ACUS02 KWNS 200600
SWODY2
SPC AC 200559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will exist across the Upper Midwest on Sunday
with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs extending within mostly
zonal flow from the Mid-Atlantic to the central Rockies. A split
flow pattern will exist along the West Coast with a trough across
the Pacific Northwest and off the southern California coast. A
surface low will exist off the East Coast. Otherwise, the surface
pattern will be nebulous with weak lee troughing along the central
and northern Plains. A weak surface low may be present across the
western Great Lakes, ahead of the mid-level shortwave trough.

...Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast across the Ohio Valley and
into the Great Lakes where mid 60s dewpoints will be present.
Forecast soundings show minimal inhibition by mid afternoon with
weak height falls across the warm sector. CAM guidance consistently
shows scattered thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon/evening
across the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes associated with a fast-moving
mid-level shortwave trough. A belt of stronger mid-level flow (35 to
40 knots) is forecast to overspread the warm sector during the afternoon/evening. This will lead to increasing deep-layer shear
which would aid in storm organization. A few strong to severe storms
capable of damaging wind gusts are possible Sunday
afternoon/evening.

...OK/KS Vicinity...
A cluster of storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the
period across Oklahoma. If sufficient destabilization can occur
ahead of this cluster, a few strong storms could develop Sunday afternoon/evening. In addition, a weak mid-level shortwave trough
(convectively enhanced by Day 1 convection across the central
Rockies) may move across Kansas Sunday afternoon. However, given the low-amplitude nature of this wave and its dependence on Day 1
convection, considerable uncertainty in the amplitude and timing of
this mid-level shortwave trough exists. This precludes the addition
of severe weather probabilities at this time, despite a somewhat
favorable thermodynamic environment and potentially favorable shear
if mid-level flow enhancement overspreads the same area.

..Bentley.. 09/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201731
SWODY2
SPC AC 201729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS...THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...AND THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of north
Texas and the Middle Missouri Valley, with the main risk being large
hail. A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of locally
damaging gusts are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley into the
Great Lakes.

...North Texas...
Convection will likely be ongoing across southwest OK into western
north TX at the start of the forecast period, which should lay out
an outflow boundary across parts of north TX. Along/south of the
outflow boundary and to the east of a lee trough/dryline feature, boundary-layer moisture advection and ample diurnal heating beneath
relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong
surface-based buoyancy and minimal inhibition by the afternoon.
Aided by a glancing midlevel wave and related jet streak crossing
western OK, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
near the lee trough and residual outflow boundary during the
afternoon. A long/straight hodograph (around 40-50 kt of effective
shear) and the aforementioned buoyancy should promote a couple
splitting supercell structures, posing a risk of large hail. Severe
wind gusts will also be possible, especially with any convective
clustering that occurs with southeastward extent.

...Ohio Valley and Great Lakes...
Downstream of a midlevel trough moving across the Upper MS Valley, broad/enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow will overspread a weak to
moderately unstable and uncapped warm sector extending from the OH
Valley into the Great Lakes. Potentially aided by a convectively
augmented midlevel impulse moving into the Lower OH Valley, widely
scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon. Around
20-25 kt of effective shear and a warm/moist PBL will favor a few
loosely organized multicell clusters, capable of producing locally
damaging gusts through the afternoon.

...Middle Missouri Valley...
Within the base of a midlevel trough over the Upper MS Valley,
isolated thunderstorms should develop near a weak surface low near
southeast SD. While boundary-layer moisture will be limited, cold
temperatures aloft/steep lapse rates and sufficient buoyancy should
support a couple loosely organized cells. Marginally severe hail
will be possible with the stronger storms that evolve during the
evening into overnight hours.

..Weinman.. 09/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210558
SWODY2
SPC AC 210557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across
portions of the central and southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, a mid-level trough will move from the upper
Midwest/Missouri Valley to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley during the
period. Farther west, a more complicated pattern will develop as a
ridge builds into the Pacific Northwest. As this ridge builds, a
mid-level jet streak will be shunted south across the central
Rockies. This will deepen a mid-level low with a closed circulation
likely developing across the central High Plains region by 12Z
Tuesday. In addition, a closed low will persist off the southern
California coast for much of the period. High pressure will be
present across much of the western CONUS with weak lee troughing
along the central and southern High Plains. The surface pattern will
be somewhat less defined farther east with a weak remnant front
likely through the Upper Midwest to the western Great Lakes. High
pressure will dominate areas east of the Appalachians.

...Central Plains...
Moderate to strong instability will develop by Monday afternoon in
the wake of a morning MCS across Oklahoma/Kansas. Forecast soundings
show a strongly capped airmass across Kansas/Oklahoma and given the
relatively weak forcing amid modest height falls, do not expect much thunderstorm development until after 00Z. After this time, the
mid-level trough will start to overspread the Plains with a
strengthening low-level jet potentially approaching 50 knots.
Cooling temperatures aloft and strong isentropic ascent should
result in thunderstorm development after sunset Monday evening. Seep
mid-level lapse rates and strengthening effective shear (40 to 50
knots) will support the potential for supercells with some hail
threat. As upscale growth continues, the severe wind threat should
increase and continue into the overnight period into portions of central/northern Oklahoma.

...NE/IA to Lake Michigan...
Diurnal thunderstorm development is possible along a diffuse frontal
zone from Nebraska to southern Wisconsin. Modest lapse rates and
moderate instability along this zone will support some multicells
capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts. However, mostly weak
deep-layer shear (20 knots) and weak upper forcing should keep the
overall threat along this zone relatively isolated.

...Tennessee Valley to the eastern Great Lakes...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of
it. An uncapped airmass and some moderate upper-level support in a
broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should
support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be
poor, but modest effective shear amid 30 to 35 knots of mid-level
flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind
gusts Monday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 09/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210617
SWODY2
SPC AC 210616

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT HAIL GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across
portions of the central and southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, a mid-level trough will move from the upper
Midwest/Missouri Valley to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley during the
period. Farther west, a more complicated pattern will develop as a
ridge builds into the Pacific Northwest. As this ridge builds, a
mid-level jet streak will be shunted south across the central
Rockies. This will deepen a mid-level low with a closed circulation
likely developing across the central High Plains region by 12Z
Tuesday. In addition, a closed low will persist off the southern
California coast for much of the period. High pressure will be
present across much of the western CONUS with weak lee troughing
along the central and southern High Plains. The surface pattern will
be somewhat less defined farther east with a weak remnant front
likely through the Upper Midwest to the western Great Lakes. High
pressure will dominate areas east of the Appalachians.

...Central Plains...
Moderate to strong instability will develop by Monday afternoon in
the wake of a morning MCS across Oklahoma/Kansas. Forecast soundings
show a strongly capped airmass across Kansas/Oklahoma and given the
relatively weak forcing amid modest height falls, do not expect much thunderstorm development until after 00Z. After this time, the
mid-level trough will start to overspread the Plains with a
strengthening low-level jet potentially approaching 50 knots.
Cooling temperatures aloft and strong isentropic ascent should
result in thunderstorm development after sunset Monday evening. Seep
mid-level lapse rates and strengthening effective shear (40 to 50
knots) will support the potential for supercells with some hail
threat. As upscale growth continues, the severe wind threat should
increase and continue into the overnight period into portions of central/northern Oklahoma.

...NE/IA to Lake Michigan...
Diurnal thunderstorm development is possible along a diffuse frontal
zone from Nebraska to southern Wisconsin. Modest lapse rates and
moderate instability along this zone will support some multicells
capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts. However, mostly weak
deep-layer shear (20 knots) and weak upper forcing should keep the
overall threat along this zone relatively isolated.

...Tennessee Valley to the eastern Great Lakes...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of
it. An uncapped airmass and some moderate upper-level support in a
broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should
support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be
poor, but modest effective shear amid 30 to 35 knots of mid-level
flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind
gusts Monday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 09/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211740
SWODY2
SPC AC 211739

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... THE
EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across
portions of the central/southern High Plains and the low to mid
Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
A broad troughing pattern with two embedded upper-lows will be in
place from the Northern Rockies into the Great Lakes region, with
high pressure building in across the West. A diffuse frontal
boundary will extend from the upper Great Lakes region into the
central High Plains. Much of the central/southern Plains is expected
to remain strongly capped through much of the day, with late
thunderstorm development expected as the front shifts southward
overnight.

...Central and Southern Plains...
Convection will move across Oklahoma late in the D1 period on
Sunday. In the wake of this convection, appreciable MLCIN is
expected across much of western Oklahoma into Kansas. Strong daytime
heating is expected under broken mid to high level clouds. Daytime
temperatures are expected to get into the mid to upper 80s with
convective temps approaching and exceeding 90 F. This should delay
thunderstorm development into the evening as the cooling from the
upper wave and cold front approach from the west.

Given the late development and linear forcing, mode is likely to be
linear/MCS with potential for hail early on with any more discrete
cells that can form along and ahead of the front in western Kansas.
A southerly low-level jet is expected to steadily increase through
the evening, with low level curvature of the hodographs noted from
00z onward. This may support embedded circulations within the more
linear mode and potential for some tornado risk overnight. For now,
confidence is low in a tornado risk developing because of the late
timing of the upper wave and mode concerns. A Slight Risk was
maintained and expanded eastward into eastern/northern Oklahoma with
this outlook.

...NE/IA to Lake Michigan...
Thunderstorm development is expected in the afternoon across the
diffuse boundary from Nebraska to the Lake Michigan region. Modest
lapse rates and moderate instability along this zone will support
some multicells capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts.
Confidence is greater in coverage of storms and more concentrated
severe risk across portions of eastern Nebraska into southern Iowa.
While deep layer shear will be modest around 20-30 kts, a few
instances of large hail may be possible across eastern Nebraska
before a transition to more of a damaging wind threat. A Slight Risk
was added to account for this risk.

...Tennessee Valley to the Lower Great Lakes...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of
it. An uncapped air mass and some moderate upper-level support in a
broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should
support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be
poor, but modest effective shear amid 20 to 30 knots of mid-level
flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind
gusts Monday afternoon/evening.

..Thornton.. 09/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220559
SWODY2
SPC AC 220557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Strongest thunderstorm activity is
expected across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and
Arkansas, where supercells capable of all severe hazards are
possible by afternoon.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across
eastern Colorado and shift east through the day to the Missouri
Valley region by 12Z Wednesday. A 40 to 50 knot mid-level jet streak
associated with overnight convection Monday night across KS/OK will
shift east across MO/AR during the day Tuesday and gradually weaken.
In its wake, the primary mid-level jet streak will emerge across
Oklahoma and strengthen Tuesday night as it moves from Oklahoma into
Arkansas. A weak surface low is forecast to be across northwest
Oklahoma Tuesday morning. This surface low and its associated cold
front will drift slowly east through the day.

...Eastern Oklahoma into much of Arkansas and northeast Texas...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning across eastern
Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma on the nose of a
40 to 50 knot low-level jet. As the low-level jet weakens during the
morning and storms move east of the greatest shear/instability,
expect the MCS to weaken. Some isolated damaging wind gusts may
persist across northern Arkansas/southern Missouri and into TN/KY,
but expect this activity to remain mostly sub-severe.

The primary severe weather concern will be Tuesday afternoon/evening
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Strong instability is
forecast across this region in the wake of the morning MCS as cool
temperatures aloft overspread low to mid 70s dewpoints. RAP/NAM
forecast soundings show only modest heating is necessary to erode
inhibition. Therefore, expect additional thunderstorm development
during the afternoon along and ahead of the cold front as it moves
across Oklahoma. Storm motion orthogonal to the front should favor
movement along and perhaps off of the front and into the warm
sector. Therefore, all severe hazards will be possible across this
region in a favorable environment featuring strong instability,
moderate deep-layer shear, and elongating, cyclonically curved
hodographs.

A conditional, potentially more volatile tornado threat is possible
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas if significant
destabilization can occur north of any outflow boundary left by
morning convection. 03Z RAP/00Z NAM forecast soundings near Fort
Smith capture this conditional environment well and would
potentially support strong tornadoes. However, this evolution is
highly dependent on the evolution of Day 1 convection across Kansas
and Oklahoma which still remains unclear. In addition, the time
window for this favorable environment would be narrow which also
adds conditionality to the risk. This scenario will be monitored
closely and a Level 3/Enhanced Risk may be justified in later
outlooks if this scenario appears more likely.

...Central Texas...
Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas
Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear
will be relatively weak, but will increase during the
afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most
favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point
where the cold front and dryline intersect across North Texas.
However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the
dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday
afternoon/evening.

...Tennessee Valley...
A weak warm front may be a focus for storm development Tuesday afternoon/evening across western/middle Tennessee as moderate
instability develops across the region. Deep-layer shear should
remain quite weak (less than 20 knots) as the primary mid-level jet
streak remains farther west. However, a few stronger storms capable
of damaging wind gusts may develop during the afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 09/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221732
SWODY2
SPC AC 221730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee
Valley on Tuesday. The strongest thunderstorm activity is expected
across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and Arkansas, where
supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible by afternoon.

...Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and northeast Texas...
A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly
south-southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains
through the period. Downstream of the trough, a convectively
augmented midlevel impulse and accompanying 50 kt jet will track
eastward across KS and northern OK during the day. A related MCS
will be advancing eastward across eastern KS, northern OK, and
southwest MO on Tuesday morning -- at the nose of a 40 kt low-level
jet. Instances of severe wind and hail will be possible with this
activity, especially along its southern flank where buoyancy will be
maximized.

In the wake of these storms, a weak surface low will track eastward
across northern OK, while a southward-extending cold front moves
slowly eastward from central into eastern OK. Despite early-day
convective overturning across parts of eastern OK, diurnal heating
amid lower 70s dewpoints should erode inhibition and support widely
scattered thunderstorms both along/immediately ahead of the front
and along residual outflow boundaries. Strong surface-based buoyancy
and around 40 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the front
should initially favor a few semi-discrete supercells from eastern
OK into AR. These storms will pose a risk of large hail, severe wind
gusts, and perhaps a couple tornadoes -- given clockwise curved
low-level hodographs (upwards of 200 m2/s2 effective SRH).

Storms should gradually grow upscale as they move southeastward into
the evening/overnight hours. Higher wind/tornado probabilities were
considered over eastern OK into AR given the favorable environment,
though continued uncertainty regarding early-day convection and
implications on storm mode limit forecast confidence at this time.

...Central Texas...
Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas
Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear
will be relatively weak, but will increase during the
afternoon/evening as a mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most
favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point
where the cold front intersects a dryline across North Texas.
However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the
dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday
afternoon/evening.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Downstream of a broad midlevel trough, widely scattered
thunderstorms will be evolving in a moist/moderately unstable air
mass during the afternoon. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may
promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally
damaging gusts.

..Weinman.. 09/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221953
SWODY2
SPC AC 221951

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...

CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the Tennessee
Valley on Tuesday. The strongest thunderstorm activity is expected
across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and Arkansas, where
supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible by afternoon.

...Eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and northeast Texas...
A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly
south-southeastward across the central Rockies and adjacent Plains
through the period. Downstream of the trough, a convectively
augmented midlevel impulse and accompanying 50 kt jet will track
eastward across KS and northern OK during the day. A related MCS
will be advancing eastward across eastern KS, northern OK, and
southwest MO on Tuesday morning -- at the nose of a 40 kt low-level
jet. Instances of severe wind and hail will be possible with this
activity, especially along its southern flank where buoyancy will be
maximized.

In the wake of these storms, a weak surface low will track eastward
across northern OK, while a southward-extending cold front moves
slowly eastward from central into eastern OK. Despite early-day
convective overturning across parts of eastern OK, diurnal heating
amid lower 70s dewpoints should erode inhibition and support widely
scattered thunderstorms both along/immediately ahead of the front
and along residual outflow boundaries. Strong surface-based buoyancy
and around 40 kt of effective shear oriented oblique to the front
should initially favor a few semi-discrete supercells from eastern
OK into AR. These storms will pose a risk of large hail, severe wind
gusts, and perhaps a couple tornadoes -- given clockwise curved
low-level hodographs (upwards of 200 m2/s2 effective SRH).

Storms should gradually grow upscale as they move southeastward into
the evening/overnight hours. Higher wind/tornado probabilities were
considered over eastern OK into AR given the favorable environment,
though continued uncertainty regarding early-day convection and
implications on storm mode limit forecast confidence at this time.

...Central Texas...
Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas
Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear
will be relatively weak, but will increase during the
afternoon/evening as a mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most
favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point
where the cold front intersects a dryline across North Texas.
However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the
dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday
afternoon/evening.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Downstream of a broad midlevel trough, widely scattered
thunderstorms will be evolving in a moist/moderately unstable air
mass during the afternoon. Around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear may
promote a couple loosely organized clusters with a risk of locally
damaging gusts.

..Weinman.. 09/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230558
SWODY2
SPC AC 230556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are
expected from the Middle Ohio Valley to south Texas on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will extend from the Great
Lakes to the southern Plains at 12Z Wednesday. This trough will
drift slowly southeast through the period with a broad mid-level jet
extending from Texas to the Northeast. A weak surface low will move
northeast along a frontal zone from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to
the Upper Ohio Valley during the day Wednesday.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians...
Extensive convection is expected along the cold front in the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday morning.
Expansive cloudcover will limit heating across a moist warm sector
featuring dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. The moist airmass
will result in weak instability ahead of the cold front from
Mississippi to southern Indiana and Ohio. A broad zone of 30 to 40
knots of mid-level flow over this warm sector will provide ample
shear for storm organization if stronger updrafts can develop.
Expect some stronger storms, particularly where any filtered heating
may result in greater instability, but overall expect severe chances
to be more isolated/sporadic given the relatively weak lapse
rates/instability.

...South Texas into Louisiana...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along a cold front across
central Texas Wednesday morning. These storms will likely weaken
during the morning as the low-level jet weakens/veers. Moderate
instability is forecast to develop south of the front which will
support redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Shear will be
relatively weak along this zone (20 to 25 knots), but convergence
along the front, moderate instability, and PWAT values near 2 inches
may support a few water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging wind
gusts.

..Bentley.. 09/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231732
SWODY2
SPC AC 231730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are
expected from southern Ohio and far southwest Pennsylvania into
southern Texas on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will remain nearly stationary over Lower MI, with the
upper trough extending southwestward toward the southern Plains
during the day, and sweeping eastward toward the MS Valley late.
Within the southwest flow regime, two distinct waves are forecast,
one over OH, and another moving from the Red River toward the lower
MS Valley.

