ACUS48 KWNS 161001
SWOD48
SPC AC 160959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Wednesday - D5/Thursday...
An increase in severe potential remains evident across the
south-central CONUS from D4/Wednesday into D5/Thursday, but
uncertainty remains regarding many details and the overall magnitude
of the threat. Guidance is in somewhat better agreement regarding
the timing of the closed mid/upper-level low and attendant trough
that will move from the Southwest toward the south-central Plains
from late Wednesday into Thursday. Forcing may remain somewhat
nebulous during the day on Wednesday, but storms that may develop
late Tuesday night could continue into Wednesday morning, while
isolated diurnal development will be possible across the broader
warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized
storms, but low-level flow is generally forecast to be rather weak
until late Wednesday night.

As the approaching trough impinges upon rich boundary-layer moisture
and a reservoir of moderate buoyancy, storm development will become increasingly widespread Wednesday night into Thursday, along/ahead
of a north/south-oriented cold front that will move east across the southern/central Plains. Deep-layer shear will remain favorable for
storm organization, while low-level flow/shear should increase as a
surface low deepens and moves northeastward across the central
Plains. Some severe threat may expand from the southern Plains into
parts of the lower MO and mid MS Valleys with time on Thursday,
though buoyancy will become increasingly scant with northward
extent.

Given the late arrival of stronger large-scale ascent and low-level
mass response on Wednesday night, and the anticipated widespread
storm coverage on Thursday, the magnitude of available buoyancy and
the resulting severe threat remain uncertain. These uncertainties
appear to be reflected in the relatively broad and modest
probabilities from available calibrated guidance. However, given the
likelihood of a strong ejecting trough impinging upon anomalous
low-level moisture, severe probabilities will likely be needed in
subsequent outlooks.

...D6/Friday - D8/Sunday...
Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern becomes rather low by
late week into next weekend. Some severe threat could spread into
parts of the Southeast and Ohio Valley on Friday, though buoyancy
will become increasingly limited. Some guidance (such as the 16/00Z
ECMWF) depicts another deep trough moving across the southern Plains
next weekend, though spread regarding this potential system is quite
large within other extended-range guidance.

..Dean.. 11/16/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 170908
SWOD48
SPC AC 170907

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Thursday - Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley...

An upper trough over the Four Corners vicinity will eject
east/northeast into the Plains on Thursday. Moderate southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread portions of OK/TX toward the Ozarks
as this occurs. Warm advection ahead of the trough, coincident with
a weakening southerly low-level jet, will result in widespread
showers and thunderstorms across the region early Thursday. This may
temper destabilization despite rich boundary layer moisture.
Meanwhile, a surface low will modestly deepen near the OK/KS border,
and a north-south oriented cold front draped across west TX will
develop eastward through the period, with a warm front extending
west-east across central MO/southern IL. These boundaries may focus
some risk for stronger storms within a weak to moderately unstable
airmass. However, the magnitude of the severe risk still remains
uncertain given potential for widespread and possibly heavy
rainfall, somewhat weak low-level flow, and the weakening of the
upper trough as it shifts east/northeast during the evening. Severe probabilities may become necessary is subsequent outlooks, but
uncertainty remains too high to include a 15 percent delineation at
this time.

...Day 5/Fri - Mid/Lower MS and OH/TN Valley vicinity...

The surface cold front will continue to develop east/southeast
across the region on Friday/Friday night. Some low-end severe
potential could persist given rich boundary layer moisture and at
least modest buoyancy ahead of the front. However, persistent
rainfall and a weakening upper trough with veering/boundary-parallel
deep-layer flow will likely limit storm intensity.

...Days 6-8/Sat-Mon...

Spread among forecast guidance increases late in the period and
forecast confidence is low. However, most guidance depicts some
version of an upper trough/low over the Southwest ejecting east
toward the Plains, but the differences in timing/intensity, etc
limit predictability. Some increase in severe potential could return
to portions of the southern Plains depending on how this potential
trough evolves and guidance trends will be monitored.

