ACUS03 KWNS 091855
SWODY3
SPC AC 091854

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm potential still appears very low on Tuesday, due to
generally dry/stable conditions across the CONUS. Shallow convective
snow bands will remain possible near and downstream of the Lower
Great Lakes, but lightning potential appears very limited. Offshore,
isolated storms will be possible off of the Mid Atlantic coast, as
cold midlevel temperatures (associated with the departing
upper-level trough) continue to overspread the northern periphery of
the Gulf Stream.

..Dean.. 11/09/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 160831
SWODY3
SPC AC 160830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys during the day on Tuesday, and also possible across parts of
the southern Plains, mainly during the evening and overnight. A few
strong storms are possible, but severe potential appears relatively
low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low and attendant deep trough are forecast to move
slowly eastward across the Southwest on Tuesday. Farther east, a
low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move quickly
east-southeastward from the Midwest toward the Mid Atlantic. A
surface low initially over the east-central Plains is forecast to
move eastward and weaken, as a trailing cold front stalls over parts
of the Ozarks and southern Plains, before returning northward as a
warm front late in the period.

...Southern Plains into parts of the OH/TN Valleys...
Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning across
parts of the mid MS and OH Valleys, which will tend to spread
eastward toward the TN Valley and parts of the Appalachians.
Uncertainties regarding the magnitude of elevated buoyancy will
continue into early D3/Tuesday from D2/Monday, but a few strong
storms capable of small to near-severe hail cannot be ruled out
before the low-level warm-advection regime begins to weaken and
convection moves into a more stable environment.

Later in the day into Tuesday night, seasonably rich boundary-layer
moisture will stream northward into a larger portion of OK and west
TX, as the initial weak surface boundary effectively becomes a warm
front. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will be
conditionally supportive of organized convection, though most
guidance currently suggests that stronger large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching trough across the Southwest will
remain west of the expanding buoyancy reservoir through the end of
the period.

Very isolated storm development cannot be ruled out near the front
during the afternoon and evening, though any such development may
struggle to intensify in the absence of stronger forcing. A somewhat
greater chance for robust (though likely somewhat elevated) storm
development may evolve late in the period across parts of west TX
into southwest OK, in response to a modestly strengthening low-level
jet. The 16/00Z GFS/RRFS are currently the most aggressive regarding
storm development prior to 12Z Wednesday morning, but if other
guidance trends in that direction, then severe probabilities may
eventually be needed.

..Dean.. 11/16/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 161913
SWODY3
SPC AC 161912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys during the day on Tuesday, and also possible across parts of
the southern Plains, mainly during the evening and overnight. A few
strong storms are possible, but severe potential appears relatively
low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Midwest to the
Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Mid-level ridging will build into the
central CONUS ahead of a larger trough pivoting across southern
California and the Southwest. A frontal zone will persist from the
Ohio Valley to north Texas with low to mid 60s dewpoints to the
south of the front.

...Lower Ohio Valley...
Elevated thunderstorms with small hail may be ongoing at the
beginning of the period across the Lower Ohio Valley, on the nose of
the low-level jet. A few strong storms may continue through the
morning, but should wane by the afternoon as the low-level jet
continues to veer/weaken and the thunderstorm activity moves east of
the better instability axis. While some surface based instability is
forecast along the frontal zone during the afternoon, subsidence in
the wake of the morning activity should suppress any additional
surface based thunderstorm activity.

Tuesday night, thunderstorms may develop along the frontal zone in
the southern Plains as modest enhancement of the low-level jet
occurs ahead of the next trough. However, storm coverage appears
isolated at this time.

..Bentley.. 11/16/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 170739
SWODY3
SPC AC 170738

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Southwest into the
southern Plains vicinity Wednesday into early Thursday.

...Southern Plains...

An upper trough is expected to be oriented from the western Great
Basin toward southern CA/northern Baja Wednesday morning, and track
slowly eastward toward the Four Corners/southern Rockies by Thursday
morning. Forecast guidance has trended slowly with the eastward
ejection of the upper trough. As a result, stronger southwesterly
flow, and a strengthening low-level jet are not expected to develop
over portions of the southern Rockies into OK/TX until after 00-06z.
This will also delay any stronger forcing for ascent until late in
the forecast period.

At the surface, southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf
moisture northward across TX/OK and the south-central states.
Forecast soundings suggest capping in the 850-700 mb layer will
persist for much of the diurnal period. Given nebulous forcing,
outside of persistent, modest warm advection, it is unclear if/how
much convection may develop across the warm sector during the day.
The 00z RRFS suggests elevated convection may develop near the
moisture gradient/surface trough across west-central TX and toward
the Red River in southwest OK by late afternoon. While vertical
shear would support at least loosely organized convection, low to
midlevel flow will be somewhat weak, and elevated instability modest
(generally less than 1000 J/kg). Later in the period (after 06z),
large-scale ascent will increase and a modest southerly low-level
jet should intensify as the upper trough approaches NM. Additional
convection may develop late Wednesday night into early Thursday
morning amid a stronger mass response.

Some risk for marginal hail could accompany stronger convection.
However, confidence is low regarding coverage, intensity and timing
of any more organized/stronger storm development, especially given
the trend toward a more slowly/later ejecting trough. Will hold off
introducing severe probabilities at this time, but probs could
become necessary with later updates.

..Leitman.. 11/17/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 120725
SWODY3
SPC AC 120724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from mid afternoon into early evening across
parts of New Mexico.

...New Mexico...
At mid-levels, a ridge will remain over the central U.S., as a low
moves eastward into the Intermountain West. Between these two
features, southwest flow will be in place from the Desert Southwest northeastward into the central and northern High Plains. At the
surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains
westward into the southern Rockies, where dewpoints are forecast to
be mostly in the 50s F. As surface heating takes place on Tuesday,
an axis of instability will develop over central New Mexico by
afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain
by early afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms moving
northeastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late
afternoon. According to forecast soundings, MLCAPE is forecast to
reach the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range along the instability axis, with
0-3 km lapse rates peaking near 7.5 C/km. This could support a
threat for marginally severe wind gusts. Hail could also occur in
the stronger thunderstorm cores.

