:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 03-May 05 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 03-May 05 2025

May 03 May 04 May 05
00-03UT 5.00 (G1) 3.67 3.67
03-06UT 5.00 (G1) 3.67 3.67
06-09UT 3.67 2.67 4.00
09-12UT 3.67 2.67 3.67
12-15UT 3.33 2.67 3.00
15-18UT 3.00 2.67 2.67
18-21UT 3.00 2.33 2.33
21-00UT 2.33 3.00 2.67

Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) intervals are expected early on 03 May
due to negative polarity CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 03-May 05 2025

May 03 May 04 May 05
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 03-May 05 2025

May 03 May 04 May 05
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through 05 May.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 06-May 08 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 06-May 08 2025

May 06 May 07 May 08
00-03UT 5.00 (G1) 3.67 2.67
03-06UT 4.33 4.00 2.33
06-09UT 3.67 3.00 2.67
09-12UT 3.00 2.33 2.33
12-15UT 2.67 2.67 2.00
15-18UT 2.33 2.00 2.00
18-21UT 2.67 3.00 2.33
21-00UT 3.00 2.33 2.67

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 06 May, and active levels on 07 May, due to sustained negative polarity CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 06-May 08 2025

May 06 May 07 May 08
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 06-May 08 2025

May 06 May 07 May 08
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for
M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity through 08 May.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 09 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 09-May 11 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 09-May 11 2025

May 09 May 10 May 11
00-03UT 3.33 3.67 3.00
03-06UT 3.67 3.00 3.67
06-09UT 3.67 2.67 2.67
09-12UT 3.67 2.00 2.00
12-15UT 3.67 2.67 2.00
15-18UT 4.00 2.00 2.67
18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.67
21-00UT 4.00 2.67 2.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 09 May due to the onset
of another negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible glancing
blow CME from 05 May.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 09-May 11 2025

May 09 May 10 May 11
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 09-May 11 2025

May 09 May 10 May 11
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 09-11 May.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 12-May 14 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 12-May 14 2025

May 12 May 13 May 14
00-03UT 4.00 2.67 2.33
03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 2.67
06-09UT 3.33 2.67 2.33
09-12UT 3.00 2.67 2.33
12-15UT 2.67 1.67 2.67
15-18UT 3.67 1.67 2.33
18-21UT 2.67 3.00 2.33
21-00UT 2.67 2.67 2.00

Rationale: An isolated period of G1 (Minor) conditions are expected on
12 May as negative polarity CH HSS influences linger yet diminish.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 12-May 14 2025

May 12 May 13 May 14
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 12 2025 0001 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 12-May 14 2025

May 12 May 13 May 14
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 15-May 17 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 15-May 17 2025

May 15 May 16 May 17
00-03UT 2.33 2.33 3.33
03-06UT 2.33 2.33 2.00
06-09UT 2.67 2.33 2.00
09-12UT 2.67 1.67 3.00
12-15UT 2.00 2.33 3.00
15-18UT 2.67 2.33 3.67
18-21UT 3.67 2.00 3.33
21-00UT 3.00 2.33 3.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 15-May 17 2025

May 15 May 16 May 17
S1 or greater 10% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 14 2025 0825 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 15-May 17 2025

May 15 May 16 May 17
R1-R2 75% 75% 75%
R3 or greater 30% 30% 30%

Rationale: Given the magnetic complexity of Region 4087, theres a 75%
chance that M-Class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) level flare activity will
occur through 17 May with a 30% chance for X-Class (R3-Strong) levels
during the same time.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 18-May 20 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 18-May 20 2025

May 18 May 19 May 20
00-03UT 3.67 4.67 (G1) 3.67
03-06UT 3.67 5.00 (G1) 2.67
06-09UT 4.00 4.67 (G1) 3.00
09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 4.33 2.67
12-15UT 3.67 3.67 3.00
15-18UT 4.33 4.00 3.33
18-21UT 4.67 (G1) 4.00 3.33
21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 3.00

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on 18-19 May due
to influence form a positive polarity CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 18-May 20 2025

May 18 May 19 May 20
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 18-May 20 2025

May 18 May 19 May 20
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: There exists a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 18-20 May.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 21-May 23 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 21-May 23 2025

May 21 May 22 May 23
00-03UT 2.67 2.67 2.00
03-06UT 3.33 2.00 2.00
06-09UT 2.67 2.33 1.67
09-12UT 2.00 2.33 2.67
12-15UT 3.33 2.33 2.67
15-18UT 3.00 2.33 4.00
18-21UT 1.67 2.33 2.67
21-00UT 2.00 2.67 2.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active levels are expected through 23 May due to persistent
CH HSS activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 21-May 23 2025

May 21 May 22 May 23
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 21-May 23 2025

May 21 May 22 May 23
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: Solar flare activity is expected to remain low as most
regions on the disk are fairly simple in their magnetic complexities.
There remains a 35% chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) and a 5% chance
for R3 (Strong) activity through 23 May.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 May 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 24-May 26 2025 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 24-May 26 2025

May 24 May 25 May 26
00-03UT 2.33 2.00 2.00
03-06UT 2.67 2.33 2.33
06-09UT 3.00 3.00 3.00
09-12UT 3.67 3.67 3.67
12-15UT 3.00 3.00 3.00
15-18UT 2.33 2.33 2.33
18-21UT 1.67 2.33 2.33
21-00UT 1.67 1.67 1.67

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 24-May 26 2025

May 24 May 25 May 26
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 24-May 26 2025

May 24 May 25 May 26
R1-R2 25% 25% 25%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: There exists a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 24-26 May.



--- MBSE BBS v1.1.1 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)