ACUS11 KWNS 212046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212046=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-212245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2110
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Areas affected...Parts of north Texas and far south-central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 212046Z - 212245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe risk will increase over the next few hours. The
primary concerns will be large hail and severe wind gusts. A watch
may be needed for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface observations and visible satellite
imagery indicate a remnant outflow boundary shifting slightly
northward in north-central TX -- potentially in response to an
evolving surface low over the Rolling Plains. Boundary-layer cumulus
is deepening along the outflow boundary, and isolated convective
initiation is underway. Ample diurnal heating/destabilization amid
upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints and steep midlevel lapse rates are
contributing to moderate surface-based buoyancy. This buoyancy and
around 50 kt of effective shear (with enhanced low-level clockwise
curvature) should initially favor a couple semi-discrete supercells
-- with a risk of large hail and locally severe wind gusts. With
time, storms may congeal into clusters while tracking
east-southeastward, which would promote an increasing severe-wind
risk. While the primary concern for severe storms is in north TX, a
couple strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail will
remain possible across southern OK.

While storm coverage and the spatial extent of the threat is
somewhat uncertain, a watch may be needed for parts of the area.

..Weinman/Smith.. 09/21/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-jz-TICx_T2No-fX3SeN14B0GsAHtQzucQzOx2DfhyPWe2EaRBUdRBbWtGhgu5sWvocK--cAe= ixxW10Sm3ky2R1ZNbI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 32629696 32339782 32199894 32349948 32839993 33260002
33589983 33819899 34089796 34579706 34599647 34159610
33469638 32629696=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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