At the surface, an elongated boundary/wind shift will extend from OH
into central TX during the day, with a moist air mass to the east.
Instability looks to be strongest MS/AL southwestward into TX, with
dewpoints in the 70s F.

...East TX/Arklatex/Lower MS and TN Valleys...
A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to be ongoing over parts of northern/northeast TX, and this activity is expected to continue
south with the boundary. Locally strong outflow/gusts are possible.
Additional activity will develop along the length of the boundary
during the day, across the MS Valley and toward the TN Valley, with multicellular and/or linear storm mode producing sporadic severe
gusts.

...OH/PA...
Models indicate ongoing rain and thunderstorms early Wednesday over
OH, within a zone of warm advection with southwest 850 mb winds.
Uncertainty exists as to how strong the low-level shear will be
within the warm advection zone, but a warm front should move
northward across OH and parts of western PA. Instability will likely
be the limiting factor to severe potential. In addition, some models
indicate a stronger midlevel wave with much stronger 850 mb winds,
resulting in both stronger SRH values and theta-e advection. Given
the conditional threat of rotating storms, the Marginal Risk as been
nudged northward.

..Jewell.. 09/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240552
SWODY2
SPC AC 240551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New
England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible
with the strongest storms.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will weaken as it moves slowly
east on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, a broad 35 to 45 knot
mid-level jet will extend from the Southeast to New England and the
Northeast. A surface low will deepen slightly as it moves through
the eastern Great Lakes.

...Mid-Atlantic to New England...
Extensive thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the
beginning of the period from the central Appalachians into the
eastern Great Lakes. This will result in widespread cloudcover and
minimal surface heating across the warm sector on Thursday. However,
upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints and gradually cooling temperatures
aloft will result in some instability. Around 40 knots of effective
shear and cyclonically curved hodographs may support some storm
organization, but overall, expect the weak instability to limit the
overall severe weather threat.

...Southeast...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front
across the Southeast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures
in the low 80s. Despite the favorable instability, weak lapse rates
(<6 C/km) and only modest shear (25 to 30 knots) will limit storm
intensity. Stronger updrafts amid 2+ inch PWAT values will support
the potential for some water loaded downdrafts Thursday
afternoon/evening.

...Carolinas into Virginia...
Slightly greater severe weather chances may be present across the
Carolinas into Virginia Thursday afternoon where moderate
instability and moderate shear may overlap. Lapse rates will still
remain quite weak, but moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of
effective shear may result in a few stronger storms/clusters capable
of damaging wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 09/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241734
SWODY2
SPC AC 241733

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New
England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief
tornado will be possible with the strongest storms.

...Mid Atlantic into the Northeast...
A broad upper low over the OH Valley will gradually devolve into a positive-tilt trough before moving eastward over the Northeast
Thursday. At the surface, a weak low will traverse the St Lawrence
Valley dragging a cold front the OH Valley and Appalachians.
Extensive thunderstorm activity and cloud debris will likely be
ongoing at the beginning of the period ahead of the front from the
central Appalachians into the eastern Great Lakes. An effective warm
frontal zone is forecast to develop eastward from the advancing low
to across southern New England, though there remains some
uncertainty how far north destabilization may occur. With widespread
clouds, minimal surface heating and poor lapse rates are expected
over much of the warm sector. Still, a very moist air mass with 60s
to 70s F dewpoints should support some weak buoyancy (MLCAPE
generally less than 1000 J/kg). Southwesterly flow aloft will favor
slightly cyclonically curved hodographs with around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear. This could support some storm organization ahead
of the front into linear clusters with transient updraft rotation.
Isolated damaging gusts are the most likely threat, though a brief
QLCS tornado is also possible near the effective front where
low-level flow is more backed. However, given the limited buoyancy
and marginal storm organization, a broader severe risk appears
unlikely.

...Southern Appalachians and Southeast...
Several bands or loosely organized clusters of storms are likely to
be ongoing at the start of the period over portions of MS/AL into GA
and upstate SC ahead of the front. Some diurnal heating of the
seasonably moist air mass should result in moderate buoyancy and
some renewal in intensity during the afternoon. However, poor
mid-level lapse rates and high PWAT values near 2 inches suggest
generally weaker updrafts. Limited storm organization from 30 kt of
mid-level flow suggests only sporadic damaging gust potential with
water-loaded downdrafts.

Somewhat greater clearing may allow for stronger surface heating and
subsequent destabilization Thursday afternoon over portions of the
Carolinas and southern VA. This could support more robust
thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While the stronger
flow aloft will likely remain displaced farther north, at least some
overlap with the larger buoyancy could support a few organized
multicell clusters with a locally greater damaging wind potential
with strong outflow winds through Thursday evening.

...Southwest...
An upper low over central CA will move over the Southwest late
Thursday into D3/Friday. Cool mid-level temperatures within the low
will overspread residual monsoon moisture supporting scattered to
numerous thunderstorms over portion of NV, southeastern CA and AZ.
Flow aloft will not be overly strong, but should increase to 30 kt
overnight. This could allow for some longer-lived storms despite
only modest buoyancy and. Isolated severe gusts are possible owing
to the high-based nature of the storms with steep low-level lapse
rates. However, the overnight timing and limited organization
potential suggests the threat will be isolated.

..Lyons.. 09/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250547
SWODY2
SPC AC 250546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA....

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
southern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Closed upper lows are forecast to develop near California and the
Tennessee Valley on Friday. A cold front will linger near the
Southeast Coast and another cold front will traverse the northern
Plains. Otherwise, the surface pattern will remain quite nebulous.

...Southwest...
Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected by mid-day
Friday as monsoon moisture is drawn north ahead of the closed upper
low. This will result in widespread thunderstorm activity,
potentially starting by late morning. Mid level flow between 30 and
40 knots will round the base of the mid-level trough and overspread
southern Arizona. This may provide sufficient shear for a few
organized storms/transient supercells. Mid-level lapse rates will
continue to steepen through the day which, when combined with some
organized storm potential, may result in some large hail. In
addition, the steep lapse rates and hot/dry sub-cloud layer may
result in some stronger downdrafts capable of severe wind gusts.

...Southeast...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop along a cold front near
the southeast US coast on Friday. Minimal inhibition with at least
some weak upper-level support should result in thunderstorm
development along the front Friday afternoon/evening. Very poor
lapse rates may limit overall updraft intensity despite modest
deep-layer shear. A few stronger cells may be possible, but the
overall severe weather threat along this front should remain low.

..Bentley.. 09/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251705
SWODY2
SPC AC 251704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible across portions of
southern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico on Friday.

...Synopsis...
The primary storm track will remain over Canada on Friday, with
generally weak flow aloft over most of the CONUS. However, two
slow-moving upper-level features will provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. One is an upper low that will be centered
over the Southwest, and the other is a weaker upper low/open-wave
trough over the Southeast.

...AZ...
An upper low will slowly deepen over southern CA, with cooling aloft
spreading into AZ. Cool midlevel temperatures will exist over AZ,
which will require little heating to remove convective inhibition.
In addition, a substantial moist plume will exist over southern AZ,
curling northwestward toward southern NV.

It appears that thunderstorms will form relatively early in the day
along the Rim where weak upslope flow will exist, with additional
convection developing over south-central and southeastern AZ.
Although shear will not be strong, veering winds with height and
robust CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg may support brief
hail in the strongest cells. As storms increase in coverage,
aggregate outflow may result in locally damaging gusts as well.

...Southeast...
A weak surface trough will develop over the Carolinas into southeast
GA as daytime heating steepens low-level lapse rates. In the
midlevels, little if any cooling aloft is expected given the
meridional winds aloft, but the moist air mass should result in
about 1500 J/kg MUCAPE by afternoon. Given weak shear and poor lapse
rates aloft, severe weather appears unlikely, but a few strong gusts
may occur.

..Jewell.. 09/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260435
SWODY2
SPC AC 260434

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

...Discussion...
An initially strong, zonal jet across the northern mid-latitude
Pacific is undergoing amplification, and this appears likely to
include consolidating, deepening large-scale mid/upper troughing
across the eastern Pacific into British Columbia/Pacific Northwest
coast by the end of the period. Downstream, within a much weaker
branch of westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical
latitudes, a mid-level low may slowly begin to pivot east/northeast
of the lower Colorado Valley, while a downstream high rebuilds to
the east/northeast of the mid/lower Missouri Valley. The evolution
of weak mid-level troughing across the Southeast remains more
unclear, but it does appear that a mid/upper high centered near
Bermuda will become more prominent, to the north and northeast of a
pair of developing tropical cyclones, including one which may
continue slowly migrating north-northwestward across the Bahamas
vicinity Saturday through Saturday night.

Beneath the mid-level troughing across the Southwest and southern
Rockies, and across the Southeast (which may also include a residual
cyclonic circulation near the southern Appalachians), models
continue to indicate only modest to weak diurnal destabilization
Saturday. While this will probably be sufficient to contribute to
scattered thunderstorm activity during the afternoon into evening,
with deep-layer mean flow and shear remaining generally weak, the
risk for severe thunderstorms still appears negligible.

..Kerr.. 09/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260838
SWODY2
SPC AC 260837

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

...Discussion...
An initially strong, zonal jet across the northern mid-latitude
Pacific is undergoing amplification, and this appears likely to
include consolidating, deepening large-scale mid/upper troughing
across the eastern Pacific into British Columbia/Pacific Northwest
coast by the end of the period. Downstream, within a much weaker
branch of westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical
latitudes, a mid-level low may slowly begin to pivot east/northeast
of the lower Colorado Valley, while a downstream high rebuilds to
the east/northeast of the mid/lower Missouri Valley. The evolution
of weak mid-level troughing across the Southeast remains more
unclear, but it does appear that a mid/upper high centered near
Bermuda will become more prominent, to the north and northeast of a
pair of developing tropical cyclones, including one which may
continue slowly migrating north-northwestward across the Bahamas
vicinity Saturday through Saturday night.

Beneath the mid-level troughing across the Southwest and southern
Rockies, and across the Southeast (which may also include a residual
cyclonic circulation near the southern Appalachians), models
continue to indicate only modest to weak diurnal destabilization
Saturday. While this will probably be sufficient to contribute to
scattered thunderstorm activity during the afternoon into evening,
with deep-layer mean flow and shear remaining generally weak, the
risk for severe thunderstorms still appears negligible.

..Kerr.. 09/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261647
SWODY2
SPC AC 261645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will shift east/northeast
through the period. Enhanced mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will
overspread eastern portions of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic
ahead of a surface cold front. While a very moist airmass will be in
place (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints), ongoing showers and
thunderstorms Saturday morning and persistent cloudiness will limit
daytime heating. As a result, only weak destabilization is expected
amid weak lapse rates. While some locally gusty winds will be
possible, overall severe potential is expected to be low.

Across the western U.S., a closed upper low will persist over the Southwest/southern CA vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will
maintain a modestly moist airmass as weak destabilization is
forecast (generally less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Stronger
destabilization will be tempered by cloudiness and poor midlevel
lapse rates. Weak vertical shear is also forecast. Nevertheless,
where stronger heating occurs, steepened low-level lapse rates could
support locally gusty winds with stronger thunderstorms. Small,
sub-severe hail also could occur with stronger storms given
temperatures at or below -10 C near/above 500 mb. Overall, severe
potential is expected to remain low.

..Leitman.. 09/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270446
SWODY2
SPC AC 270445

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Latest model output indicates little change from prior runs
concerning the large-scale pattern evolution through this period.
It still appears that amplified troughing within the mid-latitude
westerlies will continue to slowly advance inland of the North
American Pacific coast. As this occurs, downstream ridging across
the Canadian Prairies likely will become more amplified, while flow
farther east trends broadly cyclonic across the eastern Canadian
provinces through the northwestern Atlantic.

Within the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes to the south and
east of this regime, shorter wavelength developments within
generally weak flow remain more unclear due to model
spread. However, broad, weak mid-level troughing may continue to
shift east-northeast of the lower Colorado Valley through the
southern Rockies, while large-scale weak mid-level troughing lingers
across the Southeast, to the southeast of developing high over the
Midwest. At the same time, a pair of evolving tropical cyclones may
continue to progress west-northwestward across parts of the
southwestern Atlantic through Bahamas vicinity, to the southwest of
a notable high centered near Bermuda.

Similar to Saturday, due to generally weak deep-layer mean wind
fields and rather modest to weak diurnal destabilization, the risk
for severe thunderstorms across the U.S. appears negligible.
However, scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorm development
appears probable across parts of the Intermountain West and Rockies,
as well as across parts of the Southeast.

..Kerr.. 09/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271658
SWODY2
SPC AC 271656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the Contiguous U.S.
tomorrow (Sunday).

...Synopsis...
Broad yet weak mid-level troughing will overspread the western U.S.
while upper ridging dominates the CONUS east of the Rockies tomorrow
(Sunday). A weak surface low will meander over the Baja Peninsula
while surface high pressure will overspread the Rockies, as well as
the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes and northern Appalachians.
As such, the best chance for thunderstorms will be across portions
of the Interior West, where upper support with the mid-level trough
will lift a marginally buoyant airmass. Thunderstorms will also be
possible across the Florida Peninsula, up to the Carolina coastline,
where convective bands associated with Tropical Depression Nine
attempt to move ashore amid marginal instability. The chance of any
severe in these aforementioned areas is very low, so severe
probabilities are not currently warranted.

..Squitieri.. 09/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280447
SWODY2
SPC AC 280445

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible Monday through
Monday night.

...Discussion...
Latest model output indicates little change from prior runs
concerning the larger-scale flow evolution through this period.
Amplification within the westerlies is forecast to translate
eastward, with mid-level ridging building across much of interior
Canada and adjacent portions of the northern U.S. and downstream
troughing slowly digging across the northwestern Atlantic through
Canadian Maritimes and northern New England. Upstream, large-scale
troughing across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into western North
America may lose some amplitude, as a couple of embedded short waves
progress northeastward inland of coastal areas. However, it appears
that deeper troughing will be reinforced offshore of the southern
British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by a couple of much more
vigorous digging short wave perturbations, which models indicate
will probably provide support for renewed strong cyclogenesis across
the northeastern Pacific.

In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes preceding this regime,
mid-level troughing within generally weak flow is forecast to slowly
shift northeast and east of the southern Rockies into the Great
Plains Monday through Monday night. However, a modest blocking
downstream high will probably be maintained across the Midwest, with
weak mid-level troughing lingering across the Southeast.

A pair of tropical cyclones are likely to continue slowly migrating north-northwestward across parts of the subtropical western
Atlantic, including one north of the Bahamas toward the Carolina
coast.

...Southeast Atlantic coastal areas...
Based on latest model output concerning the most probable track of
Tropical Depression Nine through 12Z Tuesday, the environment
becoming potentially conducive to low-topped supercells capable of
producing tornadoes, as it perhaps strengthens to a hurricane to the
east of the Florida Peninsula, will likely remain well offshore of
south Atlantic coastal areas.

..Kerr.. 09/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281646
SWODY2
SPC AC 281644

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Monday).

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will impinge on the Interior West while a
tropical cyclone parallels the FL Peninsula and encroaches on the
Carolina shoreline tomorrow (Monday). Deep-layer ascent with the
western trough will encourage the development of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin into the
northern Rockies. Given strong vertical wind shear amid scant
buoyancy, some of the stronger storms over NV into OR and ID may
produce strong wind gusts. Multiple weak mid-level impulses
preceding the western upper trough will traverse the Rockies and the
Upper MS Valley, providing enough lift of a moist airmass to support
isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms in these regions.

Outer rainbands from TD9 will approach the FL Peninsula and Carolina
coastline through the period. However, current forecast trajectories
of TD9 suggest that the northeast quadrant rainbands (and
accompanying favorable buoyancy/shear profiles) should remain
offshore. As such, no tornado probabilities have been introduced
this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 09/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290452
SWODY2
SPC AC 290450

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Latest model output indicates little change from prior runs
concerning the larger-scale pattern evolution through this period.
In the wake of a significant digging short wave trough, downstream
of amplified mid-level ridging slowly shifting eastward through the
Hudson Bay/Ontario/upper Great Lakes vicinity, models indicate that
expansive cool surface ridging will begin to build across much of
the eastern Canadian provinces through Great Lakes, Northeast and
Mid Atlantic by late Tuesday night, beneath a strongly confluent
regime. Upstream, a significant mid-level trough and associated
deep lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone are forecast to continue slowly
approaching southern British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coastal
areas, preceded by a couple of weak short wave perturbations
accompanied by modestly deepening surface troughing across the
Canadian Prairies into the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies.

In lower latitudes, within a belt of weaker flow to the south of a
blocking mid-level high lingering over the Midwest/middle
Mississippi Valley, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to dig
offshore of the Texas Gulf coast into the western Gulf Basin. As a
downstream trough begins to slowly progress offshore of the south
Atlantic Seaboard, guidance generally indicates that Imelda will
slowly accelerate eastward, further away from the south Atlantic
Seaboard.

As this regime evolves, it is possible that residual low-level
moisture and/or cooling aloft may contribute to areas with
sufficient destabilization for scattered thunderstorm development,
from near the Pacific Northwest coast, across the Rockies and parts
of the Upper Midwest. Orographic forcing, and lift associated with
a digging perturbation within cyclonic flow across the mountains of
western North Carolina and Georgia, may support additional
thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. However, it appears
that this will be mostly modest to weak in intensity, with generally
negligible risk for severe weather.

..Kerr.. 09/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291711
SWODY2
SPC AC 291710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms appear unlikely on Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A deep upper low will exist off the coast of British Columbia, with
a large area of cyclonic flow aloft encompassing much of the western
states. Cooling aloft with a leading wave as well as daytime heating
will lead to scattered thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin
into MT, but with relatively weak instability.

To the east, an upper ridge will exist from the MS Valley into the
upper Great Lakes, with an upper trough from New England into the
Maritimes. Midlevel moisture over the Southeast as well cool
temperatures aloft could yield isolated thunderstorms over the
southern Appalachians during the afternoon, while daytime heating
and coastal convergence within a moist air mass support a few cells
developing over eastern/southeastern coasts of the FL Peninsula.

Elsewhere, a surface trough will develop over the northern High
Plains, with instability developing from northern MN into ND.
Thunderstorms chances are generally low in these areas due to weak
ascent, but a storm or two cannot be ruled out near peak heating.

