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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2121

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Sep 23 04:11:31 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 230408
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230407=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-230600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2121
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1107 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

    Areas affected...Central Plains

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617...

    Valid 230407Z - 230600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to expand in areal coverage
    over the central Plains. Hail/wind threat continues.

    DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale support appears to be
    correlated with an arcing band of convection from southwest
    KS-eastern OK/TX Panhandles. The northern most portion of this line
    may actually be associated with a weak midlevel vort. 1km flow is
    gradually increasing across western OK into south central KS, with
    25-35kt now common. Current thinking is thunderstorms will gradually
    expand in areal coverage along the leading edge of the LLJ,
    immediately ahead of the aforementioned midlevel vort, within the
    zone of strongest low-level warm advection. Some hail is likely with
    the strongest updrafts, but gusty winds may also be noted along the
    leading edge of the arcing band of convection, possibly extending a
    bit south of the watch across northwestern OK. An MCS may ultimately
    evolve over southern KS/northern OK which should propagate east into
    the early-morning hours.

    ..Darrow.. 09/23/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9bDIOc109-FWCaV9efqY6N1zFy_TWNctO7Kj9JZ7vq3rKcTwe0PXUYiBi_VuyX1ihvAXOju5o= H7be9yteD93BqF005A$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

    LAT...LON 36530130 38830200 38839792 36539734 36530130=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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