ACUS11 KWNS 212004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212003=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-212200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2109
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...western Arkansas...and far
northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 212003Z - 212200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple strong storms may pose a risk of locally damaging
gusts and possibly marginal hail through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery shows a convectively
augmented midlevel trough moving slowly eastward across central OK,
while an accompanying MCV and related outflow boundary continue
eastward across eastern OK. Despite substantial cloud coverage ahead
of the trough, the boundary layer has warmed into the 80s amid upper
60s/lower 70s dewpoints (contributing to moderate surface-based
buoyancy) in the vicinity of the outflow boundary. While the SRX/INX
VWPs are only showing around 20 kt of 0-6 km shear, this should
continue strengthening to around 30 kt as stronger midlevel flow
accompanying the trough (sampled by TLX VWP) overspreads the area.
This may support a couple loosely organized clusters capable of
producing locally damaging gusts and possibly marginal hail through
the afternoon.

..Weinman/Smith.. 09/21/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4xfGZdotxlqP9ndHD667qmZFk2x6MQGfjDpy9ryQg9kzC-bai9oUcAcqIicnwCioAO0i2G_5T= B3Cn417tIO8MLZiogU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34179605 34729601 35409575 35779577 36109565 36429536
36509483 36439412 35899380 34989385 34279421 33669467
33539518 33749581 34179605=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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