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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2116

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Sep 22 19:43:40 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 221943
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221943=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-222115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2116
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0243 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

    Areas affected...Far southeast Minnesota into
    west-central/southwestern Wisconsin and far northern Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 221943Z - 222115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and perhaps a tornado could occur near
    an outflow boundary in west-central Wisconsin and vicinity. A watch
    is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...On the southern flank of a positively tilted trough in
    the upper Great Lakes region, a severe storm has developed south of
    La Crosse, WI. This storm has formed along the edge of outflow from
    earlier convection. Strong heating to the southwest of this activity
    has promoted around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE in the vicinity of the
    Mississippi River. While storm coverage may remain isolated, 35 kts
    of 0-6 km shear (per KARX VAD) suggests supercells are possible.
    Mid-level lapse rates are modest, but cold air aloft would support
    large hail, especially with supercells. The KARX VAD also shows
    enlarged low-level hodographs (though low-level shear is larger in
    the cooler air). There will be at least a brief window for greater
    tornado potential along the outflow boundary before 850 mb veer
    later this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Smith.. 09/22/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7HRa3LNp71053lZ4IbgwTbEGWxpz6yXC7NddCYjsD3vx-_pWhtPpujeBJXGxgNPHKImC0DnkT= VbkyMVselOwSWxpx-k$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 43619048 43389014 43169000 43019024 43059068 43219127
    43309177 43399218 43489336 43759363 43999331 44039236
    43799111 43619048=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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