ACUS11 KWNS 011629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011628=20
NHZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-011830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1530
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Northeast and southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 011628Z - 011830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat from strong gusts is
anticipated this afternoon across parts of the Northeast into
southern New England. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is possible
if a more concentrated corridor of damaging winds becomes apparent.

DISCUSSION...To the north of the favored region for scattered
damaging winds across southern PA/NJ this afternoon, a more isolated
and lower intensity threat is anticipated. With somewhat cooler
surface temperatures, outside of the Lower Hudson Valley, amid
similarly weak mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE is expected to be more
muted. But moderate to strong mid/upper-level speed shear will favor
potential for semi-discrete convection and transient mid-level
rotation, capable of small hail and generally isolated damaging
winds. Bulk of morning guidance suggests a combination of lesser
storm coverage and instability should modulate the overall wind
threat. It is possible though that an uptick in convective intensity
might occur if a cluster can approach the Lower Hudson Valley to
southwest New England vicinity later this afternoon.

..Grams/Mosier.. 07/01/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4LGyyZTTUoBuDfaBmwV-C9tJ75NzGIdq3ORTcb41uhMkiko5aFcZbR0gis-4u2WzF5dJSKdaX= 29sltP0wqHNeVKL-vA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 41707661 42267701 43167632 43497486 43237208 42247188
41297277 41707661=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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