist in a re-invigoration of
area convection with cells capable of 0.5-1.25"/hr at peak
intensity, enough to favor some scattered flash flood prospects
within the confines of northern Yuma, La Paz, Mojave counties in
AZ, southern Clark county in NV, and far-eastern San Bernardino
county in CA. Some training could occur with cells materializing
on a north-south alignment for areas east of the Colorado River
given the deep layer flow remaining fairly uni-directional. This
could exacerbate flash flood concerns locally, leading to the
threat running closer to the flash flooding likely prospect,
especially within those western AZ counties.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9qZwoR-eYoOBPiD_vew7g_oNGgxGIH2VQ3sBHQQpMbB4o_gJuygnmXAcdPidULM-OuUA= grZKvmqIF-vCYVPBbaCFAgc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35831459 35801375 35291312 34391280 33221314=20
33161409 33711453 34251494 34881526 35531530=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 200542
FFGMPD
TXZ000-201010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1233
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1241 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas affected...portions of central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200540Z - 201010Z

Summary...Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding
will be possible over portions of central TX including the Hill
Country through 10Z. Localized totals of 2 to 4+ inches may occur
over a relatively short period of time.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery through 0530Z showed widely
scattered coverage of thunderstorms over central TX with an
increasingly concerning cluster near/south of JCT with only small
net-movement over the past hour. The environment over central TX
contained anomalous precipitable water values of 1.3 to 1.7 inches
and 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (SPC mesoanalysis and area soundings from
00Z) with moisture contributions from the tropical eastern Pacific
in the mid/upper levels and Gulf of America in the lower levels.
0-6 km mean layer winds were a progressive 20-30 kt toward the
northeast but sufficient speed shear was present for organized
cells and slower storm motions right of the mean wind.

While larger scale forcing ahead of a strong mid to upper level
trough/closed low over the CA/AZ border was still well west of TX,
the low level response out ahead of this feature was SSE 925-850
mb winds of 20-30 kt with increasing low level moisture values
into central TX since Wednesday evening as seen on OSPO LPW
imagery in the surface-850 mb layer. Transient axes of low level
convergence and upslope flow into the Edwards Plateau are expected
to continue to support small clusters of thunderstorms with mean
movement off toward the northeast. However, there will likely be
areas of upstream convective redevelopment which will allow for
training and repeating cells at times. Peak hourly rainfall of 1
to 2 inches (locally higher) is expected within SW to NE axes of
training with 3-hr totals of 2-4 inches, although idealized
training over a particular location has the potential for rainfall
totals over 4 inches in 3 hours. Current thinking is that the
coverage of flash flooding through 10Z will remain low enough to
keep the "flash flooding possible" wording on this message given
dry antecedent conditions, but concerns for rapid rises of water
will exist across portions of the sensitive Hill Country despite
the dry antecedent grounds.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_LYpBNhMlhdGrOmNgOUQY3aTCioz2NPMkd1VVanuIvyaHF12_R4dS_2zri_aZ5-ZJWhe= ULn-yQhCMPB3_j4eFKk9eD4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32119869 31429791 30329826 29749881 29269946=20
28930081 29550147 30710103 31759995=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 200802
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-201400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1234
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas affected...northeastern TX, southeastern OK into
south-central AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200800Z - 201400Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of northeastern TX, southeastern OK into south-central AR
through the early morning hours. 2 to 4 inches of rain in 2-3
hours is expected within idealized training, but the threat is
expected to primarily exist across urban areas or other locations
with poor drainage.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms were observed on 0730Z
radar/infrared satellite imagery over portions of northern TX into
southern OK. These storms were located beneath broad southwesterly
flow aloft, with low level warm advection helping aid ascent over
the region. While forcing for ascent was not strongly defined over
any particular region of TX/OK/AR, leading to a somewhat
disorganized pattern on radar imagery, trends have shown an
increasing coverage in the number of cells over the past few
hours, with movement off toward the northeast. MLCAPE was between
500-1500 J/kg with varying degrees of CIN, though many of the
ongoing cells were likely a bit elevated above the surface.
Moisture values were anomalously high for mid-November with
GPS-derived PW values between 1.5 to just over 1.7 inches as of
06Z in and around the Dallas-Fort Worth region.

Continued low level warm advection with transient axes of low
level convergence are likely to maintain scattered thunderstorms
with areas of short term training capable of producing 1 to 2
inches of rain in an hour, and 3-hr totals of 2 to 4 inches. Mean
movement of small thunderstorm clusters should continue off toward
the northeast but upstream development and training will
potentially result in flash flooding should these higher rainfall
totals overlap with an urban or otherwise poorly draining
location.

The 06Z and 07Z WoFS seems to have locked onto a signal for higher
rainfall potential with the 07Z cycle indicating a 40-50 percent
chance of exceeding 3 inches through the 11-12Z time frame within
an axis covering northeastern Dallas County into southern Collin
County. However, given a lack of rainfall over at least the past
2-3 weeks, flash flood guidance is relatively high which should
limit the coverage of flash flooding over the next 3-6 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6D9fBgG0juDuoIIa30dzEkqdMbIIT5lBWjkA6bza_T8Tuc7n0CKIf3us7JMPxYLFw189= L9C8giu8UUC8lF9h_ZMtH68$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...MEG...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35659111 34999049 34359073 33769204 32719464=20
32339727 32669814 33959781 35169407=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201019
FFGMPD
TXZ000-201600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1235
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
518 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas affected...portions of central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201015Z - 201600Z

Summary...Another round of heavy rain with flash flood potential
appears to be organizing across western portions of the Edwards
Plateau. Areas of training are likely to produce hourly rainfall
of 1 to 2 inches and 3-hr totals of 2-4 inches (locally higher)
across portions of central TX. A few instances of flash flooding
will be likely through 16Z.

Discussion...Between 09-10Z, thunderstorm coverage has been
increasing across western portions of the Edwards Plateau, from
near SJT, south-southwest toward the Rio Grande. This recent
increase could be related to increasing ascent ahead of an
approaching mid-level trough over AZ and northwestern Mexico,
which was beginning to acquire a negative tilt, but was still
located a bit west of the region. In addition, 925-850 mb winds
remained in the 20-30 kt range from the S to SSE, continuing to
transport anomalous low level moisture northward from the western
Gulf into central TX where 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE was estimated by
the 09Z SPC mesoanalysis page. Orographic lift across the Edwards
Plateau and a recent increase of low level convergence are also
contributing factors to the recent expansion of thunderstorms.

Recent RAP guidance indicates an axis or axes of low level
convergence aligning from Val Verde County toward the vicinity of
San Angelo through 16Z, matching the orientation of the mean
steering flow from the SSW. This signal, when combined with weak
right-entrance region divergence tied to an upper level jet east
of the upper level trough, is expected to result in areas of
training with 1 to 2 inches of rain per hour, and 2 to 4 inches of
rain in 3 hours or less time (locally higher possible). In
addition, recent WoFS guidance has been increasing probabilities
for 2+ inches of rain from near Val Verde County, north to
northeastward to just southeast of San Angelo over the next few
hours, with the 09Z cycle displaying a 40-70 percent probability
of exceeding 2 inches through 15Z across this corridor. The
anomalously moist environment will support locally high rainfall
intensities which should overcome dry antecedent conditions,
supporting at least a localized flash flood concern over the next
3-6 hours, with locally considerable impacts possible across any urban/impervious surfaces.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ctK3IvwUmNeuhMpezkSQKaDUREe_ipyjQqaaIn2NaAU7AYk0d1dAsqSQkMepj0XxAgP= CN2QcatTu6iZMWjZ_M4i8LQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32389946 32119884 31699846 30639852 29619945=20
28910033 29010170 30760171 32090080=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201653
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-202230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1236
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1152 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas affected...North TX into southwest OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201650Z - 202230Z

Summary...Additional rainfall of 1.5-3.0" (and locally higher) is
likely to result in scattered instances of flash flooding (and may
be locally significant).