..Broyles.. 10/12/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 121925
SWODY3
SPC AC 121924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NM AND
SOUTHERN CA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginal severe thunderstorms are possible across a
portion of southern California on Tuesday morning to midday, and New
Mexico from mid-afternoon to mid-evening.

...Southern CA...
A low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday in the
central-south CA coastal area near/northwest of the Los Angeles
Basin. Most guidance suggests a belt of strong 850-700 mb winds will
persist through at least midday beneath an intense mid-level jetlet
that shifts from southern CA into the southern Great Basin.
Instability will be meager, to the south of the mid-level cold core
across central CA, amid weak mid-level lapse rates and rather
limited insolation. But with some signal for convection accompanying
the strong wind fields, a low-probability damaging wind and brief
waterspout to tornado threat appears warranted.

...NM...
Similar to prior days, weak mid-level lapse rates will remain a
limiting factor to updraft vigor. Nevertheless, a belt of moderately
enhanced mid-level south-southwesterlies will persist between the CA
cyclone and east TX anticyclone. Guidance differs on the degree of boundary-layer heating Tuesday across NM, but generally agree that
modest buoyancy should develop over south-central/southwest NM.
Scattered thunderstorms should peak during the latter half of the
afternoon from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to the higher terrain
of northern Chihuahua. This southern activity may spread
north-northeast into south-central NM during the evening. An
isolated and marginal severe hail/wind threat remains possible.

..Grams.. 10/12/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 260728
SWODY3
SPC AC 260727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe potential is low Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough over the central Plains is forecast to
intensify as a powerful mid-level speed max approaches from the
northwest. The trough will deepen and move eastward, settling over
the mid MS Valley as it merges with a broader low over the eastern
US. In response to the deepening trough, an elongated surface low
will develop along a strong cold front as it begins to surge south
over the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, a secondary surface
cyclone over the Red River will consolidate and deepen as it matures
across the mid MS Valley.

Southerly low-level flow ahead of the deepening surface cyclone may
allow for some modest moisture return over parts of the TX South
Plains early Tuesday. However, in the wake of the earlier frontal
passage, moisture depth is likely to be limited. Weak buoyancy may
develop along the front as the upper trough and cool mid-level
temperatures overlap the modestly moist air mass. While isolated
storms are possible along the front over southern TX, rapid
undercutting and limited buoyancy suggests little if any severe
risk. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the
cold front over parts of FL and the Outer Banks. The limited overlap
of favorable buoyancy and shear will again support little if any
severe risk through early Wednesday.

..Lyons.. 10/26/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 261927
SWODY3
SPC AC 261925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe potential is low Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an intense speed max will dive into the Plains, with a
deepening upper low moving from the central Plains at 00Z into the
lower MS Valley into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a cold front
will surge southward across the Plains, nearing the TX Coast by 00Z.
Southerly winds ahead of this front will briefly result in a moist
and unstable air mass over parts of eastern TX during the day.
However, forecast boundary layer moisture profiles will be shallow
over much of the warm sector, except perhaps during the afternoon
across southeast TX.

As such, the greatest chance of thunderstorms will be during the
late afternoon toward the TX Coast, prior to the front moving
offshore. Forecast soundings indicate generally poor midlevel lapse
rates, and substantial dry air aloft, which may temper storm
severity. Otherwise, elevated instability may develop across parts
of LA, AR, and MS, with scattered non-severe thunderstorms possible.

Elsewhere, elevated instability may remain over eastern NC as a
weakening upper wave moves over the area, with moist easterly winds
wrapping moisture westward north of an offshore surface low.

..Jewell.. 10/26/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 270729
SWODY3
SPC AC 270728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper low over the central US will continue to intensify
before merging with a broader trough over the eastern US Wednesday
and Wednesday night. A surface low over the Mid South will deepen
and move toward the Atlantic Coast as a strong cold front continues
to push offshore through the Gulf and Southeast. High pressure will
develop within the post-frontal air mass supporting widespread
offshore flow and drier conditions across much of the CONUS.

The only exception will be across far south FL and the immediate Mid
Atlantic coast where remaining southerly winds will support modest
surface moisture for part of the day. However, the relatively
shallow nature of the moisture and mid-level drying/subsidence
southeast of the jet max will overspread the area ahead of the
advancing front. This should limit thunderstorm potential before the
cold front scours the remaining moisture offshore. Thus,
thunderstorm chances currently appear to be below 10% over the
CONUS.

..Lyons.. 10/27/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 181922
SWODY3
SPC AC 181921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on
Thursday. Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited at this
time. Isolated thunderstorms may extend into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys as well, though this activity is not expected to be severe.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper-level troughing will prevail across the western U.S.
through the day, with a low-level warm-air advection regime
persisting across the Southern Plains into the TN Valley on
Thursday. Two embedded mid-level shortwave troughs are poised to
pivot around the broader upper trough Thursday afternoon into the
overnight period. The first mid-level shortwave trough will eject
into the southern Plains/Lower MS Valley region and de-amplify while
the second shortwave trough attempts to evolve into a cut-off low
over southern CA. The passage of the first trough over the southern
Plains will encourage weak surface low development around the KS/OK
border during the second half of the period. A broad fetch of
moisture will be maintained within the warm-air advection regime, so
any upper support overspreading the moist axis across the southern
Plains into the TN Valley will support continued scattered
thunderstorm development.