..Leitman.. 11/17/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 120900
SWOD48
SPC AC 120858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move slowly eastward from the
central and northern Plains on Wednesday to the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley by Friday. During this time, a trough is forecast to move
eastward across the western half of the nation. Ahead of the trough
on Wednesday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear most likely
to develop from the southern Rockies into the northern Plains. An
isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the axis of
instability Wednesday afternoon and evening. The instability axis is
forecast to shift eastward into the central and northern Plains on
Thursday, and into the Upper Midwest on Friday. An isolated severe
threat will be possible along and near the instability axis on both
Thursday and Friday afternoon/evening.

...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
Low-level moisture advection is forecast to increase markedly on
Saturday as the trough moves into the Great Plains. By afternoon, an
axis of moderate instability could be in place from the southern
Plains into the Ozarks, with surface dewpoints in the 60s F.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms may develop along and near this
axis of instability Saturday afternoon and evening. A severe threat
will be possible from Saturday into Saturday night as the trough
moves across the central U.S. A severe potential will also be
possible on Sunday, with the system forecast to move across the
Mississippi Valley.

Although there is model spread among the solutions, most have the
trough moving into the Great Plains on Saturday, with a moist and
unstable airmass located over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley.
This scenario seems plausible. However, the models do still have
significant variance on the timing and strength of the mid-level
system. For this reason, will not add a severe threat area at this
time.

..Broyles.. 10/12/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 260845
SWOD48
SPC AC 260843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential is low through the extended forecast period. A
strong upper trough and jet over the central US will merge with a
broad upper low over the eastern US midweek. At the same time,
ridging will develop over the West, as the flow pattern aloft
amplifies significantly. This will drive strong northwesterly flow
across the central CONUS. An associated cold front will sweep
through the central and eastern US before moving offshore D4/Wed. As
the front moves offshore, a deep coastal low is expected to develop
and could promote isolated thunderstorm activity along the East
Coast or south FL late this week and into the weekend. However, the
persistent eastern US troughing and strong surface high pressure
behind the cold front will favor much cooler, drier and more stable
surface conditions across the CONUS. Thus, thunderstorm chances are
low with little severe risk through the extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 10/26/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 190908
SWOD48
SPC AC 190906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Most medium-range forecast guidance is consistent in developing an eastward-progressing upper low and attendant trough from the
Southwest into the southern/central Plains Day 4/Sat into Day 6/Mon.
Strong surface high pressure in the wake of an earlier cold frontal
passage in the Day 3/Fri period will extend from the southern Plains
into the Southeast, suppressing any deeper northward Gulf moisture
return until overnight Day 5/Sun when the upper trough ejects into
the High Plains. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop
across southern into central TX late Sunday into Monday as a surface
cold front develops east across the southern Plains and stronger
southwesterly deep-layer flow overlaps returning Gulf moisture.
However, it is unclear if surface-based storms will develop given
the overnight nature of storm development and potential capping.
Severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks as
details regarding moisture return and timing of convection become
better resolved.

The upper trough will progress east/northeast across the Midwest and
Southeast late in the forecast period, with most guidance suggesting
broad, low-amplitude troughing developing across much of the CONUS
east of the Rockies by midweek. Some severe potential could persist
into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South vicinity on Day 7/Tue as upper
trough and surface low continue east, but large spread is present in medium-range guidance regarding the evolution of the surface low and
associated pre-frontal warm sector, resulting in low predictability.

..Leitman.. 11/19/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 200910
SWOD48
SPC AC 200909

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-6/Sun-Tue -- Southern Plains to the TN Valley...

An upper low and attendant trough over the Southwest/northern Mexico
will eject east into the Plains by early Day 5/Monday. Gulf
moisture will spread northward across portions of TX into the Lower
MS Valley through early Tuesday. This moisture return will occur
ahead of the ejecting trough/increasing deep-layer southwesterly
flow, and a cold front sweeping across the region. Warm advection
will support thunderstorm development by late Sunday as the upper
trough and cold front begin to march across TX, and some hail risk
could accompany this activity. However, storm mode could preclude a
greater risk, and storm coverage/intensity is uncertain given
overnight timing.