Discussion...Low-level convergence upstream (southwest) of the DFW
metro has gradually consolidated a SSE to NNW training segment of
convection across portions of North TX with hourly totals now
approaching 2"/hr (per MRMS estimates). This line of showers and
thunderstorms is occurring along a ThetaE gradient well to the
east of the primary front (near the Rolling Plains and Cap Rock
south of the TX Panhandle) with precipitable water values of
1.5-1.7" (near record values, and well above the FWD 90th
percentile of ~1.2"), ML CAPE of 500-750 J/kg, and substantial
deep layer shear of 45-55 kts. As southerly low-level moisture
transport has recently ramped up, expect a period of several
several more hours of off and on heavy rainfall (with an even more
impressive train of showers is ongoing farther southwest over the
TX Hill Country, likely to move into the region while still
possibly maintaining 2-3"/hr rainfall rates).

The bulk of the hi-res guidance suggests an addition 1.5-3.0" of
rainfall over the next 3-6 hours (per 12z HREF probability matched
mean QPF) with the potential for localized 3" exceedance (per
40-km HREF >3" probs of 20-40%). With a narrow swath of 2-4" of
rainfall already having fallen over the past 6-12 hours (per NSSL
estimates), Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) are as low as 1.5-2.5" (and
even lower to the northwest of the metro area where the maximum
rainfall occured). Given these wet antecedent conditions and the
potential for additional significant heavy rainfall, scattered
instances of flash flooding are likely (and may locally be
significant, particularly across more sensitive urbanized terrain
and where streamflows are already elevated).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4irV483kYzdvk4QIYc2rRMeSYNgBQuyC8Mbjbl2gVhfVg5U5hcn2wKp_0KEqSN__j6v1= gifA8jUNzsMY1UilaXWyX64$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34779506 34749469 34609448 34149451 33739464=20
33489482 33219549 32879604 32429662 32159723=20
32019790 32539822 32949780 33239739 33529712=20
33869700 34159660 34509605 34679554=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201807
FFGMPD
TXZ000-210000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1237
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
106 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas affected...South-Central TX into the Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 201800Z - 210000Z

Summary...Additional rainfall of 1.5-3.0" (and locally higher)
over portions of already saturated areas is likely to continue
scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding (with
expectations for locally significant flash flooding developing).

Discussion...Sustained training convection has resulted in a
narrow swath of heavy rainfall (2-5" over the past 3-6 hours, per
MRMS estimates) through the morning hours. While numerous (but
very geographically focused) flash floods are ongoing in portions
of the TX Hill Country, concerns are growing for continued
worsening of impacts as persistent low-level moisture transport
and convergence have coincided with destabilization just upstream
of the hardest hit areas (to the southwest into portions of
South-Central TX near Del Rio). The mesoscale environment is
otherwise characterized by precipitable water values of 1.4-1.7"
(near daily records, as DRT sounding climatology indicates a 90th
percentile of ~1.2"), most-unstable CAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg, and
substantial deep layer shear of 55-65 kts. While a dry line is
slowly approaching the region from the west, this is likely only
increasing the low-level forcing over the next several hours with
the expectation that the feature will stall west of Del Rio.

Going forward, there is strong agreement among the hi-res CAMs for
an additional 1.5-3.0" of rainfall (with at least one run of the
HRRR indicating localized totals of up to 5", as well as HREF 3"
exceedance probabilities of 15-25%). Given the wet antecedent
conditions (and the already relatively sensitive terrain of
portions of the Hill Country), continued scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding are likely (including some locally
significant instances of flash flooding, as FFGs of 1.5" are lower
are indicated across already hard hit areas).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8gm6zExzPuqInA_FHv9lwYjvY6HraxezaB7ugrj84BH-qx3gctoRT7BOcYLMUDXdCSzx= G3klA6fn0bwz91ueqDS-uDc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32459847 32329806 31959765 31639764 31299797=20
30989823 30639859 30139902 29589955 29340009=20
29340072 29590130 30100103 30600069 31080033=20
31410010 31899969 32249924 32429888=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210612
FFGMPD
CAZ000-211210-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1238
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
112 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Areas affected...coastal southern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210611Z - 211210Z

Summary...Highly localized flash flooding will be possible from
slow moving showers/thunderstorms capable of producing hourly
rainfall up to ~1 inch. This threat will exist along portions of
southern CA near the coast through at least 12Z.

Discussion...GOES West water vapor imagery at 06Z showed
a mid-level closed low centered over the central CA coast, slowly
moving south. Several smaller scale vorticity maxima were observed
within the cyclonic flow, with one of interest located over/near
Santa Cruz Island. Cooling cloud tops were noted east of the
vorticity center, northwest of a surface low within a mesoscale
deformation zone. The 1009 mb low was located about 30 miles west
of Santa Catalina at 06Z with an occluded/cold front extending
southward. A weak plume of low level moisture transport was
located ahead of the front, parallel to the southern CA coastline
where a few showers have recently picked up in intensity with
localized training along the Orange County coast.

Weak instability up to a couple hundred J/kg was located along the
southern CA coast from Santa Barbara to San Diego counties as
noted in recent ACARS/model soundings. As the mid-level low
continues to translate down the CA coast, the plume of low level
moisture ahead of the front will push inland along with the
initial round of stronger showers. Later in the night, some
steepening of mid-level lapse rates should increase instability up
to about 500 J/kg along the immediate coast and closer to 1000
J/kg offshore. The surface low is forecast to edge closer to the
Los Angeles/Orange County coasts through 12Z. With this movement,
another round of slow moving showers and thunderstorms is expected
to track toward the coast from the offshore waters, with potential
for highly localized hourly (or sub-hourly) rainfall between 0.5
and about 1 inch, due to slow movement.

