1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2131

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Sep 26 18:41:06 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 261841
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 261840=20
    AZZ000-261945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2131
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0140 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025

    Areas affected...southern Arizona

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 261840Z - 261945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind
    possible this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A secondary wave of thunderstorm development is ongoing
    across the low deserts from Tuscon to areas south of the Phoenix
    Metro. A wave of early afternoon/morning convection continues off to
    the north of Phoenix, which produced a few instances of 1-1.75 inch
    hail. Behind this earlier wave, skies were partly sunny south of
    Phoenix which encouraged air mass recovery, with temperatures
    heating into the mid 80s to 90s and low to mid 60s dew points
    yielding MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep layer shear around 30-40
    kts for organization remains in place across southern Arizona. This
    is also well sampled by the 18z sounding from TUS in addition to
    steep low to mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km.

    Afternoon development may support a more widespread severe risk into
    the afternoon, with potential for large hail and damaging wind owing
    to the steep lapse rates, ample shear, and favorably unstable
    profiles. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed to cover this
    threat in the coming hours.

    ..Thornton/Mosier.. 09/26/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!71eDyo2uTU82ZelbYfOtUZcg20tbJVyqEbdqgz-NMOaBY3RKwMd5Bk3MrkbVdiZQo-VfiV2V8= dvglza_r3az4CGSa8Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

    LAT...LON 31901096 31861077 31781040 31791013 31870987 32010960
    32260945 32630939 32820952 33491044 33891104 34161152
    34301183 34321227 33941276 33621283 33411263 33331252
    33061234 32761211 32271163 31901096=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)