..Jewell.. 09/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300443
SWODY2
SPC AC 300442

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible Wednesday
through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
Beneath a confluent mid-level regime, in the wake of a short wave
trough digging off the north Atlantic coast, it still appears that
the center of an expansive cool surface ridge will shift southeast
of the southern Hudson/James Bay vicinity through much of the
Northeast and Mid Atlantic by late Wednesday night. The weaker
southwestern flank of this ridge may be maintained as far south and
west as the northern Gulf Basin and southern Great Plains, with the
frontal zone on the leading edge of the cooler air stalling across
or just south of the southern Florida Peninsula, while advancing
further offshore of the remainder of the Atlantic Seaboard, in the
wake of east-northeastward accelerating Humberto and Imelda.

Upstream flow westward into the northern mid-latitude Pacific may
continue to trend a bit more zonal through at least this period.
Within this regime, an initially deep, occluded surface cyclone
offshore of the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast is
forecast to undergo rapid weakening near Vancouver Island. However,
mid-level troughing, with a couple of notable embedded
perturbations, is forecast to gradually progress into/across the
Pacific coast by 12Z Thursday.

...Northwest...
As a modest residual mid-level cold pool migrates inland off the
northeastern Pacific, it may contribute to sufficient boundary-layer destabilization for scattered weak thunderstorm activity west of the
Cascades, and perhaps farther inland across parts of the northern
intermountain region, Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Great Plains...
Models indicate sufficiently steep lapse rates and
boundary-layer/mid-level moisture to support weak to moderate
potential instability focused near modest surface troughing across
the northern into central Great Plains. As stronger mid/upper
support for ascent generally shifts north of the international
border early in the period, weak lift and warm mid-level
temperatures may inhibit thunderstorm development rooted within a
narrow corridor of boundary-layer instability forecast across the
eastern Dakotas by late afternoon.

Potential for convection rooted within moistening layers aloft
remains more unclear, and latest guidance suggests that isolated
convection capable of producing lightning might be possible across a
sizable portion of the northern and central Great Plains. However,
it still appears probable that this will be rather sparse in
coverage, with less than 10 percent thunderstorm probabilities
maintained. One exception may be across the Red River/northwestern
Minnesota vicinity, where a clustering of weak thunderstorms appears
possible supported by lift associated with low-level warm advection, particularly early in the period.

...Florida Peninsula...
Low-level convergence aided by moist post-frontal northeasterly to
easterly low-level flow may support isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development near the Atlantic coast during the day.
Additional development inland across the peninsula Wednesday night
is more unclear, but could be aided by mid-level cooling associated
with a weak approaching mid-level trough.

..Kerr.. 09/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301707
SWODY2
SPC AC 301706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible on Wednesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough will remain over the northwestern states on
Wednesday as an upper low slowly fills off the coast of British
Columbia. Cool temperatures aloft combined with daytime heating may
yield isolated weak thunderstorms across coastal WA and perhaps over
northern ID and vicinity.

To the east, southwest flow aloft and a lead wave will affect the
northern Plains, where a surface trough and wind shift will develop.
Weak instability, some elevated, combined with a developing
southerly low-level jet may support isolated thunderstorms late
afternoon through evening, with little if any severe potential.

Elsewhere, an area of cooler air aloft will move from the Gulf
eastward across FL late Wednesday night, which when combined with
increasing shoreline convergence along the eastern shores of the FL
Peninsula could yield a few thunderstorms as a harsh midlevel
subsidence inversion is gradually reduced. For the daytime period,
little if any lightning is anticipated due to the inversion, though
shallow convective showers will still be possible.

..Jewell.. 09/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010435
SWODY2
SPC AC 010433

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
It appears that stronger, more zonal and progressive mid/upper flow
will become increasingly confined to the higher latitudes during
this period, while a branch of westerlies across the mid-latitude
Pacific into the western U.S. trends more amplified. Near the
leading edge of the lower latitude regime, this is forecast to
include a notable short wave trough digging inland across the
northern/central California coast vicinity late Thursday through
Thursday night. In advance of this perturbation, models indicate
that mid-level ridging will build north-northeast of a subtropical
high centered over the Mexican Plateau, and within the mid-latitude
westerlies across the Great Plains.

Downstream, it appears that ridging in the mid-latitude westerlies
will broaden eastward offshore of the northern and middle Atlantic
coast, while broad, weak troughing in the subtropical latitudes digs
a bit further, south-southwestward through the Gulf Basin. Beneath
this regime, though slowly weakening while becoming centered near or
just offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast, a surface ridge
may continue to encompass an expansive area from the Gulf coast and
southern Great Plains through the northwestern Atlantic.

...Great Basin into northern Rockies...
A corridor of scattered thunderstorm development still appears
possible, mostly near a frontal zone across parts of southwestern
Montana through north central Nevada, after 03/00Z Thursday evening
into Thursday night. This is expected to be aided by forcing for
ascent downstream of the inland digging short wave trough, in the
presence of strengthening deep layer shear becoming conditionally
supportive of organized convective development. However, due to
thermodynamic profiles supportive of only rather weak CAPE, and
characterized by a stabilizing boundary due to the onset of diurnal
cooling, the risk for severe weather still appears negligible.

...Southern Florida Peninsula...
Scattered thunderstorm development appears likely within moist east-northeasterly post-frontal low-level flow, with thunderstorm
probabilities perhaps highest where low-level convergence becomes
focused across southeast coastal areas, in the presence of weak to
moderate CAPE. An isolated strong wind gust may not be entirely out
of the question, aided by heavy precipitation loading, but generally
weak low/mid-level flow and shear still seem likely to minimize the
risk for severe weather through this period.

..Kerr.. 10/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011641
SWODY2
SPC AC 011640

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Thursday).

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the western U.S. as upper
ridging persists east of the Rockies tomorrow (Thursday). With
surface high pressure and associated statically stable conditions
prevailing over the Rockies, and from the MS River to the East
Coast, thunderstorm potential will remain quite low over most
locales. A few lightning flashes may be observed from the southern
Sierra to the northern Rockies, as deep-layer ascent from the
aforementioned mid-level trough will lift a marginally buoyant
airmass. A pocket of colder temperatures aloft will also overspread
the Washington coastline, with a couple of lightning flashes
possible given scant buoyancy. A few thunderstorms may develop
across the Upper MS Valley in association with a passing mid-level
impulse. Lastly, modest low-level moisture will pivot around the
eastern U.S. surface high over the FL Peninsula into the Mid-MS
Valley, which may promote a couple of thunderstorms.

..Squitieri.. 10/01/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 020449
SWODY2
SPC AC 020447

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND
ADJACENT NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the northern
intermountain region into northern Rockies, accompanied by at least
some risk for severe wind and hail late Friday afternoon and
evening.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that generally weaker, but more
amplified, flow will prevail across the southern mid-latitudes of
the eastern Pacific into western Atlantic through this period, with
a stronger somewhat more progressive regime across the northern
mid-latitudes. Within this regime, large-scale mid-level ridging
offshore of the North American Pacific coast may continue to build
through much of the eastern Pacific, where both streams may become
largely in phase. Downstream, while mid-level troughing, with a
couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations, may progress across
the Canadian Rockies into the Canadian Prairies, another notable
short wave trough is forecast to continue to digging across the
Sierra Nevada into the Great Basin Friday through Friday night.

Farther east, broad southern mid-latitude mid-level ridging may
slowly shift eastward across the Ohio Valley through Mid Atlantic
vicinity, while in lower latitudes weak mid/upper troughing lingers
across the Gulf Basin into southwestern Atlantic.

Beneath this regime, it appears that surface ridging will be
maintained, but continue to slowly weaken, from the Gulf Coast and
southern Great Plains into the mid-latitude western Atlantic. While
surface troughing may modestly deepen across the northern Great
Plains into the lee of the Front Range, a substantive return flow of
low-level moisture emanating from the Gulf Basin will continue to be
impeded. Even so, some continuing gradual increase in surface dew
points appears possible along and southeast of the surface
troughing, which may contribute to modest diurnal boundary-layer destabilization beneath a north-northeastward advecting plume of
warm and capping elevated-mixed layer air.

...Eastern Great Basin and adjacent northern Rockies...
Mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent, downstream of the fairly
vigorous short wave trough, are likely to contribute to at least
weak boundary-layer destabilization in a corridor ahead of an
associated surface cold front by late Friday afternoon. It appears
that this will coincide with strengthening of southwesterly
mid-level flow (including to 50-60+ kt around 500 mb), which will
contribute to strong shear supportive of organized convective
development. This may include a few supercell structures posing a
risk for severe wind and hail, particularly near the exit region of
the mid-level jet spreading across parts of southeastern Idaho into southwestern Montana and western Wyoming. Farther south, across
parts of eastern Utah into western Colorado, thermodynamic profiles,
including a warmer and more deeply mixed boundary-layer, may be more
conducive to primarily a severe wind threat into early Friday
evening.

..Kerr.. 10/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021647
SWODY2
SPC AC 021645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Thu Oct 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a couple instances of hail may
occur across the northern Rockies into the Four Corners tomorrow
(Friday).

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West
while upper ridging persists east of the Rockies tomorrow (Friday).
The approach of the upper trough will encourage surface low
development over the northern Plains, with appreciable low-level
moisture return expected across the Plains and MS Valley. Given
limited forcing for ascent east of the Rockies, thunderstorm
development should be limited to the warm front over the Upper MS
Valley, and along the Gulf Coast with low-level moisture pivoting
around a surface high along the East Coast. West of the Rockies
though, where upper support is present, cooler temperatures aloft
will promote enough buoyancy to support scattered thunderstorm
development. Given stronger flow aloft and associated vertical wind
shear, some storms could become strong and sustained.

...Portions of the Northern Rockies to the Four Corners...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop by afternoon ahead of the upper
trough, once a well-mixed boundary layer, extending over 600 mb,
becomes established. Temperatures will warm into the 70s F, beneath
7-8 C/km lapse rates, resulting in a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. This
buoyancy will be constrained to thin profiles, which may limit the
severe threat to some degree. Nonetheless, a 50-70 kt 500 mb jet
streak will impinge on the Northern Rockies to Four Corners regions,
resulting in elongated and modestly curved hodographs. High-based,
fast-moving multicells are the expected mode of convection, with
strong wind gusts likely. A few severe gusts may occur, along with
an instance or two of hail, warranting Category 1/Marginal risk
probabilities across the northern Rockies to the Four Corners.

..Squitieri.. 10/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030544
SWODY2
SPC AC 030543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor across parts of the
central and northern Great Plains late Saturday afternoon into the
nighttime hours. Some risk for severe wind and hail will accompany
this activity.

...Central High Plains to Northwest MN...

A shortwave upper trough over the Great Basin will lift northeast to
the northern Plains on Saturday. A belt of moderate southwesterly
mid/upper flow will overspread the central Rockies to the Upper
Midwest as this occurs. At the surface, troughing is forecast across
the High Plains, with an elongated area of low pressure stretching
from SD into northern MN during much of the period. The surface low
will deepen over the northern Plains late in the period as the upper
shortwave trough ejects northeast. Modest boundary layer moisture
(mid 50s to low 60s F) will be in place to the east of the surface
trough across the central Plains, and ahead of a surface cold front
extending from the SD surface low into eastern ND/northern MN.

Capping will likely preclude diurnal convection across the warm
sector. However, cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates may
support thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of CO/WY
by mid/late afternoon. These storms may then become better organized
as they move into NE/SD by evening as they interact with the surface
cold front within a modestly unstable airmass. Convection will
likely remain elevated/just to the cool side of the surface front
and maintain a linear mode given deep shear parallel to the surface
boundary. Isolated strong to severe storms may produce strong gusts
with this activity as convection develops east/northeast along the
surface boundary during the evening/overnight. If any elevated
convection can maintain a cellular mode, isolated hail also could
occur.

..Leitman.. 10/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031652
SWODY2
SPC AC 031650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts/hail may accompany the stronger
thunderstorms across the central Rockies into the northern High
Plains tomorrow (Saturday).

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will take place across the western and central
U.S., while upper riding perseveres over the eastern CONUS tomorrow
(Saturday). A pronounced embedded mid-level impulse will eject into
the northern Plains, supporting the deepening of a surface low over
SD by afternoon, with a second surface low likely developing over
western WY. Low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of the SD
surface low as a cold front approaches from the central/northern
High Plains. An unstable but capped airmass will characterize the
warm sector, with thunderstorm development most likely along and
behind the cold front by tomorrow evening. Given adequate vertical
wind shear, a few of these storms may be severe across the central
Rockies into the northern Plains.

...Central Rockies into the central High Plains...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop by afternoon in association
with the western (WY) surface low, atop a mixed boundary layer.
Instability will be marginal over the central Rockies toward the
central High Plains (e.g. less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). However,
rapidly strengthening winds with height will support strong speed
shear. As such, multicells with an isolated severe wind/hail threat
will exist across the central Rockies into the central High Plains
during the afternoon hours.

...Northern High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, ahead of the cold front, surface
temperatures will likely reach into the upper 80s F, amid low 60s F
dewpoints across the northern Plains. Across the warm sector,
1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is expected, with the higher values of MLCAPE
constrained to the eastern Dakotas and MN, where richer low-level
moisture will be. Deep-layer forcing for ascent, needed to support
thunderstorm development against appreciable MLCINH, will be
displaced to the west, closer to and behind the surface cold front.
As forcing gradually overspreads the northern Plains/cold front
during the evening, thunderstorms should develop along/immediately
behind the cold front. Given strong speed shear parallel to the
front, the stronger linear segments will be capable of isolated
severe gusts and perhaps an instance of hail Saturday evening and
overnight.

..Squitieri.. 10/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040516
SWODY2
SPC AC 040515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the
central Plains on Sunday.

...Plains to the Upper Midwest...

A series of upper shortwave troughs will move across the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest on Sunday. The first shortwave trough will
lift northeast from ND/MN into Ontario early in the day. Lingering
showers and thunderstorms beneath the core of this feature are
possible across parts of eastern ND into northern MN during the
morning hours.

During the afternoon/evening, a second upper shortwave trough will
develop southeast from the Canadian Prairies into the northern
Plains. This will support a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly
flow from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest. This belt
of stronger flow will overlap a surface cold front developing
southeast across the central Plains and Upper MS Valley during the
late afternoon into the overnight hours. Modestly southerly
low-level flow will maintain mid 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints
ahead of the surface front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will
foster modest destabilization, with MLCAPE generally in the 500-1000
J/kg range, particularly across parts of KS into eastern NE,
weakening with northeast extent. Midlevel temperatures will be warm,
resulting in capping until late afternoon/evening when forcing along
the front will increase. Isolated storms are expected to develop
across parts of KS into eastern NE toward 00z. Supercell wind
profiles will be present with 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes
indicated in forecast soundings. However, deep shear parallel to the
front may result in convection becoming undercut/moving to the cool
side of the boundary with time. Nevertheless, a narrow corridor for
isolated strong to severe storms is expected to develop for a few
hours during the evening, mainly across KS into southeast NE. A few
strong gusts and some hail will be possible with the strongest
storms.

Limited instability and a relatively narrow temporal/spatial
corridor for severe potential precludes higher probabilities. The
Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) is maintained, but shifted some to
better align with current forecast position of the surface front.

..Leitman.. 10/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041725
SWODY2
SPC AC 041723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEAST NE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the
central Plains on Sunday, mainly during the late afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...
An initially vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast
to gradually weaken as it moves quickly northeastward from the
Dakotas into northern Ontario through the period. A relatively deep
surface low will move northeastward in conjunction with this system,
as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the central Plains
into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

...KS/southeast NE into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
It appears that the Dakotas shortwave trough will eject too early
and too far north to have more than a glancing influence on late afternoon/evening storm development, though a strong storm or two
cannot be ruled out in the morning with this system. In the wake of
the ejecting shortwave, moderate to strong low/midlevel flow will
remain in place along the frontal corridor. Low-level moisture will
be modest at best (with dewpoints generally in the 50s to low 60s
F), but relatively strong heating will result in MLCAPE increasing
to 500-1000 J/kg (generally greater with southwest extent) by late afternoon/early evening.

Diurnal storm development may remain relatively isolated, given the
absence of stronger large-scale ascent in the wake of the ejecting
shortwave. Convection is expected to increase in coverage through
the evening near and just behind the front, aided by a southwesterly
low-level jet. The greatest relative severe potential still appears
to reside from west-central KS into southeast NE, where instability
may be sufficient for at least transient storm organization in the
presence of sufficient deep-layer shear. Localized severe gusts and
possibly some hail could accompany the strongest storms. The
Marginal Risk has been maintained across the region because of this
potential, with only minor adjustments.

Farther northeast, relatively strong low/midlevel flow and
prefrontal heating/mixing will be favorable for gusty-wind potential
into parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. However, with weak
buoyancy and a tendency for the bulk of convection to be relatively
late, damaging-wind potential remains too uncertain for
probabilities at this time.

..Dean.. 10/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050535
SWODY2
SPC AC 050533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for organized severe storms currently appears low on
Monday.

...Synopsis...

A midlevel trough will migrate east over the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes vicinity. Any strong southwesterly mid/upper flow associated
with this system will generally lag behind a surface cold front
extending from Lower MI southwestward into central KS at midday. The
front will slowly develop southeast through the period, becoming
oriented from southern Lower MI into the southern High Plains. While
a mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will be in place ahead of the
front, destabilization will be limited by poor lapse rates, cloud
cover and areas of ongoing convection. While some thunderstorm
development is possible along the front during the afternoon, this
activity will likely remain to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel deep layer flow and limited large-scale
ascent/surface cyclogenesis.

Additional thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest
to the South in east/southeasterly return flow/warm advection regime
on the western periphery of the subtropical high centered near FL.
Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 10/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051703
SWODY2
SPC AC 051701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The threat of severe storms appears low on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An expansive upper-level cyclone will move eastward across Canada on
Monday, with the southern periphery of the stronger winds aloft from
the far northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes. South of this
feature, a weakening positive-tilt wave will extend into the Great
basin, with a belt of moderate southwesterlies aloft from CO into
the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes.

At the surface, high pressure will be entrenched across the northern
Rockies and Plains, with another strong high affecting much of the
eastern states. In between these anticyclones, a relative surface
trough and wind shift will extend roughly from northern Lower MI
southwestward into KS and toward the TX Panhandle at midday, making
minimal eastward progress through Tuesday morning.