These spotty higher rainfall rates could result in flash flooding
of urban areas or other sensitive terrain.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5hy1OjoPIczj9JA_LYobi4X_8NO48jWfR8lBVWDPe-RK1XsCwgWROEbmiMan9UUefKhF= UopZquPsB1jFEV3OzPJESk4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34581936 34531776 33821649 32841623 32541631=20
32531634 32251753 32241756 32731790 33131881=20
33501962 34001978=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211245
FFGMPD
CAZ000-211830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1239
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
744 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Areas affected...Southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211245Z - 211830Z

SUMMARY...Risk of slow moving, narrow updrafts capable of
.75"-1"/hr rates likely to continue to a few more hours. Isolated
1-2" totals in/near urban locations in SoCal suggest localized
flash flooding remains possible.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined closed low is parked directly over
southern California with an upstream highly anomalous
shortwave/vorticity center descending southward along the western
periphery of the low. This and favorable cyclonically curved
geography of the coast and mountain ranges will help to keep
surface to boundary layer cyclone relatively stationary for the
next few hours just along/south of Long Beach, CA. The cold front
and associated warm conveyor have pressed eastward into far NW
Baja California (state) of Mexico before angling through Imperial
Valley and lower Colorado River Valley. However, the western
branch of the TROWAL and occluded front remain banked up against
the Orange county and San Diego county beaches.=20

GOES-W WV suite shows the core of the upper-level jet remains
south near the San Diego country border with Mexico, allowing for
solid cyclonically curved left exit ascent across much of SoCal
providing solid ascent for updrafts that do develop with the solid
surface/low level moisture convergence. The limiting factor will
likely be unstable air/vertical ascent through convective
processes. MUCAPEs have dropped to around 500 J/kg but are now
mostly driven through cold advection aloft. The upstream
shortwave will dull this advection for a few hours but may allow
the lapse rates to maintain this weak 250-500 J/kg instability.=20=20
As such, updrafts are likely to remain isolated and generally
narrow, though with isallobaric response to the updraft, moisture
convergence should allow for the .75-.9" total PWats (loaded
mainly below 700mb) to support rates of .75-1"/hr.=20

As such, a localized 1-2" total still remains possible for the
next few hours. Naturally low FFG and/or urban hydrophobic
conditions will result in solid run-off and maintain a risk of
widely scattered incident or two of possible flash flooding
through the morning.=20=20

It is also possible (more likely toward 16-18z) that a few
showers/cells may try to develop with some weak clearing through
the Imperial Valley along the western branch of the TROWAL. These
cells would be also similarly slow moving but likely translating
NW rather than NE as with the coastal cells; but there is less
certainty with that evolution and a secondary MPD may be required
if trends continue to improve.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6defLsDhQO-ON-LqODLd4v4g66xlCixSbO2_VOxQBeCuFq2HkSlxnEp1Y3e9UPBfwxAh= InmHHKSqNelNU_uwQNCMueQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34551850 34481788 34071704 33471650 32801624=20
32581627 32531672 32561724 32981753 33301781=20
33581827 33971908 34331893=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211331
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-211930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1240
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
831 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Areas affected...Inland Deserts of Southern California and Lower
Colorado River Valley...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211330Z - 211930Z

SUMMARY...Prolonged moderate rain with embedded very weak showers
capable of .3-.5"/hr rates. Scattered 1-1.5" totals pose longer
duration flash flooding concerns (3-6hr exceedance).

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite shows core of deep upper-low has
wobbled over the LA Basin, but a strong upstream shortwave along
the western periphery of the upper-level closed low is digging
sharply resulting an combined effect of tightening the overall
flow across the deep cyclone while keeping the downstream older
center stationary over the next 6-12hr. As a result, the core of
the Atmospheric River will remain focused on NW Baja California
before cyclonically turning (fairly sharply) through the Imperial
Valley into the Mojave Deserts back toward the Tehachapi Range and
southern San Joaquin Valley.=20

CIRA LPW prior to the local outage showed a fairly strong sfc to
850 and 850-700mb signal with 95th-99th percentile signals in each
layer, combine that with some increase in the surface to 850mb
layer from favorable southerly flow off the warm Sea of Cortez and
total PWats remain at or slightly above 1" into the Imperial
Valley and as high as .75" into the San Joaquin Valley. VWP and
RAP analysis suggest strong cyclonic curvature but also 20-30kts
of flux. So while there is sub-100 J/kg of instability, the
vertical ascent through the strengthening western branch of the
TROWAL suggests highly anomalous flux to maintain moderate showery
activity through the deserts. Rates of .33"/hr are more probable,
but an isolated rate of .5" is not impossible. Still, persistent
weakly banded features will result in tracks of 1-1.5" totals in a
3-6hr time period, so any isolated, enhanced vertical cell within
the core may result in quicker stream/arroyo rises. FFG values
being only .5"/hr and less than 1"/3hr and less than 1.5-2"/6hrs)
suggest a few scattered incidents of 'flash' flooding are
considered possible through early afternoon.

While less certainty, there are CAMs suggesting some filtered
insolation may be possible in the morning. Near zero inhibition
through the profiles, suggest embedded widely scattered convective
elements may evolve in the 16-19z time period, particularly closer
to the warmer heat source of the Sea of Cortez across the Lower
Colorado and southern Imperial Valley. Given the digging wave
upstream off the SW CA coast, upstream winds may be favorable for
some potential upstream redevelopment/back-building environment.=20
Will continue to monitor those trends for any additional MPD later
toward the afternoon.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_-WjtQ6vmZP70V-mcQSPBPEHSb5UPtn6MaaXF4h2x6fY00XJ7ZrT2AvFASaI-gjDsv3r= 8Ao-f3IcG6w7HoujVkdzYxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36451689 36001550 35231468 34241409 33061394=20
32331426 32491497 32691600 34241623 34841705=20
34971779 35591825 36151792=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222300
FFGMPD
AZZ000-230458-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1241
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
559 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and southeast AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222258Z - 230458Z

Summary...Convection continues to grow in coverage across portions
of central and southeast AZ. Hourly rain amounts up to 1" with
local amounts to 2" could lead to isolated to widely scattered
issues in arroyos/dry washes, burn scars, and box canyons.

Discussion...Infrared satellite imagery shows cooling cloud tops
in association with showers and thunderstorms across central and
southeast AZ within a region of 700 hPa confluence ahead of a
progressive deep layer low, with some recent uptick in coverage.=20
A first pixels of 0.5" an hour amounts were indicated recently
from the Phoenix and Tucson AZ radars in association with their
rainfall. Pockets of 500+ J/kg of MU CAPE exist across
west-central and southeast AZ per SPC mesoanalyses, with
instability increasing due to cooling aloft and some degree of
daytime heating/sunshine, particularly across southeast AZ.=20
Effective bulk shear of 30-50 kts exists here, which is leading to
an environment with both organized and ordinary convective cells,
with the organized activity edging east of due north while the
less organized storms move just west of due north. Precipitable
water values of 0.5-1" lie here. The atmosphere is cool, with
1000-500 hPa thickness values of 5550-5600 meters. When combined
with the available moisture, the column is approaching saturation.

