ABNT20 KNHC 141139
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although dry
and stable air is expected to limit development during the next
couple of days, gradual development is anticipated thereafter, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter
part of this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph over the central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
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ABNT20 KNHC 151128
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The
disturbance will begin to move into a more favorable environment for development in the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week as the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 161140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
located about midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of
west Africa have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day
or two as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10
to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is producing
an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible towards the mid to latter
part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from
the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ABNT20 KNHC 171139
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Depression Seven, located in the central Tropical
Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just east and southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to
occur while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and
central portion of the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of
development, this system will likely bring areas of heavy rain
across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and Thursday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ABNT20 KNHC 181107
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located in the central Tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by
Friday morning. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the weekend through the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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ABNT20 KNHC 211147
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A broad tropical wave moving into the central tropical Atlantic
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorms well to
the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although environmental
conditions are not favorable for initial development of this system
over the next day or two, these conditions should gradually become
more favorable for development by the middle to latter part of this
week, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the central Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 221147
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic a few
hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde
Islands has increased since yesterday. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more favorable for development by tomorrow,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter
part of this week while while the system moves west-northwestward
to northwestward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

East of the Leeward Islands:
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for slow
development over the next few days as the wave moves quickly
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the latter part
of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn more
northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week
when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the
Bahamas. Regardless of development, gusty winds and showers are
expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ABNT20 KNHC 231128
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be favorable for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter half
of this week while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward into the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, and gusty winds across much of the Windward and
Leeward Islands. This wave is expected to move west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. The
system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it
reaches the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas late this week,
and a tropical depression could form when the disturbance is in that
region. Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 241143
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for further development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form later today or Thursday
while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the
western tropical Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
A tropical wave over the northeastern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to
move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall
and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and
across the Dominican Republic beginning tonight. The system is then
expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the
southwestern Atlantic late this week. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be more conducive for development in a few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form when the disturbance is in the
vicinity of the Bahamas. Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to perform a system survey
this afternoon to gather data from the surrounding environment, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly
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ABNT20 KNHC 251131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic, and on
Tropical Storm Humberto, located several hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

Central Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds across portions of the Dominican
Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. An area of low pressure
is expected to form along the wave tonight or early Friday when it
moves near the southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become
a tropical depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and
northwest Bahamas in a couple of days. Interests in the Dominican
Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system as heavy rains and gusty
winds are likely across that region regardless of development.
Interests along the coast of the southeastern United States should
also monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Humberto are issued under WMO header
WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Humberto are issued under WMO header
WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart
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ABNT20 KNHC 261122
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, near the eastern Azores, and on
recently upgraded Hurricane Humberto, over the subtropical central
Atlantic.

Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located near Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba. An area of low pressure
is expected to form along the wave by tonight when it moves near the
southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical
depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest
Bahamas over the weekend, and then track northwestward or northward
over the southwestern Atlantic.

Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are ongoing
in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and are likely to spread across the Bahamas and eastern Cuba during
the next day or two. Interests in all of these areas should monitor
the progress of the system. While there remains considerable
uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system,
there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge
impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week.
Interests in this area should also monitor the progress of the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 271154
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located over the subtropical central Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Nine, located near eastern Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine are issued
under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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ABNT20 KNHC 281110
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Nine, centered just south of the central Bahamas, and on
Hurricane Humberto, located over the southwestern subtropical
Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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ABNT20 KNHC 301144
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Imelda, located several hundred miles west-southwest of
Bermuda, and on Hurricane Humberto, located a few hundred miles
west of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
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ABNT20 KNHC 011143
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Imelda, located several hundred miles west-southwest of Bermuda, and
on Hurricane Humberto, located a few hundred miles northwest of
Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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ABNT20 KNHC 021143
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Imelda, located east of Bermuda.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure may form along a remnant frontal boundary
near the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida over the next
couple of days. Any additional development is expected to be slow
to occur as the system moves northwestward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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