...From the southern High Plains into Lower MI...
Along the length of the boundary, surface heating along with
dewpoints mostly in the 60s F will lead to a marginally unstable
environment with SBCAPE averaging 500 to 1000 J/kg, with similar
elevated MUCAPE values on the cool side of the boundary. Effective
deep-layer shear will generally be at or below 30 kt, with
boundary-parallel flow.

A few strong storms may develop during the afternoon from northeast
NM in to northwest OK where heating will be strong. However, warm
profiles aloft suggest minimal hail potential. A few stronger cells
with strong gusts may also occur from northern IL into Lower MI, but
meager CAPE profiles suggest minimal severe risk.

..Jewell.. 10/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060512
SWODY2
SPC AC 060510

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for Tuesday.
However, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across the Ohio
Valley and the southern Rockies.

...Southern Rockies to the OH Valley...

An upper trough extending from Hudson Bay toward the Upper Midwest
will shift east on Tuesday, crossing the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. At the surface, a cold front will extend from southern Lower
MI toward central TX during the morning. The front is expected to
develop east/southeast through the period, positioned from New
England toward the Deep South and South TX.

A rather moist airmass for this time of year will be in place ahead
of the front, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F common
from central TX into the Lower OH/TN Valleys. This will aid in
pockets of modest destabilization (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE). However,
stronger destabilization will be limited due to poor lapse rates,
cloud cover, and areas of ongoing showers/thunderstorms at the
beginning of the period. While effective shear magnitudes up to 30
kt are expected, deep layer flow parallel to the surface boundary
will favor line segments. Where stronger destabilization can occur, particularly near the Lower OH Valley vicinity, isolated gusty winds
could accompany any stronger cells/line segments.

Additional storms are expected in a post-frontal regime across NM
into the OK/TX Panhandle vicinity. Deep-layer flow will be weaker
here, and lapse rates/instability will remain modest, limiting
severe potential. Nevertheless, gusty winds and perhaps small hail
could accompany the stronger cells, but severe potential appears
low.

..Leitman.. 10/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061728
SWODY2
SPC AC 061727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to marginally severe storms may produce hail over
western New Mexico Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, general
thunderstorms are probable from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys into
the Lower Great Lakes region.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will sweep eastward across the Great Lakes and into
the Northeast, with the southern periphery of the stronger flow
aloft from the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. To the west, upper
ridging will develop into the Plains, with relatively cool midlevel temperatures with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as Interstate 40.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist across the
Plains, behind a cold front that will extend from the Lower Great
Lakes into the Lower MS Valley during the day. Weak instability is
forecast ahead of this front, with scattered thunderstorms from the
Lower Great Lakes into the OH/TN Valleys. Given the affects of early
day clouds/rain, the severe risk should remain limited despite
marginal deep-layer shear around 35 kt.

Farther west, isolated severe cells capable of hail will be possible
during the afternoon, where southeast winds will maintain a moist
air mass westward into NM, beneath cool temperatures aloft.

...Central and western NM...
Scattered thunderstorms appear likely over much of western NM during
afternoon, with strong heating combined with low to midlevel
moisture, resulting in MLCAPE perhaps as high as 1000 J/kg. Veering
winds with height, and elongated hodographs in the mid to high
levels may help support cellular storm mode with a few producing
hail over 1.00" diameter. As such, have introduced low hail
probabilities for Tuesday afternoon.

..Jewell.. 10/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070515
SWODY2
SPC AC 070513

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

An amplified upper ridge will remain centered on the Plains on
Wednesday. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic will continue to lift northeast, moving offshore the
Atlantic coast by the end of the period. A surface cold front will
be oriented from coastal New England toward the southern
Appalachians and the central Gulf Coast Wednesday morning. As the
front continues to develop offshore into the Atlantic and Gulf,
strong high pressure will build over the Great Lakes/Midwest.
Easterly low-level flow will transport modest moisture westward
across the Rio Grade and into portions of NM/AZ on the western
periphery of the strengthening surface high.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of AZ/NM
where modest boundary layer moisture beneath midlevel lapse rates
near 7 C/km supports weak destabilization. Vertical shear will be
weak, and convection will be relatively shallow, given high bases
and low tops. While some locally gusty winds could occur, severe
potential is low. Additional thunderstorms are possible across parts
of the Southeast into the southern Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front.
Instability will be limited by poor lapse rates and cloud cover.
Vertical shear will also weaken through the day as the upper trough
continues to lift further from these regions. Severe thunderstorms
are not expected.

..Leitman.. 10/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030653
SWODY2
SPC AC 030651

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
Across much of the nation on Tuesday, west-northwesterly mid-level
flow will be in place over the top of a cold and dry airmass. For
this reason, thunderstorms are not forecast to develop in the
continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 11/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031707
SWODY2
SPC AC 031705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated lightning flashes may occur with low-topped thunderstorms
approaching parts of coastal southwest Oregon and northern
California late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Dry and/or stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential
across a large majority of the CONUS on Tuesday. One exception may
exist for parts of coastal southwest OR and northern CA late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning. A highly amplified upper trough
will approach the West Coast late in the period, with pronounced
large-scale ascent overspreading the eastern Pacific and immediate
coast of OR/northern CA by 09-12Z Wednesday. With cooling mid-level temperatures, weak but sufficient MUCAPE may exist to support
isolated lightning flashes with low-topped thunderstorms moving
onshore. Given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow,
gusty winds may occur with this activity. However, the meager
forecast instability should limit the threat for organized severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason.. 11/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100512
SWODY2
SPC AC 100510

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry or stable for lightning-producing
convection across the CONUS through the period. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are possible offshore of the coastal
Mid-Atlantic States and NC, as the mid-level cold core of the
departing eastern trough overspreads the northern periphery of the
Gulf Stream.

..Grams.. 11/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101647
SWODY2
SPC AC 101645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
A seasonably cold, dry boundary-layer air mass has spread as far
south and east as much of the northwestern Gulf Basin and middle
through southern Atlantic Seaboard, with cyclogenesis underway near
the northern Mid Atlantic coast and forecast to proceed
north-northeastward across portions of New England into the lower
St. Lawrence Valley later today through tonight. By 12Z Tuesday,
the occluding center of the cyclone is forecast to reach
southeastern Quebec, before drifting northward and weakening as
secondary cyclogenesis takes place across the Canadian Maritimes, in
response to a vigorous short wave impulse accelerating northeastward near/offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard.

While models indicate that large-scale mid/upper troughing will lose
amplitude across the eastern U.S. in the wake of this feature, a
digging upstream perturbation is forecast to maintain broadly
cyclonic northwesterly mid/upper flow across the Great Lakes, and
upper Mississippi through Ohio Valleys, downstream of building
ridging inland of the Pacific coast through the Rockies and adjacent
Great Plains. Beneath this regime, down slope flow and warm
advection across much of the Great Plains, and continuing advection
across and east of the Mississippi Valley, will likely contribute to significant boundary-layer modification. However, with only slow
weakening of lingering surface ridging across the Gulf Basin and
Florida Peninsula, little appreciable inland moisture return is
anticipated. Generally stable conditions are likely to be
maintained across much of the U.S., with little risk for
thunderstorms.

...Lee of lower Great Lakes...
Beneath the cold, cyclonic flow across the lower Great Lakes region,
both the NAM and Rapid Refresh suggest that a plume of relatively
stronger boundary-layer destabilization and deeper convective
development is possible across and east-southeast of the eastern
shores of Lake Erie late tonight through Tuesday afternoon. While
equilibrium levels appear rather low, it is not entirely clear from
forecast soundings that the development of charge separation is not
possible. However, the potential for convection becoming more than
briefly capable of producing a lightning strike or two still appears
too low and/or isolated to introduce 10 percent or greater
thunderstorm probabilities.

..Kerr.. 11/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110552
SWODY2
SPC AC 110550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
Stable and/or dry conditions will preclude lightning-producing
convection across nearly the entire CONUS. One exception is along
the West Coast from the Bay Area to southwest OR on Wednesday night
into early morning Thursday. A broad upper trough will move east
across the northeast Pacific. Within the low-level warm conveyor
ahead of it, a swath of low-topped convection should reach the coast
between 08-12Z Thursday. Scant elevated buoyancy may develop amid
the onshore flow regime and support an isolated thunderstorm risk.

..Grams.. 11/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130556
SWODY2
SPC AC 130555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR WEST TEXAS...NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday across parts of far west Texas and New Mexico
from mid afternoon into the early evening. An isolated tornado and
wind-damage threat will be possible around midday Tuesday along the
coast in southern California.

...Far West Texas/New Mexico...
At mid-levels, a ridge will remain over the central U.S. on Tuesday,
as a low moves eastward across central California. Southwesterly
flow will be in place from the Desert Southwest into the southern
and central Rockies. Along the southeastern periphery of the
stronger flow, an axis of instability will be in place by Tuesday
afternoon from far west Texas northward into central and
northeastern New Mexico. As surface temperatures warm during the day
near the instability axis, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
form in the higher terrain and spread northeastward into the lower
elevations. Near the instability axis, MLCAPE is forecast to peak in
the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. The instability combined with moderate
deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be enough
for a marginal severe threat from mid afternoon into early evening.
Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.

...Southern California Coast...
A mid-level low will move across central California on Tuesday, as
an associated trough moves inland across southern California.
Thunderstorm development will likely take place near the trough,
along a focused band of large-scale ascent. The storms will form
near the axis of 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet, which will contribute
to strong deep-layer shear. Forecast soundings along the coast from
Los Angeles to San Diego around midday on Tuesday have 0-6 km shear
near 80 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 150 to 250
m2/s2 range. This could be enough for a marginal tornado and
wind-damage threat, mainly with low-topped rotating storms that move
inland.

..Broyles.. 10/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131710
SWODY2
SPC AC 131708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NEW MEXICO...AND COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday across parts New Mexico from late afternoon into
the evening. An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat will be
possible Tuesday morning through midday along the coast in southern
California.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper low will fill as it moves from central CA into NV on
Tuesday. A midlevel speed max will move into southern CA early in
the day, nosing northeastward into southern UT into Wednesday. Cold temperatures aloft will exist on the north side of the jet, which
will favor scattered daytime convection due to heating.

Ahead of this system, and west of a southern Plains ridge, southerly
winds will maintain a plume of moisture across much of NM and into
CO. As this area will be well east of the upper low, temperatures
aloft will remain relatively warm.

...Coastal Southern CA...
A band of rain and thunderstorms is likely to be ongoing Tuesday
morning along a cold front, extending well offshore. This arcing
line of convection will be supported by very cold temperatures aloft
north of the midlevel speed max, with SBCAPE values of a couple
hundred J/kg. Although low-topped, sufficient buoyancy in the
low-levels combined with veering winds with height and organization
along a boundary may result in isolated severe weather, with
damaging gusts and perhaps a brief/weak tornado. This convection
will likely be strongest from morning to midday, eventually
weakening across southern parts of the Marginal Risk area as that
portion of the front interacts with warmer temperatures aloft.

...NM...
Instability will gradually increase through late afternoon within
the theta-e plume with persistent southerly flow. It appears the
primary risk will occur late in the day/evening, as full
destabilization is persisted into the night due to the established
moist plume. Subtle height falls may occur late, and several CAMs
suggest nocturnal development with storms racing northward across
central portions of NM. Given robust shear profiles, a few storms
could contain marginal hail or gusty winds.

..Jewell.. 10/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191712
SWODY2
SPC AC 191711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will lift northeast across New England on Monday. At
the same time, a surface low will develop east across Quebec with a
trailing surface front moving across New England. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday morning along the front
within a warm advection regime. Southeasterly low-level flow will
support a narrow warm sector across the region, though instability
will remain muted given poor lapse rates. Still, strong mid/upper
flow could foster gusty winds as the front moves across New England
through early afternoon, though severe potential will remain low.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible further south across FL
where the southern extent of the New England surface front will arc southwestward across the FL Peninsula. A moist boundary layer and
modest instability may support isolated thunderstorms during peak
heating, but weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates will preclude
severe thunderstorm potential.

Further west, another upper trough will move across the Plains to
the MS Valley. In tandem with the upper system, a surface front will
sweep across the Plains into the Midwest. Given a prior cold front
passage, the airmass will remain dry and thunderstorm activity along
the front will be limited. Cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient
for a lightning flash or two across the Upper Midwest or Great Lakes
vicinity, but overall coverage is expected to be less than 10
percent.

..Leitman.. 10/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200551
SWODY2
SPC AC 200549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Great Lakes, South
Florida, and the northwest Gulf Coast regions Tuesday. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong upper low initially over the Midwest will continue to
intensify as it moves eastward across the Great Lakes and into the
Northeast Tuesday. As the upper low deepens, so too will a surface
low over the Great Lakes. Residual surface moisture and cool
mid-level temperatures beneath the upper low will likely support
some weak buoyancy as lapse rates steepen through the day. With
strong lift overspreading the weakly unstable air mass, isolated
low-topped thunderstorms are possible across the Great Lakes and
upper OH Valley Tuesday afternoon.

Trailing the surface low, a cold front will sweep southeastward with strengthening surface high pressure behind it over the central US.
Offshore winds will limit available moisture and buoyancy for much
of the country. The exception will be across portions of the
Northwest Gulf Coast and southern FL. Here, rich low-level moisture
will allow for moderate diurnal destabilization. Still, weak forcing
displaced to the north suggests only isolated thunderstorm coverage.
Weak vertical shear and warm mid-level temperatures should limit
severe potential.

..Lyons.. 10/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040630
SWODY2
SPC AC 040628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Tue Nov 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST
OR/NORTHWEST CA AND THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday morning and
afternoon in western Oregon and far northwest California. Damaging
winds from showers and very isolated low-topped thunderstorms are
possible during the late afternoon to evening in the Northeast.

...Western OR and northwest CA...
A large-scale upper trough will advance inland across the Northwest
on Wednesday. Cool mid-level temperatures and ample large-scale
ascent associated with the upper trough will support weak buoyancy
sufficient for sporadic low-topped thunderstorms. Morning severe
potential should be confined to along the OR to far northern CA
coast, before expanding into the Willamette Valley by afternoon.
Strong deep-layer shear and enlarged hodographs early may yield a
few low-end supercells. These will be capable of producing a brief
tornado, localized severe gusts, and small to marginally severe
hail. Gradually subsiding hodograph curvature through the day and
lower surface dew points inland should yield diminishing convective
intensity towards sunset and along/east of the Cascades.

...Northeast...
Favorable peak heating timing of a vigorously amplifying shortwave
trough and attendant surface cyclogenesis may support a damaging
wind threat with mainly non-lightning producing showers from the
Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. Immediately along the
sharpening cold front, steepened lapse rates may foster downward
momentum transport of low-level westerlies, that should strengthen
to 50-60 kts. Surface-based buoyancy should be scant at most, likely
yielding only sporadic/very isolated thunderstorms amid predominant
showers. But given the degree of shear and intensifying large-scale
ascent, fast-moving low-topped convection could loosely organize
along the front from late afternoon into evening. Despite the
likelihood of substantial thermodynamic limitations, this setup
warrants a low-probability convective damaging wind highlight.

..Grams.. 11/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041712
SWODY2
SPC AC 041711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CST Tue Nov 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS N WEST
OR/NORTHWEST CA AND THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday morning and
afternoon in western Oregon and far northwest California. Damaging
winds from showers and very isolated low-topped thunderstorms are
possible during the afternoon to evening in the Northeast.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level trough will overspread the Northwest on
Wednesday with ridging building over the Rockies/Plains. A
positively tilted trough will amplify across southeast Canada and
the Great Lakes with a very strong mid-level jet strengthening from
the southern Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic during the
afternoon/evening. This will result in a rapidly strengthening
surface low during the day which moves from the northern Great Lakes
to the Maine coast.

...Pacific Northwest into northwest California...
Cool mid-level temperatures and relatively warm waters off the
Pacific Northwest coast will result in weak instability ahead of a
cold front as it approaches the coast on Wednesday morning. Some
stronger storms may result in an isolated severe wind gust with the
frontal passage. However, greater instability is forecast in the
wake of this cold front as temperatures aloft continue to cool.
Lower tropospheric flow will remain strong (50 knots at 1km) in the
wake of the cold front, and an additional mid-level trough will
likely be a focus for a second round of storms during the afternoon.
This round will likely have the greatest threat for marginally large
hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado threat, due
to the greater instability and potential for low-topped supercells.
This threat may also persist inland during the afternoon as some
weak heating results in slightly greater instability during the
afternoon.

...Eastern Great Lakes to parts of New England...
As a surface low strengthens across the eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday morning, a cold front will also sharpen and become the
focus for convection by early afternoon. Limited moisture will
result in weak to negligible instability and lightning will likely
remain isolated. Nonetheless, very strong winds (greater than 50
knots at 1km) could easily mix to the surface and result in some
damaging wind threat with a loosely organized line of convection
along the cold front during the afternoon.

..Bentley.. 11/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041718
SWODY2
SPC AC 041716

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Tue Nov 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST
OR/NORTHWEST CA AND THE NORTHEAST...

CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday morning and
afternoon in western Oregon and far northwest California. Damaging
winds from showers and very isolated low-topped thunderstorms are
possible during the afternoon to evening in the Northeast.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level trough will overspread the Northwest on
Wednesday with ridging building over the Rockies/Plains. A
positively tilted trough will amplify across southeast Canada and
the Great Lakes with a very strong mid-level jet strengthening from
the southern Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic during the
afternoon/evening. This will result in a rapidly strengthening
surface low during the day which moves from the northern Great Lakes
to the Maine coast.

...Pacific Northwest into northwest California...
Cool mid-level temperatures and relatively warm waters off the
Pacific Northwest coast will result in weak instability ahead of a
cold front as it approaches the coast on Wednesday morning. Some
stronger storms may result in an isolated severe wind gust with the
frontal passage. However, greater instability is forecast in the
wake of this cold front as temperatures aloft continue to cool.
Lower tropospheric flow will remain strong (50 knots at 1km) in the
wake of the cold front, and an additional mid-level trough will
likely be a focus for a second round of storms during the afternoon.
This round will likely have the greatest threat for marginally large
hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado threat, due
to the greater instability and potential for low-topped supercells.
This threat may also persist inland during the afternoon as some
weak heating results in slightly greater instability during the
afternoon.

...Eastern Great Lakes to parts of New England...
As a surface low strengthens across the eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday morning, a cold front will also sharpen and become the
focus for convection by early afternoon. Limited moisture will
result in weak to negligible instability and lightning will likely
remain isolated. Nonetheless, very strong winds (greater than 50
knots at 1km) could easily mix to the surface and result in some
damaging wind threat with a loosely organized line of convection
along the cold front during the afternoon.