The mesoscale guidance implies increasing convective coverage and
an increasing incidence of 0.5"+ an hour amounts over the next
several hours, with the 12z REFS and 18z HREF guidance suggesting
the heaviest rainfall in the 01-05z time frame. This could be due
to cell training, occasional mesocyclone formation, or cell
mergers between more and less organized convective activity. As
the upper level system continues marching northeast, winds should
veer somewhat which should allow convection to shift somewhat to
the east with time, with activity shifting increasingly into
mountainous areas. With hourly amounts to 1" and local totals to
2" possible, the incidence of impactful heavy rain is expected to
be isolated to widely scattered, mainly within arroyos/dry washes,
box canyons, and any area burn scars.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_11Dt4vgOR_QWohFX9tvKqdE6LGVpOCutmRvWnF-mQw0JNZV4L9ax5MtPUIq6Oi9tax_= f7aVUm8MLuTaLbjJuyltsFM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34911210 34811085 33170939 31640956 31201086=20
32061186 34001212=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222307
FFGMPD
AZZ000-230459-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1241
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
607 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and southeast AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222259Z - 230459Z

SUMMARY...Repeating and brief training of cells could result in
localized flash flooding across far eastern KY into WV and far
southern OH over the next few hours. Additional rainfall of 1-2
inches will be possible through 01Z, falling atop 1-2 inches of
rain which fell over the past 12 hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery and cooling cloud tops on GOES
East infrared imagery has shown an increase in rainfall intensity
across eastern KY over the past 2 hours, attributed to increasing
instability. Mostly clear skies located south of an outflow
boundary (located from south of SME, east-northeastward into
south-central WV between CRW and BKW) have allowed MLCAPE to
increase into the 500 to 1000+ J/kg range over southeastern KY as
roughly 30 kt of southwesterly 850 mb flow overruns the boundary.
Average cell motions have been fast with ~40 kt from the WSW,
limiting rainfall over any given location, but that rainfall has
been intense with 0.3 to 0.5 inches in 15 minutes observed.

A flash flood concern may expand eastward into WV through the
early evening as instability increases into the southern half of
WV, through the continued advection of low level moisture and at
least brief additional heating under clearing skies in southern
WV. Some backing of low level flow is forecast by the RAP and as
moist/unstable air continues to overrun the rain-cooled boundary,
additional storms are expected to form upstream in KY and advance
downstream into WV. There will likely be some repeating cells and
perhaps some brief training although uncertainty remains on the
degree of training into the evening. Given 1 to 2 inches of rain
which impacted western and central WV over the past 12 hours, an
inch or two of additional rainfall through 01Z may result in some
localized flash flooding atop sensitive grounds.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7t0SwD1cDQnVIZMQFVCK0VNmTmtrm9FjFvl4QTMcv2akeLdM5pIq9MnzgXiYy9DDoUdR= 8TJcSa0aciWXjO4Mxbq4g9k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34911210 34811085 33170939 31640956 31201086=20
32061186 34001212=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222310
FFGMPD
AZZ000-230458-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1241
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
609 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and southeast AZ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222258Z - 230458Z

Summary...Convection continues to grow in coverage across portions
of central and southeast AZ. Hourly rain amounts up to 1" with
local amounts to 2" could lead to isolated to widely scattered
issues in arroyos/dry washes, burn scars, and box canyons.

Discussion...Infrared satellite imagery shows cooling cloud tops
in association with showers and thunderstorms across central and
southeast AZ within a region of 700 hPa confluence ahead of a
progressive deep layer low, with some recent uptick in coverage.=20
A first pixels of 0.5" an hour amounts were indicated recently
from the Phoenix and Tucson AZ radars in association with their
rainfall. Pockets of 500+ J/kg of MU CAPE exist across
west-central and southeast AZ per SPC mesoanalyses, with
instability increasing due to cooling aloft and some degree of
daytime heating/sunshine, particularly across southeast AZ.=20
Effective bulk shear of 30-50 kts exists here, which is leading to
an environment with both organized and ordinary convective cells,
with the organized activity edging east of due north while the
less organized storms move just west of due north. Precipitable
water values of 0.5-1" lie here. The atmosphere is cool, with
1000-500 hPa thickness values of 5550-5600 meters. When combined
with the available moisture, the column is approaching saturation.

The mesoscale guidance implies increasing convective coverage and
an increasing incidence of 0.5"+ an hour amounts over the next
several hours, with the 12z REFS and 18z HREF guidance suggesting
the heaviest rainfall in the 01-05z time frame. This could be due
to cell training, occasional mesocyclone formation, or cell
mergers between more and less organized convective activity. As
the upper level system continues marching northeast, winds should
veer somewhat which should allow convection to shift somewhat to
the east with time, with activity shifting increasingly into
mountainous areas. With hourly amounts to 1" and local totals to
2" possible, the incidence of impactful heavy rain is expected to
be isolated to widely scattered, mainly within arroyos/dry washes,
box canyons, and any area burn scars.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-poSCiJYQEyoV4jMimyWuK08ybzHQY_GIPWcJWA0X1V9T6lRFwK8MhpkVkd7jpd8AvnV= Ow4HdefNJCTkabCRLzKUVSY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34911210 34811085 33170939 31640956 31201086=20
32061186 34001212=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232355
FFGMPD
TXZ000-240552-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1242
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
653 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Areas affected...Edwards Plateau/Concho Valley in TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232352Z - 240552Z

Summary...A band of thunderstorms is trying to consolidate and is
expected to continue to slowly lengthen with time. Hourly rain
amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are possible through 06z.

Discussion...A broken band of thunderstorms stretches from near
Fort Stockton northeast towards Big Spring TX within the tail end
of the warm conveyor belt of a deep layer low centered in the
vicinity of southeast CO. Precipitable water values are up to
0.9-1.2" per recent GPS data. MU/ML CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg exists
in the vicinity of the band's tail, with the 6C 700 hPa isotherm
appearing to act as its southern limit. Effective bulk shear is
significant, 50-70 kts, which has led to mesocyclone formation.=20
Right-moving cells appear to be causing some eastward shift with
time. Occasional backbuilding to near/slightly south of I-10 has
been noted at times.

RAP guidance shows an uptick in moisture and low-level inflow from
the Gulf and existing convection over the next several hours,
which should act to solidify and lengthen the band somewhat, aid
precipitation efficiency, and causing the polar warm front to slow
its northeast advance from the Pecos River valley. Mesocyclones
along the existing, solidifying band are expected to cause cell
training as they hold up portions of the convective band to the
east-northeast, which could lead to hourly amounts to 2" and local
totals to 4" as cells move just right of the mean 850-400 hPa flow
in a general east-northeast direction. The combination of a
broadening cold pool and slowly veering 850 hPa flow associated
with an impinging front/pseudo dryline leads to increased forward
progression of the band to the east to east-southeast. Portions
of this region saw heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday, which
has lowered 3 hourly flash flood guidance values to 2-3", which
should be achievable in isolated to widely scattered spots. The
12z REFS and 18z HREF were advised for the area outlined. Flash
flooding is considered possible through 06z/midnight CST.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_zyP1sIM09MCIGlmT6X-1_ya4hUXy4M0OqKMFtaUfk4iqjVZGnYfxlcUIV9mjo_rBgr8= 7uVzWLSO13ttNTijlx2EvK4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32390111 32270029 31450004 30250073 30050201=20
30210274 30770303 31560210=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240552
FFGMPD
TXZ000-241015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1243
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...lower Pecos Valley into north-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 240550Z - 241015Z

Summary...An axis of SW to NE thunderstorms is expected to train,
likely resulting in areas of flash flooding from the lower Pecos
Valley into portions of north-central TX through 10Z. Hourly
rainfall of 1-2 inches should be common, but isolated hourly
totals in excess of 2 inches cannot be ruled out.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0530Z across TX showed the
recent development of thunderstorms across the lower Pecos River
Valley from SW to NE, crossing I-10 a couple of miles west of
where US-190 meets I-10. Additional thunderstorms extended
northeastward across I-20 between Abilene and Ranger. MLCAPE was
500 to 1500+ J/kg via 05Z SPC mesoanalysis data though most of the
region was capped. The eastward motion of a mid to upper level
closed low/trough to the west has allowed sufficient lift to
overcome a capping inversion noted on the 00Z DRT sounding,
although the capping inversion is likely weaker to the north of
DRT. The storms were located out ahead of a weak Pacific cold
front analyzed over western TX at 05Z, along an axis of
convergence represented the leading edge of low level moisture
transport marked by 30-40 kt of flow per area VAD wind data in the
925-850 mb layer. Some right-entrance region ascent is also likely
present south of a 100 kt jet max located on the eastern side of
the closed low/trough.