The de-amplification of the passing mid-level impulse will encourage
deep-layer veering of the low to mid-level wind fields across the
southern Plains. While scattered thunderstorms and more widespread showers/cloudiness will be ongoing Thursday morning, the deep-layer
veered flow may aid in persistent training showers and thunderstorms
within the warm-air advection regime. The best chance for training thunderstorms will be from central TX into OK Thursday afternoon
into the evening hours. Given reduced boundary-layer buoyancy with
the training storms, severe potential still appears nebulous. Some
guidance suggests that stronger storms (perhaps accompanied by an
isolated severe threat) may develop across parts of central TX late
Thursday afternoon. However, deep-layer ascent will glance this
region to the north, with forecast soundings showing appreciable
mid-level warming over central TX, so no severe probabilities have
been introduced at this time.

..Squitieri.. 11/18/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 190803
SWODY3
SPC AC 190801

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Texas coast into the
Tennessee Valley and central/southern Appalachians on Friday. Severe thunderstorm potential appears limited.

...Texas Coast to the Mid-South/TN Valley vicinity...

A shortwave upper trough will develop east from the southern Plains
to the central Appalachians vicinity on Friday. A belt of enhanced
westerly flow associated with this feature will overspread the
Mid-South and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will
develop southeast across east TX and the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys.
Forecast guidance varies with the progression of the front, but the
expectation is for the boundary to extend from the central
Appalachians west/southwest to the TX coast by Saturday morning.

Convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across east TX
along the cold front, and across portions of the Mid-South vicinity
within a warm advection regime. While boundary layer moisture will
be greater than normal for this time of year, boundary-parallel flow
will likely result in training convection, limiting stronger
destabilization. Furthermore, widespread cloudiness, poor lapse
rates and areas of precipitation downstream from the surface
boundary will further limit destabilization. While a couple of
strong storms cannot be entirely ruled out across parts of the
Mid-South and TN Valley, overall severe potential appears limited. A
strong storm or two also could occur across southeast TX near the
cold front, but weak large-scale ascent, modest vertical shear, and
warm midlevel temperatures should temper severe potential.

..Leitman.. 11/19/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 191913
SWODY3
SPC AC 191912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Texas coast into the
Tennessee Valley and central/southern Appalachians on Friday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude mid-level trough will overspread the TN Valley as an
upper-low becomes established over CA on Day 3/Friday. Cooler
temperatures aloft associated with the CA low will support a few
lightning flashes, mainly offshore. Across the TN Valley, the
passage of the low-amplitude mid-level trough will encourage the
eastward translation of a weak surface low along the OH River toward
the Appalachians through the Friday period. A broad fetch of
low-level moisture will advect northward toward the OH River has a
cold front slowly approaches from the Ozarks (draped southwestward
into eastern TX). The warm sector south of the warm front along the
OH River, and ahead of the cold front east of the Ozarks, should be
adequately buoyant to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development through the day Friday into Friday evening.

Nonetheless, the aforementioned mid-level trough should further
de-amplify through Friday, with forcing for ascent expected to
weaken as low-level flow heavily veers with time. Furthermore, the
mainly unidirectional vertical wind shear will become increasingly
displaced from the richer low-level moisture and associated
buoyancy, limiting severe potential across the OH Valley and points
south/west.

..Squitieri.. 11/19/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 200804
SWODY3
SPC AC 200803

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Southwest into the
southern Plains and Southeast, though severe thunderstorm potential
appears low.

...Synopsis...

An upper low and attendant trough will overspread the Southwest on
Saturday while shortwave upper ridging develops over the
southern/central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will develop
southeast across the TX coast and much of the Southeast U.S.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front amid a
modestly unstable and moist boundary layer. Severe storms are not
expected given limited instability and weak vertical shear.
Additional thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Southwest where cold temperatures aloft will support meager but
sufficient MUCAPE.

Model spread increases late in the period regarding the ejection of
the Southwest upper trough. Some guidance suggests a low-level jet
will strengthen across the southern High Plains vicinity as the
upper trough approaches the vicinity toward Sunday morning.
Increasing midlevel moisture within deep-layer southwesterly flow,
and modestly steepening midlevel lapse rates could generate enough
elevated instability for isolated thunderstorm development across
the southern High Plains overnight, though severe storms are not
expected.

..Leitman.. 11/20/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 201931
SWODY3
SPC AC 201931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Southwest into the
southern Plains and Southeast on Saturday, though severe
thunderstorm potential appears low.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will translate to an open wave while impinging on
the southern High Plains, with a broad mid-level trough poised to
traverse the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. As a result, widespread
surface high pressure will overspread much of the central and
northern CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential for these areas.
Adequate moisture ahead of the surface cold front, along with
frontal convergence, will encourage isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon and evening across
portions of eastern TX to the Carolina coastline. A few lightning
flashes are also possible across portions of AZ into NM as cold air
aloft from the upper low coincides with synoptic ascent of a
marginally moist, unstable airmass. Low-level moisture may be
locally more robust into western TX, where surface lee troughing,
encouraged by the approaching mid-level trough, will promote
warm-air/moisture advection from the Gulf. While the moist
southeasterly flow beneath 60-80 kt southwesterly 500 mb winds will
promote strong low-level shear, modest mid-level lapse rates atop a
stable boundary layer should limit the severe threat.

..Squitieri.. 11/20/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 210826
SWODY3
SPC AC 210825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TEXAS TO THE RIO GRANDE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
central Texas to the Rio Grande on Sunday. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts will be the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
A closed mid-level low across the Southwest will become an open wave
as it moves into the Plains on Sunday. Weak surface troughing is
forecast to develop across the High Plains during the day.
Strengthening southerly flow east of this surface trough will bring
rich moisture northward across central Texas as a warm front lifts
northward.

