ACUS11 KWNS 220056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220056=20
TXZ000-220230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2114
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the southern Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616...

Valid 220056Z - 220230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will gradually decrease in intensity over
the next few hours. Until then, isolated wind/hail threat will
continue, primarily across southern and eastern portions of ww616.
New watch will not be issued.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm clusters that evolved along/near surface
front, along the northern plume of steep low-level lapse rates,
continue propagating southeast early this evening. Midlevel flow is
becoming more northwesterly as the southern Plains short-wave trough
approaches the Arklatex. 00z sounding from FWD exhibited fairly
steep lapse rates through 4-5km, with substantial PW values, though
possibly contaminated by nearby storms. As nocturnal cooling weakens
buoyancy, updrafts should gradually weaken. Latest radar trends
suggest this is already taking place. Even so, low-level inflow
remains favorable for this activity to propagate across much of the
remainder of north central TX, with at least an isolated wind/hail
risk for the next few hours. Greatest concentration of robust storms
will likely extend along a corridor from Erath-Dallas/Ellis County
through 03z.

..Darrow.. 09/22/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!99o3k2UwLVR9bhYg0s9kIJngwJ7owC28wNNk9GgWysfNkvf2Q-9poPfUfZK_15yENihJ3lLIP= -qgP2IqO-FVBYNmw0c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...

LAT...LON 32659863 33349661 32949619 32609680 32279827 32659863=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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