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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2122

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 23 06:08:44 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 230608
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230608=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-230745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2122
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0108 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

    Areas affected...southern KS and northern OK

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617...

    Valid 230608Z - 230745Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Primary corridor of severe wind potential appears to be
    centered on the northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas border area
    through the pre-dawn hours. Significant severe wind gusts of 75-90
    mph and a brief tornado are possible. An additional watch may be
    needed east of WW 617.

    DISCUSSION...Continued IR cloud-top cooling has been noted during
    the past couple hours with an organizing convective complex in
    northwest OK to southwest KS, centered on the US-281 corridor. With
    peak MLCAPE in vicinity of this line and a 45-kt south-southwesterly
    low-level jet to its south, per FDR/TLX VWP data, severe gusts may
    become sustained within an expanding west-to-east swath along the
    OK/KS border. Evening CAM guidance suggest the most intense wind
    potential will be over the next few hours through about 09Z, with
    some weakening later towards northeast OK/southeast KS as MLCAPE decreases/MLCIN increases. With a recently evolving seahorse-type
    shape to the reflectivity in the ongoing maturation phase, embedded mesovortices will be capable of producing a brief tornado and/or
    significant severe gusts of 75-90 mph.

    ..Grams/Gleason.. 09/23/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-vRsR_C2XcKy2MFG88lyQ5LRtYtmWlSawsPJZobodTc4_3V4CkcytZBuiW-1Ye42KM2I6Lyiq= b2VjYuoF-54ZzCxiqA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

    LAT...LON 37639890 37909796 38009663 37899551 37509505 37209491
    36949494 36779509 36459554 36319710 36329857 37639890=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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