As this system continues east across the ArkLaTex into the Lower MS
Valley on Monday, some severe potential could persist into these
areas. However, uncertainty regarding moisture return and degree of destabilization due to potentially ongoing and widespread training precipitation precludes severe probabilities at this time. Some risk
could continue across parts of the TN Valley/Southeast into Tuesday.
However, the upper trough is expected to be weakening and lifting
well north of the region by this time.

...Days 7-8/Wed-Thu...

The surface front will move offshore on Day 7/Wed and strong surface
high pressure will build across much of the CONUS. This will result
in dry and colder conditions, leading to a stable airmass. Severe
potential appears low mid to late in the week.

..Leitman.. 11/20/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 210952
SWOD48
SPC AC 210951

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
As a mid-level trough deamplifies and moves from the central Plains
to the Midwest on D4/Monday, low-level moisture will advect
northward across eastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern Arkansas.
Some filtered heating should result in moderate instability by early
afternoon with moderate to strong shear. Morning thunderstorms will
likely have a stabilizing effect on the northern extent, but south
of this activity, a relatively more favorable zone for supercells
may exist on Monday afternoon. Relatively weak lapse rates are the
primary limiting factor to severe weather probabilities at this
time.

On D5/Tuesday, the surface front will stall across Louisiana and
Mississippi with weak to moderate instability to its south. Forcing
will remain somewhat nebulous, but given persistent moderate shear,
a few stronger storms will be possible from eastern Louisiana to
northern Alabama.

D6/Wednesday and beyond will feature a strong area of high pressure
across much of the eastern CONUS. This will push 60F dewpoints into
the Gulf/Atlantic and bring an end to any severe weather threat and
potentially any thunderstorm threat east of the Rockies for the
remainder of the week.

..Bentley.. 11/21/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 220856
SWOD48
SPC AC 220854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Tue - Southeast...
A cold front will continue east across the Southeast on Tuesday as a
surface low deepens across the Upper Midwest. This strengthening
surface low, will sharpen the cold front during the day as it
advances east. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected
across MS/AL ahead of this cold front. Mid-level flow will
strengthen through the day and provide ample deep-layer shear for
storm organization. A few supercells capable of isolated large hail
may be possible. A focused zone of severe weather potential likely
exists from central Mississippi to northern Alabama, but
probabilities are not high enough to warrant a 15% contour at this
time.

...Day 5/Wed - East Coast...
As this cold front continues east on Wednesday, low 60s dewpoints
will continue to advect northward ahead of the cold front.
Instability is forecast to remain mostly weak across the Carolinas
and into eastern Virginia on Wednesday, but given the strong wind
field, some damaging wind gusts may be possible.

High pressure will bring a dry/cool airmass to much of the eastern
CONUS by the end of next week which will limit severe weather
potential.

Southerly return flow is forecast to resume by next weekend which
could eventually lead to renewed severe weather potential across
portions of the Southern Plains and eventually the Southeast.

..Bentley.. 11/22/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 230959
SWOD48
SPC AC 230958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The warm sector will be onshore at the beginning of the period
D4/Wed from the Southeast coast to the Carolinas. This may permit a
few thunderstorms along the cold front early Wednesday before the
front moves into the Atlantic. In the wake of this front, cool, dry
air and high pressure will build across much of the central and
eastern CONUS. This will result in minimal thunderstorm
activity/severe weather potential Thursday and Friday.

By next weekend, return flow will resume across the southern Plains
and thunderstorm chances will increase. Most guidance shows a large
trough across the western CONUS by the end of the weekend and into
early next week, but the orientation, size, and timing of this
trough remains uncertain. Severe weather potential will likely
return at some point given the approaching trough and inland
moisture intrusion, but uncertainties are too high for severe
weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 11/23/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 240906
SWOD48
SPC AC 240905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm activity should be minimal Thursday and Friday as high
pressure ushers in a cool, dry airmass across much of the eastern
CONUS. By late Friday night, return flow across Texas may lead to
some weak destabilization and thunderstorm chances.