...Central Texas to the Rio Grande...
Strengthening low-level flow will continue to destabilize the
boundary layer through the day as a warm front lifts north. As
isentropic ascent increases during the afternoon/evening, widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated along the warm front and also
along the cold front/dryline. Moderate instability and strong shear
will support the potential for mostly elevated supercells capable of
isolated large hail. As storms grow upscale, the threat for damaging
wind gusts will increase during the late evening and into the
overnight period. Initially, expect convection to be elevated, but
it may eventually become more surface based as storms advance into
the warm sector. Low-level lapse rates will be very weak (3-4 C/km)
which should keep any tornado threat isolated. However, given the
strong low-level shear, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

..Bentley.. 11/21/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 211929
SWODY3
SPC AC 211928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
northern Texas to the Rio Grande on Sunday. Large hail is the
primary threat.

...Synopsis...
A progressive upper pattern will prevail over the CONUS on Day
3/Sunday as multiple mid-level troughs progress across the
Northeast, the Plains states, and the Pacific Northwest,
respectively. At the surface, high pressure and static stability
will become established east of the MS River to the East Coast, and
over much of the Interior West, limiting thunderstorm potential over
these regions. However, the amplification of the central U.S.
mid-level trough will encourage surface lee troughing and subsequent
southerly moisture return across portions of the central and
southern Plains, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
likely. Strong flow aloft over TX will overspread a moist axis,
where adequate coinciding buoyancy and vertical wind shear will
support an isolated severe threat. Otherwise, a few lightning
flashes are possible along the Pacific Northwest coastline with the
passage of a mid-level trough and accompanying cooler temperatures
aloft.

...Portions of southwestern into central TX...
As the mid-level trough overspreads TX through the period, a
southerly low-level jet will develop, particularly after 00Z, when
850 mb southerly flow will exceed 35 kts. A relatively stable
boundary layer will remain in place Sunday through Sunday night.
However, atop this layer, seasonably rich moisture around 850 mb,
beneath 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will yield 1000-1500
J/kg of MUCAPE, which is adequate for supporting strong but elevated thunderstorms. From late afternoon into the overnight hours,
increased isentropic lift above the stable boundary layer, driven by
the approaching mid-level trough, will promote an increase in
thunderstorms through the evening over western and central TX. The
southerly 35 kt low-level jet, overspread by 50-70 kt mid-level
southwesterlies from the upper trough, will yield elongated
hodographs and up to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This shear, and aforementioned MUCAPE, will support the potential for elevated
supercells late Sunday afternoon and overnight, with severe hail
possible.

..Squitieri.. 11/21/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 220832
SWODY3
SPC AC 220830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST
TEXAS AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are expected across eastern Texas into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Monday afternoon and evening. Isolated
Large hail and a tornado or two will be the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will deamplify as it moves from the central
Plains to the southern Great Lakes on Monday. A secondary mid-level
trough will amplify as it moves through the northern Plains and into
the Upper Midwest. A more consolidated surface low will develop
across the Upper Midwest by the end of the period. A warm front will
lift from near the Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by
Monday evening. A somewhat diffuse cold frontal zone will extend
from the Ozarks to the southern Plains.

...Eastern Texas into the Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Rich low-level moisture will advect northward across East Texas and
Louisiana on Monday. This will result in moderate instability ahead
of the frontal zone from East Texas into Louisiana. Extensive
cloudcover may be a limiting factor to greater destabilization, but
sufficient instability is expected for strong to severe storms
Monday afternoon/evening. A messier storm mode is expected near the
ArkLaTex, but a more favorable zone may exist south of this area
where supercell storm mode will be favored. Long hodographs with
largely streamwise low-level hodographs may result in some tornado
threat, in addition to the large hail threat. While the greatest
threat is expected during the late afternoon to early evening, some
threat will likely persist into the overnight period as a mostly
uncapped moderately unstable airmass is expected to persist amid
rich low-level moisture.

..Bentley.. 11/22/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 221913
SWODY3
SPC AC 221912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX TO FAR
SOUTHERN AR...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from later Monday
afternoon into Monday night across east Texas towards the
Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging
winds are anticipated.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough over the central to southern High Plains will
move east, dampening Monday night in response to an upstream wave
digging from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Great Plains.
While the leading surface low will remain weak, pronounced
upper-level diffluence and persistent low-level warm theta-e
advection will support extensive convection across the South-Central
States through the period.

...Central TX to the Ark-La-Miss...
A swath of elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z Monday from
central TX northeastward, likely north of a gradually advancing
surface warm front. This boundary should accelerate north-northeast
with diurnal heating, yielding expansion of surface-based
instability across much of east TX by afternoon. While
low-probability severe hail is possible early, primary severe
potential should await peak heating along/ahead of the trailing
early-day convective swath. Elongated hodographs, amid 500-mb
southwesterlies in excess of 50 kts, will favor regenerative
supercells. These should be semi-discrete with southwest extent and
embedded within an increasingly messy cluster mode northeastward.

Large hail and some tornado threat should tend to be favored across
east TX during the late afternoon and evening, before low-level
winds subside and become more veered Monday night from west to east.
Nocturnal tornado and some damaging wind potential may persist
across the Sabine Valley towards the Ark-La-Miss, where enlarged
low-level hodographs coincide with the northeast flank of the
surface-based instability plume.

..Grams.. 11/22/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 230828
SWODY3
SPC AC 230827

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible across portions
of the Southeast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern CONUS on Tuesday
with ridging across the West. A cold front will sharpen near the
Mississippi River and cross the Appalachians by the end of the
period.

...Southeast...
Mid 60s dewpoints will stream northward ahead of a cold front across
the Southeast on Tuesday. This will result in moderate
destabilization within a zone of moderate to strong deep-layer
shear. Minimal inhibition is expected along the front by
mid-afternoon which should support isolated to scattered storm
development. A strong low-level jet, initially across MS/TN/AL
during the morning, will move quickly east and is forecast over the Mid-Atlantic by 00Z. If this occurs, low-level shear will not be
that strong along the frontal zone Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Therefore, isolated large hail will likely be the primary severe
weather threat. Storm intensity is expected to lessen by late
evening due to the cooling boundary layer ahead of the cold front.