Lift ahead of the eastward moving closed low/trough will continue
to support the expansion of numerous thunderstorms over portions
of west-central to north-central TX through 09Z. Thunderstorm
alignment is expected from SW to NE, along the similarly oriented
low level convergence axis, with mean steering flow paralleling
the axis of convergence, supportive of training. Slow overall
movement is especially likely where the leading edge of low level
transport meets the approaching zone of lift from the west, closer
to the Rio Grande, where eastward movement of the axis of forcing
is expected to be slowest. However, coverage of thunderstorms with
southward extent is a bit uncertain. The environment supports
hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches but isolated hourly totals over 2
inches should be attainable where thunderstorm axes are slower to
translate east. Areas of flash flooding are likely to result,
although coverage may be somewhat limited across the MPD threat
area through 10Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!--J0Cgwx68s_3fUkCaer5oFLIJNr1rjgaRVVx80_87jephrSQ-YTTO7MFCqPzFly5cC0= qx9_h9ZLW7rl1Rkm4ORZB5U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33599849 33179739 32419736 31389870 30340081=20
30000244 30570297 31730151=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241014
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-241515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1244
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
513 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...central TX into southeastern OK/southwestern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241012Z - 241515Z

Summary...Flash flooding is likely to continue for portions of
central TX into southeastern OK/southwestern AR, at least on a
localized basis, through the morning commute (through 15Z/9 AM
CST). Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches will remain likely within
areas of training and at least isolated/urban flash flooding will
be likely in a couple of areas.

Discussion...Radar imagery from 10Z showed a SW to NE axis of
heavy rain that extended from near San Angelo to Graham,
containing MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches and has
had a history of observed 15 minute rates between 0.5 and 1.0
inches. The axis of thunderstorms was located along the leading
edge of 30-40 kt of southerly 925-850 mb winds, which veered and
weakened to the west, forming a SW to NE axis of convergence that
has largely coincided with the line of thunderstorms over central
to northern TX since 06Z. With the exception of the far southern
edge of the line, the thunderstorms were mostly elevated above a
stable layer north of a warm front that draped NW to SE across
central TX to the Upper TX Coast. The environment contained ML/MU
CAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg and precipitable water values of 1.3
to 1.5 inches per 09Z SPC mesoanalysis data and these values are
expected to continue to be in place as the system translates east
to northeast.

Short term forecasts from the RAP show the low level convergence
axis translating eastward through 15Z, oriented parallel to
southwesterly mean steering flow, which will continue to support
areas of training over the next 3-5 hours. North of the Red River,
instability is expected to be weaker (<1000 J/kg) which may limit
rainfall intensities, but lift will be augmented by the
right-entrance region of a 90-110 kt upper level jet max located
on the eastern side of a upper level closed low/trough to the
west.

Therefore, while not everyone will see 1 to 2 inches of rain in an
hour, SW to NE axes of heavy rain will continue to impact portions
of central TX into southeastern OK/southwestern AR through 9 A.M.
local time, which will could impact the morning rush, especially
if overlap of high rain rates occurs with urban locations, such as
the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex within the next 1 to 3 hours.
Additional rainfall for many should be 1 to 2 inches but peak
values through 15Z of 2 to 3 inches will likely occur.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4ZFTNzgVNwIfsPso7FHQYtRooV-OEmC5q63V7fbKprZpyFzny24Osy-GunOLEUcodKte= o_H4CPuu11FoxTF_I1Qa12E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35019440 34799388 34309345 33309398 32169588=20
31299741 30899864 30829950 31350015 32169926=20
33519754 34869529=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241610
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-242208-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1245
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1109 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...portions of northeast Texas, northwestern
Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241608Z - 242208Z

Summary...Areas of training/repeating thunderstorms should result
in local 2-4 inch rainfall totals through 22Z/4p Central. Flash
flooding is possible - especially where these heavy rainfall
totals can occur in sensitive and/or urban areas.

Discussion...A complex convective scenario is ongoing across
portions of Texas and Louisiana this morning. A mature linear
segment (extending from near Hot Springs, AR south-southwestward
to near Longview, TX) was forward propagating eastward while
producing areas of 0.5-1.0 inch/hr rain rates. An outflow
boundary from this activity extends westward from Longview to near
Waco, where another well-organized linear complex was moving
eastward and also producing 0.5-1.5 inch/hr rain rates.

Flash flood potential will reside between these two linear
complexes over the next 4-6 hours. The east-west oriented outflow
will interact favorably with enhanced low-level flow (30+ kt at
850 oriented perpendicular to the boundary), resulting in
repeating rounds of rainfall. Furthermore, heating along and
south of a synoptic warm front across east Texas (from near Waco
to near Lake Charles) will also aid in destabilizing to support
strengthening convection throughout the discussion area. The
overall scenario supports areas of 2-4 inch rainfall totals.

Fortunately, hourly FFG thresholds across most of the discussion
area are in the 3+ inch range where the heaviest rainfall is
expected. These thresholds may not be exceeded on a widespread
basis - although this depends somewhat on specific convective
evolution also. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding
are expected - particularly where the greatest rainfall can occur
over low-lying and/or urban areas.=20=20

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9fUSUFL2ROiQxVrsYtVsEBgqdyxDf-bIOIvk-ma4iocAmW5lq1cRQobaTs_JYoM_o2p3= fcRDhqLMp_0tY5wFKqjPZb4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33439408 33429237 32409221 31929238 31359297=20
31079432 30539631 30799728 31949726 32589596=20
32979514=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241649
FFGMPD
TXZ000-242048-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1246
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1149 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Texas, including Houston
Metropolitan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241648Z - 242048Z

Summary...A cluster of thunderstorms has developed just west of
Houston Metropolitan. Areas of 1 inch/hr rates have been
estimated. These rates should spread/develop east-northeastward
over the next 2-4 hours, possibly prompting excessive runoff
especially in urban areas.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along a
pre-frontal confluence axis located west of Houston Metro over the
past 1-2 hours. These cells are exhibiting rapid intensification
as evidenced by robust lightning concentrations and cooling cloud
tops via satellite. The storms are in an environment
characterized by 3500 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.6 inch PW values, both
supporting locally heavy rain. Furthermore, the cells are in a
very weakly capped environment with subtle ascent aloft passing
over the area from weak mid-level waves ahead of a larger-scale
mid/upper trough over the Texas Panhandle. Each of these features
along with strong vertical wind shear are supportive of convective
longevity and modest increases in convective coverage over the
next 2-4 hours.

