ACUS11 KWNS 012157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012156=20 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-02000=
0-

Mesoscale Discussion 1537
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Areas affected...Middle Atlantic and southern New England

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481...

Valid 012156Z - 020000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat continues with convection across the
Middle Atlantic into southern New England early this evening.

DISCUSSION...Weak disturbance that tracked along the OH River has
advanced into eastern PA, very near the NJ border. Organized
convection continues just ahead of this feature, and new scattered
robust updrafts are maturing across the southern Delmarva. Modest
southwesterly flow favors this activity propagating off the Middle
Atlantic Coast later this evening. Until then, a narrow corridor of
strong instability extends across the southern Delmarva toward
western Long Island, with moderate buoyancy into southern New
England where surface temperatures have warmed into the upper
80s/lower 90s. This zone of instability will prove favorable robust
updrafts capable of generating damaging winds.

..Darrow.. 07/01/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6rE_uj6zA2g7ikAETCSNMD_Gr5Jo2qMSw3RyqHwDvlEYeeoUULGmCuNeQuv39dsZkEfxA-Uvp= A8iMEcSLaGOj1vMXCE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 42517144 41907108 40527340 37827558 37437798 38197828
39407619 41227492 42517144=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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