ACUS11 KWNS 230151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230151=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-230345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2120
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...portions of Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 230151Z - 230345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms could increase in areal coverage across portions of
Iowa into eastern Nebraska over the next several hours. Isolated
hail/wind may be noted with this activity.

DISCUSSION...Notable short-wave trough is settling southeast across
WI/northern IA this evening. This feature appears partly responsible
for organized frontal convection that is propagating south across
northern IA at this time. Latest diagnostic data suggests modest
buoyancy across eastern NE into western IA, but some inhibition is
observed as boundary layer begins to cool. Even so, lapse rates are
quite steep across this region and adequate 0-6km shear is
supportive of some organization. 00z sounding from OMA supports this
and weak low-level warm advection may continue to aid further
development. MRMS hail algorithm suggests several of these updrafts
are producing marginally severe hail. Over the next several hours
there may be a propensity for frontal convection to gradually
propagate/develop south, and a bit west into the stronger buoyancy.
More isolated activity west of the MO river should spread slowly
east within the weak low-level warm advection.

..Darrow/Kerr.. 09/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Wd7OtjLycD-qrRM-QFr1ovNGeBLPNqoW5FyBVICyGexSGxcO0NA7iaKswQGAWWHPsayYRyjd= gt6vrB4a0ghGsM3LyE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 41699752 42359499 42299297 41379275 40839436 40789664
41699752=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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