...South Texas...
The southwestern edge of the surface cold front will stall across
South Texas Tuesday afternoon/evening. The environment south of this
front will feature moderate instability and shear. Upper forcing may
be somewhat nebulous, but convergence along the front may be
sufficient for isolated to widely scattered storms late Tuesday
afternoon into the evening. If storms develop, large hail will
likely be the primary threat.

..Bentley.. 11/23/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 231916
SWODY3
SPC AC 231915

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DEEP
SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across the Deep South on Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
Leading shortwave impulses over the Lower OH and TN Valleys will
further dampen, downstream of an amplifying shortwave trough over
the Upper Midwest. This latter feature will induce pronounced
surface cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes. Trailing cold front will sharpen/accelerate southeastward Tuesday night in the Southeast.

...Deep South...
A strong low-level jet over the OH to TN Valleys at 12Z Tuesday will
shift quickly northeast through the day. This will yield decreasing
speeds and more veered profiles by afternoon in the warm sector
ahead of the cold front. With convergence along the boundary likely
remaining weak through most of the day, large-scale ascent for a
greater than isolated severe threat appears nebulous.

A plume of moderate buoyancy should linger across LA/southern MS,
potentially extending into parts of AL by afternoon, and hold at
weak farther northeast. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for
some supercell potential, but the subsiding flow fields with respect
to the diurnal heating cycle casts uncertainty on how
sustained/productive storms may be. Instability will diminish after
sunset, but a marginal severe threat could linger near the AL/FL/GA
border area with nocturnal convection along the accelerating front.

..Grams.. 11/23/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 240754
SWODY3
SPC AC 240753

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the East Coast from the
Northeast to Florida on Wednesday. No severe thunderstorms are
expected.

...Discussion...
A strong upper-level low will move from the Great Lakes to southern
Quebec on Wednesday. At the surface, a strong surface low will move
slowly east from Lake Superior to western Quebec. A cold front will
extend along the spine of the Appalachians Wednesday morning and
move into the western Atlantic by Wednesday evening.

Ahead of the cold front, weak instability is forecast from southeast
Georgia to eastern North Carolina. This may be sufficient for
isolated thunderstorms, but weak instability should limit the
overall intensity of these storms. Additional lightning flashes are
possible beneath the cold upper-level temperatures across the
Northeast.

..Bentley.. 11/24/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 241907
SWODY3
SPC AC 241906

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...Synopsis...
An amplified shortwave trough will further deepen as it swings
across the Great Lakes into the Saint Lawrence Valley. Associated
deep surface cyclone will track across the central Great Lakes to
the Ottawa Valley. Downstream frontal occlusion should arc to a
weaker low moving across New England, with the leading cold front
trailing southward and exiting much of the Atlantic Seaboard by
Wednesday night.

...East...
Surface-based thunderstorm coverage along/ahead of the
aforementioned front is expected to remain sparse on Wednesday,
limiting unconditional severe probabilities. Instability should be
weak north of south GA/north FL, where strong deep-layer shear will
be prevalent ahead of the aforementioned front.

Rather low-topped convection may precede the most pronounced
mid-level DCVA in the western/upstate NY vicinity on Wednesday
afternoon. While it may be insufficient to produce lightning amid
flimsy buoyancy, it could be accompanied by strong gusts along a
secondary surface frontal surge with a strengthening pressure
gradient in its wake.

..Grams.. 11/24/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 250744
SWODY3
SPC AC 250743

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on
Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.

...Discussion...
A large, expansive mid-level ridge will be present across the
eastern CONUS on Thursday. Offshore flow will be present across the
entire eastern half of the CONUS as high pressure builds into the
Plains. This high pressure will expand a dry, continental polar
airmass which should keep any thunderstorm chances limited.

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front across
Florida, but weak instability and modest lapse rates should keep any
severe storm threat limited.

Significant temperature differences between the Great Lakes and the
cold airmass aloft should result in some instability in the Great
Lakes. Deeper convection that can develop over the lakes with some
graupel could result in a few lightning flashes given an EL around
-20C. However, given the mostly below freezing temperature profile,
the likelihood of mixed-phase elements remains uncertain and a
general thunderstorm line has not been included at this time.

..Bentley.. 11/25/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 251930
SWODY3
SPC AC 251929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida on
Thursday. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
An upper low over the northeastern US and southern Canada will
further amplify Thursday as ridging builds to the west ahead of a
weaker shortwave trough over the Pacific. Broad and strong cyclonic
flow aloft will overspread the eastern half of the US extending
northwestward over the northern Rockies. At the surface, a strong
low will occlude over eastern Canada while a cold front moves
offshore over the east coast. In the wake of the front, high
pressure will intensify as it moves southward into the central US.

With surface high pressure and offshore flow expected in the wake of
the departing cold front, thunderstorm potential over the US will be
limited to far southern FL. Here, isolated thunderstorms are
possible ahead of the front Thursday afternoon. However, weak lapse
rates and buoyancy should limit the severe threat.

Occasional lightning is also possible over portions the eastern
Great Lakes owing to warm water temps and cold air advection behind
the upper low Thursday and Thursday evening. But, with cold
thermodynamic profiles only modest supportive of mixed-phase
precipitation, any lightning flashes should be sporadic and tied to
deeper and more persistent lake-effect bands.

..Lyons.. 11/25/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 260721
SWODY3
SPC AC 260720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday
night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the central U.S. as another
upper trough ejects into the Atlantic on Day 3 (Friday). As this
occurs, surface high pressure and an associated cool, statically
stable airmass will overspread the U.S. east of the MS River,
limiting thunderstorm potential. However, the approach of the
central U.S. trough will encourage surface low development over the
southern Plains on Friday, promoting moisture return from the Gulf.
With the return of this moisture comes buoyancy (albeit marginal)
across portions of the southern Plains. Thunderstorms will be
possible Friday night into early Saturday morning across much of
central TX into far southwestern OK as cooler temperatures
aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates overspreads the moist axis ahead
of the surface low.

