ACUS11 KWNS 211824
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211824=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-212030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2108
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Areas affected...Southern into eastern Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 211824Z - 212030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A northeasterly moving cluster of storms may produce
isolated wind damage as low-level lapse rates become more favorable
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A weak MCV in northern Kentucky has promoted the
development of a small cluster of storms in southern Ohio. This
activity is expected to move northeast through the afternoon. The
morning observed sounding from Wilmington suggests that MLCIN has
just now eroded as temperatures have risen into the low/mid 80s F.
Continued heating should steepen low-level lapse rates further. The
KILN VAD shows under 20 kts of 0-6 km shear and the mid-level lapse
rates observed on the sounding were also quite modest (~6 C/km).
Without stronger low-level flow or more robust updrafts, the
potential for wind damage with this cluster is likely to remain
spatially and temporally limited.

..Wendt/Smith.. 09/21/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8-AoJypwMgLjXwGEn2aOlqbYXCS0KurO9QEUaROdVd289zXej0gMBALOOg1Gpmh6oPX4NJuzj= HxfJ73zY95he1qAFK4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON 38448389 39128454 39898397 41178249 41208158 40758133
39348222 38498318 38448389=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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