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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2115

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Sep 22 17:29:09 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 221729
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221728=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-222030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2115
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1228 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

    Areas affected...southeast Indiana and northern Kentucky into
    central Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 221728Z - 222030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Corridors of strong to damaging gusts may develop after
    20Z from southeast Indiana and northern Kentucky into central Ohio.

    DISCUSSION...An area of rain and thunderstorms associated with a
    midlevel disturbance is currently moving across southern Indiana.
    Ahead of this feature, scattered showers are evident in association
    with low-level warm advection over southern Ohio and northeast
    Kentucky.=20

    Heating and destabilization is most prominent south of these
    features into Kentucky, where visible satellite imagery shows areas
    of clearing. Precipitable water values are over 1.50", with MLCAPE
    currently in the 500-1000 J/kg range.

    As the midlevel wave translates northeast across Indiana and into
    Ohio, boundary layer mixing with gusty southwest winds during the
    peak heating hours will lead to strengthening storms, possibly
    linear in nature. Mean wind speeds of 30-40 kt in the low to mid
    levels and ample downdraft mass will result in strong wind gusts,
    perhaps damaging in spots. Any such line of storms tied to the
    vorticity max could exhibit periods of weak low-level rotation as
    well, perhaps resulting in localized severe gusts.

    ..Jewell/Smith.. 09/22/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-HNE3nrYC8bhhuJJxtf0BklqNfqthHAtHTai5jHhAHIzx8zNrIaY6MeWSZKGccEFCex7FM94l= gMUHpUQNChOtEoj7fM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

    LAT...LON 38528580 39188494 40378342 40478278 40558197 40248174
    39388181 38198292 38038367 37778611 38078627 38528580=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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