..Bentley.. 11/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171708
SWODY2
SPC AC 171706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the
Lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will move from the Midwest to
the Mid-Atlantic during the period on Tuesday. In its wake, ridging
will strengthen across the central CONUS ahead of a large trough
moving slowly east across southern California and into the
Southwest. A surface low and associated frontal features will begin
the period across the Ozarks and weaken through the day, becoming a
stalled, somewhat diffuse frontal zone near the Ohio River by 00Z.

...Lower Ohio Valley Region...
Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the
period across the Lower Ohio Valley within a region of strong
isentropic ascent on the nose of a 50 knot low-level jet. Small hail
and isolated large hail is possible with this morning activity.
Upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints will advect northward ahead of the
cold front in the wake of this morning activity. This may result in
a zone of surface or near surface based instability along the cold
front by early to mid afternoon. Moderate instability amid
steepening lapse rates and strong effective shear may result in a
few supercells capable of primarily large hail during the
afternoon/early evening. Where surface based instability is most
likely, some tornado threat will exist given favorable streamwise
vorticity in the lowest levels of the hodograph. Weak low-level
lapse rates should keep any tornado threat limited overall.

After 00Z, a cooling boundary layer and increasing heights aloft
from the west should bring an end to the severe weather threat
rather quickly. If afternoon thunderstorms grow upscale into an
eastward advancing line, some threat could persist into the evening
across central Kentucky, but even this threat should cease by
03-04Z.

..Bentley.. 11/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180615
SWODY2
SPC AC 180613

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the southern
Plains on Wednesday evening into early Thursday.

...Southern Plains...

Southerly low-level flow beneath an upper ridge centered over the
central U.S. will transport Gulf moisture northward across TX and
OK. To the west, an upper low/trough over southern CA and northern
Baja Wednesday morning will develop eastward through the period,
with the system forecast to be over AZ and northwest Mexico by
Thursday morning. Southwesterly deep-layer flow will increase across
the southern Plains as the western upper trough ejects eastward.

However, more substantial height falls are not expected across the
Plains until after 00z, with some guidance maintaining neutral
height tendencies until closer to 06z. Furthermore, warmer midlevel temperatures around 700 mb may maintain capping for much of the
diurnal period. Forecast soundings across multiple models show quite
a bit of spread with regards to surface-based evolution. While
large-scale ascent will likely remain muted until late in the
period, persistent warm advection and increasing vertical shear may
support isolated to scattered storm development near the stationary
surface boundary from west-central TX toward the Red River during
the evening into the overnight. Modest instability and shear may be
sufficient for isolated strong to severe storms, mainly capable of
producing hail.

...Southeast AZ/southwest NM...

Cooling aloft closer to the upper low/trough will support steep
midlevel lapse rates amid increasing midlevel moisture. This will
result in weak instability amid 40+ kt effective shear magnitudes. A
couple of stronger storms could produce small hail or gusty winds,
but overall severe potential appears limited at this time given a
relatively cool boundary-layer and weak buoyancy.

..Leitman.. 11/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140547
SWODY2
SPC AC 140546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the
southern Rockies, and over the central High Plains Wednesday evening
into the overnight. Hail will be the primary threat, but a few
marginally severe wind gusts may also occur.

...Central and Northern Plains...
On Wednesday at mid-levels, a ridge will move slowly eastward across
the central U.S., as a low moves east-northeastward across the
Intermountain West. Between these two features, strong southwesterly
flow will be in place, as a jet streak moves northeastward across
the Four Corners region. At the surface, a low will deepen across
northeastern Colorado, as a warm front advances northward across the
central High Plains. Along the front, surface dewpoints from 55 to
60 F will contribute to destabilization in the late afternoon and
early evening. A pocket of MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range is
forecast across much of western Nebraska and far southwest South
Dakota. As the exit region of the mid-level jet moves across the
central High Plains during the evening, large-scale ascent and
deep-layer shear will support scattered strong thunderstorm
development. A marginal severe threat appears likely with hail and a
few severe wind gusts possible. The threat could persist into the
overnight period across parts of western and central South Dakota.

...Southern Rockies...
A mid-level low will move east-northeastward across the
Intermountain West on Wednesday, as an associated 60 to 80 knot jet
streak translates northeastward through the Desert Southwest. Ahead
of the jet, an axis of instability is forecast to develop by
afternoon from west-central New Mexico into far southern Colorado.
As the core of the jet streak passes through the Four Corners region
during the late afternoon and early evening, large-scale ascent will
aid the development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms along and
near the instability axis. The instability along with moderate
deep-layer shear associated with the jet streak will likely support
a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and evening. Hail
and isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 10/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141717
SWODY2
SPC AC 141715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the
southern Rockies, and over the central High Plains Wednesday evening
into the overnight. Hail will be the primary threat, but a few
marginally severe wind gusts may also occur.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough over the West will slowly push east toward the
Rockies as an upper ridge moves from the Plains toward the MS
Valley. The upper low within this trough will weaken as it moves
across UT and into WY. The leading upper speed max will extend from
northern AZ into UT early Wednesday, and will affect parts of NM,
CO, and WY overnight.

At the surface, low pressure will develop during the afternoon from
central WY into northeast CO, and this low will move eastward into
the northern Plains overnight. A warm front will extend east near
the SD/NE border, and will surge north overnight as a 50 kt
low-level jet develops. Southerly winds south of this warm front
should bring 50s F dewpoints northward into the region, allowing for
marginal instability to develop.

To the south, a plume of low to midlevel moisture will remain from
NM into CO, with a minimal surface trough across western to central
NM supporting ascent beneath increasing southwest winds aloft.

...Central to northern High Plains...
Conditions will destabilize quickly during the afternoon as heating
occurs along with northwestward advection of 50s F dewpoints.
Indications are that storms will form within a narrow uncapped zone
from northeast CO into eastern WY. Strong deep-layer shear and
sufficient MUCAPE over 500 J/kg will favor hail production in the
strongest cells. At this time, it appears coverage of severe will be
isolated.

...NM...
Storms are most likely to develop over central to northern NM during
the afternoon, with peak heating and within a moist upslope flow
regime. Early day rain/thunderstorms may delay destabilization
somewhat, but at least isolated strong storms will be possible. Wind
profiles will be veering with height, and deep-layer effective shear
will be near 50 kt. As such, cellular storm mode is most likely,
with a few reports of hail over 1.00" possible.

..Jewell.. 10/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150534
SWODY2
SPC AC 150532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
possible on Thursday in the late afternoon across parts of the
central High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
A mid-level low will move into the northern High Plains on Thursday,
as southwest flow remains over much of the central U.S. At the
surface, a low will deepen ahead of a cold front moving
southeastward across eastern Colorado. As surface temperatures warm
ahead of the front, an axis of instability is forecast to develop
from eastern New Mexico into far eastern Colorado and far northwest
Kansas. By mid afternoon on Thursday, MLCAPE is expected to reach
near 1000 J/kg along this axis, with 850 to 500 mb lapse rates
peaking in the 7 to 8 C/km Range. In addition, 0-6 km shear is
forecast to around 50 knots. This should support a potential for
isolated large hail with relatively high-based rotating storms. The
threat is expected to diminish in the evening as the cold front
undercuts most of the convection.

..Broyles.. 10/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201641
SWODY2
SPC AC 201640

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Great Lakes, South
Florida, and the northwest Gulf Coast regions Tuesday. Organized
severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...MI/OH...
A deep and cold upper low will track across the Great Lakes region
on Tuesday, with the primary surface cold front sweeping eastward
across the upper OH Valley. Model guidance is in agreement of a
shortwave trough rotating around the base of the upper low Tuesday
afternoon. Daytime heating in the post-frontal air mass ahead of
this trough, combined with steep lapse rates and residual moisture
will lead to scattered low-topped, fast-moving showers and a few
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon across parts of southern Lower MI
and northern OH. Forecast soundings suggest minimal CAPE values of
100-200 J/kg. Nevertheless, strong winds aloft and favorable
low-level lapse rates may result in gusty or even damaging winds in
this activity. Will maintain sub-5% severe wind probabilities at
this time, but area will be re-evaluated in upcoming updates.

..Hart.. 10/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210549
SWODY2
SPC AC 210548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Wednesday.

...New England...
An upper low centered over the Great Lakes, with accompanying
cyclonic flow aloft, will remain the primary synoptic feature across
the eastern half of the CONUS Wednesday. Strong ascent and cool
mid-level temperatures east of a bent-back cold front over New
England will support scattered low-topped thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon. The strongest of these storms are expected to remain
offshore, though some may approach coastal New England and Down East
ME midday. While isolated gusty winds are possible given strong
mid-level flow, severe storms appear unlikely with very limited
buoyancy and poor low-level lapse rates further inland.

...Southwest...
Other scattered thunderstorms will be possible within a plume of
mid-level moisture ahead of the western trough moving onshore over
CA and into the Southwest late Wednesday into early Thursday. Ascent
will overspread the modestly moist air mass from eastern CA and
southern NV into parts of the Four Corners. With only weak buoyancy
likely to develop ahead of the upper trough, organized severe storms
appear unlikely, though a stray strong gust is possible.

..Elsewhere...
Subsidence in the wake of the Northeast US system will strengthen
surface high pressure behind a cold front moving southeastward
across the US. Dry and stable conditions are expected within the
post-frontal air mass across the central US, with little threat for thunderstorms. The exception being across far south FL, where
isolated storms are possible Wednesday afternoon along the coasts.

..Lyons.. 10/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280558
SWODY2
SPC AC 280556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to consolidate across the
eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded mid/upper cyclone moves
eastward across parts of the TN/OH Valleys. A surface low initially
near the AR/MO/TN border region is forecast to weaken through the
day, with secondary low development expected across parts of the
Southeast. A cold front will move through parts of GA and the
Carolinas through the period. Elsewhere, a mid/upper-level shortwave
trough will move quickly eastward from the Pacific Northwest towards
the northern Rockies and High Plains.

...Parts of GA into the Carolinas and southern Mid Atlantic...
Surface-based instability is expected to remain negligible during
the day along/ahead of the cold front moving across parts of the
Southeast. A weakly convective rain band (with little or no
lightning) may develop from late afternoon into the evening from GA
into the western Carolinas, as large-scale ascent increases and the
front encounters very modest elevated buoyancy (with MUCAPE likely
near or below 100 J/kg). Gusty winds may occur with this frontal
band as low/midlevel flow strengthens, though lingering low-level
stability is expected to limit potential for convectively enhanced
severe gusts at the surface.

Late Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, somewhat richer
low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s F) may spread across
coastal NC, as southerly low-level flow strengthens in response to
secondary surface-low development. Weak lapse rates will generally
limit buoyancy, but isolated and at least weakly organized cells
cannot be ruled out near the coast. At this time, most guidance
suggests that weak instability will tend to limit the
organized-severe threat. Farther north, sporadic lightning flashes
will also be possible with mainly elevated convection moving across
parts of the Mid Atlantic late in the period.

..Dean.. 10/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271032
SWODY2
SPC AC 271031

Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Ozarks to the southeast
Texas coast Tuesday. Severe potential is low.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough and jet streak will move out of the central
Plains into the mid MS Valley Tuesday before the upper trough
deepens into a closed low Tuesday night. As these upper-level
features intensify, a surface low will develop over the Red River
Valley and strengthen as it moves into the mid MS Valley early
Wednesday. Attendant to the surface low, a powerful cold front will
sweep eastward over much of the central and eastern US, reaching the
Gulf Coast by 00z Wednesday.

Southerly winds ahead of the cold front and surface low will briefly
allow some moisture return from east TX to southern MO. As cool
mid-level temperatures overspread the modestly moist air mass, weak
buoyancy is expected to develop. A few thunderstorms are possible
from southern MO, into AR and east TX ahead of the front. However,
forecast boundary layer moisture profiles are expected to be shallow
over much of the warm sector. This, along with poor mid-level lapse
rates and drier air approaching from the west will likely curtail
buoyancy (MUCAPE 500 J/kg or less) and storm intensity.

A stronger storm or two is possible over coastal southeast TX where
moisture will be somewhat deeper. An isolated strong gust or small
hail will be possible with any more robust storms able to persist.
However, poor lapse rates and the tendency for the cold front to
undercut convection suggests this risk will be limited.

Elsewhere, elevated instability may remain over the NC Outer Banks
as a weakening upper wave moves across the area, with moist easterly
winds wrapping moisture westward north of an offshore surface low.
Most model guidance shows storms remaining just offshore. However,
some inland lightning potential cannot be ruled out.

..Lyons.. 10/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271711
SWODY2
SPC AC 271709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX AREA SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Ozarks
into southeast Texas coast Tuesday. Small to marginally severe hail
may occur from southeast Texas into western Louisiana during the
late afternoon.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An intense midlevel jet will nose into the KS/OK region during the
day, with a deepening upper low dropping southeastward into AR. A
cold front will extend roughly from the ArkLaTex area southwestward
across eastern TX, with a inverted surface trough extending
northward across AR and MO where surface temperatures will be
cooler.

Ahead of the cold front, modest boundary layer heating along with
upper 60s/low 70s F dewpoints will lead to MLCAPE to around 1500
J/kg. Lapse rates aloft will not be very steep, but favorable lift
along the front should instigate a broken line of storms after 21Z
from near the AR/LA border southwestward into southeastern TX.
Deep-layer shear will be quite strong, especially in the mid to
upper levels, and this should favor cellular storm mode. Storms will
move quickly east/southeastward, with the stronger cells producing
small to perhaps marginally severe hail through early evening from
the upper TX Coast into perhaps central LA.

..Jewell.. 10/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281711
SWODY2
SPC AC 281710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts are possible late
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning across southeast Virginia
into northeast North Carolina.

...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic...

A deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will pivot east
across the Southeast, and approach the Atlantic coast, on Wednesday.
Strong southerly deep-layer flow is forecast ahead of this feature,
with a 500 mb jet streak near 90-110 kt. As the upper low shifts
east, a surface low over the TN Valley and attendant cold front will
develop east across AL/GA through 06z. A wedge front along/east of
the Appalachians will limit northward transport of Gulf moisture
into the Southeast ahead of this feature. Meager MUCAPE will support
low-topped convection near the cold front, with little to no
lightning activity expected. Gusty winds are possible across parts
of AL/GA/northern FL/SC with this activity, but poor low-level lapse
rates and very weak thermodynamic profiles will preclude severe
potential.

Overnight, the surface low will deepen over VA/NC and the wedge
front will lift north as a warm front into the Chesapeake Bay
vicinity. Southerly low-level winds between the eastward-advancing
cold front and south of the warm front will allow for development of
a narrow warm sector and low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move inland
across northeast NC/southeast VA. Thermodynamic profiles will remain
poor, but 40-50 kt southeasterly flow just above the surface amid low-topped/weak convection could allow for isolated strong to
locally severe gusts, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been
included with the Day 2 update.

..Leitman.. 10/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281805
SWODY2
SPC AC 281803

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT PROBABILITY LABEL

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts are possible late
Wednesday night/early Thursday morning across southeast Virginia
into northeast North Carolina.

...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic...

A deepening upper cyclone and attendant trough will pivot east
across the Southeast, and approach the Atlantic coast, on Wednesday.
Strong southerly deep-layer flow is forecast ahead of this feature,
with a 500 mb jet streak near 90-110 kt. As the upper low shifts
east, a surface low over the TN Valley and attendant cold front will
develop east across AL/GA through 06z. A wedge front along/east of
the Appalachians will limit northward transport of Gulf moisture
into the Southeast ahead of this feature. Meager MUCAPE will support
low-topped convection near the cold front, with little to no
lightning activity expected. Gusty winds are possible across parts
of AL/GA/northern FL/SC with this activity, but poor low-level lapse
rates and very weak thermodynamic profiles will preclude severe
potential.

Overnight, the surface low will deepen over VA/NC and the wedge
front will lift north as a warm front into the Chesapeake Bay
vicinity. Southerly low-level winds between the eastward-advancing
cold front and south of the warm front will allow for development of
a narrow warm sector and low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move inland
across northeast NC/southeast VA. Thermodynamic profiles will remain
poor, but 40-50 kt southeasterly flow just above the surface amid low-topped/weak convection could allow for isolated strong to
locally severe gusts, and a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been
included with the Day 2 update.

..Leitman.. 10/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290601
SWODY2
SPC AC 290559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL NC
INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated damaging-wind potential may occur
Thursday from coastal North Carolina into parts of the Mid Atlantic.

...Coastal NC into parts of the Mid Atlantic...
A Marginal Risk has been added for parts of coastal NC into the Mid
Atlantic, mainly for a continuation of a threat that may develop
late D1/Wednesday and continue into at least the first part of the
day on Thursday.

A mid/upper-level cyclone initially centered over the Ohio Valley
will move northeastward on Thursday, reaching parts of the Lower
Great Lakes by the end of the forecast period. An associated surface
low is forecast to deepen as it moves northeastward from parts of
VA/MD toward southern New England. A trailing cold front will sweep
through the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic, and eventually move into
parts of western New England by Friday morning.

Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning from coastal NC
into parts of the Mid Atlantic. There will be some potential early
in the period for near-surface-based convection within a favorably
sheared environment across coastal NC and far southeast VA, which
could be accompanied by strong/locally damaging gusts. A relatively
narrow warm sector (characterized by low 60s F dewpoints) will
spread northeastward through the day across parts of the Mid
Atlantic, in advance of the cold front. Muted diurnal heating and
weak lapse rates will tend to limit surface-based destabilization,
though relatively strong low-level flow could support some potential
for convectively augmented gusts with any deeper convection within
the warm sector.

There could also be some potential for modest storm organization
near the surface low across parts of southern/central PA and
vicinity if sufficient destabilization occurs, but guidance varies
considerably regarding the extent of heating and low-level moisture
return in this area.

..Dean.. 10/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291715
SWODY2
SPC AC 291714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with an isolated damaging wind/tornado threat may
occur Thursday from coastal North Carolina into parts of the Mid
Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will deepen as it moves from the central
Appalachians to the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday. A surface low
will deepen slightly as it moves up the eastern slopes of the
Appalachians. This will pull low-level moisture westward across
eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Eastern North Carolina into the Mid-Atlantic...
A line of strong to isolated severe storms will likely be ongoing at
the beginning of the period from eastern Pennsylvania into southern
Virginia. Ahead of this line of storms, weak instability is expected
to develop, potentially as far west as far northern Virginia and far
western Maryland. Have modified the western extent of this Marginal
Risk to account for the expected western/northern extent of the warm
sector ahead of the cold front. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be
the primary threat, but strong low-level shear may also support a
tornado.

