ACUS11 KWNS 240855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240855=20
TXZ000-241000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2127
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Areas affected...TX Concho Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 240855Z - 241000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A short-duration severe wind/hail threat remains possible
during the pre-dawn hours across the Concho Valley.

DISCUSSION...Merging cells fostered upscale growth into an elevated
QLCS, with the southern portion showing a recent uptick in
intensity. West-TX Mesonet gusts had been sub-severe (up to 50 mph)
but not optimally located until it reached Sterling City where a 78
mph gust was recorded. This recent uptick may be related to the
merging of eastward-moving convective outflow with a prior
west-southwestward gravity wave evident in IR imagery after the
collapse of central TX convection earlier this morning.
MPAS-NSSL/GSL CAMs appear to have handled the intensification
scenario well, but both suggest it will be short-lived. Convection
should remain divorced from larger buoyancy across south/east TX and southwesterly winds at 1-km AGL are expected to become veered
through sunrise with weakening low-level ascent.

..Grams/Gleason.. 09/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5dYVjiJTUJXa3zS276YkwRnD_6k9HddSU2Fefa-mnSOHfd3nb0HQ0ruB9aiynPBcLjLJ9IxXj= 1pfn__3B1nrW_3W5OY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...

LAT...LON 32200049 32339993 32179937 31559905 31239916 31039941
31019961 31010037 31140116 31320122 31540110 32200049=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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