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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2128

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 25 19:23:28 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 251923
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251922=20
    NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-252115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2128
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0222 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

    Areas affected...portions of northern MD...eastern PA...far southern NY...NJ...and northern DE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 251922Z - 252115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic strong wind gusts are possible with thunderstorms
    this afternoon to early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are gradually increasing in intensity
    this afternoon along an eastward-advancing cold front oriented from
    central NY/PA into western MD. Cloud cover has persisted most of
    the day, but some cloud breaks have allowed temperatures to warm
    into the mid-70s to near 80 F amid a moist boundary layer. Limited
    heating and poor lapse rates will preclude stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles are present, per regional VWP
    data, but boundary-parallel flow will most favor line segments. Weak instability (up to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) could support sporadic
    strong gusts, especially across southeast PA and vicinity where
    stronger heating has occurred. Overall severe potential is expected
    to remain low, but a stronger storm or two will be possible. A watch
    is not expected at this time.

    ..Leitman/Mosier.. 09/25/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_l3UkunMrBK68jBc_cP9_UbkNjpX8nEUnB1F5q01ZsaDjrzXktKB-D3RfOtWfib3ToPWsvksf= yXFxsEqClzvNYimOKw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 39637781 40357747 41097635 41477558 41687509 41717469
    41557442 41277418 40407432 39837470 39427588 39347716
    39637781=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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