ACUS11 KWNS 262035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262034=20
NMZ000-AZZ000-262200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2132
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 621...

Valid 262034Z - 262200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 621
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms with hail and severe
gusts should continue into this evening. Storm coverage may increase
over southern AZ with time.

DISCUSSION...Across WW621, scattered thunderstorms have matured this
afternoon over portions of central and northern AZ ahead of a broad
upper low over the Desert Southwest. Several of these storms are
severe with recent reports of large hail and strong outflow winds.
The severe threat should continue this afternoon with 1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of bulk shear supporting organized multicells
and transient supercells. Cool temperatures aloft and moderately
steep low-level lapse rates will favor a risk for hail and strong
outflow gusts with the organized storms.

Much of this initial activity has remained focused near the higher
terrain to the north. With time, convective coverage is forecast to
increase over the lower desert in southern AZ where strong heating
is still ongoing. The increases in storm coverage, along with
additional convection emanating from northern Mexico should allow
for a general increase in severe potential over southern portions of
WW621 late this afternoon and into the evening.

..Lyons.. 09/26/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!42Ev0wIaxLijiLeevNXL0QJG2XztgleRwh9TVamzK2wsIMTtpx3TS0oCjcKMFGsCMGSeLicGV= 626n9E4pCGuxzcpgOo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 31361193 32421231 33951276 34301287 34661271 34651225
34071074 32830944 32270915 31930899 31540896 31290914
31100933 30981066 31361193=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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