ACUS11 KWNS 231832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231831=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-232030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2123
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Oklahoma ...western
Arkansas...and extreme North Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 231831Z - 232030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development is expected by mid to late
afternoon across eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. Supercells
posing a risk for a few tornadoes (one or two may be strong), large
hail (up to 2 inch diameter) and damaging gusts to 70 mph are
expected. Severe storms may also develop toward the Red River/far
North Texas by early evening. One or more severe
thunderstorm/tornado watches will likely be needed by 20-21z.

DISCUSSION...At 18z, a surface low/cold front was located across
central OK, and an outflow boundary extends west to east over
extreme northeast OK/northwest AR. To the east and south of these
features, pockets of clear to partly cloudy skies have allowed for
strong surface heating and temperatures have climbed into the upper
80s to low 90s amid 68-76 F dewpoints. This is supporting a corridor
of moderate instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) across the region.
Inhibition is also rapidly eroding, and visible satellite indicates
increasing cumulus. Midlevel convection also has been
increasing/deepening closer to the surface front, suggesting
convection will likely increase in coverage/intensity over the next
couple of hours.=20

Wind profile data from the KINX VWP shows curved low-level
hodographs, becoming elongated/straight aloft. As the surface low
continues to develop east/northeast through the afternoon, low-level
SRH is expected to increase, and likely become maximized within the
surface outflow vicinity where backed low-level winds are noted.
Tornado potential will be maximized within a a corridor near/north
of I-40 across northeast OK/northwest AR. A tornado watch is likely
for this area. Further south, vertical shear is expected to be
weaker/less favorable but damaging gusts and large hail will still
be possible as convection develop southward along the front toward
the Red River, and a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed
south of the tornado watch across southeast OK/southwest AR, and
possibly far North Texas.

..Leitman/Smith.. 09/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Eu8fRfz121qdNPF7yrnxdhNIB2agZPNrA-Vf5G1OS6yrdPe2l8XKIdBRFDtpL9-zFY3mELCS= souo1c2hRD1f7q2x0U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 35509264 34919328 34319408 33459634 33619714 33969741
34729688 35749623 36329583 36529532 36499435 36409278
36159241 35769248 35509264=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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