Rain rates of 1-1.5 inch/hr were estimated in a couple spots
beneath the convection recently. Additional convective
development and training should result in more areas of 1.5
inch/hr rain rates over time, with some of this activity reaching
perhaps northern sides of Houston Metro. Additionally, the
presence of a warm front over the area may encourage instances of
right-moving cells -and- mergers, further enhancing local flash
flood potential. Direct impacts to Houston Metro are still in
question currently, but cannot be ruled out as storms continue to
mature. At least isolated instances of flash flooding are
possible in this regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5x69WgDP4V7GXF8YIMVSa-qvfy3sErd_9r8Jumve8fsd8Pa8UfZ2q8vJhSAFDJ5I4IVu= rmSVFnLOGYYCFaicFHyltqc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31379478 31199388 30469384 29729427 29079610=20
28759708 30029731 30839687 31179619=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 242200
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-250358-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1247
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
459 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...east-central/northeast Texas, western Louisiana,
and southern Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242158Z - 250358Z

Summary...Areas of training thunderstorm continue to support 1-2.5
inch/hr rainfall rates at times. These rain rates should support
at least isolated instances of flash flooding through the evening.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion
area. This afternoon, several areas of scattered thunderstorms
(organized into clusters and small linear segments) have migrated
west to east across the discussion area. Over the past hour, and
uptick in convective intensity has been noted across central Texas
along and east of the I-45 corridor. An impressive 2.53 inch/hr
rain rates was measured at Athens, TX during that time. Cells are
being influenced by 1) a stout mid-level shortwave trough via
water vapor that was advancing toward the region from west-central
Texas and 2) confluent low-level flow, which was maintaining 1.7
inch PW and 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE across the discussion area. THe
storms were not congealed into a forward-propagating linear
segment, with localized axes of training continuing to support
heavier rainfall. FFG thresholds continue to range in the 2-3.5
inch/hr range, suggesting that the bulk of the flash flood threat
will likely remain tied to urban and/or sensitive areas in the
short term.

Over time, ongoing convective activity will shift eastward through
the TX/LA border region (including Shreveport Metro), with spots
of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates continuing. A cold front was making
slow progress to the east across central Texas, reducing stability
and ending the convective/flash flood threat from the west. This
front will translate eastward, reaching the TX/LA border area near
Shreveport in the 04-05Z timeframe. Flash flooding will be a
distinct possibility through at least that timeframe.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6A_9Czlk4N8uJvMpEAy71KjENzSoGcbjTJuBlDeDK8nVn3CE6d2LzSn7W1JziWcAQYhd= dXd7ZpUi4kcGG5M4tApX0Mc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33739364 33529223 32669183 31189212 30469375=20
30079619 30789702 32479634 33559493=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250359
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-250810-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1248
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1058 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Areas affected...northern LA into southeastern AR and
central/northern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250356Z - 250810Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will remain possible from
northern LA into southeastern AR and central/northern MS over the
next few hours. Peak hourly rainfall values of 1 to 3 inches are
expected within axes of training.

Discussion...A broken squall line was observed through radar
imagery at 0330Z from southeastern AR into northern/western LA and
far eastern TX. This feature was located out ahead of an
approaching shortwave and embedded vorticity max which extended
from northeastern TX into southeastern OK, moving toward the ENE.
Low level convergence, ahead of the associated surface cold front
and along/north of the system's warm front, was helping to focus
the SW to NE oriented axis of thunderstorms which has had a
history of training and 1 to 3 inches of rain per hour since at
least 01Z. The lower MS Valley also resided beneath the diffluent
right entrance region of a 100 to 120+ kt jet max centered over
the central MO/IL border which was aiding lift within the moist
(1.5-1.7 inch PWs) and unstable (500-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) environment.

As the shortwave and embedded vorticity max continue to advance
downstream toward the ENE, The axis of thunderstorms will follow
suit, with areas of embedded training within the SW to NE oriented
mean steering flow. The environment will continue to support peak
hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches at times, which is below FFG
values for southern portions of this MPD, but at or above it for
AR into northern MS. Therefore, the flash flood threat is
considered possible and should be mainly confined to urban or
otherwise sensitive locations where 2 to 4 inches of rain could
fall in 3 hours or less time.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4a9nv8X4pl-iuXsYRf0vA3pX-uVyblhhJWRgGkOtkPsGQx8P7kA7L5qxKGPRBbJpJ4V2= q0MyJho1Nw54PYvtCxe_CGI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LCH...LZK...MEG...OHX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35088927 35088829 34968780 34368761 33768814=20
33018901 32329007 31849104 31289216 30859377=20
31139431 31709418 32009364 32549301 33409201=20
34709039=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250825
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1249
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Areas affected...northern LA/MS border into central MS/northern AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250823Z - 251400Z

Summary...While the overall flash flood coverage looks to decrease
later this morning across MS and AL, concerns remain for localized
2 to 3+ inch totals from hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches. A
threat of flash flooding will linger through 14Z.

Discussion...08Z radar imagery showed an axis of strong
thunderstorms extending from western LA near DRI, northeastward
into central/northern MS. The most powerful section of this axis
was in western MS, between TVR and JAN, where some of the
strongest low level winds were observed with near 50 kt at 850 mb
from the south. A low level confluence axis from western LA into
northern MS remained a focus for thunderstorms, out ahead of a
potent vorticity max located over AR and within the
diffluent/divergent right-entrance region of an associated upper
level jet max which extended across the MS Valley into the Midwest.

Cloud tops on infrared satellite imagery have shown trends toward
warming overall over the past 2-3 hours, but bursts of colder
cloud tops remained, such as what was occurring over western MS at
08Z. A reservoir of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE remained from central MS
into central/southern LA with up to ~1000 J/kg MUCAPE northward
into western TN. Short term forecasts from the RAP show that as
the vorticity max over AR continues to translate toward the ENE,
925-850 mb winds will veer over southern MS/AL which will have the
effect of weakening the existing axis of confluence across the
region through 12Z. However, remnant low level
convergence/confluence coincident with strong upper level ascent
will continue a threat for heavy rain and periods of training. The
environment will still be capable of localized rainfall rates over
2 in/hr but 1 to 2 inches in an hour will be more common.
Therefore, through 14Z, a localized flash flood threat will remain
from the LA/MS border into central MS and central to northern AL
where 2 to 3+ inches of rain could fall in a 2 to 3 hour window,
with the greatest concern for flash flooding across urban or
otherwise sensitive/low-lying areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-jACpZSiCr5zOCEqvi3Hw1pmfCDcwp6u1VTDCrhLJLJpXYVKShjKP0joJgzuyv8YHhtI= qpK0qVxJeQoKvKualHte1yI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34998668 34728550 33428524 32468689 31268959=20
30999128 31309200 31769195 32099144 32569074=20
33528925 34128831=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251510
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-251909-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1250
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1010 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Areas affected...west-central into central Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251509Z - 251909Z

Summary: The best chance of isolated flash flood potential exists
across west-central into central Alabama over the next couple
hours.

