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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2104

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Sep 20 01:50:48 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 200150
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200150=20
    KSZ000-200345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2104
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0850 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

    Areas affected...Central and South Central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615...

    Valid 200150Z - 200345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms within WW 0615 are expected to
    persist for the next couple of hours, and maintain a threat for
    damaging straight-line winds and hail.

    DISCUSSION...A loose cluster of supercell thunderstorms continues south-southeastward across the western and central portions of WW
    0615. The 00Z DDC RAOB downstream of the current convection showed
    an unstable and uncapped airmass, approximately 40 kts of deep layer
    shear, and fairly substantial 0-3km SRH exceeding 200 m^2 / s^2.
    Though the nocturnal boundary layer has (and will continue) to
    stabilize, warm air advection influenced by a modest nocturnal
    low-level jet will continue to support elevated convection over the
    next couple of hours. This low-level jet is also influencing the
    low-level curvature of the hodograph, which will further support
    continued storm intensity through the maintenance of low-level and
    mid-level mesocyclones.=20

    Given the decrease in buoyancy with eastward extent, the expectation
    is that storm severity will also decrease with eastward extent. The
    primary threat will be for hail up to 1.75 inches, and 60 MPH winds.

    ..Halbert.. 09/20/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9-S9UqJAVX3mU2gtVeZcynfCSuLGYIAsa_RLve-nhkAKiFz4kUTdWhU_OQMQYFIuRurPZGCJJ= cgW9vNHW3GilzB-Qow$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 38870060 38970036 38989970 38969925 38809892 38359866
    38039854 37819849 37559869 37379909 37379957 37410010
    37470034 37620060 38160072 38530071 38710070 38870060=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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