...Western Pennsylvania...
Beneath the upper-level low, some isolated hail threat may exist
during the afternoon. Steepening mid-level lapse rates due to
cooling temperatures aloft will result in some instability during
the afternoon with sufficient shear for storm organization.
Extensive cloud cover should limit surface heating and thus the
threat for large hail. However, if some clearing/greater instability
can develop in a corridor across western Pennsylvania, a few
stronger storms may be capable of marginally severe hail. This trend
will be monitored for potential hail probabilities in later
outlooks.

..Bentley.. 10/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050633
SWODY2
SPC AC 050631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CST Wed Nov 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday or Thursday night.

...Discussion...
A progressive pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs will
be present across the Northwest to North-Central States on Thursday.
A pocket of cooler mid-level temperatures associated with one trough
may aid in very isolated thunderstorms across parts of the northern
Rockies. Farther west, a shortwave impulse should reach the WA coast
by late afternoon. This will support steepened lower-level lapse
rates and scant surface-based buoyancy within an onshore flow
regime. A few low-topped thunderstorms are possible in western WA,
which might contain small hail and locally strong gusts amid
moderate effective bulk shear.

Amplification of the broader flow regime in the North-Central States
on Thursday night will aid in a strengthening low-level warm
conveyor. Meager elevated buoyancy should develop from the Lower
MO/Mid-MS Valleys northeastward in the Midwest. General
thunderstorms are possible overnight into early morning Friday.

..Grams.. 11/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051728
SWODY2
SPC AC 051727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Wed Nov 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday or Thursday night.

...Discussion...
A progressive pattern with multiple embedded shortwave troughs will
be present across the Northwest to North-Central States on Thursday.
A pocket of cooler mid-level temperatures associated with one trough
may aid in very isolated thunderstorms across parts of the northern
Rockies. Farther west, a strong mid-level jet and associated
shortwave trough should reach the Washington coast by late
afternoon. Cooling temperatures aloft and some increasing moisture
amid onshore flow may result in a few low-topped thunderstorms.
Strong shear and strong flow below 1km would support an isolated
damaging wind threat, but instability appears too limited at this
time. In addition, some isolated storms may also persist inland
across northern Washington and perhaps into northern Idaho and far
northwest Montana on late Thursday night as the trough moves inland.

As a mid-level trough amplifies across the Plains on Thursday afternoon/evening, a surface low will slowly deepen as it moves from
the Upper Midwest to the northern Great Lakes. A strengthening
low-level jet ahead of the associated cold front will transport some
moisture northward across the Ozarks. As this moisture advects
northward, a few general storms may develop amid weak elevated
instability and isentropic ascent across parts of the Midwest.

..Bentley.. 11/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060632
SWODY2
SPC AC 060631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MIDDLE TN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly Friday midday to
evening, from the central Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. A mesoscale
corridor of more concentrated severe hail potential is forecast
across Middle Tennessee and south-central Kentucky.

...Synopsis...
An expansive mid/upper trough will dominate the Northwest to the
central and eventually eastern CONUS on Friday, with several
embedded shortwave impulses. One impulse with an attendant mid-level
jetlet will progress from the Lower MO Valley to the central
Appalachians. The trailing portion of a cold front, attendant to a
southeast Canadian cyclone, should extend across the Lower Great
Lakes to Mid-South by early evening.

...Central Gulf Coast to the OH Valley...
Midday to mid-afternoon convection should generally be focused
across both the far northern and far southern extents of the
highlighted level 1-MRGL risk area.

The northern one across the OH Valley will be within the primary
low-level warm conveyor ahead of the aforementioned cold front, as
meager surface-based instability develops southeast of morning
elevated convection. Fast low to mid-level flow will be sufficient
for mainly localized damaging winds as low-topped clusters push east
towards the central Appalachians.

The southern one will be across the central Gulf Coast region where
an uncapped boundary layer in conjunction with weak mid-level height falls/low-level warm theta-e advection should support isolated storm
coverage. While south of the 50+ kt mid-level westerlies over the
Mid-South/TN Valley, a couple supercells are possible.

Towards late afternoon and early evening, storm coverage may
increase southwestward from the OH Valley into the TN Valley. MLCAPE
will likely remain weak with rich low-level moisture remaining
confined to the southern Lower MS Valley. Still, strong deep-layer
shear and favorable hodograph elongation will yield supercell wind
profiles. Guidance does differ with the degree of storm coverage,
but enough signal exists for initial storms capable of severe hail
before potential clustering. Subsiding large-scale ascent and the
lack of greater instability should yield diminishing severe
potential Friday night in the Deep South.

..Grams.. 11/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111711
SWODY2
SPC AC 111710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
As an increasingly prominent blocking high evolves near the southern
Greenland Atlantic coast, it appears that broad mid/upper troughing
will generally be maintained across the Atlantic Seaboard into
Labrador Sea/Baffin Bay vicinity through this period, though
large-scale ridging inland of the Pacific coast may slowly expand
east of the Great Plains through Mississippi Valley. Upstream,
particularly across the western into central mid-latitude Pacific,
models indicate that flow will remain more progressive, with
building ridging on the leading edge of this regime shifting across
the central toward eastern Pacific. As this occurs, it appears that
an initially digging downstream trough across the eastern Pacific
will split while approaching the North American Pacific coast.

There appears increasing consensus within/among the model output
that forcing for ascent, associated with the most vigorous short
wave perturbation within the southern portion of the splitting
trough, will support significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis
late Wednesday through Wednesday night. The deepening,
northeastward migrating surface cyclone center may approach the
southern Oregon/northern California coast by 12Z Thursday, while the
mid-level cold core remains farther offshore--and generally slower
to approach the coast than suggested by prior guidance.

...Northern California...
Latest high resolution, convection allowing ensemble output, and
related guidance, suggests that the deepening surface cyclone might
include an evolving warm sector corridor becoming sufficiently
unstable to support a period of increasing pre-frontal thunderstorm
development Wednesday evening, initially 100-200+ miles offshore of
the northern California coast. Based on this same guidance, and
forecast soundings from the NAM and Rapid Refresh, it remains
unclear the extent to which thermodynamic profiles will remain
conducive to convection capable of produce lightning, as the
occluding cyclone/front approach coastal areas north of San
Francisco Bay overnight through 12Z Thursday. Activity will be
embedded within rather strong ambient wind fields, perhaps including
50-70 kt within the lowest kilometer or two above ground level.
However, weak CAPE and stable near-surface lapse rates across and
inland of coastal areas seem likely to limit the potential for
convectively augmented surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 11/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120549
SWODY2
SPC AC 120548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday or Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Very isolated thunderstorms remain possible, mainly across parts of
CA, on Thursday into Thursday night. The southern portion of a broad
upper trough will remain offshore of the CA coast through the
period. The low-level warm conveyor will be most pronounced Thursday
morning before waning somewhat as it gradually shifts southward in
CA. Mid-level lapse rates will remain weak to poor, but flimsy,
generally elevated buoyancy may sporadically develop within this
regime. Most CAM guidance suggests occasional bouts of more
pronounced low-topped convection should occur, supporting overall
thunder probabilities around 10 percent.

..Grams.. 11/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181718
SWODY2
SPC AC 181717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the southern
Plains tomorrow (Wednesday) evening into early Thursday morning.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will meander across the Southwest tomorrow
(Wednesday), which will encourage modest lee troughing and
subsequent low-level moisture return across the southern Plains.
Cooler temperatures aloft, associated with the aforementioned
trough, will overspread portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin
to the Four Corners, fostering weak buoyancy amid strong deep-layer
ascent to support isolated thunderstorm development. Across the
southern Plains, weak upper support from the approaching trough to
the West, gradually overspreading a low-level moist axis, will
support the development of widely scattered thunderstorms,
especially Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. A few of
these thunderstorms may be strong to potentially severe.

...Portions of the southern Plains...
During the late afternoon/early evening hours, a low-level warm-air
advection regime will become established across the southern Plains
by late afternoon. Low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints will advect north-northwestward as a 25-40 kt southerly 850 mb jet develops
across western into central TX. Upper support is expected to be
modest at best through at least the 00Z period, suggesting that
deep-moist convection should remain isolated through roughly the
first half of the period. However, increasing low-level convergence
with the strengthening low-level jet should support an increased
coverage of thunderstorms through the night across western into
central TX. Steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the moist
axis, resulting in over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE amid elongated hodographs,
which may support a few multicellular or even transient supercell
structures. Some of the stronger storms may be capable of producing
severe hail.

..Squitieri.. 11/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071731
SWODY2
SPC AC 071729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on
Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An amplified mid/upper-level trough initially extending from eastern
Canada into the Northeast and Ohio Valley will move eastward through
the period. A cold front will move through New England and the Mid
Atlantic during the day, and reach parts of the Southeast by
evening. In the wake of the trough, an upper-level ridge will begin
to amplify across parts of the southern/central Rockies and High
Plains. West of the amplifying ridge, a mid/upper-level trough will
deepen in place near the Pacific Coast and adjacent eastern Pacific,
as an embedded deep-layer cyclone moves southward off of the Pacific
Northwest coast.

...Northern Mid Atlantic into southern New England...
Low-topped convection will move through parts of the northern Mid
Atlantic and southern New England during the morning, in conjunction
with the cold front. While much of this convection may produce
little or no lightning, strong deep-layer flow and some enlargement
to low-level hodographs could support gusty winds and weak rotation
with the stronger convective elements. At this time, instability
appears too meager to support an organized severe threat.

...GA into the Carolinas and southeast VA...
Isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible during the
afternoon and evening from parts of GA into the Carolinas and
southeast VA, along and ahead of the cold front. Midlevel flow will
initially be modestly enhanced along the southern periphery of the
departing mid/upper-level trough, though may tend to weaken through
the day. With poor midlevel lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and
generally weakening low-level flow with time, organized severe
potential appears low, though locally gusty winds could accompany
the strongest storms.

...Eastern AZ into western NM...
Scattered afternoon/evening storms will be possible from eastern AZ
into western NM on Wednesday, potentially developing as far north as
the Four Corners region. Some warming of midlevel temperatures and
weakening of midlevel flow/deep-layer shear are expected compared to D1/Tuesday, due to the influence of the building upper ridge. This
should tend to limit storm organization and intensity, though
locally gusty winds and small hail will be possible.

..Dean.. 10/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080515
SWODY2
SPC AC 080514

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

An upper cyclone and attendant trough will persist near the Pacific
Coast on Thursday. Hurricane Priscilla is forecast by NHC to
generally move north/northwest, parallel to Baja. Moisture
associated with the hurricane will spread northward across the
Southwest, and eventually into the Great Basin. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible as increasing moisture support modest destabilization.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
Southeast as a surface cold front continue to develop southward
toward the Gulf Coast. Modest instability and weak shear will
support disorganized convection with little severe potential.

Late in the period, a vigorous upper shortwave trough will develop
southeast from the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Midwest.
Meager moisture return is expected across the MO Valley into the
Upper MS Valley, but may be sufficient for weak destabilization
within the warm advection early Friday morning to support isolated
elevated convection.

..Leitman.. 10/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211657
SWODY2
SPC AC 211655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...New England...
An occluded cyclone will steadily move northeast from the Lake Huron
vicinity into QC during the period. The low-level warm conveyor
ahead of the bent-back occluded front will pivot northeast across
and eventually out of New England through the day. Meager buoyancy
is anticipated where strong deep-layer shear can persist over
eastern/coastal New England midday into the afternoon. Scattered
low-topped showers should dominate, with isolated embedded
thunderstorms possible. Despite weak convective intensity, fast
low-level south-southeasterlies, mainly across ME, might foster a
few locally strong gusts.

...Southwest...
A compact shortwave trough moving across southern CA into the Lower
CO Valley will aid in scattered thunderstorms from the Sierra NV
Mountains to the Four Corners vicinity on Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Much of this activity should be high-based and low-topped
over lower elevations. Meager buoyancy and weak lower-level flow
will minimize severe potential. But a few locally strong gusts are
possible amid large surface temperature-dew point spreads.

..Grams.. 10/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220554
SWODY2
SPC AC 220552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible beginning late afternoon
Thursday across parts of the Southwest and continuing into Thursday
night over the southern Great Plains.

...Southern CO/eastern NM and west TX...
A compact shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley and Southwest is
forecast to move eastward reaching the southern Rockies and High
Plains by early Friday. Ahead of the trough, weak height falls and
enhanced westerly flow aloft will support modest lee cyclogenesis
across southern CO and eastern NM. Southerly low-level upslope flow
will transport modest moisture northward across the region allowing
for weak destabilization Thursday afternoon and evening.

As ascent moves over the moistening air mass, scattered
thunderstorms are expected along a Pacific Front from the Four
Corners across north-central NM by mid afternoon. Sufficient
deep-layer shear will exist for a few supercells capable of
producing isolated severe hail/wind beneath the cold core of the
upper trough. Farther south, where moisture content will be
significantly less, weak buoyancy atop dry low-levels may support
isolated severe gusts with any convection able to develop.

...TX Panhandle into central OK...
Southerly low-level flow ahead of the upper trough will advance a
warm front northward across the Red River toward the OK/KS border
through much of the day. An initially stubborn wedge of colder air
over the northern TX Panhandle and southwest KS, will slowly recede
allowing a plume of richer moisture to surge northward late in the
day as low-level isentropic ascent increases. Height falls from the
trough overspreading the area will support a 35-40 kt low-level jet,
increasing ascent across the eastern TX Panhandle into OK by early
evening and overnight. Cooling mid-level temperatures should allow
for elevated destabilization concurrent with increasing westerly
flow aloft. Numerous storms are likely, complicating the convective
mode, but MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and elongating hodographs may
support some organized supercells/multicells with hail potential
overnight.

..Lyons.. 10/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221729
SWODY2
SPC AC 221727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
CO/NM/OK/TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible from late afternoon Thursday
into Thursday night across parts of the southern Great Plains and
the Southwest.

...Synopsis...
A compact shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley will reach the
Four Corners vicinity before stalling early Friday, as a separate
impulse moves across northern Baja/Gulf of CA. This will reinforce a positive-tilt orientation to the broader trough and support only a
weak surface cyclone across NM into far west TX.

...TX Trans-Pecos to central OK...
While the overall synoptic pattern appears consistently forecast,
much spread exists across guidance with the degree of boundary-layer
moisture return northwestward from the TX Coastal Plain by late
afternoon/early evening Thursday. The more aggressive spectrum would
support potential for a couple mesoscale corridors of greater severe
hail probabilities, one in the TX South Plains and the other in the south-central OK vicinity. A few surface-based supercells may
develop in both regimes, despite the presence of mid-level ridging
in OK early and greater mid-level height falls occurring Thursday
night. The less aggressive/drier spectrum of guidance suggests
surface-based activity may be high-based with transient/weak
supercell structures evolving into a predominately messy cluster
mode, especially as elevated convective coverage increases greatly
with a strengthening low-level jet. A broad level 1-MRGL risk
appears to be the appropriate forecast at this time focused along
the convectively reinforced front from the Permian Basin to central
OK from late afternoon into Thursday night.

...Southern CO to central NM...
The lobe of strong large-ascent attendant to the compact shortwave
trough will overspread the Four Corners by midday, supporting
widespread afternoon thunderstorms downstream across southern CO
into northern NM. The mid-level speed max attendant to the trough
will be centered farther southeast across central NM. While buoyancy
will be weak, steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough
will support a corridor of favorable destabilization coincident with
at least moderate effective bulk shear. A few lower-end intensity
supercells should develop with marginally severe hail and locally
strong gusts as the primary threats.

..Grams.. 10/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300544
SWODY2
SPC AC 300542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel
cyclone will move northeastward across New England on Friday, in
conjunction with a deep surface low. Stable conditions in the wake
of this system and its attendant cold front will limit thunderstorm
potential through the period. Weak elevated convection may accompany
the midlevel cyclone across northern New England early in the day,
but buoyancy appears too weak/shallow for more than very
isolated/sporadic lightning flashes.

Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough will dig southeastward across
the Great Plains and upper MS Valley. Cold temperatures aloft
associated with this trough could support weak convection across
parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, but this convection is
generally expected to remain too shallow for thunderstorm
development. Weak low-level moisture return may commence near the TX
Gulf Coast by early Saturday morning, but forecast buoyancy is very
weak to negligible through the end of the period.

..Dean.. 10/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301651
SWODY2
SPC AC 301649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Discussion...
A large-scale trough will envelope much of the eastern CONUS on
Friday with 2 mid-level low centers across New England and the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, a strong area of low pressure will move
from northern Vermont toward New Brunswick/Nova Scotia. An occluded
front will extend east from this low where a strong cold front will
extend from the northern Atlantic to into the Caribbean and deep
into the Gulf. This deep frontal intrusion will result in cool, dry
continental air across much of the eastern CONUS. Cool air aloft
beneath each of the mid-level low pressure areas may result in some
convection, but this convection should remain too shallow for charge separation.

A low pressure center will move across the Rio Grande through the
period. This will result in some return flow across the western Gulf
and inland intrusion of better low-level moisture. However, the
early stages of this moisture return will be shallow, and therefore
no thunderstorm activity is anticipated.

..Bentley.. 10/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121649
SWODY2
SPC AC 121648

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
With a blocking high likely to be maintained near/offshore of the
Greenland Atlantic coast, there likely will be little change to the
large-scale pattern across eastern North America into the Atlantic
through this period. Upstream, flow is forecast to remain more
progressive, at least across the northern mid-latitudes of the
Pacific into North America.

Within the latter regime, models continue to indicate that the
northern portion of a splitting trough will advance inland of the
British Columbia and adjacent Pacific Northwest coast, providing
support for significant surface cyclogenesis across the Canadian
Prairies Thursday through Thursday night. Some deepening of surface
troughing to the lee of the Rockies appears possible as far south as
southern portions of the high plains. However, guidance suggests
that boundary-layer modification across the northwestern Gulf Basin
is not likely to yield a sufficiently moist return flow to support destabilization conducive to thunderstorm development, beneath a
warming mid-level environment across the southern Rockies through
Great Plains.