Severe thunderstorms are possible Day6/Saturday to Day8/Monday
across the southern Plains as the warm sector expands across Texas
and mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. Evolution
of this mid-level trough remains uncertain. The GFS, AIGFS, and
EC-AIFS all suggest a slower evolution of the trough with a deeper
closed low across the Southwest. However, the operational ECMWF is
more progressive and would actually suggest an end to severe weather
potential by Monday with offshore flow across the Gulf Coast once
again. At this time, the consensus pattern for a slower, more
amplified trough seems most likely, especially given that previous
12Z and 00Z ECMWF model runs preferred this solution as well.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this preferred pattern,
but uncertainty in the evolution of the mid-level trough and timing
preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 11/24/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 250902
SWOD48
SPC AC 250901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm potential should be limited during the day on D4/Friday
with high pressure and a dry, continental polar airmass across much
of the country. By Friday night, return flow across Texas will
strengthen as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet develops. This may
result in some weak elevated thunderstorms late Friday night and
early Saturday.

...D5/Sat to D8/Tue...
Severe thunderstorms may be possible from the southern Plains to the
Gulf Coast this weekend and into early next week. Mid to upper 60s
dewpoints are expected either onshore or close to onshore by this
weekend. However, evolution of the mid-level pattern remains quite
uncertain. This mid-level pattern will largely dictate the timing
and inland penetration of richer low-level moisture and instability.
Therefore, broad severe weather potential exists Saturday to
Tuesday, but more specific timing or intensity information is not
available at his time due to the large uncertainties.

..Bentley.. 11/25/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 260852
SWOD48
SPC AC 260850

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper air pattern is expected through the remainder of
this week into the middle of next week, with multiple mid-level
troughs poised to develop and amplify while progressing across the
CONUS. This pattern will support cooler temperatures across the
northern half of the U.S. through the extended period, resulting
stable low-level conditions and limited potential for thunderstorm
development. However, the passage of multiple mid-level troughs will
result in surface low development, accompanied by moisture return
and at least some thunderstorm potential across the southern Plains
into the Southeast on a few occasions.

First, a surface low will rapidly translate from the southern Plains
to the Great Lakes on Day 4/Saturday, becoming displaced from the
moisture axis with time. Before departing the southern Plains, an
appreciable fetch of low-level moisture will become established over
the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold front. It is
plausible that at least a few strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms could develop. However, the rapid departure of the
surface low will reduce deep-layer ascent, with storm coverage
ultimately in question (hence no severe probabilities being
introduced at this time).

Medium range guidance consensus has the next in a series of
mid-level troughs amplifying over the southern Plains, which may
support surface low development somewhere over the Lower MS Valley
early next week. Should this occur, isolated strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out along the Gulf Coast. However, the development,
track, or evolution of the surface low is currently unclear in the
guidance, warranting the withholding of severe probabilities for
now.

..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 270954
SWOD48
SPC AC 270953

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper pattern will overspread the CONUS next week,
ushering in multiple rounds of surface high pressure across the
western, northern, and eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm development
should thus be limited over much of the U.S. through the extended
forecast period. One exception may be portions of the Gulf Coast
early next week. By around Day 6 (Tuesday), medium-range guidance
depicts a pronounced mid-level trough amplifying over the Middle MS
Valley, supporting surface low development along the southeast Gulf
Coast. Seasonal low-level moisture may advect a few hundred miles
inland from the coast, ahead of the surface low. If this occurs,
isolated severe thunderstorms may develop along the warm front.
However, timing and placement of the surface low differs too much
among medium range guidance for the introduction of severe
probabilities this far in advance.