Discussion...A complicated surface/low-level pattern exists across
the discussion area currently. A remnant outflow boundary from
earlier convection now over Georgia resides along an axis from
just south of Tuscaloosa eastward to the AL/GA border just north
of Auburn. This boundary was oriented perpendicular to strong
southerly 850mb flow (around 40-45 knots), providing ascent for
sustained, deep convective updrafts. Subtle mid-level waves
across Louisiana/Mississippi were also providing ascent for
updrafts. Convection has tended to focus along and just north of
the aforementioned outflow, and with 1.4 inch PW values, moderate
surface-based buoyancy south of the outflow, and deep layer flow
generally parallel to the initiating outflow boundary, some
opportunity exists for training of cells this morning from near
Tuscaloosa into the southern sections of Birmingham Metro this
morning. Some of this rainfall was occurring in areas that have
already experienced 2-3 inches of rainfall over the past 6 hours,
and with wet ground conditions and urban interfaces across the
discussion area, potential exists for excessive runoff issues in
the short term.

Fast southerly low-level flow should allow for at least modest
northward retreat of the outflow boundary along with a northward
shift in the primary axis of training convection, though the
northward retreat may not be as rapid as recent mesoanalyses
indicate. Meanwhile, additional upstream convection over central
Mississippi should gradually mature while moving toward the Tuscaloosa-to-Birmingham corridor this morning. This corridor
could see a locally enhanced threat of isolated flash flooding
over the next 2-4 hours or so (through 19Z/1p central).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6oo1BSolf7M2qBcRNsBLpY_s_IwsR3N0WjlYfTIZJDSjo1V43q768zdRjEmPkHSL37-S= nj5LWzZgDLCEWCWE-B8J0X0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34228682 33838585 33108582 32558693 32388875=20
32808939 33598868 33928817=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260417
FFGMPD
TXZ000-260920-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1251
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1117 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260415Z - 260920Z

Summary...A localized flash flood risk will exist across portions
of southern TX through at least 09Z. Slow moving and/or
backbuilding of thunderstorms could result in isolated totals in
excess of 3-5 inches, though some uncertainty in placement and
timing remain.

Discussion...04Z radar and infrared satellite imagery showed a
lone thunderstorm over southern Webb County, about 15 miles east
of the Rio Grande with a slow northward drift. Radar and satellite
imagery also showed recent attempts at development over Live Oak
County and portions of northern Mexico though low level CIN may be
hindering further development. MRMS-derived hourly rainfall was
over 2 inches with the cell although the likely presence of large
hail may be over-inflating those values and no ground truth was
available to confirm actual rain rates. The cell was located near
a quasi-stationary front which has drifted north and west over the
past couple of hours due to a weak low level easterly surge off of
the warm Gulf waters with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s from
CRP to BKS and southward to the Rio Grande. Low level convergence
and lift augmented by a subtle shortwave impulse tracking east
from north-central Mexico as seen in 6.2 micron imagery seem to be
triggers for the storm(s).

00Z soundings from CRP and BRO showed 1.3 to 1.6 inch PW values
along with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, with this airmass likely in
place near the cell over Webb County. The environment was
supportive of a mixture of storm modes with sufficient shear for
organized cells and straight-line hodographs which could support
splitting storms. Bunkers right motion was toward the SSE near 20
kt, Bunkers left from the SSW near 15 kt and deeper layer mean
winds from the west between 5 and 20 kt.

While recent hires model guidance shows a decent signal for
localized heavy rain in the vicinity of southern TX, there is poor
agreement in placement and timing. Current thinking is for the
existing cell over Webb County to maintain for at least another
1-2 hours with a continued drift toward the north or west with
localized heavy rain. The future beyond that time is unclear as
better low level confluence shifts westward into Mexico but
additional convective development appears possible near the
frontal boundary and south TX coast later in the night. Additional
potential for high rates in excess of 2 in/hr and spotty totals in
excess of 3 to 5 inches will remain possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-otaUnJHL9uHMhHKbJWde9LUbFGUwUeanvAO9Vad5_uIr0z-QeNKrL-6eTtn8HcWvIKY= zxOkhDsM0PZ1MCtcwAVzSW4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28739716 28419661 27979657 27069704 25679698=20
25829839 26089916 26689958 27359974 27970016=20
28239969 28689774=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260907
FFGMPD
TXZ000-261400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1252
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Areas affected...South TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260905Z - 261400Z

Summary...A fairly localized flash flood threat will continue over
portions of southern TX through sunrise. Slow moving thunderstorms
will be capable of hourly rainfall in excess of 2 to 3 inches in
an hour with potential for additional totals of 3 to 5+ inches.

Discussion...Area radar imagery over southern TX at 0840Z showed a
slow moving thunderstorm in the vicinity of Hebronville along with
the recent (since 07Z) expansion of a broken line of thunderstorms
extending west from Rockport. The line of storms to north of
Hebronville appears to be elevated just above the surface given
increasing northerly winds at the surface and lowering dewpoints
just north of these storms, associated with a cold front which
extended through the western Gulf into the lower Rio Grande
Valley. While ground truth of observed rainfall at the surface has
been limited, the ASOS from KHBV showed 0.88 inches of rain in 8
minutes ending 0735Z. This is an example of what the environment
over south TX can produce, represented by MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
and precipitable water values near 1.5 inches (per 08Z SPC
mesoanalysis data).

The slow moving cold front will begin to move toward the south at
a more rapid pace by 12Z and beyond, due to a strong ridge of high
pressure to the north building in and a secondary cold front
currently moving steadily through central TX. Until then however,
the potential for slow moving thunderstorms will continue given a
mixture of cell types and cell motions, some of which could be
less than 10 kt toward the east. There is also some potential for
cells to develop/stall near the coast as a corridor of relatively
stronger low level flow near the front (15-20 kt 925-850 mb layer)
acts to focus cells along a coastal convergence axis forced by the
warmer Gulf waters relative to inland locations.

While the potential for flash flooding looks to be isolated, the
potential for high rain rates and localized totals in excess of
3-5 inches will maintain concerns for rapid inundation of water
until ~14Z, at which point, the cold front is forecast to be
moving through Brownsville.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9MR70JC_4x4-U6ClozgFChiBGGoHQgRXY5C8hXC0VU8raHtYF-yjLC3JdDUp3Flb2bBw= quZZ_nlZZT1G0h3xDIRz-kE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 28419728 28369661 27979657 27069704 25679698=20
25829839 26089916 26689958 27129972 27759937=20
28169865=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261415
FFGMPD
TXZ000-261710-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1253
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
914 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Areas affected...south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261410Z - 261710Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will continue for another
2-3 hours across south Texas.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues. Recent
satellite/objective analyses depict a weak mid-level shortwave
trough moving over south Texas, continuing to initiate and
maintain deep moist convection along a synoptic frontal zone over
the area (extending from Rio Grande City east to Padre Island and
Gulf of American waters). 1.5+ inch PW values and 2000 J/kg
SBCAPE continues to support efficient rainfall processes with
storms. Meanwhile, kinematics (with weak flow below 500mb)
continue to support slow cell movement and spots of 2-3 inch/hr
rain rates. While there's still an appreciable chance for these
rates to materialize along more populated/urbanized areas near the
Rio Grande (i.e., Brownsville, Harlingen, etc.) and prompt flash
flooding, overall convective trends suggest that eventual
low-level stabilization (due to overturning and cooler air
filtering into the region from the north) should result in flash
flood potential decreasing especially after 16-17Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7niCFkluyJDIbuSuPYqL7SSm2hwkFMDS5usNSZMTspejBrOI4OseGZJF2Xlq8tLfJV8H= 26GLvedeOdEYdPP1KfKG9Ao$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27419817 26809699 25819722 26319917 26819957=20
27299962=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 292153
FFGMPD
TXZ000-300351-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1254
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292151Z - 300351Z

Summary...Thunderstorms near Houston TX are expected to grow
upscale and potentially backbuild/train with time. Hourly amounts
to 2.5" with local totals to 5" could lead to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Satellite and radar imagery indicate the formation of
showers and thunderstorms near and east of a baroclinic zone
oriented northwest-southeast across Southeast TX within a region
of 850 hPa confluence near I-10. ML/MU CAPE to the west and
southwest is 1000-2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is near 40 kts,
which has led to right movers near IAH itself. The atmosphere is
saturated, considering precipitable water values (1.25-1.5" per
GPS data) within a region of 5630 meter 1000-500 hPa thickness
values. Hourly rain amounts of are up to 0.5-1" in the past hour
near Stagecoach TX, as of the time of this discussion's writing.

