ACUS11 KWNS 181849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181848=20
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-182115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeastern California...southwestern Arizona...southern Nevada

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 181848Z - 182115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few stronger thunderstorms may produce localized
damaging wind and small hail this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...An extremely unseasonably moist air mass is in place
across portions of southern California into southern Arizona as the
remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continue to move inland. Dew
points are in the mid 60s to 70s across the California and Arizona
low deserts (with a dew point of 76 F noted in the observation from
Yuma, AZ).=20

A morning band of convection continues northward across southern
Nevada, with some increase in intensity over the last hour owing to
daytime heating, with around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE noted in surface
objective analysis from the RAP. Additional activity has begun to
develop south of this wave across the Mexico border and into
southern Arizona/California. In addition to the unseasonably moist
air mass, at least some weak shear for organization (25-30 kts) is
present across the deserts. This will support potential for a few
stronger storms and transient supercell structures with potential
for damaging wind and small hail. Overall, this risk appears to be
fairly localized and as such a watch is unlikely.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/18/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8wjpQmNtgGPeJIIrmyJdWY3FO-lBCxKJafRs1Vk9juontjTooiSr1cPmYoe0ISi-9JqWDcbTd= 6lStoa6_RyfkXcG9dk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...

LAT...LON 31871311 32831269 33521263 33841269 34081274 34441289
34701304 35361361 35411374 35541400 35591423 35581503
35521563 35451604 35301639 35071662 34841658 34481652
34301649 34081645 33841639 33561633 33331627 33151623
32851615 32641612 32541604 32501599 32501599 31871311=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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