ACUS11 KWNS 222215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222214=20
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-230015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0514 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Areas affected...Eastern KY...Western WV...Southeast OH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 222214Z - 230015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A line of strong thunderstorms will affect parts of the
Upper Ohio Valley this evening, with a risk of locally
gusty/damaging winds. The environment is only marginally favorable
for severe storms, so a watch is unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows an increasingly organized
line of thunderstorms extending from Highland County OH southward to
Owsley County KY. These storms are moving at 30-35 knots, and have
shown a history of locally strong wind gusts and a few trees down.=20
While this activity will likely persist for several hours this
evening, the pre-storm environment shows considerable mid-level
moisture, weak lapse rates, and limited heating. MUCAPE values are
only in the 700-1200 J/kg range, and low-level shear is modest. All
of these variable suggest that the overall severe threat is marginal
and is unlikely to warrant a watch. Nevertheless, we will continue
to monitor trends and re-evaluate as needed.

..Hart/Kerr.. 09/22/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6WVjrhZQUCm02ftbb5nd8FUIxYv3cWt5ISaHI01egaytHSg4OWV3WcjJJVMc1BjjxS_8I3r3X= dYkUkjZKTM9PJg9UwE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON 37428379 39538307 40188223 39978070 38648095 37288316
37428379=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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