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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2102

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Sep 19 21:46:14 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 192146
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192146=20
    WIZ000-192345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2102
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0446 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

    Areas affected...Central and Western Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 192146Z - 192345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms north of a surface warm front
    will continue to show intermittent strong to severe intensity. These
    storms ware capable primarily of winds near 60 MPH and hail
    generally less than 1.25 inches.

    DISCUSSION...The cluster of thunderstorms over central Wisconsin and
    into the Driftless region will continue to be capable of strong to
    severe intensity as they move parallel-to and north-of a surface
    warm frontal boundary extending from central Minnesota into the
    Chicago area. The environment is characterized by modest buoyancy 0f
    1000 J/kg MLCAPE, but with shear generally around the 20-25 kt
    range. Given the boundary-parallel storm motion and general lack of
    upper-level support, only transient periods of intensification and
    decay are expected. These storms could be capable of 60 MPH winds
    and up to 1.25 inch hail, with some reports of 0.75 inch hail
    already recorded.=20

    Some additional intensification and organization could occur through
    the early evening, primarily along and north of the warm front, due
    to some locally enhanced low-level storm relative helicity. This
    could result in brief periods of organization or even rotation, but
    the overall storm mode favoring thunderstorm clusters will result in unfavorable storm interactions that prevent prolonged
    intensification. No weather watch is expected at this time.

    ..Halbert/Bunting.. 09/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-gDwKZGt_TK8rntTWGRkIlOA7escnjnlawtIHN7npwWD5vWwi4pGCdKys0SfqIcpsR6Hh6zum= _TY0keQ1lLa5y7Dkno$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 43689070 44229169 44889192 45249192 45389144 45099065
    44668983 44378926 44198905 43928910 43628919 43468946
    43408994 43429007 43689070=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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