...Central TX into far southwestern OK...
The latest guidance consensus depicts a 1008 mb surface low
developing somewhere over western OK by Friday evening as a
mid-level trough deepens over the central Rockies. Given a frontal
intrusion over the Gulf in days prior, moisture return will be scant
for Day 3/Friday. Nonetheless, the development of a strong (i.e.
40-50 kt) southerly low-level jet will aid in the northward
advancement of enough moisture to support scattered thunderstorm
development Friday night into early Saturday morning. Forecast
soundings depict a stable nocturnal boundary layer over central TX
to far southwestern OK, but with 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this stable, moist layer, yielding 500-1000 J/kg
MUCAPE, generally above 850 mb. Given the strong low-level jet, and
an approaching westerly 500 mb wind maximum rotating around the
amplifying trough, strong deep-layer shear is expected. Forecast
soundings show elongated hodographs, with approximately 50 kts of
effective bulk shear noted. Elevated multicells are expected, likely accompanied by at least small hail. However, if trends in increasing
buoyancy are noted in future guidance, severe hail probabilities may
be needed in future outlooks.

..Squitieri.. 11/26/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 261932
SWODY3
SPC AC 261931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Plains Friday
night into early Saturday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to shift eastward
and weaken under the influence of a deepening shortwave trough over
the Rockies and High Plains Friday. As the trough to the west
deepens, stronger westerly flow will overspread the Plains states
deepening a lee cyclone across portions of eastern CO and western
KS. A strong cold front, attendant to the surface low, will sweep southeastward, supporting isolated thunderstorms over the southern
Plains and Ozarks into early Saturday.

...Central TX into southeastern OK...
As the surface low over the southern High Plains deepens, southerly
winds will increase supporting low-level moisture advection on the
western flank of the surface high into portions of TX and southern
OK late Friday. With surface temperatures remaining relatively cool
in the wake of the prior frontal passage, most forecast soundings
show weak buoyancy developing above a surface stable layer at the
apex of a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet. As the upper trough
moves overhead and the surface cold front approaches from the
northwest, broad ascent will support isolated thunderstorms from
central and western North TX into central/eastern OK and the western
Ozarks late Friday night into early Saturday morning. While buoyancy
is expected to remain fairly limited (~500 J/kg MUCAPE), strong flow
aloft could support occasional stronger elevated storms with the
potential for small hail. This is most likely farther south across
TX where buoyancy would be stronger, though confidence in a
sustained severe risk is low.

..Lyons.. 11/26/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 270829
SWODY3
SPC AC 270828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN TO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
southeast Texas into northern Louisiana Saturday afternoon or
evening.

...Synopsis...
A surface low will translate northeast from the southern Plains
toward the Great lakes as a broad mid-level trough overspreads the
central U.S. on Saturday. Relatively rich low-level moisture return
will occur across the Sabine River Valley ahead of a surface cold
front. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development should occur
within a warm-air advection regime. Given strong vertical wind shear
in place due to a departing low-level jet, isolated strong to severe
storms are possible across the TX Coastal Plain toward the Sabine
River Valley ahead of the approaching cold front.

...Southeast Texas into northern Louisiana...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across the
southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley within the warm-air
advection regime. Through the day, airmass modification will result
in some boundary layer destabilization as cloudiness and
precipitation gradually clears the warm sector over southeastern TX.
Over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may materialize if surface temperatures can
exceed 70 F given expected mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath 7-8
C/km mid-level lapse rates. A surface cold front will sweep
southeastward toward eastern TX. However, the mid-level trough
should pivot northeastward through the day. As such, the surface low
and accompanying low-level jet are poised to depart the southern
Plains and track away from the axis of greater moisture and
instability, which should limit severe potential to some degree.

Still, low-level convergence along the cold front should support
thunderstorm development by afternoon peak heating across the TX
coastal plain to the Sabine River Valley. Strong enough flow along
the western periphery of the departing low-level jet, beneath modest westerlies, will support elongated hodographs and over 30 kts of
effective bulk shear. Given the aforementioned buoyancy, multicells
and perhaps a couple of supercells are possible. Isolated severe
gusts/hail are possible, and a tornado cannot be ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 11/27/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 271931
SWODY3
SPC AC 271930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
southeast Texas into western Louisiana Saturday afternoon or
evening.

...Synopsis...
The shortwave trough over the central Plains will move eastward as
mid-level westerly flow intensifies from the Plains to the MS Valley
and Midwest Saturday/Sunday. A surface low attendant to the trough
will move from OK/KS to the southern Great Lakes as a strong cold
front moves south from the Red River to the lower MS Valley.
Moisture return ahead of the front will support scattered
thunderstorms across eastern TX, the Sabine Valley and lower MS
valley through early morning Sunday.

...Southeast TX to western LA...
With southerly surface flow expected to develop ahead of the
deepening surface cyclone over the Plains Saturday, low-level
moisture advection should increase across coastal and southeast TX
into LA. A warm front will slowly lift northward, stalling over
southwest LA as it encounters a deep and cool air mass farther
north. Continued low-level warm air advection (despite ongoing
showers and remnant clouds) should allow for gradual destabilization
Saturday afternoon. While overall forcing for ascent appears weak as
the upper trough departs to the north, scattered thunderstorm
development appears probable, both within the low-level warm
advection regime and along the approaching cold front from the
Northwest. Given expected mid to upper 60s F dewpoints beneath 7-8
C/km mid-level lapse rates, around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE could support a
few stronger updrafts late Saturday through Sunday morning. Residual
westerly flow aloft may also favor some storm organization with
multicell lines or clusters and perhaps transient supercells capable
of damaging gusts and hail. This is most likely from the TX coastal
Plain to southwestern LA before the cold front moves offshore into
the Gulf.