The 18z HREF moreso than the 12z REFS indicates the continued
building of thunderstorms in this area, with some further increase
in convective coverage, which may show backbuilding, training
character with time. Instability could erode/retreat westward
with time depending upon the degree of convective coverage,
essentially stalling the front west of Houston. Cell mergers are
also possible as less organized convection moves more northeast
while more organized convection moves more to the east. Given the
parameters, hourly amounts to 2.5" with local amounts to 5" are
possible over the next several hours, with the magnitude most in
line with the 12z ARW and 20z HRRR guidance. There is a chance
late in the MPD period of convection trying to form across
northeast TX presently near and ahead of an advancing cold front
approaching the southeast TX convective area, which could lead to
more cell mergers at or beyond 04z. Since the 12z ARW and 18z
HREF are closer to the convective evolution thus far, used their
guidance for the defined MPD area. Widely scattered instances of
flash flooding are considered possible, particularly in the
Houston metropolitan area.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Vhatwq8jLS3mZorPAMnYdTnKTx4EfsxLABG-GVOUpKylJtFpPdI52knRINntAjzbM-p= HzQOyXL5ZWPQujCk3_4mvYw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30579626 30439491 29959459 29489490 29339650=20
29869717=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300357
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-301000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1255
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1056 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

Areas affected...Central and Upper Texas Coastal Plain...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300400Z - 301000Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, pre-frontal cells with rates of 2"/hr
eventually merge with south-southeastward pressing cold front
convection resulting in localized 2-4" totals in 1-3 hours.=20
Isolated flash flooding remains possible, especially near urban
centers.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 3.9um SWIR highlights a few low level
boundaries that will remain the focus of scattered thunderstorm
activity through the overnight period. The main being the surging
cold front being reinforced by favorable upper-level orientations
to support steepening of theta-E gradient while increasing
northerly surface wind flow to over 20-25kts nearly counter to the
weaker but solid onshore flow. Currently active convection along
the leading edge of the front is slow moving from Burleson to Polk
county as the winds are not fully intersecting with the line, but
will likely be propagating southward in the next hour or so. The
other boundary is the return moisture plume off the western Gulf
(which arches similar to the Lower TX Gulf coast before angling
east- northeast just south of the aforementioned convection). Tds
in the upper 60s to near 70 can be traced best in CIRA LPW sfc-850
and 850-700mb layers covering much of the MPD area of concern
across the Central and Upper Texas Coastal Plain.

Onshore flow is also increasing to 15-20kts resulting in
frictional convergence near coast. Conditionally unstable airmass
with MLCAPEs of 1000-1250 J/kg remain weakly capped but there are
some signs in satellite imagery of some weak cu field near
Victoria, TX as well as an isolated weakening supercells
northeast of Galveston Bay. The merging of the boundaries is also
allowing a westward expansion of new development upstream into
Bastrop/Caldwell county vicinity.=20

Total deep moisture of 1.5" as noted in the CIRA LPW is loaded
below 700mb, but there is solid deep saturation. These isolated
cells driven by frictional convergence will be slow moving and
eventually capable of 1-2"/hr rates. Spotty 2-3" totals will
occur in 1-2hrs, but as they mature and expand the slower moving
cells along the cold front will have started increased forward
speed and with very high low level moisture flux convergence will
have the capability of 1-1.25"/15min rainfall totals as they
intersect/merge with the cells across the Plain.

00z HREF probabilities continue to suggest 3"/3hr totals in the
20-30% range (3"/6hr over 50%) which is fairly impressive given
the strength of the updraft due to instability is fairly limited.=20
While the overall coverage will continue to be limited, spots of
3-4" totals are probable through 09z. This places sufficient
overlap of FFG exceedance (as 1hr FFG is 2.5-3" and 3hr is 3-4")
for possible localized incident or two of flash/rapid inundation
flooding. This only further increases with intersection with
urban centers, such as Victoria, Houston and Beaumont.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6eBqZJFeXYwfdfjOanroH9GQeQtbydrQfNUR442JL4eOoRDBCnP5-W_eKdR2izXE3AJE= Wxq3reM5uV59a3QArZIE_ho$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30999472 30719393 30099362 29749380 29519420=20
29359466 28499607 27779725 27969777 28499795=20
29529752 29879714 30199681 30729602=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020035
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-020634-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1256
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
734 PM EST Mon Dec 01 2025

Areas affected...portions of the central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020034Z - 020634Z

Summary...A combination of cell training and backbuilding should
continue to lead to hourly rain amounts to 1.75" with local totals
to 4", which could cause flash flooding in urban areas.

Discussion...Instability across portions of the central Gulf Coast
continues to rise ahead of a negatively-tilted shortwave across
OK. Precipitable water values are ~1.6" per GPS data and MU CAPE
values of 500+ J/kg lie across the southeast tip of LA and
continue shifting north towards the MS/AL barrier islands. Radar
estimates from LIX/Hammond LA indicate that hourly amounts peaked
near 1.75" not far from the eastern suburbs of New Orleans
recently, with local totals above 2.5" so far. Occasional hourly
rain amounts to 1.5" have been seen in backbuilding convection in
southernmost AL. Effective bulk shear of 25-45 kts lurks across
the area which is helping to form a band within an area of 850 hPa
confluence.

The band is showing some signs of shifting northward across
southern AL and slightly eastward in southeast LA. Additional
activity south of the LA/MS coasts within a convergence zone which
extends from northwest Cuba towards the central Gulf Coast could
advect northward towards portions of this area in the next several
hours and cause additional issues. The guidance has not been
ideal in this region thus far -- too far north and too light --
though the 18z hi-res NAM appears to have the best idea, so used
it as a starting point for the MPD bounds, making some adjustments
based on radar reflectivity trends. The region has been dry, so
flash flood guidance values are high. Hourly amounts to 1.75" and
local totals to 4" appear possible where cells train and/or
backbuild, which would be most problematic in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6SdogcIUxTtroqQTUwxSALeN9Fo_uMvC5I4pW6eAAjX9DWw67VnyMfB31nkTA5_xaSPt= yY_XxORQJb-wb9BRCh179PU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31928616 31298582 30558670 30248743 30078846=20
29938870 29778905 29439024 29689078 30768934=20
31778728=20

=3D =3D =3D
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