..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 280851
SWOD48
SPC AC 280849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A progressive upper-air pattern will prevail over the CONUS through
next week, supporting multiple rounds of surface high pressure
overspreading the Interior West, Great Plains, OH Valley, and much
of the Northeast. Static stability will limit thunderstorm
development over most locales. However, a couple instances of
surface low development are possible along the Gulf Coast this
upcoming week, which may support thunderstorm development as
seasonably rich low-level moisture returns inland, beneath
deep-layer ascent.

A surface low may first traverse the Gulf Coast on Day 5/Tuesday,
with a few strong thunderstorms possible along the warm front
(assuming adequate buoyancy can materialize). A similar pattern of
surface low development and progression along the Gulf Coast may
also occur on Day 8/Friday, with thunderstorms also possible.
Nonetheless, questions about the timing and track of the surface
lows, and the degree of instability preceding them, warrant the
withholding of severe probabilities for this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 290932
SWOD48
SPC AC 290930

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A broad mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while another
mid-level trough gradually progresses across the CONUS this upcoming
week into next weekend. A surface low will rapidly track from the
southeast Gulf Coast, northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard Day
4/Tuesday, supporting thunderstorm development along the Southeast
Coast and the FL Peninsula. Thereafter, surface high pressure and
associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development
over most locales until late in the week into the weekend. By this
point, moisture return across the western Gulf Coast region may
foster enough buoyancy to support thunderstorm potential. It is
plausible that strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may
develop over the TX Coastal Plain in the Days 6-7 (Thursday-Friday)
time frame if the moisture can become rich/deep enough to support
greater buoyancy. However, the lack in medium-range guidance
agreement lends too little confidence in this scenario for the
introduction of severe probabilities this far in advance.

..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 300934
SWOD48
SPC AC 300932

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the central and
eastern CONUS this week, which will usher in surface high pressure
and associated cold, stable air for much of the northern, central
and eastern CONUS to the end of this week. By around Days 6-8
(Friday-Sunday), the passage of a mid-level trough across the
central Plains into the TN Valley may encourage surface low
development along the Gulf Coast. Here, enough moisture return is
anticipated for a chance of scattered thunderstorms. Medium-range
guidance hints at the possibility of a high shear/low CAPE parameter
space shaping up along the Gulf Coast during this time frame.
However, details on the exact placement of features, such as the
surface low or warm front, differ too much among medium-range
guidance members for the introduction of severe probabilities for
now.

..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 010839
SWOD48
SPC AC 010837

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A series of progressive mid-level troughs, embedded in broader
west-northwest to east-southeast flow aloft, will aid in reinforcing
multiple rounds of surface high pressure across most of the CONUS,
with static stability limiting thunderstorm development over most
locales. There is the chance that ahead of some of the high pressure
surges that some low-level moisture could advect inland from the
Gulf. Should this occur, at least isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible. Compared to earlier medium-range
guidance, some of the most recent guidance has diverged in agreement
of a more robustly buoyant airmass advecting inland through this
weekend into early next week. As such, it currently does not appear
that an organized severe threat will materialize in the Days 4-8
period.

..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 020845
SWOD48
SPC AC 020844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Multiple mid-level troughs, embedded within a broader northwesterly
flow regime, will progress across the CONUS through the remainder of
the week into early next week. Multiple rounds of surface high
pressure will reinforce a cool, stable airmass across most of the
CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential through the extended forecast
period. Thunderstorms could develop over FL during the Days 4-6
period (Friday-Sunday) as low-level moisture moves ashore. However,
the severe risk appears very low this weekend.

..Squitieri.. 12/02/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 030807
SWOD48
SPC AC 030805

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the CONUS while translating
within a broader west-northwest to east-southeasterly upper level
flow regime through the Days 4-8 period. Periodic bouts of surface
high pressure will reinforce a statically stable, cool and dry
airmass across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development.
One exception will be with the Gulf Coast states early next week,
when a surface low preceding one of the embedded mid-level troughs
will encourage onshore flow from the Gulf. Should this occur, enough
buoyancy will be in place (along with deep-layer ascent) to support thunderstorms. However, buoyancy may be too weak to support a severe
threat.

..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025

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