Across the southern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific, there
remains more notable spread within/among the model output concerning
the evolution of smaller-scale developments within the southern
portion of the splitting mid/upper troughing. However, it still
appears that an initially deep associated surface cyclone will
undergo rapid weakening offshore of the southern Oregon/northern
California coast, while the gradually warming mid-level cold core
continues to dig well offshore of the central/southern California
coast.

...California...
With the modifying and increasingly modest mid-level cold core
forecast to dig offshore, the development of thermodynamic profiles
potentially conducive to an appreciable risk for convection capable
of producing lightning (i.e., 10 percent or greater probabilities)
remains unclear. However, high resolution, convection allowing
ensemble output and related guidance suggest at least minimal,
though diminishing, probabilities for a few pre-frontal
thunderstorms may be maintained across and just inland of the
northern/central California coast at the outset of the period.

Despite the modest mid-level cooling, a narrow plume of better
low-level moisture return ahead of the occluding, inland advancing
frontal zone may contribute to weak CAPE and thermodynamic profiles
marginally conducive to charge separation in the more vigorous
convective development. Given the modest to weak mid/upper forcing
for ascent, and elevated nature of the potentially unstable
low-level moisture return above at least a shallow residual surface
stable layer across the interior valleys, HREF calibrated
thunderstorm probabilities appear overdone for Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. However, orographic forcing, aided by strong
southerly to southwesterly low-level flow impinging on the higher
terrain of the Siskiyous/Mount Shasta vicinity into the Sierra
Nevada, might contribute to convective development occasionally
becoming capable of producing lightning, perhaps most concentrated west/northwest of Lake Tahoe into the Yosemite vicinity.

..Kerr.. 11/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130622
SWODY2
SPC AC 130621

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night.

...Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential should remain negligible across the CONUS,
outside of coastal southern CA. A closed upper low will fully cutoff
from the westerlies by Friday night, offshore of southern CA.
Low-topped, elevated convection may increase with slight
strengthening of the low-level warm conveyor late as the low drifts
east. Mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and buoyancy should be
flimsy, likely supporting very isolated thunderstorm probabilities
near 10 percent.

..Grams.. 11/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131636
SWODY2
SPC AC 131634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Friday
through Friday night.

...Discussion...
A more prominent blocking regime centered across the northern
Atlantic continues to evolve. Models indicate that this will
include the development of a broad cyclonic regime centered across
the Canadian Maritimes by early Friday, which will persist through
the remainder of the period. Some amplification of large-scale
troughing extending southward offshore of the remainder of the
Atlantic Seaboard is forecast, downstream of a significant mid-level
trough and embedded cyclone migrating northeast and east of the
Canadian Maritimes, on the leading edge of a more progressive
regime.

Upstream, broad short wave ridging appears likely to shift inland of
the British Columbia coast, across and east of the Canadian/northern
U.S. Rockies, to the north of an increasingly cut-off low offshore
of the central and southern California coast.

Models continue to indicate that the modifying mid-level cold core
of the eastern Pacific low (including coldest 500 mb temperatures
warming above -24 C) will generally remain offshore through this
period. While it may tend to pivot away from coastal areas
near/south of San Francisco Bay, and slowly toward southern
California coastal areas Friday night, the leading edge of stronger
forcing for ascent/cooling aloft supportive of low-topped
thunderstorm development appears likely to remain well west of the
southern California coastal waters through 12Z Saturday.

Potential for thunderstorm development Friday through Friday night
appears largely confined to a plume of lower latitude eastern
Pacific moisture return, advecting ahead of the low into the
southern periphery of the stronger mid-latitude westerlies. Models
suggest that this may contribute to developing layers of weak
conditional instability rooted in the lower/mid-tropospheric, across
the southern California coast through portions of the southern
Sierra Nevada and Mojave Desert, Great Basin, northern Rockies, and
northern Great Plains. Weak convection becoming briefly capable of
producing a few lightning strikes may not be entirely out of the
question anywhere within this corridor. However, due to likely
sparse coverage and rather low predictability, probabilities for
thunderstorms still appear generally less than 10 percent.

..Kerr.. 11/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081724
SWODY2
SPC AC 081722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly southward off of
the Pacific Northwest coast on Thursday. The attendant large-scale
trough over the Pacific Coast and adjacent eastern Pacific will move
little during the period. Tropical Cyclone Priscilla is forecast to
move north-northwestward off of the Baja California coast, as it
becomes increasingly influenced by the western trough. Instability
will generally remain weak across the region, but increasing
moisture (associated in part with Priscilla) will support isolated
to scattered storms across a broad region of the Southwest and Great
Basin through the period.

A cold front will continue sagging southward across parts of the
Gulf Coast and FL Peninsula on Thursday. A midlevel shortwave trough
will move southeastward from the TN Valley into parts of AL/GA.
Lingering moisture/instability will support storm development across
FL, especially the eastern/southern peninsula. Isolated storms may
also develop in closer proximity to the approaching shortwave across
parts of south AL and the FL Panhandle.

A vigorous mid/upper-level low and attendant shortwave trough will
move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes region. Moisture return will be modest at best,
but may be sufficient for elevated convection to develop during the
evening, in advance of the approaching shortwave and upper low
across parts of MN/WI/Upper MI. Somewhat greater elevated buoyancy
may eventually evolve overnight from parts of IA into the lower MO
and upper MS Valley, which could result in at least isolated
development of elevated storms within a low-level warm-advection
regime.

..Dean.. 10/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090508
SWODY2
SPC AC 090507

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough just offshore from the Pacific Coast will move
inland on Friday. Meanwhile, the NHC has Tropical Storm Priscilla
weakening as it approaches Baja by early Saturday. Moisture
associated with Priscilla will stream northward across portions of
the Southwest and Great Basin. As the Pacific trough moves eastward
coincident with increasing moisture, isolated thunderstorms will be
possible from the Southwest into the Pacific Northwest/northern
Rockies. While enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will be in
place, weak instability will limit severe potential.

Further east, a shortwave upper trough over the Upper Midwest will
develop southeast across Great Lakes and Lower Ohio Valley. A
surface cold front will develop southeast across the Upper/Mid-MS
Valley in tandem with the shortwave trough. Modest boundary-layer
moisture ahead of the front will support weak destabilization
sufficient for isolated thunderstorms.

Additional isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL
Peninsula and northward near/just offshore the coastal Carolinas
within a moist and weakly unstable airmass. Poor lapse rates will
limit instability and severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 10/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091710
SWODY2
SPC AC 091708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible Friday into Friday
night.

...Southwest...
Scattered thunderstorms are probable on Friday afternoon and evening
across parts of the Southwest, as tropospheric moisture slowly
increases downstream of TC Priscilla. A morning rain swath along
with weakening mid-level lapse rates will limit overall instability
across the region. But a mesoscale corridor of greater
boundary-layer heating may occur outside of the more persistent
swath of cloudiness/rain that lingers through the day. This could be accompanied by moderate deep-layer shear that supports a storm or
two producing locally strong gusts.

...Elsewhere...
Poor lapse rates across the Southeast, along with weak buoyancy from
the Great Lakes to the Ozarks and in the Northwest, should support
only general thunderstorm activity. Coverage is expected to remain
mainly isolated, with scattered elevated storms probable Friday
morning in the MO vicinity and scattered surface-based storms in
south FL during the afternoon.

..Grams.. 10/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151703
SWODY2
SPC AC 151701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
possible on Thursday in the late afternoon across parts of the
central High Plains.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough over the West will lift northeastward across the
Rockies, with warming aloft across the Southwest. An embedded upper
low will move across WY and into ND, with the leading midlevel speed
max moving from CO into the Dakotas.

At the surface, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas,
western NE, and across northeast CO through late afternoon, with a
surface low deepening over the eastern Dakotas. A secondary low is
also expected over southeast CO.

Moisture return across the Plains will be limited by relatively dry trajectories, as an extensive surface ridge remains from the Great
Lakes into the Gulf. However, at least mid 50s F dewpoints appear
likely into the frontal zone, supporting marginal destabilization.

Heating and low-level lapse rates will be the strongest over the
central High Plains, with the most favorable instability for diurnal
storms in this region as well. MUCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range
appear likely at peak heating, with scattered cells developing
during the afternoon. Veering winds with height as well as
deep-layer effective shear over 50 kt may support a few supercells
producing hail over 1.00" diameter within a narrow zone.

Farther north, elevated instability will be maintained across the
northern Plains due to a broad area of 30-50 kt south/southwest
winds at 850 mb. Colder temperatures aloft over the northern High
Plains could support small non/severe hail at times as activity
develops ahead of the vorticity maximum.

..Jewell.. 10/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160538
SWODY2
SPC AC 160536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated hail and marginally severe wind gusts
will be possible from Friday evening through the overnight period
from the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the central Rockies on
Friday, as southwest flow remains in place over much of the Great
Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward
across the central Plains, as moisture advection continues ahead of
the front. Surface dewpoints near the boundary are expected to reach
the lower 60s F by Friday afternoon, which will contribute to weak destabilization from western Oklahoma northeastward into northwest
Missouri. Forecast soundings near the instability axis have MLCAPE
peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range during the evening. In
addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 35 to 45 knot range
along much of the front. The resulting environment could support
supercells with isolated large hail if discrete mode is favored.
However, lapse are expected to remain weak suggesting any severe
potential will remain marginal. A few severe wind gusts may occur as
low-level flow increases ahead of the front during the evening. With instability and deep-layer shear being sustained through the night,
a marginal severe threat should persist through late in the period.

..Broyles.. 10/16/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161641
SWODY2
SPC AC 161639

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated hail and marginally severe wind gusts
will be possible from Friday evening through the overnight period
from the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low will move northeast out of the northern Plains Friday,
with a positive-tilt trough extending southwestward across the
central Plains and into the Southwest. This trough will move slowly
eastward through the period, with a belt of southwest midlevel winds
increasing to 50 kt by Saturday morning over MO, KS and northern OK.

At the surface, a trough/wind shift will extend roughly from western
WI into central KS at 00Z, with 50s F dewpoints along and ahead of
it. Daytime heating near the boundary will yield 500 to perhaps 1000
J/kg MUCAPE, with deep-layer effective shear near 35 kt at 00Z.
Convergence near the boundary should support scattered thunderstorms
late in the day within the narrow uncapped zone from northwest OK
across KS and into northern MO/IA. Forecast soundings depict poor
lapse rates aloft, which will limit storm coverage and severity. But
marginal hail or gusts may occur with the strongest cells.

..Jewell.. 10/16/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230554
SWODY2
SPC AC 230553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms with damaging winds and hail are
possible centered over western and central Texas, from mid-afternoon
Friday into Friday night.

...Synopsis..
A broad, and somewhat disjointed positive-tilt upper trough with
multiple embedded impulses is forecast to move from the Southwest
and Southern Rockies into the Plains Friday and Friday night. As the
trough advances eastward, enhanced southwesterly flow will
overspread a moistening air mass across parts of western and central
TX into southern OK. A lee trough and cold front trailing a weak
surface low over the TX Panhandle will serve as a focus for
scattered storm development Friday afternoon and Friday evening
across much of the southern Pains.

...Trans Pecos into central TX...
Ahead of the southern most mid-level impulse, ascent will increase
through the day eroding weak inhibition over parts of southwestern
and central TX. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 60s
to low 70s F surface dewpoints westward, supporting moderate
destabilization over the Pecos Valley northward to the TX South
Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop along the lee
trough and advancing cold front by mid afternoon, spreading east
northeastward. Veering wind profiles with 40+ kt of deep-layer shear
should support a mix of supercells and clusters/line segments
capable of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.

Given the weak inhibition, persistent ascent, and increasing storm
coverage, upscale growth into a large MCS is likely across the
Edwards Plateau to central TX vicinity Friday night. This should
support a continued isolated severe wind/hail threat into the early
Saturday.

...TX Panhandle into southern OK and western North TX...
Farther north, uncertainty is much higher regarding surface-based destabilization. Scattered to widespread elevated convection will be
ongoing at 12Z Friday from the eastern TX Panhandle, Red River
Valley into KS, with remnant cloud cover likely to impact diurnal
heating. An east-west baroclinic boundary is likely to become
established serving as the northern effective limit for the
surface-based warm sector. As mid-level ascent increases, scattered
to numerous storms are likely to develop through the afternoon and
evening. Some of these storms may be elevated north of the boundary.
While a messy storm mode with numerous interactions are likely,
at-least isolated hail and damaging winds appear probable from the
eastern TX Panhandle across southeastern OK and North TX Friday and
Friday night.

..Lyons.. 10/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231724
SWODY2
SPC AC 231722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST/CENTRAL
TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from mid-afternoon
Friday into Friday night across west and central Texas. A few
tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur.

...Synopsis..
A broad, positive-tilt mid/upper trough consisting of multiple
embedded impulses will gradually progress east from the Southwest
onto the southern Great Plains. The piecemeal nature of the trough
will support only weak/disjointed surface low reflections that
should similarly slowly shift from west to central TX. Still, an
upper-level jet translating through the base of the trough across
northern Mexico will foster favorable large-scale ascent shifting
east over TX from Friday afternoon into early morning Saturday.

...TX...
Scattered to widespread elevated convection will be ongoing at 12Z
Friday across KS/OK, with more isolated/diminishing storms trailing southwestward into parts of west TX. Differential boundary-layer
heating in the wake of this morning activity should support a wavy
baroclinic zone across the southern TX Panhandle eastward along the
Red River vicinity. A plume of moderate MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
should become established to the south of the effective front
through the Trans-Pecos ahead of the dryline.

Timing of strengthening large-scale ascent in the afternoon is
somewhat nebulous, but guidance consensus suggests scattered
thunderstorms should form early and become widespread late. A
moderately favorable combination of steepened mid-level lapse rates
and southwesterly flow will support supercells, most likely across
the Trans-Pecos into the Low Rolling Plains. An amalgamation of
numerous interacting updrafts should yield a large MCS by evening.
This MCS should persist through Friday night into early morning
Saturday as it moves into central and eventually east TX. The
overall threat area will become more narrow overnight, but isolated
severe will remain possible.

Large hail should be more prevalent during the initial storm
development across west TX, but will remain possible through the
period. Broad, low-probability tornado potential will exist across
much of the warm sector/baroclinic zone, with greater chances across
the Edwards Plateau vicinity. Severe gusts/damaging winds should
maximize as the MCS matures across west into central TX.

..Grams.. 10/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 310557
SWODY2
SPC AC 310555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday across parts of the
western Gulf Coast, but no severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level low will move southeastward through the Upper Midwest on
Saturday, as an associated trough moves through the Ozarks and
western Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward through the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. A moist
airmass will be in place over the Texas Coastal Plain, where
isolated thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon and evening.
Instability is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat.
Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not
forecast Saturday and Saturday night.

..Broyles.. 10/31/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 311706
SWODY2
SPC AC 311705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to isolated severe storms capable of large hail will be
possible on Saturday late afternoon/evening across portions of
Coastal Texas.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will amplify as it moves across
the southern Plains on Saturday. A cold front will accompany this
trough and race south across Texas during the day. Low-level
moisture will remain mostly offshore, but at least some deeper
moisture may push a few counties inland across the Texas coastal
counties.

...Texas Coast...
Mostly weak instability is forecast to develop across coastal areas
of south and southeast Texas on Saturday morning and afternoon as
temperatures warm into the 70s with dewpoints potentially as high as
the low 60s. A significant warm nose between 850 and 700mb will
suppress convection for much of the day. However, by late
afternoon/early evening, as forcing increases ahead of the
approaching trough and with the southward moving cold front, expect
inhibition to erode and scattered thunderstorms to develop. The
greatest instability will likely remain offshore or right along the
coast. Therefore, there is a relatively limited areal extent for
storm maturity. Nonetheless, expect a few strong to isolated severe
supercells to develop right along the coast with large hail as the
primary threat.

..Bentley.. 10/31/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061725
SWODY2
SPC AC 061723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MIDDLE TN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly Friday midday to
evening, from the central Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. A mesoscale
corridor of more concentrated severe hail potential is forecast
across Middle Tennessee and south-central Kentucky.

...Synopsis...
A positively-tilted mid-level shortwave trough will move from the
northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic on Friday. Within this broader
trough, a northern jet streak/trough will move through the northern
Great Lakes with a southern stream in the Lower Ohio Valley. A
surface low will deepen slowly through the period across the
northern Great Lakes, ahead of the mid-level jet streak. A cold
front will extend from this surface low to the Ozarks Friday morning
and move quickly east through the day.

...TN/KY...
Low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the cold front on
Friday morning with 60F dewpoints potentially as far north as
southern Kentucky. The northern extent of the 60F dewpoints will
likely represent the northern extent of 250-500 J/kg MUCAPE and
better surface-based storm threat. A narrow corridor exists across
KY/TN where cooling mid-level temperatures will steepen lapse rates sufficiently in a region which also is under the influence of
relatively strong low-mid level flow. A stronger supercell or two
may develop within this region during the afternoon/early evening.

...MS/AL...
Greater instability is forecast across central/southern MS/AL where
upper 60s dewpoints and a mean mixing ratio of 13 to 14 g/kg is
forecast. Given the uncapped airmass and weak height falls across
the region, isolated to widely scattered storms are likely during
the afternoon/evening. Shear should be sufficient for storm
organization with any stronger updrafts that develop. However, warm temperatures aloft/weak lapse rates will likely limit more robust
storm development. Therefore, expect any severe weather threat to
remain marginal/isolated.

..Bentley.. 11/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070645
SWODY2
SPC AC 070644

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Fri Nov 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Saturday or Saturday night.

...Southeast...
Forcing for ascent appears nebulous during the day Saturday in the
wake of a shortwave trough shifting off the coastal Mid-Atlantic by
early afternoon. Minimal convergence is anticipated along the
stalled front from the Lower MS Valley to the Carolinas. Thunder
probabilities appear quite low on Saturday afternoon outside of the
north FL vicinity.

Guidance has largely trended towards yesterday's outlier GFS with
pervasive low RH in the mid-levels to the south-southeast of a
shortwave trough moving from the northern Great Plains to the Mid-MS
Valley and Midwest. The attendant surface cyclone track from the
Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes will remain displaced well
north of richer boundary-layer moisture that is confined along the
Gulf and south Atlantic Coasts. The remnant front over the Deep
South will begin to accelerate eastward Saturday night towards the
central Gulf Coast States. Weak mid-level lapse rates along the
front will hamper buoyancy, with isolated thunder possible towards
early morning Sunday. While small hail might accompany a cell or
two, the limited instability and progressive nature of the front
suggests a broad severe hail area is unwarranted. Additional
isolated storms may form in the Carolinas vicinity as a low-level
warm conveyor strengthens late. Suppressed MUCAPE here should limit
potential for severe hail, although small hail will be possible in
the deepest cores.