..Lyons.. 11/27/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 280819
SWODY3
SPC AC 280818

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify over the central and southern
Rockies as a broader upper trough overspreads the northeast on
Sunday. As a surface low rapidly ejects toward the Northeast
Atlantic coastline, surface high pressure will overspread much of
the Interior West and most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Static
stability with the high pressure should limit thunderstorm
development over most areas. The best chance for any thunderstorm
development will be along the Gulf Coast ahead of a surface cold
front early Sunday. Before the front moves offshore, near 60 F
surface dewpoints along the coast will promote marginal buoyancy,
which will support thunderstorm development along the front given
low-level convergence.

..Squitieri.. 11/28/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 281900
SWODY3
SPC AC 281859

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will extend from Hudson Bay southward into the
Great Lakes region on Sunday, and will pivot across the Northeast
through early Monday. West of this trough, another strong trough
will dive southeastward across the Great Basin and Rockies. For the
southern Plains into the Southeast, moderate westerly winds aloft
will persist with nearly zonal flow.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will extend from MT
into the Plains early Sunday, settling across the Midwest/mid MS and
OH Valleys into Monday morning. Given the cool air mass over most of
the CONUS, thunderstorms chances will be limited to the immediate
Gulf Coast where the cold front will undercut residual moisture.

Given minimal elevated instability and lift, any convection is
expected to remain non-severe.

..Jewell.. 11/28/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 281911
SWODY3
SPC AC 281910

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will extend from Hudson Bay southward into the
Great Lakes region on Sunday, and will pivot across the Northeast
through early Monday. West of this trough, another strong trough
will dive southeastward across the Great Basin and Rockies. For the
southern Plains into the Southeast, moderate westerly winds aloft
will persist with nearly zonal flow.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will extend from MT
into the Plains early Sunday, settling across the Midwest/mid MS and
OH Valleys into Monday morning. Given the cool air mass over most of
the CONUS, thunderstorms chances will be limited to the immediate
Gulf Coast where the cold front will undercut residual moisture.

Given minimal elevated instability and lift, any convection is
expected to remain non-severe.

..Jewell.. 11/28/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 290820
SWODY3
SPC AC 290819

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may develop along the Gulf Coast Monday into
early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify over the central U.S. while rapidly
tracking eastward, encouraging surface high pressure to overspread
most of the CONUS on Day 3/Monday. As such, thunderstorm development
will be limited over most locales given static stability. However,
through the period, the eastward progression of the aforementioned
mid-level trough will encourage surface low development along the
eastern Gulf Coast. Low-level warm air advection ahead of the
developing low will allow low-level moisture to move inland by up to
a couple hundred miles, fostering enough buoyancy for scattered
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may first develop along the TX/LA
coastlines during the day, with thunderstorms then developing over
southern MS to the northern FL Peninsula late Monday night into
early Tuesday morning. However, this buoyancy, which may be largely
elevated in nature, appears too scant to support organized severe
potential, with no severe probabilities introduced at this time.

..Squitieri.. 11/29/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 291800
SWODY3
SPC AC 291800

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may develop along the Gulf Coast Monday into
early Tuesday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected.

...Gulf Coast/Southeast...

An upper trough oriented from the northern Plains to southern
Rockies will develop eastward to the Great Lakes and Lower MS Valley
on Monday. Strengthening midlevel southwesterly flow ahead of this
feature will overspread the Southeast. A prior cold frontal passage
into the Gulf on Day 2/Sunday and surface high pressure persisting
across the Midwest and eastern states will limit northward transport
of richer Gulf moisture, keeping any quality moisture very near the
coast. Nevertheless, increasing midlevel moisture and steepening
lapse rates aloft, and another approaching cold front could support
isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast/Southeast vicinity once
again on Monday. Severe storms are not expected as destabilization
will remain meager.

..Leitman.. 11/29/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 300829
SWODY3
SPC AC 300828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the
Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. The risk for severe
thunderstorms currently appears very low.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will rapidly traverse the eastern U.S. as another
upper trough develops across the Interior West on Day 3/ Tuesday. A
surface low, positioned across the southeast U.S., is poised to
quickly deepen while ejecting into the Atlantic through the Day 3
period. Strong warm-air advection along the eastern Seaboard will
promote a continuous flux of moisture and associated buoyancy ahead
of the upper trough. A broad rain shield with embedded thunderstorms
will be ongoing across the Southeast on Tuesday morning, and this
band will progress eastward to the Atlantic Coast through the day.

Some guidance hints at a brief overlap of surface based instability
and strong vertical wind shear from a departing low-level jet across south-central/southeastern GA and immediate surrounding areas. If
such a high shear/low CAPE corridor can develop, and a stronger
thunderstorm tracks through this corridor, large, curved hodographs
may support strong low-level rotation. Nonetheless, confidence in
this scenario is too low for the delineation of severe probabilities
at this time.

..Squitieri.. 11/30/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 301922
SWODY3
SPC AC 301921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday across the
Southeast to the Atlantic Coastline. The risk for severe
thunderstorms currently appears limited.

...Synopsis...
A surface cyclone is forecast to intensify along the Atlantic coast
through the day Tuesday as a broad upper-level wave moves into the
eastern CONUS. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear probable
across parts of the Southeast and portions of the southern
Mid-Atlantic as strong synoptic-scale ascent overspreads a
marginally buoyant air mass.

...Florida Panhandle into northern Florida/southern Georgia...
An initially weak surface low should be developing across the FL
Panhandle by around 12 UTC Tuesday morning with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms ongoing within a strengthening warm
advection regime. While elevated thunderstorms will likely develop
across the broader region, a narrow surface-based warm sector may
materialize from the FL Panhandle eastward into northern FL/Southern
GA through 18 UTC. Medium-range ensemble guidance suggests SBCAPE
values may increase to 250-500 J/kg before an advancing cold front
shunts any surface-based buoyancy offshore by early/mid-afternoon.
More bullish solutions suggest that convection may be sufficiently
deep to realize the strongly sheared environment that should
manifest as the cyclone intensifies. However, the general model
consensus is that buoyancy profiles will likely remain too weak to
support robust updraft development, limiting confidence in the
potential for an appreciable severe threat. Even the typically
aggressive RRFS depicts only a weak/transient updraft/UH signal
across this region, suggesting that the overall severe threat is
limited. While risk probabilities are withheld, thermodynamic trends
will continue to be monitored given the very favorable kinematic
environment.