..Grams.. 11/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140533
SWODY2
SPC AC 140532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Showers and a few thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind
gusts across parts of the upper Ohio Valley Saturday evening.

...Upper Ohio Valley...

An upper ridge over from Ontario/Quebec into the Ohio Valley will
break down/shift east across the Northeast through Saturday evening
as a deepening shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes and
Midwest. At this occurs, a deepening surface low will pivot eastward
across southern Ontario and into New England by early Sunday
morning. A trailing cold front will develop southward across the
Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Northeast during the nighttime
hours. Ahead of this feature, southerly low-level flow will
transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward, with surface
dewpoints expected to mainly be in the 50s F.

Forecast soundings indicated meager instability may develop (less
than 500 J/kg) with cooler temperatures aloft in the 700-500 mb
layer. The lower troposphere thermodynamic profiles are somewhat
lackluster, with warmer 850-700 mb temperatures noted in both RAP
and NAM soundings, resulting in poor lapse rates. Nevertheless,
strengthening westerly flow in the lowest 3 km to around 40-50 kt
amid meager instability could result in isolated strong gusts for a
few hours during the evening before convection weakens with eastward
extent into the overnight hours.

...Coastal Southern CA...

An upper low offshore the southern CA coast will move inland on
Saturday. At the surface, a weak low and associated wind shift will
move inland in the 12-18z time period. Forecast soundings indicate
very meager surface-based instability will be present. Currently,
forecast guidance varies considerably, with RAP forecast soundings
showing virtually no surface-based instability compared to NAM
forecast soundings showing 100-300 J/kg SBCAPE, with HRRR forecast
soundings somewhere in between. Nevertheless, 30-40 kt flow in the
1-3 km layer could result in locally gusty winds, especially in
higher elevations through midday, with low-topped convective
elements.

..Leitman.. 11/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141712
SWODY2
SPC AC 141710

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Showers and a few thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind
gusts across parts of the upper Ohio Valley late Saturday afternoon
through Saturday evening.

...Discussion...
Although smaller-scale developments remain uncertain, latest model
output offers little change to prior runs concerning the large-scale
pattern evolution Saturday through Saturday night. It still appears
that a more progressive flow emanating from the northern
mid-latitude Pacific, including a prominent cyclone on its leading
edge, will begin to impinge on a blocked regime which has evolved
across parts of eastern North America into the Atlantic. The
cyclone is likely to undergo considerable deformation and weaken,
but an emerging mid-level perturbation is forecast to dig across the
upper through lower Great Lakes region, accompanied by secondary
surface cyclogenesis.

Upstream, the westerlies may undergo notable amplification,
including building ridging across and east of the Canadian and
northern U.S. Rockies, as well as across parts of the central into
eastern northern mid-latitude Pacific. In between the ridge axes,
models indicate that splitting troughing will progress across the
eastern mid-latitude Pacific. With the approach of the digging
southern portion of this trough, an initially cut-off low offshore
of the southern California/northern Baja coast is forecast to
accelerate into the Southwest late Saturday through Saturday night.

...Upper Ohio Valley...
Within the warm sector of the developing surface low, modest
low-level moisture return is forecast. Both NAM and Rapid Refresh
forecast soundings indicate that this will contribute to the
development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by at least weak conditional and convective instability in the lowest 5-6 km AGL,
becoming focused ahead of a southward advancing cold front, across
parts of the mid into upper Ohio Valley/Allegheny Plateau vicinity
by late Saturday afternoon.

Where the weak boundary-layer destabilization occurs, it appears
that a warm layer aloft may tend to suppress thunderstorm
development, and mid/upper forcing for ascent to overcome the
inhibition remains unclear due to model spread. However, there does
appear a general consensus for a pocket of modest mid-level cooling
across eastern Ohio into the western slopes of the Allegheny
Mountains late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. This may
be accompanied by the development of a relatively compact band of
stronger showers and thunderstorms, in the presence of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields (including 40-50 kt mean
west-northwesterly flow). Perhaps aided by latent cooling in
downdrafts associated with melting small hail, this activity may
contribute to the downward transfer of stronger winds to the
surface, before weakening will crossing the Allegheny Mountains
Saturday evening.

...Southwest...
It still appears that a pocket of colder mid-level air,
characterized by 500 mb temperatures as cold as near or just below
-20 C, will finally spread inland late Saturday through Saturday
night. These temperatures are generally on the warmer side compared
to cool season environments typically conducive to low-topped
convective capable of producing lightning across and inland of
Pacific coastal areas. However, it is possible that low-level
moisture return emanating from the lower latitude eastern Pacific
and Gulf of California may compensate and contribute to
thermodynamic profiles at least minimally sufficient for
thunderstorms. Even if this occurs, particularly near southern
California coastal areas, generally saturated profiles with very
weak CAPE, and low-level hodographs becoming modest to weak, seem
likely to minimize the risk for severe weather.

Otherwise, it might not be out of the question that preceding
elevated moisture return contributes to layers of weak conditional
instability minimally supportive of convection capable of producing
lightning across parts of the Mojave Desert/lower Colorado Valley
vicinity.

..Kerr.. 11/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100553
SWODY2
SPC AC 100552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Saturday across parts of the Intermountain West.

...Intermountain West...
At mid-levels, a trough will move into California from the eastern
Pacific on Saturday, as southwesterly flow remains over much of the Intermountain West. Mid-level heights will fall across much of the
region as the trough approaches during the day. At the surface, a
Pacific cold front will advance southeastward across south-central
Nevada and southern California. A moist axis will be in place early
in the day across eastern Nevada, but this feature will shift
eastward by afternoon. Along and near the moist axis, instability
will develop as surface temperatures warm. Scattered thunderstorms
appear likely to form in the afternoon from Utah into Arizona and
eastward to the Four Corners vicinity. RAP forecast soundings in the
mid to late afternoon ahead of the front across central Utah and
northern Arizona have MLCAPE around 500 J/kg, with 0-3 km lapse
rates around 8 C/km. In addition, moderate deep-layer shear is
forecast. This environment should be enough for an isolated severe
threat. The stronger storms may be capable of marginally severe wind
gusts and hail. The threat could persist into the early evening, in
areas that destabilize the most.

..Broyles.. 10/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101729
SWODY2
SPC AC 101728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN...THE CO PLATEAU...AND THE NC OUTER BANKS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon
into the evening across the eastern Great Basin and the Colorado
Plateau. A brief tornado and a severe gust are possible over the
Outer Banks of North Carolina during the early morning Sunday.

...Eastern Great Basin and the CO Plateau...
A broad upper trough will move east across the West as a basal
shortwave impulse ejects across the Great Basin during Saturday
afternoon and evening. This evolution will yield a swath of
strengthening mid/upper-level southwesterlies. This will be
favorably timed with peak surface heating across the eastern Great
Basin into parts of the CO Plateau.

In the wake of weak morning convection across parts of AZ across the
Four Corners, scattered to widespread convection will occur in the
afternoon along/ahead of the sharpening Pacific cold front as it
pushes east. While MLCAPE will remain weak, owing to progressively
poorer mid-level lapse rates with southeast extent and cooler
surface temperatures/dew points to the northwest, strengthening
deep-layer speed shear will yield elongation of a fairly
straight-line hodograph. A few supercells are likely, although the
weak mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy should support primarily a
marginal severe hail threat. A tornado is possible in the Four
Corners vicinity where boundary-layer moisture is greater. Given the
degree of convective coverage, upscale growth into
clusters/short-line segments should occur, fostering potential for
sporadic severe gusts into early/mid-evening across the CO Plateau.

...NC Outer Banks...
Morning NCEP guidance has trended closer to the coast with the
evolution of a gradually deepening surface cyclone off the South
Atlantic coast. This may result in the surface warm front advancing
across the Outer Banks between 06-12Z Sunday, with a conditionally
supportive environment for a surface-based supercell. While the bulk
of surface-based convection should remain confined offshore through
the period, there's enough signal to warrant a low-probability
threat of a brief tornado/severe gust.

..Grams.. 10/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170601
SWODY2
SPC AC 170600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of
the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.
Damaging winds, a few tornadoes and hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough over the central US is forecast to deepen
throughout Saturday as several peripheral shortwave features
coalesce over the central MS Valley. The most prominent of these
features will start the period over the southern Rockies before
phasing with the broader trough across the southern Plains Saturday
night. A powerful 100+ kt mid-level jet exiting the central
Rockies/High Plains will round the base of the consolidated trough
helping to rapidly deepen a surface low over the OH Valley and Lower
Great Lakes. A cold front with strong southerly flow ahead of it
will sweep eastward from the OH/MS Valleys into the Mid South
overnight supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms.

...Ohio Valley to the Ozarks...
Mid-level ascent with an embedded perturbation will expand over the
slow-moving cold front initially positioned from the Ozarks to the
Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley early Saturday. Southerly flow will
allow for substantial moistening as low to mid 60s F surface
dewpoints move northward across MO/IL, into western KY and OH and
eventually Lower MI. Continued low-level warm advection should
result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms along the front by mid
afternoon into the evening. While buoyancy should be limited
(500-1000 J/kg) owing to increasing storm coverage and cloud cover,
elongated mid/upper-level hodographs with largely unidirectional
shear will favor some potential for organized short line segments.
This activity should generally become more organized into the
afternoon/evening as the cold front strengthens and surges eastward
as the upper trough and surface low organize. This will support a
risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a couple embedded tornadoes
should a more coherent QLCS develop and persist overnight.

...Southern Plains to the Mid MS Valley...
Ahead of the primary southern stream shortwave trough, rich
low-level moisture will advect northward across parts of TX/OK into
the central and lower MS Valley. While some potential exists for
early morning convection to modulate the environment, current
guidance suggests diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE ~ 2000 J/kg) is
likely ahead of surface trough trailing the developing low farther
north. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the
afternoon from northern AR into eastern OK and North TX with the
potential for supercell structures capable of damaging gusts and
hail initially.

With time, the surface cold front over the southern Plains should
begin to surge eastward as the advancing shortwave trough phases
with the strengthening upper trough. Vertical shear will increase
substantially as the mid-level jet streak noses into the Mid South
fostering strong low-level mass response. The cold front will likely
outpace and overtake the surface trough and ongoing convection
supporting rapid upscale growth into a squall line across the
central MS Valley Saturday evening into the early overnight hours.
While uncertainty about the degree of instability given the
overnight timing remains, strengthening low-level wind fields and
mid 60s F dewpoints may delay boundary-layer decoupling long enough
to support a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat overnight as
the QLCS moves eastward.

..Lyons.. 10/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171733
SWODY2
SPC AC 171731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TOWARD THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of
the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid to lower Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys. Damaging winds, a few tornadoes and hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will move rapidly eastward across TX
and OK during the day, as a stronger wave digs into the central
Plains. These features will merge Saturday night as the upper trough
crosses the MS River, with a large area of height falls and
strengthening winds aloft expanding across the OH/TN Valley into
Sunday morning.

At the surface, a cold front will stretch roughly from the upper MS
Valley southwestward into northern OK at 18Z, with a plume of mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints already in place from eastern TX into OK and
possibly southeast KS/southwest MO. After 00Z, the cold front will
accelerate eastward, stretching from western OH into northern MS/LA
and into southeast TX.

The combination of increasing large-scale ascent as well as a
sufficiently unstable air mass with strong deep-layer shear should
result in widely scattered strong to severe storms beginning around
midday and persisting into the overnight hours.

...Eastern OK and TX into the Middle to Lower MS Valley...
A complex forecast scenario exists on Saturday with potential for
early day rain and thunderstorms, and uncertainties regarding
destabilization. In general, hail is possible over western areas,
with an increasing damaging wind threat farther east late.

Storms are likely to develop by midday ahead of the southern wave
with lift overspreading the moist plume. Cell producing hail appear
likely from northeast TX and OK, and also from northern AR into
southern MO within the moist plume. A few supercells will be
possible with 40+ kt deep-layer shear and stronger low-level shear.

Later in the afternoon and evening as the cold front overtakes the
air mass, an elongated area of storms with wind damage potential is
forecast, and this will push across the lower MS Valley. A tornado
or two may occur from LA into AR, though instability will become the
limiting factor farther east overnight.

..OH Valley/Midwest...
As the upper trough and surface low deepen overnight, wind fields
and shear profiles will increase ahead of the cold front. A forced
line of convection is possible across this region as dewpoints
remain in the lower 60s, and 850 mb winds increase to over 50 kt.
This could result in nocturnal damaging gusts or a QLCS tornado over
southeast IL, IN, northern KY and perhaps far western OH prior to
12Z.

..Jewell.. 10/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240558
SWODY2
SPC AC 240557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
into Saturday night, from southeast Texas to southern Louisiana.

...Synopsis...
A broad positive-tilt upper trough over the Rio Grande Valley will
gradually strengthen while moving eastward over central TX Saturday
through Saturday night. Ascent attendant to a strong embedded
shortwave/jet will round the base of the trough and overspread
robust moisture over the northwest Gulf Coast and lower MS Valley.
While early morning thunderstorms are likely to complicate the
forecast, a remnant outflow boundary may serve as a focus for
renewed severe storm development across southeast TX and LA Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night.

...TX/LA...
Early in the day, an expansive MCS is likely to be ongoing across east/southeast TX. This activity is likely to continue moving
southeastward toward the Gulf Coast, with an isolated wind and
tornado threat. In the wake of the MCS, outflow will stall and
gradually lift back northward, allowing for some air mass recovery
east of the dryline across far south TX. Low 70s F surface dewpoints
and strong heating should support moderate buoyancy by mid
afternoon. The approach of the basal shortwave and mid-level jet
will support additional storm development with veering wind profiles
and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear favoring supercells and organized
clusters. With most of the activity expected to occur along and
north of the recovering outflow, these storms may be elevated above
the surface. This would favor a risk mainly for large hail given
cool mid-level temperatures.

As forcing intensifies ahead of the deepening trough, upscale growth
is again expected late Saturday evening and overnight. An MCS may
develop and track eastward along the remnant outflow across
southeast TX into southern LA. A threat for damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes may continue overnight as surface moisture and low-level
shear remain stout beneath a strengthening low-level jet across the
Lower Sabine and MS Valley. While some uncertainty remains regarding destabilization, boundary layer separation is likely to be delayed
with continued low-level warm advection off the Gulf overnight.

..Lyons.. 10/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241727
SWODY2
SPC AC 241725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible tomorrow (Saturday),
across Texas into the Sabine River Valley. All severe hazards are
possible. A couple of severe gusts or a brief tornado are also
possible over parts of the Pacific Northwest.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the southern U.S., while an upper
troughs ejects into the Atlantic and a more pronounced, larger scale
upper trough impinges on the Interior West tomorrow (Saturday).
Ahead of the southern U.S. upper trough, low-level troughing will
encourage southerly return flow from the Gulf, resulting in airmass modification amid a warm-air/moisture advection regime. As upper
support from the aforementioned trough encourages deep-layer ascent
amid this moist airmass, thunderstorms will continue to develop
and/or persist across Texas into the Sabine River Valley. Given
adequate vertical wind shear accompanying this moist low-level
airmass, multiple rounds of strong to potentially severe storms are
likely. Strong flow aloft and associated vertical wind shear will
overspread the Pacific Northwest, amid scant buoyancy, to support
low-topped but potentially strong storms.

...Portions of Texas into the Sabine River Valley...
Thunderstorms (perhaps in the form of an MCS), should be ongoing at
the start of the period across TX, remnant from the Day 1 period.
These storms will be preceded by a moist low-level airmass (i.e. at
least mid to upper 60s F dewpoints), yielding 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE
given modest mid-level lapse rates. A 35-45 kt southerly low-level
jet will already be in place over eastern TX toward the Sabine River
Valley, which will promote sizeable, curved low-level hodographs. As
such, multicells and/or supercells embedded within this MCS will
support all hazards during the morning hours, with the best chance
for isolated tornadoes being with supercells that can remain
discrete. These storms will approach the Gulf shoreline by around
Noon, and are poised to weaken in the process.

The progression of the earlier storms complicates severe potential
for the central TX into the Sabine River Valley later Saturday into
Saturday night. This is when the primary wave will overspread the
region, coincident with strengthening and some eastward shift of the
low-level jet. At least one additional, pronounced round of
thunderstorms is expected to develop across central TX during the
afternoon, and progress across LA during the evening/overnight
hours. Should adequate airmass destabilization occur behind the
preceding round of storms, deep-layer and low-level shear will be
adequate to support supercell structures and subsequent upscale
growth into a QLCS. In addition to large hail (especially over
central TX), sizeable and curved low-level hodographs will support
tornado potential. The best chance for tornadoes with the second
round of storms will be over LA late Saturday, when the storms
traverse the low-level jet axis.

...Portions of the Pacific Northwest...
As broad and pronounced mid-level trough overspreads the Pacific
Northwest through the morning to late afternoon hours tomorrow
(Saturday), 80-100 kts of westerly mid-level flow will overspread
the region. Some forecast soundings indicate 50 kt westerly flow
extending as low as 700 mb in altitude, suggesting that little
mechanical downward momentum transport is needed to support strong
to potentially severe wind gusts. Strong deep-layer ascent, amid
scant but possibly adequate buoyancy, will encourage the development
of at least one (possibly multiple) low-topped convective bands.
These bands (regardless of lightning potential) may produce a couple
of severe gusts, especially over higher terrain, warranting the
introduction of Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities. Low-end
tornado probabilities have also been added to the OR coastline,
where a few low-topped supercells may promote a landfalling brief
tornado.

..Squitieri.. 10/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010559
SWODY2
SPC AC 010557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern
Florida Peninsula Sunday night, but no severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level low will move southeastward into the Gulf Coast states
on Sunday, as southwesterly flow remains over the Florida Peninsula.
At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over south Florida,
where surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to weak
instability. A mid-level trough will approach the Florida Peninsula
Sunday night. As large-scale ascent increases, isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across south Florida, mainly after
midnight. Instability is expected to be too weak for a severe
threat. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along the coast of North Carolina
Sunday night. Thunderstorms are not forecast across the remainder of
the continental U.S.

..Broyles.. 11/01/2025

$$

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