..Moore.. 11/30/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 010825
SWODY3
SPC AC 010824

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on
Wednesday into early Thursday morning. The chance for severe
thunderstorms currently appears very low.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will gradually deepen over the central and
eastern CONUS through the day Wednesday, resulting in widespread
surface high pressure overspreading most of the CONUS. Static
stability accompanying this widespread surface high pressure should
limit thunderstorm development over most locales. The one exception
will be portions of southeast TX into LA, where low-level lee
troughing ahead of the upper trough will support the development of
a southwesterly low-level jet. Warm-air advection will support both
elevated buoyancy and ascent for thunderstorm development through
the day Wednesday into early Thursday morning. If a more appreciable surface-based airmass can advect inland, a couple of severe storms
cannot be ruled out. However, the confidence in this scenario is
currently too low for the introduction of severe probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 12/01/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 011919
SWODY3
SPC AC 011918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible over southeast Texas into Louisiana on
Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Severe storms appear
unlikely.

...Synopsis...
Progressive mid-level flow will amplify and persist over the US
Wednesday as broad troughing intensifies over the East. Weak ridging
over the central US will be enhanced by an upstream trough over the
Rockies and Great Basin moving toward the Plains into early
Thursday. At the surface, a cold and dry air mass is expected over
much of the country in the wake of a prior frontal passage. This
front will continue south over much of the Gulf and off the coast of
the Atlantic, as a second arctic front moves south over the central
US.

The only exception to widespread offshore flow will be across
portions of the western Gulf where the front will stall near the
TX/LA Coasts. Ahead of the second upper trough, warm-air advection
will support some southerly flow along the coast as a weak surface
wave develops over the Gulf. Weak elevated buoyancy and ascent will
support thunderstorm development across portions of southeast TX and
southern LA Wednesday afternoon/evening into early Thursday morning.
A stronger elevated storm or two with small hail is possible early
Thursday, but given the limited buoyancy, a sustained severe risk
appears unlikely.

..Lyons.. 12/01/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 020820
SWODY3
SPC AC 020819

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected along the Gulf Coast on Thursday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated.

...Synopsis...
Broad, low-amplitude mid-level troughing, with embedded
perturbations, will continue to aid in reinforcing surface high
pressure across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm
development. One impulse progressing across the central into eastern
U.S. will encourage weak surface low development just off of the TX
Gulf Coast at the start of the period. Current guidance suggests
that the surface low, and associated warm front, should remain
offshore, tempering the severe threat. However, at least elevated
thunderstorms are possible as marginal elevated buoyancy advects
inland along the Gulf Coast with the passage of the low.

..Squitieri.. 12/02/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 021903
SWODY3
SPC AC 021902

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CST Tue Dec 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across
coastal portions of the western and central Gulf Coast vicinity.
Severe potential appears low at this time.

...Western and Center Gulf Coast vicinity...

Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Thursday.
Strong surface high pressure will be in place over the Rockies/Great
Basin, as well as across the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will
be draped along/just offshore the TX coast, while a warm front
extends eastward near the LA coast, then southeast across the
eastern Gulf.

As an upper shortwave trough moves across the Plains, a weak coastal
low will develop along the Upper TX Coast/LA coast late in the
period. This may allow richer Gulf moisture to move into far
southeast LA and coastal MS/AL in the 09-12z time period. Midlevel
warm advection and increasing ascent atop a cool boundary layer will
support elevated thunderstorm activity along portions of the
western/central Gulf coast through the period. While some
surface-based instability could move inland very late in the period,
this is uncertain and may remain over immediate coastal areas of
southeast LA. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain
limited given Gulf moisture will mostly remain offshore through the
period, though trends will be monitored for some increasing
potential late in the Day 3 (early Friday morning) time frame.

..Leitman.. 12/02/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 030747
SWODY3
SPC AC 030746

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may occur along the Gulf Coast to the Florida
Peninsula on Friday. The risk for severe storms currently appears
very low.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing will persist across the central and eastern
CONUS, resulting in surface high pressure overspreading much of the
eastern U.S. as a surface low develops over the northern High Plains
on Friday. Relatively cold and/or dry, statically stable air will be
present over most portions of the CONUS, which will limit
thunderstorm potential. A surface low along the eastern Gulf coast
will traverse the northern FL peninsula during the day. Low-level
moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the surface low along the
Gulf Coast, where primarily elevated buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred
J/kg MUCAPE) will support a few thunderstorms through the period.
Given the meager and primarily elevated nature of the buoyancy, the
chances for severe storms appears too low for the introduction of
severe probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 12/03/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 031858
SWODY3
SPC AC 031857

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CST Wed Dec 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Friday or Friday night.

...FL Panhandle vicinity...
Isolated to scattered elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z
Friday along the western and central Gulf Coast, within a broad
swath of low-level isentropic ascent atop a slow-moving offshore
surface front. This will spread east during the day across parts of
the Southeast. Some of the non-CAM guidance suggest the front may
penetrate inland in a portion of the FL Panhandle attendant to a
decaying weak surface low. With the synoptic pattern favoring a broad/low-amplitude trough into the south-central states,
large-scale ascent and mid-level lapse rates should remain weak,
compounding uncertainty in how much surface-based destabilization
can occur with any afternoon convection. The bulk of ML guidance
outside of the SPC-CSU indicates less than 5 percent severe probs as
well. As such, will defer to later outlooks for a potential
mesoscale level 1-MRGL risk.

..Grams.. 12/03/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)